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Is it time to worry about stagflation?
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
CNN —For the past two years, economists have been worrying about the risks of high inflation rates. But far less attention has been given to inflation’s sibling: stagflation. Stagflation is the combination of high inflation and a slowing economy. The current state of stagflation: Last year, then-World Bank President David Malpass warned that stagflation risks were high because of supply chain disruptions stemming from lockdowns in China and bans on Russian oil. What’s happening now: The risk of stagflation varies significantly across different regions of the globe.
Persons: Stagflation, David Malpass, Janet Yellen, , Lan Ha, stagflation, Andrew Kenningham, , That’s, ” Kenningham, ” Ha, Ha, Parija Kavilanz, don’t, Dallin Hatch, Biden, Joe Biden, Trump, Matt Egan, It’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, World Bank, Euromonitor, Capital Economics, Bank of England’s, National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Trump Locations: Israel, lockdowns, China, Europe, Germany, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia
LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - The dollar eased on Wednesday after data showed the Chinese economy slipped into deflation last month, which upped the chances for the government to roll out extra stimulus measures and nudged investors into risk assets. Dollar selling by state-owned Chinese banks helped the yuan rally from a one-month low, dealers said. The Chinese central bank's stronger-than-expected exchange-rate fixing at 7.1588 per dollar before the open signalled its discomfort with the yuan's recent declines. The dollar index - which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others - eased 0.1%, paring some of Tuesday's 0.47% rise. "Chinese inflation data showed that consumer prices have barely moved in July, confirming that the world’s second-largest economy is stalling and may be moving into deflation," he said.
Persons: There's, Ray Attrill, Ricardo Evangelista, Chris Scicluna, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Buckland, Brigid Riley, Simon Cameron, Moore, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: National Australia Bank, Federal Reserve, Daiwa Capital, ECB, Bank of England, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: China, Tokyo
US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors awaited the July CPI report. Markets are hoping cooler inflation will push the Fed to end its rate hike campaign. August has been a tough month so far for stocks, with the summer rally losing steam. Investors are hoping that cooler inflation data could influence the Federal Reserve to end its rate hike campaign, which would likely be a boon for stocks. In the meantime, investors have their eye on The Walt Disney Company, which is set to report earnings after the closing bell.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Service, Cleveland, Investors, Federal Reserve, Walt Disney Company Locations: Wall, Silicon
But falling prices there could end up being good news for the rest of the world. However, falling prices there aren't necessarily bad news for everyone else. In China, prices are falling rather than risingData from the National Bureau of Statistics published Wednesday showed China's factory-gate prices, as measured by the producer price index, plunging 4.4% year-on-year in July for a tenth straight month of declines. Falling prices in the world's second-biggest economy could "give central bankers in the US, UK and Europe pause for thought when they weigh up their next steps," according to AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould. So deflation in China might end up being bad news for Beijing – but a blessing in disguise for the rest of the world.
Persons: it's, China's, Hargreaves Lansdow n's, Steve Lansdown, AJ Bell, Russ Mould Organizations: Service, Privacy, Apple, Nike, Federal Reserve, National Bureau, Statistics, Beijing, Bank of England Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, West, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Ukrainian
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Back-to-back losses Still believe in Disney Eli Lilly keeps going 1. Eli Lilly keeps going Eli Lilly (LLY) continued its post-earnings rally, up more than 1% during Wednesday trading. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .
Persons: Jim Cramer, Eli Lilly, Bob Iger's, LLY, Lilly, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Federal, Fed, Disney Disney, CNBC –, Disney's ESPN, Penn Entertainment, Regulators Locations: U.S
Cloud stocks slipped on Tuesday, after one of the more prominent ones, Datadog , lowered its full-year revenue guidance as organizations remain engaged in cost-saving exercises. Then inflation hit, central bankers raised interest rates, and investors began selling holdings in fast-growing cloud stocks and rotating into safer investments that could more consistently offer returns. Executives at many cloud companies responded by reducing overhead, sometimes in the form of layoffs. Cloud stocks began to rebound, but many, including Datadog, have yet to trade above their record highs from 2021. Like Datadog, Everbridge , whose software helps companies respond to emergencies, lowered its growth expectations for the full year on Tuesday.
Persons: Datadog, Refinitiv, Olivier Pomel, Pomel, Bernstein, Peter Weed, Covid, RingCentral, Hewlett Packard, Tarek Robbiati, Vlad Shmunis, Sonalee Parekh, Patrick Brickley Organizations: Computing Fund, Bernstein Research, Nasdaq Locations: U.S, Smartsheet, Snowflake
That would be a lag of eight months, significantly longer than the average gap between last hike and first cut going back decades. "In the past markets have tended to underestimate how high rates are raised and underestimate how low rates are cut. Inflation targeting, more sophisticated financial markets, transparent central bank communications, and greater central bank autonomy since the 1990s have all contributed as well. Brazil's central bank, one of the first to raise rates in early 2021, has started cutting them after a 12-month pause. Current market pricing suggests that will not come until 2025, which would be an even longer lag.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Joe Lavorgna, BoE, Milton Friedman's, Jamie McGeever, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Bank of, Reuters, The Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: New, New York City, U.S, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO , Florida, Brazil's
The BOJ's decision shook markets on Friday and contrasted sharply with Ueda's more cautious comments in recent months about the dangers of retreating too quickly from accommodative Kuroda-era policies. "There's also a small but probable risk of inflation overshooting in Japan, which gave the BOJ reason to act." NEW PRIORITIESThe BOJ's policy decision last week signalled to investors that it would now allow the 10-year government bond yield to move closer to 1% before it intervenes. 'BIT BY BIT'The shift in thinking gained momentum at the BOJ's June policy meeting, but not enough to turn the tide. It was a test case, or a preliminary exercise, toward future policy normalisation," said former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi.
Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Fumio, accommodative Kuroda, Ueda, YCC, There's, Hirokazu Matsuno, Seiji Adachi, Asahi Noguchi, Ryozo Himino, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, Masato Kanda, Kanda, Takahide, Leika Kihara, Takaya Yamaguchi, Takahiko Wada, Kentaro Sugiyama, Yoshifumi, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, TOKYO, Bank, Ueda, Reuters, BIT, Asahi, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan
The S&P 500 is on track to gain 28% this year after a dismal 2022, Oppenheimer said. Stoltzfus, who has made the case for a huge stock market rebound since January, raised his S&P 500 target for the year to 4,900. "A broadening of the rally across S&P 500 sectors suggests that the bull market that emerged from the October 2022 lows has legs to run higher into 2024," Stoltzfus added. Other Wall Street commentators have turned more bullish on stocks as the S&P 500 nears its all-time-high of 4,796, which it hit in January 2022. The benchmark index is likely to hit a new record price this year, some forecasters say, thanks to inflation dropping and financial conditions easing into 2024.
Persons: Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
Morgan Stanley economists see a stronger housing market cycle and interest rates being cut in 2024. Luckily, Morgan Stanley strategists think the housing market is finally reaching a turning point. That will mark the end of the current craziness and the beginning of a new housing market cycle. As for the US industries and stocks connected to the housing market, Wilson noted that tomorrow's market will bring about different winners and losers. Higher interest rates mean higher mortgage rates, and higher mortgage rates mean lower demand for mortgages.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, homebuyers, there's, isn't, Morgan Stanley Wilson Organizations: Housing Locations: homeownership, rentership
Gold gets a safety boost as Fitch U.S. downgrade shakes markets
  + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Bars of gold are seen at the Krastsvetmet company, one of the world's largest producers of precious metals in Moscow, Russia on January 31, 2023. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,946.97 per ounce by 0312 GMT, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,984. Gold, which is priced in dollars, is a favored safe-haven investment in times of stress and economic uncertainty. Higher interest rates raise the cost of holding gold, which yields nothing and needs money to store and insure. In other metals, spot silver eased 0.2% to $24.29, platinum dropped 0.5% to $926.18, and palladium was down 0.1% at $1,238.59.
Persons: Gold, Fitch, Edward Meir Organizations: U.S ., United States, AAA, AA, Marex, U.S Locations: Moscow, Russia, U.S
On average, August has been the worst performing month for stocks since 1986, according to Morningstar. That means the dwindling number of traders who remain must take extra care in a such a potentially volatile environment. 99-year-old trucking company Yellow shuts downYellow Corp., a 99-year-old trucking company that was once a dominant player in its field, halted operations Sunday and will lay off all 30,000 of its workers, reports my colleague Chris Isidore. He said the company began taking on significant amount of debt 20 years ago in order to acquire other trucking companies. “Now their debt service is just enormous,” he said, pointing to $1.5 billion in debt on its books.
Persons: Morningstar, It’s, it’s, , Michael Landsberg, Landsberg, , ” Jackson, Jerome Powell, Barbie, Barbie ”, “ Oppenheimer, Eva Rothenberg, “ Barbenheimer ”, “ Barbie, Chris Isidore, Satish Jindel, Tom Nightingale, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Apple, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Fed, Dow, AMC, Oppenheimer AMC Theaters, CNN, Warner Bros, Corp, Teamsters, AFS Logistics, Locations: New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington, Nashville , Tennessee
On Tuesday, Goolsbee said his own decision at the Fed's next meeting in September will be driven by what happens on prices. And those metrics suggest, Goolsbee said, that the Fed is on the "golden path" of disinflation without a recession. But, he added, he does not see a tight connection between labor market tightness and inflation - meaning, he believes that inflation can fade even as the job market stays healthy. The Fed's September rate call will depend on what happens with inflation, as will how long the Fed will keep rates high and when it will start cutting, he said. "The answer is, it totally depends on whether we're able to navigate the path and get inflation down without a recession," he said.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Obama, Brendan McDermid, Goolsbee, that's, Banks, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: University of Chicago, Democracy, REUTERS, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Reuters, U.S, Fed, Labor Department, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Gold subdued on dollar strength as markets await economic data
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A technician cleans impurities from melted gold bars at Primera Gold's laboratory in Bukavu, South Kivu Province, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, May 12, 2023. Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar climbed, while investors looked forward to key economic data this week for signs on how long the interest rates could keep rising to quell sticky inflation. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,961.49 per ounce by 0343 GMT, while U.S. gold futures dropped 0.5% to $1,961.10 per ounce. Gold prices ended July 2.3% higher, the biggest monthly rise in four months on expectations that an end to the rate-hiking cycle by global central banks was nearing. This is why the central banks are sticking with the data-dependent mantra," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Nicholas Frappell, Austan Goolsbee, Tim Waterer, Waterer Organizations: Primera Gold's, U.S, ABC Refinery, Chicago Federal, KCM Trade Locations: Bukavu, South Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo, Chicago
Yet a sharp drawdown in the excess savings created by COVID-19 could be a curve ball that slams into bullish sentiment. U.S. excess savings have fallen to around $500 billion from around $2.1 trillion in August 2021, the San Francisco Federal Reserve estimates. In Europe, Deutsche Bank reckons excess savings in Sweden, struggling to contain a property slump, have dwindled. Reuters GraphicsRUNNING OUTDefinitions for excess savings differ, but economists generally agree that this means savings that went beyond trend levels during the pandemic. Cardano chief economist Shweta Singh said U.S. pandemic excess savings are likely to be depleted by year-end.
Persons: Rachel Adams, Janus Henderson, Oliver Blackbourn, Shweta Singh, Guy Miller, Jamie Dimon, Ben, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, Janus Henderson's Blackbourn, U.S . Russell, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Blackbourn, Zurich's Miller, Simon Bell, Guilluame Paillat, Paillat, Naomi Rovnick, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Oxford, REUTERS, San Francisco Federal, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Insurance Group, Ryanair, JPMorgan, Unilever, U.S ., London's, Bank of, Aviva, Thomson Locations: Britain, London, China, Europe, U.S, Sweden, United States, downturns, Australia
A first-time homebuyer needs to earn 13% more money to afford a starter home, per a Redfin analysis. The average starter home cost $243,000 in June, sending the income needed to afford it to $64,500 per year. "The most affordable homes for sale are no longer affordable to people with lower budgets" due to rising prices and rates. The average starter home cost $243,000 in June, up 2% from the average price last year and up 45% from before the pandemic. Experts say affordability won't improve until mortgage rates pull back more significantly, though that's unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Persons: Sheharyar Bokhari, Redfin, That's, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon
Expectations for peak BoE rates reached 6.5% on July 11 after data showed record wage growth. But they fell back after a bigger-than-expected decline in consumer price inflation. Still, that inflation rate is nearly four times the BoE's 2% target and double the rate in the United States. Following the end of Silvana Tenreyro's tenure on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, fellow external member Swati Dhingra is likely to be alone in making the case that producer price inflation - rather than wage growth - is a better guide to future consumer price inflation trends. Annual producer price inflation fell to 0.1% in June, its lowest since December 2020, down from a high of nearly 20% last July, which it hit just a few months before CPI peaked at 11.1%.
Persons: BoE, Andrew Goodwin, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Ramsden, Peter Schaffrik, Cathal Kennedy, Silvana Tenreyro's, Swati Dhingra, Megan Greene, Bailey, Huw Pill, David Milliken, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Bank of England, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, Reuters, MPC, HSBC, RBC, Committee, Kroll Institute, Tenreyro, Monetary, Thomson Locations: Britain, United States, Germany
Argentina should adopt the US dollar to get inflation under control, the Cato Institute said. "This type of hard dollar regime is exactly what Argentina needs now." This type of hard dollar regime is exactly what Argentina needs now," Cato researchers wrote in a paper published on Thursday. A top presidential candidate has proposed switching to the dollar as a way to tame inflation, which is soaring more than 100%. Other countries use the dollar as their primary currency or alongside a local currency, including some in Latin America.
Persons: Cato, Steve Hanke, Argentina's, Hanke, dollarization Organizations: Cato Institute, Service, Argentine, International Monetary Fund, Johns Hopkins University Locations: Argentina, Wall, Silicon, Latin America
The billionaire Starwood CEO predicted a coming recession and "Category 5 hurricane" in the real estate sector. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyA storm is headed for the real estate sector, and a recession is coming despite growing talk of a soft landing, according to real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht. Higher rates and tighter financial conditions spell trouble for the real estate sector in particular. "I like to say there's a hurricane over real estate right now. While labor markets are hot still, inflation is steadily cooling, leading to talk of a Goldilocks scenario in which the Fed can lower inflation without crushing demand or crimping growth.
Persons: Barry Sternlicht, Sternlicht, David Rubenstein Organizations: Starwood, Service, Starwood Capital CEO, Bloomberg Wealth, Board Locations: Wall, Silicon
Breakingviews category · July 27, 2023 · 9:08 AM UTCThe world is getting hotter, but when it comes to achieving net zero investors are cooling. In November 2021 many large corporations gathering at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow committed to decarbonising their operations by 2050 in an attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Less than two years on, despite the world hitting its highest-ever average temperature, the pressure is off. Glencore , the $75 billion Swiss group that is one of the world’s biggest coal miners, makes an interesting case study for what’s changed.
Persons: what’s Locations: Glasgow
The Nikkei newspaper reported the central bank will maintain its 0.5% cap for the 10-year government bond yield, but discuss allowing long-term interest rates to rise above that level by a certain degree. Under yield curve control (YCC), the BOJ guides the 10-year bond yield around 0% and sets an allowance band of 0.5% above and below that target. At the two-day meeting ending on Friday, the BOJ is widely expected to maintain the 10-year yield target and a -0.1% target set for short-term interest rates. The BOJ's meeting comes after the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to raise interest rates, a move that further widens the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan. That changed last year, when soaring commodity prices pushed inflation above the 2% target and gave investors reason to attack the yield cap.
Persons: Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Shinichi Uchida's, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes, Conor Humphries Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Federal, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, United States, Japan
ET, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference at 2.30 p.m. (You'll be able to watch it live here .) The Fed is likely to raise its benchmark policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, a 22-year high. Investors will watch for clues about whether this is the last hike of the cycle and when policy makers might start cutting rates. Traders expect that the Fed will signal more future tightening to tame inflation, which could crimp energy demand. The rise followed a wild late session yesterday fueled by news of a deal with Banc of California.
Persons: Jerome Powell, You'll, Stocks, Brent Organizations: Federal, Fed, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, Oil, Traders, Pacific, Boeing Locations: U.S, California
What to expect from the Fed’s decision on rates
  + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. The Commerce Department releases the June reading of the Fed’s favorite inflation measure Friday. The Fed held rates steady for nine straight meetings over the span of a year the last time it paused a rate-hiking campaign in 2006. Nearly all of the Fed’s decisions have been unanimous since the central bank began lifting rates in March 2022, with the exception of two meetings early in the Fed’s current inflation battle.
Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, , José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, , The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming,
The two-day jump in gasoline prices — the biggest in a year — is combining with a rally in wheat and other agricultural commodities. All told, gas prices have spiked 9 cents in 48 hours. Lower gas prices have been central to progress on slowing price increases. The IMF warned on Tuesday that grain prices could rise by 10% to 15% because of the collapse of the grain deal. Yawger noted that soybean futures have also climbed sharply amid concerns about high heat hurting crops in the United States.
Persons: haven’t, , , Patrick De Haan, unnerve, Jerome Powell, Francisco Blanch, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Robert Yawger, Yawger, De Haan Organizations: New York CNN, Federal Reserve, AAA, unnerve ’, Bank of America, RSM, IMF, Mizuho Securities, Hurricanes, Nature, ExxonMobil, CNN Locations: Russia, Ukraine, United States, Baton Rouge
Fed officials will release their decision at 2 p.m., after which Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, will hold a news conference. Policymakers are expected to raise rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent this week, their 11th move since they began to lift borrowing costs in March 2022. Officials ratcheted rates higher rapidly last year but have been slowing their campaign for months, even skipping an adjustment in June after 10 consecutive moves. Fed officials will have plenty of time, and plenty of data to parse, before they release their next rate decision and a fresh set of quarterly economic projections on Sept. 20. Still, investors and Fed watchers in general will be monitoring a few key developments on Wednesday.
Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve
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