Net farm income - which is a broad measure of profits in the agricultural economy, according to the agency - is forecast to reach $136.9 billion in 2023 in nominal dollars, down nearly 16% from a year earlier.
The agency said the drop follows 2022 net farm income hitting a high of $162.7 billion, in nominal dollars, and $140.9 billion in 2021.
When adjusted for inflation, net farm income is forecast to fall $30.5 billion, or 18.2%, in 2023 compared with a year earlier.
Still, the USDA noted, this year's net farm income is expected to be nearly 27% above its 20-year average, in inflation-adjusted dollars.
While farm sector debt is forecast to continue to increase, so is farm equity, mostly due to rising land and equipment values, said USDA Economic Research Service economist Carrie Litkowski.