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A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. Markets have seen some seismic shifts in recent weeks after being forced to adjust to the 'higher for longer' mantra propagated by major central banks. "I don't think we're back to the point where these central banks will start tightening again..but if you are a central banker, especially of an oil importing country, you do become more cautious." On the other hand, a select number of central banks in emerging markets were still in hiking mode. Turkey, which is struggling with inflation pressures and a currency that is sliding from one record low to the next, delivered another bumper 500 bps rate hike.
Persons: Heiko Becker, Bjoern, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Sumanta Sen, Christina Fincher Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, DWS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Central, America, Europe, Sweden, Norway, Australia, Canada, Japan, Brazil, Chile, Poland, Hungary, Turkey, Russia, Thailand, London, Mumbai
Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. The yen eased to 149.83 per dollar, its weakest in more than 11 months, moving ever closer to the 150 mark that some traders believe could prompt intervention by Tokyo to support the currency. "If the yen breaks 150 per dollar, which I think is likely, and verbal intervention is not followed by action then we could see dollar-yen at 155." In the broader currency market, sterling was last 0.4% lower at $1.2158, having slid nearly 4% against the dollar in the third quarter. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar slid 0.6% to $0.6395, while the New Zealand dollar edged 0.4% lower to $0.5972, as traders looked ahead to rate decisions from their respective central banks this week.
Persons: Florence Lo, Dane Cekov, Shunichi Suzuki, Jarrod Kerr, Nordea's Cekov, bitcoin, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Simon Cameron, Moore, Emelia, Alex Richardson Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Japan's, Finance, Congress, Democratic, Australian, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Britain, U.S
The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing's determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. Many central banks target 2% inflation; market gauges of traders' long-term U.S. and European inflation expectations are running higher , . Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute, said Sino-U.S. tensions, provide a "new lens" through which to analyse emerging markets' growth prospects. But the performance of big U.S. tech stocks and global share indices are vulnerable to signs of Chinese retaliation. With China underperforming global stocks, investors are split on how to approach this market.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs, Wouter Sturkenboom, Laura Alfaro, Anna Rosenberg, Christopher Rossbach, J, Stern, Carole Madjo, Wendy Liu, Baird, Patrick Spencer, Naomi Rovnick, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima, Vineet, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Reuters, Research, Harvard Business, Amundi Investment Institute, INDIA RUSH, Barclays reckons, EU, Apple, China, Barclays, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: West, China, Washington, Western, Germany, Northern, Europe, FRIENDSHORING Washington, Vietnam, Mexico, Mongolia, Philippines, Sino, U.S, India, Beijing, COVID, CHINA
The world's top importing region saw arrivals of 24.95 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, down from August's 25.22 million bpd, according to data complied by LSEG. September's imports were also almost 3 million bpd weaker than the 27.92 million bpd seen in July, which was the highest monthly total so far in 2023. China imported 11.53 million bpd in September, down from August's 12.49 million bpd, according to LSEG data. Russia was China's top supplier in September, providing 1.81 million bpd, eclipsing the 1.44 million bpd from Saudi Arabia. The main question for Asia's oil demand in the fourth quarter is just how hard the recent price rally will bite demand.
Persons: Vietnam's, China doesn't, Asia's, Jamie Freed Organizations: LSEG, Imports, Reliance Industries, SK Energy's Ulsan, Taiwan's CPC, Brent, U.S, world's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, August's, Jamnagar, India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Asia, CHINA, China, Russia, Iran
Stocks had their worst month of 2023 in September. These four charts sum up a rough month for the market. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The end of the third quarter does tend to be a miserable time for stocks – leading to traders coining the term "September Effect". Higher benchmark oil prices tend to be bad news for inflation gauges, because they have the knock-on effect of driving up the cost of everyday products – especially gasoline.
Persons: Stocks, , Tesla, Henry Allen, Jerome Powell Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Dow Jones, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Big Tech, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve, Traders, West Texas
Morning Bid: Markets strap in for PMI data dump
  + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A round of purchasing managers index (PMI) data from across the globe continues with Europe on Monday, following Chinese PMI data over the weekend that pointed to mixed levels of services and manufacturing activity last month. Markets have been feeling the pain after stocks, bonds and non-dollar currencies around the world mostly fell in the previous month, as investors adjusted to the idea that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer. Meanwhile, the euro zone has been grappling with recession jitters amid a slew of other indicators, putting a damper on last week's good news that inflation in the area fell to its lowest in two years. Monday's final manufacturing PMI data from the EU will be closely watched after the preliminary report last month painted a mixed picture of the region's economic health; the index showed a rise in September from August's 33-month low, yet still lingered below the mark separating expansion from contraction. Meanwhile, oil prices are up again on Monday, reversing some of Friday's losses.
Persons: Brigid Riley, Luis de Guindos, Michael Barr, John Williams, Patrick Harker, Loretta Mester, Muralikumar Organizations: PMI, August's, Federal, Reuters, ECB, NY, Philly Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Europe, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, Cleveland
Reuters Graphics"There is a reckoning that interest rates are going to be higher for much longer, which has been the bearish element in the precious market. Gold prices could go below $1,800 in the near-term," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. The appreciation of the U.S. dollar may not end anytime soon, pressuring the gold market." Traders are pricing in a 55% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates at the current range of 5.25%-5.50% this year, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Since powering above the key $2,000-per-ounce level in early May, gold prices have fallen more than 11%, or $230, pressured by a sharp rise in benchmark U.S. Treasury yields, which makes the non-yielding gold less attractive.
Persons: Silver, Fed's Bowman, Jim Wyckoff, Michelle Bowman, Tai Wong, Jerome Powell's, Ashitha, Nick Macfie, Christina Fincher Organizations: Reuters, Kitco Metals, U.S, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York, Bengaluru
Oct 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Investors in Asia are also awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest policy decision and guidance on Tuesday. But it is the relentless rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar that will set the tone across the region. But the yen continues to slide, suggesting it is still being driven by U.S. yields and the dollar side of the equation. All but two of 32 economists in a Sept. 27-28 poll expected the RBA to hold its official cash rate steady.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Deepa Babington Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Reserve Bank, Australia's, Bank of Japan, Aussie, ., Reserve Bank of Australia, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, U.S, Japan, Tokyo, Australia, PMIs, South Korea
Oct 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But Chinese purchasing managers index data over the weekend, which pointed to mixed levels of services and manufacturing activity last month, may put a dampener on that. Investors will be looking to start the fourth quarter on a positive note after a pretty awful third quarter. Monday's batch of PMI reports include the latest snapshots from Australia, Japan and Indonesia, while Japan's closely watched 'tankan' survey of business sentiment and activity will also be released. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Reserve Bank of India are all expected to keep their key interest rates on hold at 4.10%, 5.5% and 6.5%, respectively.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Japan's, Richard Chang Organizations: U.S . Congress, PMI, Golden, Monetary, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New, Reserve Bank of, Bank of Japan, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Beijing, Australia, Japan, Indonesia, India, New Zealand, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Reserve Bank of India
Central banks around the world are raising interest rates up from 5,000-year lows, and that's ushering in the end of abnormally high returns for stocks and bonds. In the prior decade, deflation assets like bonds and tech gained about 10%, while inflation assets such as cash, commodities, and value gained 6%. Central bank policyThe backdrop to all this has been the actions taken by global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve. But as with other dominant themes of the 2010s, the monetary excess of central bankers is set to be replaced. The combination of central banks' monetary excess and governments' fiscal excess of the last three years has pushed nominal US GDP 40% higher since its pandemic low in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Persons: , BofA, It's Organizations: Bank of America, Service, European Union, St, Bank of America US, US Federal Reserve Locations: Ukraine, Central
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner speaks during a session of the lower house of parliament, Bundestag, at the Reichstag building, in Berlin, Germany September 27, 2023. REUTERS/Liesa Johannssen/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Germany has welcomed a show of support from China for the G20 debt restructuring framework for poorer countries in a joint statement after their financial dialogue in Frankfurt over the weekend. Neither provided further details on the rules for the restructuring plans and the joint statement did not give specifics. "This creates opportunities on both sides for more responsible trade and investment," German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said on Sunday. The meeting took place in Frankfurt, as Germany want to further strengthen this city as an European hub for financial services, the finance minister said.
Persons: Christian Lindner, Liesa, Sunday's, Lindner, ” Lindner, Maria Martinez, Alison Williams Organizations: Bundestag, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, China, Frankfurt, Africa, Asia, Beijing, European
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. "The big fear has been that we may not be at peak interest rates and that we may still be grappling with inflation. "The result is that interest rates are down across the U.S. Treasury yield curve. U.S. Treasury yields slid after the inflation reading with benchmark 10-year notes down 7.1 basis points to 4.526%, from 4.597% late on Thursday. Earlier it had ticked higher with help from the retreating dollar and Treasury yields after the inflation data, but bullion was still on track for monthly and quarterly declines on prospects of higher U.S. interest rates.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Brian Levitt, Sterling, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Naomi Rovnick, Ankur Banerjee, Alexander Smith, Anil D'Silva, Barbara Lewis, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, U.S, Traders, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, United, China, New York, London, Singapore
During the third quarter, U.S. dealmaking contributed to a larger-than-usual share of global activity and offset a decline in volumes in Europe and Asia Pacific, accounting for about half of global volumes. Deal volumes in Europe and Asia Pacific fell 31% and 9%, respectively. To date, private equity deal volumes have slumped 48% to $313.73 billion, compared to the same period last year. Deal activity driven by activist shareholders was muted as several big-name activists reached settlements with corporate boardrooms. Dealmaking in technology, which typically accounts for the largest share of deal volumes, has fallen 51% so far this year.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, dealmaking, We're, Melissa Sawyer, Sullivan, Cromwell, dealmakers, headwinds, Tony Kim, Roark Capital's, , Andre Kelleners, Goldman Sachs, Naveen Nataraj, Kappa, WestRock, it’s, Rob Kindler, Weiss, Garrison, it'll, Anton Sahazizian, Anirban Sen, Timothy Gardner Organizations: REUTERS, Cromwell LLP, Asia Pacific, Investment, U.S . Steel, Centerview Partners, U.S . Investment, Evercore Inc, Cisco, Splunk Inc, Fidelity National Information Services, Reuters, Paul, Moelis, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, Europe, Asia, Cleveland, Rifkind, Wharton, New York, London
According to LSEG data, global bond funds suffered disposals of $3.25 billion on a net basis, compared with $2.29 billion worth of net purchases in the week before. High-yield bond funds booked $3.11 billion of net selling during the week, the biggest outflow in six months. Investors also shed $300 million worth of corporate bond funds while pouring about $2.35 million into government bond funds. Data showed global equity funds experienced a net $10.7 billion worth of outflow, the biggest in a week since Aug. 23. Data for emerging markets comprising 28,251 funds showed that equity funds’ outflows stood at $3.7 billion, the highest since June 7.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, outflows, ’ outflows Organizations: Reuters, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Investors, Locations: New York City, U.S, outflows, outgo
Markets in Q3: Gains, pains and oil reigns
  + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery are seen just after sunset, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. Gold has lost its shine too meaning that only oil and gas, cash and the dollar have proved reliably profitable. “If you are going above $100 a barrel and staying there you are starting to create that inflation narrative again”. Athens’ main stock market is up 26.5% this year, even if it is down 11% since July. “The comforting news for Q4 though is that we should be close to peak (global) interest rates,” Metcalfe said.
Persons: Christian Hartmann, It’s, Salman Ahmed, Japan’s, , Robert Alster, El Salvador’s, Tayyip Erdogan’s, Argentina’s, Michael Metcalfe, ” Metcalfe Organizations: REUTERS, Christian, Federal Reserve &, Macro, Deutsche Bank, Management, Russia, U.S, Athens ’, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Street Global Markets, Indicators Locations: Paris, France, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Ukraine, Greece, Athens, Pakistan, Britain’s, Turkey, Nigeria, Colombia, Mexico, U.S, Poland, Ecuador, Japan
Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. "We've had resilience in the U.S. economy, in the jobs market, inflation ticking higher and, obviously, the rise in oil prices. "We're not really expecting to see any rate cuts for quite some time, well toward the back end of 2024. Markets are looking ahead to the next data points, starting with key U.S. personal consumption data due later on Friday. The yen last traded at 149.125 to the dollar, which eased 0.13% on the day.
Persons: Florence Lo, Fiona Cincotta, We're, Tony Sycamore, we've, Sycamore, Thomas Barkin, Yasunari Ueno, Brigid Riley, Gerry Doyle, Neil Fullick, Kevin Liffey Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Treasury, City Index, Federal Reserve, IG, Richmond Fed, Mizuho Securities, Sterling, National Statistics, COVID, Thomson Locations: U.S, City, Tokyo
Claims in U.S. dollars rose 0.8% to $6.576 trillion in the second quarter, but were down 1% from a year earlier. The euro's share edged up slightly to 19.9% in the second quarter, from 19.8% the previous three months. The dollar index was up 3.1% in the second quarter, recovering from a 0.9% fall in the first quarter. The IMF data also showed the Chinese renminbi's share of currency reserves slipped to 2.4% in the second quarter from about 2.6% in the first. IMF data also showed total global reserves rose to $12.055 trillion in the second quarter from $12.028 trillion in the first quarter.
Persons: Michael Langham, Langham, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, David Gregorio, Chris Reese Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Canadian, Global, IMF, Thomson Locations: U.S
WASHINGTON (AP) — An inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve rose in August, boosted mainly by higher gas prices. Friday's report from the Commerce Department showed that prices rose 0.4% from July to August, up from just 0.2% the previous month. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, though, “core” inflation rose by the smallest amount in nearly three years, evidence that inflation pressures continue to ease. Compared with a year earlier, overall prices rose 3.5% in August, slightly higher than the 3.4% increase in July. The inflation gauge that was issued Thursday, called the personal consumption expenditures price index, is separate from the better-known consumer price index.
Persons: ” Rubeela Farooqi, ’ paychecks, Austan Goolsbee, ” Goolsbee, , Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Commerce Department, Fed, Republicans, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Locations: July’s
As interest rates potentially peak, investment advisors say there are now opportunities for hefty gains through certain government bonds. This was during the Covid-19 pandemic when the Bank of England had just cut rates to 0.1%. "You potentially could make a good capital appreciation when interest rates start to fall," Amis added. Amis expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in August 2024. Meanwhile, interest rate traders in the U.S. expect the Federal Reserve to implement its first rate cut in July 2024.
Persons: Matthew Amis, Amis, Abrdn, Iain Stealey, Stealey Organizations: Bank of England, U.S, Treasury, Bank of, JPMorgan Asset Management, Federal Reserve Locations: U.K, U.S
Take Five: Roll on Q4!
  + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A possible shutdown would be further evidence of how political polarization in Washington is weakening fiscal policymaking, Moody's says. Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. economy created 150,000 jobs in September versus 187,000 in August. 2/ NEW CHIEF IN TOWNThe Reserve Bank of Australia's new governor Michele Bullock, the first woman to head the bank, chairs her first meeting on Tuesday. Meanwhile, New Zealand's Reserve Bank meets on Wednesday. With the cost of living a key election battleground, the drastic cut brings relief to those struggling with mortgage repayments.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Ira Iosebashvili, Kevin Buckland, Harry Robertson, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Joe Biden, Moody's, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Adam Glapinski, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, ., China, Democratic, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, New, Reserve Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Equity, Treasury, Reserve, ING reckons, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, there's, Australia, Poland, Ira, New York, Tokyo, London, Washington, China, Beijing, Poland's
What could break under higher-for-longer interest rates?
  + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Yet, the strain from interest rate hikes has just started to come through and with central banks signalling that rates will likely stay higher for longer, the notion of something "breaking" remains strong. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics1/ PROPERTY PAINNowhere is the impact of higher rates being felt more acutely than in real estate, still reeling from COVID-19. "We have many zombie companies in the United States and Europe from the low interest rates era, and I cannot imagine how they can survive now with high interest rates." Still, big question marks remain over their future, not least from a global property rout. Miller noted that European banks are also vulnerable given their bigger size relative to the economy that leaves them more exposed to risks from various pockets.
Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Heimstaden, Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer, Guy Miller, Miller Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, Reuters Graphics Reuters, SBB, China Evergrande, HK, Federal, European Central Bank, Zurich Insurance, The Bank of Japan, Capital, Thomson Locations: Washington, Sweden, Europe, Stockholm, Berlin, CHINA, China, United States, Big U.S
Dollar off 10-month high, yen still under intervention watch
  + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar held off a 10-month high on Friday as markets headed into the end of the quarter, giving the yen slightly more breathing room at the end of the week amid intervention concerns. The yen remains in focus as it trades near the 150 level, which is viewed as potentially spurring intervention from Japanese authorities. Against the dollar, the Japanese currency last traded at 149.34 yen . Elsewhere, the euro stood at $1.05625, down 0.04% so far in Asia after climbing off this week's multi-month low of $1.0488. Investors will be looking ahead to Friday's CPI data out of the euro zone for clues into the state of the bloc's economy.
Persons: Tony Sycamore, we've, Sycamore, Thomas Barkin, Yasunari Ueno Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, IG, Richmond Fed, Mizuho Securities Locations: U.S, Asia
Porsche AG confirms 2023, long-term margin outlook
  + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
A Porsche logo is seen on a vehicle displayed during an event a day ahead of the official opening of the 2023 Munich Auto Show IAA Mobility, in Munich, Germany, September 4, 2023. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth/file photo Acquire Licensing RightsFRANKFURT, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Luxury carmaker Porsche AG (P911_p.DE) on Thursday confirmed its 2023 outlook, saying demand for its cars remained strong despite the challenging macroeconomic environment. This also influenced the price of the (Porsche AG) share." Still, the company said it still expects an operating return on sales of 17%-19% in 2023 on sales of 40 billion to 42 billion euros ($42.05 billion to $44.15 billion), as well as a return on sales of more than 20% long-term. ($1 = 0.9512 euros)Reporting by Christoph Steitz, Editing by Rachel MoreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Angelika Warmuth, Porsche, Christoph Steitz, Rachel More Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Porsche AG, Porsche, Thomson Locations: Munich, Germany, China
He told CNBC in an interview the fourth quarter of this year would be the "litmus test" for his call. He added a recession typically starts two years after a rate hike cycle begins. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementVeteran economist David Rosenberg has been calling a recession for the last 18 months, and he isn't letting the current resilience in the US economy change his mind. "It hasn't materialized, dot dot dot, yet," Rosenberg told CNBC on Wednesday, in response to his bearish call.
Persons: David Rosenberg, , Rosenberg, — Squawk Organizations: CNBC, Service, Rosenberg Research, US Federal Reserve, Energy, West Texas, Brent Locations: Toronto, Saudi Arabia, Russia
Sept 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Investors will not be able to switch off completely over the weekend, however, with the fast-evolving Evergrande saga making for gripping reading. On top of that, China's manufacturing and service sector purchasing managers index reports for September - official and unofficial - will be released on Sunday. The MSCI World stock index's rise on Thursday was its first in 10 days, snapping its longest losing streak since November 2011. Would a partial recovery in risk appetite and reversal of many of these trades at the start of the fourth quarter be a complete surprise?
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao 私, Organizations: Investors, Treasury, International Monetary Fund, Japan Tokyo, 「 Reuters Locations: Asia, Japan, Tokyo, Hong Kong, eyeing, China, U.S, Australia
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