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☆ Morning Bid: Europe has a data fest, and growth worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya RanganathanTuesday's a busy day for European markets. We get preliminary growth numbers for the euro zone, inflation in Italy, jobless data for Britain and, crucially, the German economic sentiment ZEW survey. No surprises are seen in euro zone GDP data - rather, analysts assume the tepid pace seen in the fourth quarter hasn't picked up. That leaves the German ZEW survey for May in the spotlight. UK labour market data is a biggie too for sterling this week, offering insight into the headline pay growth that the hawkish Bank of England is eyeing.

☆ Thai Q1 GDP grows 2.7% y/y, beats expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

BANGKOK, May 15 (Reuters) - Thailand's economy expanded 2.7% in the first quarter from a year earlier, official data showed on Monday, faster than expectations, as private consumption and tourism rebounded. On a quarterly basis, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in the March quarter, data from the National Economic and Social Development Council showed. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 2.3% year-on-year and 1.7% quarter-on-quarter. Reporting by Orathai Sriring, Kitiphong Thaichareon and Satawasin Staporncharnchai; Editing by Martin PettyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Thai Q1 GDP growth beats forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew 2.7% in the January-March period from a year earlier, data from the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) showed. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 2.3% year-on-year in the January-March period after increasing 1.4% in the previous three months. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in the March quarter, versus a forecast rise of 1.7%. Fourth quarter GDP in 2022 was revised to a 1.1% contraction, from a earlier 1.5% fall. The NESDC kept its 2023 GDP growth forecast at 2.7% to 3.7%.

The NESDC kept its 2023 GDP growth forecast unchanged at between 2.7% and 3.7%. It also kept its forecast for 2023 foreign tourist arrivals at 28 million. Thailand beat its tourism target in 2022 with 11.15 million foreign visitors. Pre-pandemic 2019 saw a record of nearly 40 million foreign tourists, who spent 1.91 trillion baht ($56 billion). The NESDC also kept its 2023 forecasts for goods exports to drop 1.6% and headline inflation to be between 2.5% and 3.5%.

May 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. If the April snapshots of retail sales, urban investment and industrial production come in weaker than expected - and consensus forecasts are for solid rebounds from the month before - the China bears and doomsters will be in the ascendancy. Broader market sentiment may be reasonably well supported after Wall Street eked out modest gains on Monday despite alarming slump in a key index of U.S. factory activity and another day of deadlock in the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Australia consumer sentiment (May)- China investment, retail sales, industrial output (April)- Euro zone GDP (Q1, flash estimate)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

JAKARTA, May 10 (Reuters) - Sales of electric cars in Indonesia jumped last month after the government launched tax incentives, auto executives said, in an early sign that electric vehicle (EV) adoption is gaining traction in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Effective from April, Indonesia cut the value-added tax (VAT) on electric cars from 11% to just 1%, provided they are manufactured with at least 40% local content. Hyundai aims to sell 10,000 units of IONIQ 5 in Indonesia this year, helped by the tax cut and as a shortage in semiconductor chips eases, he said. The two models are the most popular electric cars in Indonesia. Hyundai's Yoon said the South Korean company plans to introduce more battery-EV models in Indonesia to capture the growing market.

☆ Singapore bank OCBC posts record quarterly profit, upgrades margin guidance
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Yantoultra Ngui | Thomson Reuters | Yantoultra Ngui Is A Southeast Asia Deals Correspondent With Reuters In Singapore | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

OCBC, which is also Southeast Asia's second-biggest bank by assets, said January-March net profit rose 39% to S$1.88 billion ($1.42 billion), beating the mean estimate of S$1.74 billion from five analysts polled by Refinitiv. OCBC reported a total net interest margin, a key gauge of profitability, of 2.30% for the first quarter, up from 1.55% in the same period a year earlier. The bank forecast a full-year net interest margin of about 2.2%, up from 2.1% previously. The first quarter was also strong for Singapore's other major banks, with larger peer DBS Group (DBSM.SI) reporting last week a 43% jump in first quarter net profit that was also a record. Smaller United Overseas Bank (UOBH.SI) posted last month a 74% surge in core net profit.

OCBC, which is also Southeast Asia's second-biggest bank by assets, said January-March net profit rose to a record S$1.88 billion ($1.42 billion) from S$1.36 billion a year earlier. The bank reported a total net interest margin, a key gauge of profitability, of 2.30% for the first quarter, up from 1.55% in the same period a year earlier. OCBC expected full-year net interest margin in the region of 2.2%. The first quarter was also strong for Singapore's other major banks, with larger peer DBS Group (DBSM.SI) reporting last week a 43% jump in first quarter net profit that was also a record. Smaller United Overseas Bank (UOBH.SI) posted last month a 74% surge in core net profit.

☆ Singapore bank OCBC's Q1 net profit jumps 39% to record $1.42 bln
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - Singapore's second biggest lender Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC) (OCBC.SI) on Wednesday reported a 39% jump in its first-quarter net profit from a year earlier on the back of strong net interest income growth. OCBC, which is also Southeast Asia's second biggest bank by assets, said January-March net profit jumped to a record S$1.88 billion ($1.42 billion) from S$1.36 billion a year earlier. That beat the mean estimate of S$1.74 billion from five analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. ($1 = 1.3245 Singapore dollars)Reporting by Yantoultra Ngui; Editing by Tom HogueOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Thailand election: Campaign freebies may be a 'band-aid solution' with fiscal risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nyshka Chandran | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

A Thai protester with a sign calling for equal workers' rights and a fair election at a Labor Day rally in Bangkok in 2023. Experts widely agree that pro-democracy groups are expected to perform strongly in light of deep-seated discontent with the current military-affiliated administration. Contenders can be divided into two categories: parties that support the pro-military establishment and a pro-democracy camp of opposition factions. Few details have been provided about funding, worrying economists who say those policies would weigh on already stretched public finances after significant fiscal support during the pandemic. Only the Move Forward party has campaigned on changing the defamation law, while Pheu Thai previously said it will consider discussing it in Parliament.

SINGAPORE, May 8 (Reuters) - China is hammering out details with Singapore on a bilateral visa-free travel arrangement, according to Beijing's embassy, a move that could boost arrivals in the city-state from what was its biggest pre-pandemic tourism market. There were 3.6 million Chinese visitors to Singapore in 2019, more than any other country, who spent a combined S$4.1 billion ($3.09 billion). Many Chinese have in recent years been keen to invest, move assets or relocate to Singapore, with some buying into luxury real estate. Among Singapore's 4 million citizens and permanent residents, three-quarters are of Chinese ethnicity and many speak Mandarin, making it easy for mainland Chinese to navigate the country. Singaporeans were allowed 15-day visa-free visits prior to the pandemic.

☆ Here are 10 global stocks analyst love coming out of the earnings week, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

However, according to strategists at Bank of America, there were more downward than upward revisions of company earnings estimates by analysts. The investment bank said European companies saw a decrease in their earnings per share (EPS) revision ratio to 0.85 in April, down from 1.12 in March. Analysts tend to downgrade stocks despite companies reporting bumper profits if those earnings are unlikely to grow in the future. The below table highlights 10 European large-cap stocks with high EPS revision ratio, according to Bank of America. The EPS revision ratio for Novo Nordisk was also in positive territory, thanks to its blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy and others in the pipeline.

☆ China's Hozon to produce EVs in Thailand for Southeast Asian market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BANGKOK, May 6 (Reuters) - China's Hozon New Energy Automobile will make electric vehicles in Thailand for the Southeast Asian market, a Thai official said on Saturday, as it follows others in building facilities in the region's major auto production hub. Hozon signed an agreement with Thailand's Bangchan General Assembly this week to start production of its NETA V model, expected in 2024, Thai government spokesperson Tipanan Sirichana said in a statement. The EV maker launched its NETA V model in the Thai market last year and planned to start offering its NETA U and NETA S models in the near future, Tipanan said. (TSLA.O)Last month, a Thai official said China's Changan Auto (000625.SZ) would invest $285 million in a facility in Thailand. It has set a target that 30% of domestic auto production be EVs by 2030.

☆ IMF sees uncertainty over Japan's monetary policy, spillover globally
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While most Asian central banks must keep tightening monetary policy, Japan remains an exception with inflation still moderate - though this could change. "There is uncertainty around the direction of monetary policy in Japan, amid a rise in inflation," Srinivasan said. "Changes in Japan's monetary policy that lead to further increases in government bond yields could have global spillovers through Japanese investors, who have large investment positions in debt instruments abroad," Srinivasan said. With inflation exceeding its 2% target, markets are rife with speculation the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could modify its bond yield control policy in coming months. The BOJ kept ultra-low interest rates on Friday but announced a plan to review its past monetary policy moves, laying the groundwork for new governor Kazuo Ueda to phase out his predecessor's massive stimulus programme.

This was down from March's 27.6 million bpd, which in turn was lower than February's 29.4 million bpd and the 29.13 million bpd in January. Asia crude oil imports vs Brent priceINDIA SLOWS IMPORTSThis could extend to other major buyers in Asia, with the region's second-biggest importer India showing signs of moderating crude appetite in April. Imports were estimated at 4.60 million bpd in April, down from the eight-month high of 5.02 million bpd in March. Russian crude is also winning against Saudi oil in China, with April arrivals of 2.10 million bpd beating out the 1.73 million bpd from the Middle East's top exporter. The overall view on Asia's imports is that April showed a loss of momentum after a strong start to the year.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: One last hike?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. It's Fed Day, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is underway, and investors seem to be holding their breath as the meeting is expected to conclude with another 25-basis-point rate hike. As BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income Rick Reider put it, "This is transitioning to the market's No. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ The Fed could deliver the final rate hike of a historically aggressive cycle today. Here's what to know.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

All eyes are on the Fed today as officials ready their decision on what could be the final rate hike of the cycle. We'll hear from central bank chief Jerome Powell today at 2 p.m. The last time the fed funds rate hit that level was during the housing boom in 2006, in the run up to the 2008 crisis. Broadly, markets are acting as if today's potential rate hike will be the final one of the Fed's lengthy, aggressive cycle that's brought so far nine consecutive raises, the last of which was a 25 basis-point move in February. "The market is telling you, in terms of forward yield curves, that they expect the Fed to make a mistake."

Unlike much of the past 15 years, euro strength is on the ECB's side as it meets on Thursday. Indeed, ECB President Christine Lagarde and chief economist Philip Lane littered speeches with warning shots about an excessive euro strength when the euro last snarled up to this extent in October 2020. Lagarde's predecessors Mario Draghi and Jean-Claude Trichet similarly weighed in with verbal intervention to cool periodic 10% surges in the trade-weighted euro over its history. Euro strength has built on belated ECB interest rate hikes since July - up some 350 basis points to 3.0% so far and expected to go up at least another 25 bps this week. So should euro strength be finally embraced by ECB as way of slaying the inflation beast?

☆ Bill Ackman jabs at old rival Carl Icahn after short-seller Hindenburg's bombshell report
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bill Ackman said Tuesday that there's a "karmic quality" to Hindenburg Research's attack on his old rival Carl Icahn. Hindenburg disclosed a short position against Icahn's business empire in a bombshell report published Tuesday. "There is a karmic quality to this short report that reinforces the notion of a circle of life and death," Ackman tweeted. Ackman and Icahn feuded over a decade ago after Ackman made a $1 billion bet against Herbalife, which he alleged was a pyramid scheme. Read more: The short seller that took on Asia's richest man has a new target: Wall Street legend Carl Icahn

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The final hike?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. That happened to be the name of Paul Volcker's autobiography: 'Keeping at It.' Jerome Powell is literally taking a page out of Paul Volcker's playbook," said Conzo. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Thailand in talks with CATL, others on potential battery plants, govt official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Devjyot Ghoshal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"We are talking to many companies, not only CATL but many companies in the battery industry," said Narit Therdsteerasukdi, Secretary General of Thailand Board of Investment (BOI). CATL, the world's dominant battery supplier with a 37% market share, currently has no production facilities in Southeast Asia, its website shows. In the past few years, Thailand has drawn investments from EV companies, mainly Chinese, including Great Wall Motors and BYD Co (002594.SZ). Narit said the government's goal was to direct support and subsidies to land larger battery production facilities. CATL currently has 13 battery production hubs, 11 in China, one in Hungary and one in Germany.

☆ Activist investor Carl Icahn's wealth plunged by $10 billion after a short-seller accused his company of running a 'Ponzi-like' structure
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Hindenburg Research released a report alleging "Ponzi-like" economic structures at Icahn Enterprises. Shares of Icahn Enterprises closed 20% lower at $40.36 on Tuesday. Activist investor Carl Icahn's wealth plunged by $10 billion on Tuesday after Hindenburg Research — a short-seller that took on one of Asia's richest men earlier this year — targeted Icahn Enterprises with a scathing report. As Icahn derives his wealth from an 89% stake in Icahn Enterprises, his fortune was hit by the rout. Insider was unable to reach Icahn Enterprises via phone outside regular business hours.

The resumption of bilateral financial discussions comes ahead of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's planned visit to South Korea on Sunday and Monday for talks with President Yoon Suk Yeol. It also came as Asian policymakers, gathering for the annual Asian Development Bank (ADB) meeting this week in the South Korean city of Incheon, discussed regional economic challenges and ways to beef up buffers against various shocks. In a joint statement issued after their meeting on Tuesday, Asian finance leaders warned of risks to the region's economy and called for countries to stay vigilant to potential spillovers from the recent U.S. and European banking sector turmoil. Japan and South Korea will resume regular finance dialogue, likely to be held annually, at "an appropriate timing," Suzuki told reporters after the bilateral meeting. Choo is expected to visit Japan this year for another meeting with Suzuki, South Korea's finance ministry said.

The resumption of bilateral financial discussions comes ahead of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's planned visit to South Korea on Sunday and Monday for talks with President Yoon Suk Yeol. Japan and South Korea will resume regular finance dialogue, likely to be held annually, at "an appropriate timing," Suzuki told reporters after the bilateral meeting. Washington has pressed both countries to resolve these disputes to better counter rising threats from China and North Korea and other regional challenges. Under Yoon, South Korea has resumed trilateral military drills and agreed to more intelligence sharing on issues like tracking ballistic missile launches from North Korea. China's finance minister and central bank head were not present at a trilateral meeting, with their deputies attending instead.

☆ IMF raises Asia's economic forecast on China recovery, warns of risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Asia and Pacific will be the most dynamic of the world's major regions in 2023, predominantly driven by the buoyant outlook for China and India," the IMF said its regional economic outlook report. "As in the rest of the world, domestic demand is expected to remain the largest growth driver across Asia in 2023." Asia's economy is expected to expand 4.6% this year after a 3.8% increase in 2022, contributing around 70% of global growth, the IMF said, upgrading its forecast by 0.3 of a percentage point from October. "The costs of failing to bring inflation below target are likely to outweigh any benefits from keeping monetary conditions loose," the IMF said. "Insufficient tightening in the short term would require disproportionately more monetary tightening later to avoid high inflation becoming ingrained, making a larger contraction more likely."

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