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☆ Australia's central bank loses chief to public ire over rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Lowe's dedication to the bank is not in doubt, having joined straight from school in 1980. The first mainly impacted markets while the second, and more fateful, soured sentiment with the public and politicians. A later review found the event had caused the bank "reputational damage" and the policy was unlikely to be used again. Lowe's mistake in 2021 was to be too specific on timing by repeatedly saying rates were unlikely to rise until 2024. With prices rising rapidly, Lowe was forced to reverse course and hike rates in May, a whole two years earlier than forecast.

Persons: Philip Lowe it's, Lowe, I'm, we'd, Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Lowe's, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, MIT, Reserve Bank, Thomson Locations: Australia, Lincoln

☆ Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says the Goldilocks inflation figures for June put stocks in the ideal environment
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Inflation came in just right in June, and it means stocks are in the "ideal environment," Jeremy Siegel said. That's well below the 41-year-record above 9% notched last summer, and a sign that the Fed's tightening efforts are working to cool the economy. "We've got kind of a Goldilocks report," Siegel said in an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday. It's the ideal environment for stocks," Siegel added. Stocks popped 2% this week, as investors expect the Fed to soon pause or dial back interest rates after the release of the June inflation report.

Persons: Jeremy Siegel, they've, We've, Siegel, Stocks Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Locations: Wall, Silicon

Jamie Dimon, the bank’s chief executive, has deep political connections, and his prognostications on the economy are scrutinized in some circles as closely as a central banker’s musings. The U.S. economy “continues to perform better than many had expected,” said Charles W. Scharf, the bank’s chief executive. Unlike the other banks, Citigroup reported a fall in second-quarter profit, although the decline was not as severe as analysts had predicted. The U.S. government debt-limit standoff in April and May was also reflected in the banks’ results, with Citi citing anxiety during the negotiations as pushing investment-banking clients to the “sidelines” during the second quarter. What’s NextIn the next week or so, a slew of other banks will report quarterly earnings.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, didn’t, ”, Wells, “, Charles W, Scharf, Jane Fraser, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Treasury, Citigroup, Citi, Western Alliance and Comerica Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Republic

☆ JPMorgan’s Profit Jumps, but Interest Rates Remain a Threat
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Rob Copeland | More About Rob Copeland | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Why It MattersGiven its size, JPMorgan is a proxy for the banking industry at large. Jamie Dimon, the bank’s chief executive, has deep political connections and his prognostications on the economy are scrutinized in some circles as closely as a central banker’s musings. On Friday, in a statement, Mr. Dimon said the U.S. economy was “resilient,” echoing language he has used repeatedly this year, but listed a litany of risks, including that consumers are burning through their cash buffers and that inflation remains high. BackgroundJPMorgan and Mr. Dimon have been all over the news this year, thanks to their prominent role as an attempted stabilizing force during the spring’s banking crisis that felled three smaller lenders. What’s NextThe next week or so will see a slew of other banks report their quarterly earnings.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Treasury, Western Alliance and Comerica Locations: U.S, Republic

☆ Dollar deepens dive on inflation surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The euro made a fresh 15-month high of $1.1148 in Asia on Thursday and the yen touched its strongest since mid-May at 138.08 per dollar. U.S. core inflation came in at 0.2% in June against market expectations for 0.3%. Moves in other currencies were smaller but still delivered new milestones as traders reckon the dollar has further to drop. The Swiss franc hit its strongest since 2015 at 0.8655 to the dollar and sterling a 15-month top of $1.3019. Amongst the dollar selling, one outlier was perhaps the yen which has led gains.

Persons: Imre Speizer, Malaysia's, Pita Limjaroenrat, Steve Englander, Kazuo, Ueda, Chang Wei Liang, Tom Westbrook, Jamie Freed, Kim Coghill Organizations: month's, U.S, Westpac, New Zealand, Swiss, Standard Chartered, Bank of Japan, Fed, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Scandinavia

☆ Dollar takes a beating as traders see U.S. rates peaking
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar had its worst session in five months overnight, falling more than 1% against the euro to its lowest in more than a year and notching even larger losses elsewhere. U.S. core inflation came in at 0.2% in June against market expectations for 0.3%. Two-year Treasury yields, which track rate expectations, dropped more than 15 basis points overnight to 4.73%. Sterling sat at $1.2994, just below its overnight high of $1.3001. Chinese trade data is due later on Thursday, along with minutes from last month's European Central Bank meeting, European industrial production data and British monthly GDP.

Persons: Steve Englander, Sterling Organizations: month's, U.S, New Zealand, Sterling, Swiss, Standard Chartered, Swedish, Bank of Japan, Central Bank Locations: Asia, Scandinavia

☆ Dollar takes a beating as traders see US rates peaking
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar had its worst session in five months overnight, falling more than 1% against the euro to its lowest in more than a year and notching even larger losses elsewhere. The New Zealand dollar reached a two-month high of $0.6309 and the Aussie a three-week peak of $0.6796. The moves were small, yet showed traders' faith the dollar has further to fall. Sterling sat at $1.2994, just below its overnight high of $1.3001. The Swiss franc , which hit its highest since 2015 overnight, traded just below that level at 0.8661 francs to the dollar.

Persons: Steve Englander, Sterling, Tom Westbrook, Jamie Freed Organizations: month's, U.S, New Zealand, Sterling, Swiss, Standard Chartered, Swedish, Bank of Japan, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Scandinavia

☆ Key US inflation gauge cooled last month to the lowest level in nearly three years
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The PPI index, a key inflation gauge that tracks the average change in prices that businesses pay to suppliers, has cooled significantly since peaking at 11.2% in June 2022 and has now declined for 12 consecutive months. Annual producer price inflation is at its lowest level since August 2020, BLS data shows. “It’s definitely a good month for inflation,” Pelle told CNN. Starting in March 2022, the central bank rolled out 10 consecutive interest rate hikes to tame inflation, finally hitting pause last month. Doves tend to favor looser monetary policy and issues like low unemployment over low inflation, while hawks favor robust rate hikes and keeping inflation low above all else.

Persons: Price, Watchara, —, Alex Pelle, It’s, ” Pelle, “, That’s, Pelle, ” Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, La, MediaNews, The Press, Enterprise, Getty, BLS, PPI, Mizuho Securities, CNN, ”, CPI, Federal Reserve Locations: Minneapolis, La Reina, San Bernardino , California

He said in the statement released by the St. Louis Fed that the regional bank "is well-positioned for ongoing success and impact." The St. Louis Fed said Kathleen O'Neill Paese, the regional bank's first vice president and chief operating officer, will act as interim president. The regional bank said its search committee will look nationally for a new leader, noting that its search will be "robust, transparent, fair and inclusive." While they operate under the oversight of the Board of Governors in Washington, regional Fed banks are quasi-private institutions technically owned by member banks. With Bullard's exit, there will be two unfilled regional Fed bank slots.

Persons: James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed, Mitchell, Daniels, Jr, doesn't, Tim Duy, Duy, Derek Tang, LH Meyers, Wrightson ICAP, Kathleen Bostjancic, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Louis Fed's, Esther George, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Louis Federal Reserve, U.S, Purdue, St, School of Business, Federal, Macro, Fed, Purdue University, Minneapolis Fed, Nationwide, Brookings Institution, Governors, Kansas City Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Indiana, St, Washington

But it could begin to undercut arguments for more hikes beyond that, and may shift the Fed's relentlessly hawkish tone. That ratio has dropped as the Fed's rate hikes have slowed labor market demand, and in May hit its lowest level since November 2021 at around 1.6-to-1. If June's auto sales data is any indication, though, a marked slowdown does not appear imminent. Last month's annualized sales rate came in at nearly 15.7 million vehicles, well above industry-watcher estimates. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsBANK DATA: Released every Thursday and FridayTo some degree the Fed wants credit to become more expensive and less available.

Persons: Jerome Powell, delinquencies, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Labor, Survey, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Andrew Bailey’s silence is hurting UK homeowners
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, July 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The Bank of England’s silence has left traders in a tizzy. Market interest rates have spiked due to soaring inflation expectations, pushing up mortgage costs. That looks like an over-reaction but unless Governor Andrew Bailey says so, homeowners will pay the price. Now, traders believe rates will be at around 6.2% in a year’s time and stay above 5.8% for a further two years. That spike sent the average two-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.66% on Tuesday, the highest level since August 2008, according to Moneyfacts.

Persons: Andrew Bailey, BoE, abate, Bailey, Liz Truss, Neil Unmack, Pranav Kiran Organizations: Reuters, Bank, Finance, Bank of England, Thomson

PinnedInflation data released on Wednesday showed a pronounced cooling and offered some of the most hopeful news since the Federal Reserve began trying to tame rapid price increases 16 months ago. Officials have signaled in recent weeks that they are likely to raise interest rates at their July 25-26 meeting. For one thing, the cost of housing as measured by the Consumer Price Index — which relies on rent prices — is coming down sharply. The Fed officially targets 2 percent inflation on average over time, though it defines that goal using a separate inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. Interest rates increases work partly by slowing the job market and cooling wage increases, so the Fed’s fight against inflation and the strength of the labor market are closely tied.

Persons: ”, Laura Rosner, Warburton, it’s, . Rosner, Airfares, “, Beth Weaver, Loretta Mester, ” Julia Pollak Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Consumer, Buick GMC, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, ZipRecruiter Locations: Erie, Pa

☆ The drop in inflation in June paves the way for the US economy to avoid a recession, former PIMCO chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The drop in inflation is strengthening the case the US will avoid a recession, economist Paul McCulley said. The former chief economist of PIMCO pointed to June CPI, which showed inflation eased to 3%. Cooling prices in the economy is exactly what the Fed and markets want to see, he said. They don't have to stay high as long as they think if it turns out that the lags are nastier than we think," McCulley said. Other commentators have turned more positive on the economy and markets as inflation continues to cool without sparking significant weakness in the labor market.

Persons: Paul McCulley, PIMCO, McCulley Organizations: Service, Consumer, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon

PinnedInflation data released on Wednesday showed a pronounced cooling and offered some of the most hopeful news since the Federal Reserve began trying to tame rapid price increases 16 months ago. But Federal Reserve officials are still trying to assess whether the cool down is likely to be quick and complete. Officials have signaled in recent weeks that they are likely to raise interest rates at their July 25-26 meeting. For one thing, the cost of housing as measured by the Consumer Price Index — which relies on rent prices — is coming down sharply. Interest rates increases work partly by slowing the job market and cooling wage increases, so the Fed’s fight against inflation and the strength of the labor market are closely tied.

☆ Food prices squeeze consumers in June, hot weather boosts summer spending: BRC
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Suban Abdulla | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The BRC said retail spending increased by 4.9% in annual terms in June - roughly in line with its average this year, though stronger than May's 3.9% and a 1.0% drop a year earlier. However, the BRC data is not adjusted for inflation, so last month's increase in spending still reflects a fall in the volume of goods purchased. Previous BRC data showed prices among its members were up by an annual 8.4% on average in June, rising to 14.6% for food, despite a drop in the cost of some food products. Over the second quarter as a whole, food spending was up 9.8% while non-food spending grew just 0.3%. Paul Martin, UK head of retail at accountants KPMG, who sponsor the data, said stubborn food inflation was reducing shoppers' ability to spend on non-essential items.

Persons: Paul Martin, Martin, Will Hobbs, Hobbs, Suban Abdulla, David Milliken Organizations: British Retail Consortium, KPMG, Consumers, Bank of England, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Britain

☆ Earnings season is upon us. What to look out for when major banks report Friday
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS), our two financial holdings, will report quarterly numbers Friday and a week from Tuesday, respectively. All 23 institutions tested, including Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley, passed the exercise that simulates a hypothetical severe global recession. Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley announced increases in their capital returns to shareholders after clearing that regulatory hurdle. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo YTD performance Wells Fargo has a unique story among the major U.S. banks because of its multiyear restructuring plan. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley YTD performance When Morgan Stanley reports, net assets in its wealth management (WM) business will be a key metric.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Whalen, Whalen, Banks, Wells, ROTCE, there's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, Silicon Valley Bank, Street, Street Journal, CNBC, Barclays, Investment, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Reuters Locations: U.S, Silicon, SVB, Wells, Wells Fargo

☆ U.S. calls Pan Gongsheng China's c.bank 'head', suggesting unannounced promotion
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-09 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen referred to PBOC Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng, whom she meet during a series of meetings with top Chinese officials, as the head of the central bank during a press conference ending her visit to Beijing on Sunday. The Treasury Department was already referring to Pan as central bank head after Yellen met him on Friday. Pan, 60, has been deputy governor since 2012 and is China's top foreign exchange regulator. Governor Yi has been widely expected to retire since being left off the ruling Communist Party's Central Committee during the party's once-in-five-years congress in October. Reporting by Andrea Shalal in Beijing; Additional reporting by Reuters Beijing newsroom; Writing by John Geddie; Editing by William MallardOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Pan Gongsheng, Yi, Yellen, Premier Li Qiang, Pan, Andrea Shalal, John Geddie, William Mallard Organizations: United, People's Bank of China, Sunday, Communist Party, Pan, Treasury, Premier, Information Office, Cambridge, Harvard, Communist Party's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, United States, Chinese, Beijing, China's, China, Reuters Beijing

The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) was solidly higher for most of the afternoon, but stocks sold off toward the end of the session. "The jobs report today I think is consistent with what the Fed would like to see," said Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. Among S&P 500 sectors, defensive groups fell the most, with consumer staples (.SPLRCS) down 1.3%. For the week, the S&P 500 fell about 1.2%, the Dow slid roughly 2% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.9%. The S&P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and five new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 45 new highs and 63 new lows.

Persons: Levi Strauss, Quincy Krosby, stoked, Josh Jamner, Brendan McDermid, Russell, Dow, Austan Goolsbee, Alibaba, decliners, Lewis Krauskopf, Sinead Carew, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Caroline Valetkevitch, Shinjini Ganguli, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, LPL, Reserve, ClearBridge Investments, Dow Jones, Energy, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Chicago Fed, Rivian Automotive, Ant Group, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York City, New York, Bengaluru

The U.S. added the fewest jobs in 2-1/2 years in June, although persistently strong wage growth pointed to still-tight labor market conditions, U.S. government data showed. "The jobs report today I think is consistent with what the Fed would like to see," said Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 12.42 points, or 0.28%, to end at 4,399.17 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 18.33 points, or 0.13%, to 13,660.72. Energy (.SPNY) and materials (.SPLRCM) were among the biggest-gaining S&P 500 sectors, while defensive groups including consumer staples (.SPLRCS) lagged. Friday's jobs report kicks off a busy month of data including reports on inflation and corporate earnings ahead of the Fed meeting at the end of July.

Persons: Levi Strauss, payrolls, Josh Jamner, Austan Goolsbee, Carol Schleif, Alibaba, Lewis Krauskopf, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Caroline Valetkevitch, Shinjini Ganguli, Richard Chang Organizations: Reserve, ClearBridge Investments, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Energy, Chicago Fed, BMO Family, Rivian Automotive, Ant Group, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Bengaluru

"That would be a Fed triumph and that can involve a couple of rate increases over this year." Remarks from Goolsbee previously sounded more skeptical of the need for further rate hikes on top of what the Fed has already done. The report is suggestive of labor market cooling, Goolsbee said, and the full effect of the Fed's 500 basis points of rate hikes since last March is still to come. Financial markets are pricing a Fed rate hike when policymakers next meet, in two and a half weeks. Services inflation even pre-pandemic was typically higher than the Fed's 2% goal, he said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, we're, Ann Saphir, Chizu Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, CNBC, Fed, Thomson

OTTAWA, July 7 (Reuters) - Canada's economy added far more jobs than expected in June, data showed on Friday, a result analysts said probably seals the deal for another Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hike next week. The unemployment rate in June increased for the second consecutive month and is now at its highest level since February 2022, though still below a pre-pandemic 12-month average, Statscan said. The June jobs report is the last major economic figure to be released before the BoC's rate announcement on Wednesday. Growth has remained resilient despite nine rate increases totaling 450 basis points since March of last year. The net jobs addition in June, the largest since January, were driven by full-time work.

Persons: Jobs, Statscan, Derek Holt, Royce Mendes, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Emelia Sithole, Mark Porter Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Statistics, Scotiabank, Desjardins Group, Reuters, Canadian, Employment, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Ottawa

☆ The economy is expanding and investors need to buy the dip in stocks, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should buy the recent pullback in equities, Fundstrat's Tom Lee said. He called the sell-off in response to the hot ADP jobs report "exaggerated." But the economy is actually "slipping into an expansion," Lee said, setting up stocks for gains. But Lee's comments came before the Labor Department released its June jobs report early Friday. In the meantime, we believe markets have entered a 'buy the dip' regime where 2% pullbacks need to be bought," he later added.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, — Organizations: Service, Dow, Labor Department, New York Fed

[1/4] U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets with representatives of the U.S. business community in China in Beijing, July 7, 2023. REUTERS/Thomas PeterBEIJING, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday called for market reforms in China and criticized the world's second-largest economy for its recent "punitive" actions against U.S. companies and new export controls on some critical minerals. MARKET REFORMSYellen also took aim at China's planned economy, urging Beijing to return to more market-oriented practices that had underpinned its rapid growth in past years. "A shift toward market reforms would be in China’s interests," the former top U.S. central banker told the U.S. business executives. Yellen noted that China's enormous and growing middle-class provided a big market for American goods and services, and stressed that Washington's targeted actions against China were based on national security concerns.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Thomas Peter BEIJING, Yellen, Liu He, Xi Jinping, Yi Gang, Premier Li Qiang, Yellen's, Michael Hart, Joe Biden, Xi, Antony Blinken, John Kerry, Washington, Andrea Shalal, Michael Perry, Toby Chopra Organizations: . Treasury, REUTERS, U.S, American Chamber of Commerce, Treasury, Premier, BIDEN, Economic Cooperation, Thomson Locations: China, Beijing, United States, Washington, U.S, TEEING, New Delhi, Asia, San Francisco, Ukraine

Yellen is due to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng -- her direct counterpart as China's top economic official -- on Saturday, a U.S. Treasury official said. MARKET REFORMSYellen also took aim at China's planned economy, urging Beijing to return to more market-oriented practices that had underpinned its rapid growth in past years. "A shift toward market reforms would be in China's interests," she told the AmCham event. Yellen dismissed the idea of decoupling the U.S. and Chinese economies, nothing that China's enormous and growing middle-class provided a big market for American goods and services. A Treasury official said the vibrant U.S. business community in China was "a living embodiment that we are not decoupling."

Persons: Yellen, Li, Janet Yellen, Li Qiang, Washington, Liu He, Xi Jinping, Yi Gang, Mark Schiefelbein, Yellen's, Michael Hart, BIDEN, Joe Biden, Xi, Antony Blinken, John Kerry, Andrea Shalal, Joe Cash, David Lawder, Catherine Evans, Heather Timmons, Alistair Bell Organizations: China, . Treasury, U.S, Treasury, American Chamber of Commerce, of, People, REUTERS U.S, Economic Cooperation, Thomson Locations: U.S, BEIJING, China, Beijing, United States, Washington, New Delhi, Asia, San Francisco, Ukraine

☆ Central bankers lay out digital currency cyber threat
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - The central bankers' central bank, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), has laid out a seven-point plan designed to help countries prevent cyber hacks on the new wave of digital national currencies under development. The BIS acts as an umbrella body for the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and other central banks around the world and has been co-ordinating a lot of work on CBDC development. Hackers have struck a number of central banks in recent years from Denmark to Bangladesh. Specifically, it calls on central banks to:• Recognise the complexity and new threat landscape brought by CBDC systems. It also called for central banks to use the global "MITRE ATT&CK" database of past cyber attacks, and for an "official extension" of the MITRE ATT&CK framework to help central banks beef up their security measures.

Persons: MITRE, Marc Jones, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, BIS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Polaris, Thomson Locations: Denmark, Bangladesh

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