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☆ UK housing market hit by widest prices falls since 2009 - RICS
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance, which measures the gap between the percentage of surveyors seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -47, the lowest since April 2009, from -42 in December. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS, said the overall mood of the market as measured by surveyors remained subdued. Other housing market measures have also recently shown a loss of momentum following the surge in demand seen during the coronavirus pandemic. A Reuters poll of economists and analysts in November predicted house prices would fall around 5% this year having surged by 28% since the start of the pandemic in 2020. RICS said the rental market continued to show strong interest from tenants with limited availability of stock.

Last week, Bailey signalled the tide was turning on inflation, even if it was too soon to declare victory. We have got the largest upside skew in our forecasts that we have ever had on inflation," Bailey said. Haskel aligned himself with Catherine Mann who also sees big upside risks to the BoE's price forecasts. By contrast, Tenreyro said the full force of the BoE's rate hikes over the last year had yet to be felt, with economic momentum already fading. "It's crucial to see it through, that we do enough to address potential upside risks to inflation," he said.

☆ Bank of England's Bailey speaks to lawmakers after hint of rate hike pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Below are quotes from Bailey and his colleagues in a question-and-answer session with parliament's Treasury Committee. BAILEY ON PERSISTENCE OF INFLATION"We are concerned about persistence (of inflation) and that's why, frankly, we raised interest rates this time... BAILEY ON PAY DEMANDS"What I would urge is that - particularly going forwards because we think inflation is going to fall very rapidly - that is taken into account." CHIEF ECONOMIST HUW PILL ON POLICY TIGHTENING"It's crucial to see it through, that we do enough to address potential upside risks to inflation." Reporting by William Schomberg, Suban Abdulla, and Sarah Young; editing by William JamesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of England misses gilt auction sales target for first time
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The bank's QE gilt holdings now stand at 825 billion pounds, down by 50 billion pounds from their peak in December 2021. In the first three months of 2023 it plans to sell 9.75 billion pounds of short-, medium- and long-dated gilts. Overall, the central bank is seeking to reduce its gilt holdings by 80 billion pounds over 12 months, split roughly equally between outright sales and maturing gilts. Earlier on Thursday, before the auction, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told a panel of lawmakers that he had not seen any evidence of market disturbance from the central bank's QT sales. Under the terms of the its QT auction programme, the BoE has the option of selling less than the amount planned at a particular auction if it receives unattractively low bids.

☆ All you need to know about ChatGPT, the A.I. chatbot that's got the world talking and tech giants clashing
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Ryan Browne | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

ChatGPT is an AI chatbot developed by San Francisco-based startup OpenAI. These are tools that allow users to enter written prompts and receive new human-like text or images and videos generated by the AI. With a whopping 175 billion parameters, GPT-3 is one of the largest and most powerful language processing AI models to date. watch nowWhat makes ChatGPT so impressive is its ability to produce human-like responses, thanks in no small part to the vast amounts of data it is trained on. No generative AI application has quite managed to achieve the kind of influence and virality that ChatGPT has.

☆ Exclusive: The FBI's McGonigal labyrinth
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Mattathias Schwartz | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +28 min

She never saw McGonigal pay. "The notion that Mr. Deripaska is some proxy for the Russian state is a blatant lie," Ruben Bunyatyan, a spokesperson for Deripaska, told Insider by email. McGonigal was not charged with espionage, and although there is currently no evidence that McGonigal committed espionage, an FBI source told Insider that the investigation is ongoing. At the FBI, McGonigal racked up a string of big cases and promotions. "He said he needed to make more money," Guerriero told Insider.

☆ UK house prices stabilise after four-month fall, Halifax says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - British house prices were unchanged in January after falling in month-on-month terms in each of the previous four months after borrowing costs rose, mortgage lender Halifax said on Tuesday. The annual rate of house price growth slowed to 1.9%, the weakest increase in three years, Halifax said. Kim Kinnaird, a director at Halifax Mortgages, said the trend of higher borrowing costs hitting demand was likely to continue in 2023. "Lower house prices and the potential for interest rates to peak below the level being anticipated last year should lead to an improvement in home-buying affordability over time." Rival mortgage lender Nationwide said last week its measure of house prices dropped by a bigger-than-expected 0.6% in January and was 3.2% below its peak in August.

☆ Britain presses on with proposals for a digital pound
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Pound coins are seen in the photo illustration taken in Manchester, Britain September 6, 2017. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the implications of a digital pound - including privacy issues - had to be considered. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak asked the BoE to look into the case for a CBDC when he was finance minister in 2021. Unlike cryptoassets, the digital pound would be issued by the central bank and not the private sector and its value would be fixed. Instead they would have accounts with private digital wallet providers, which would provide digital pounds over public infrastructure.

☆ BoE's Pill says important not to raise interest rates too high
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Friday it was important not to raise borrowing costs too high, a day after the British central bank signalled it was close to pausing a run of interest rate hikes which began in December 2021. "We have to recognise that we have done a lot with monetary policy already," Pill told Times Radio. On Thursday, the BoE raised interest rates to 4%, their highest since 2008, but it dropped language it previously used about its readiness to act "forcefully" if needed to contain inflation pressures. "Interest rates have risen by almost 400 basis points over ... little more than a year and, given the lags in the transmission of monetary policy, there's quite a lot of the effects of those raises in interest rates still to come through," Pill said. While the MPC was determined to "see the job through," Pill also said: "It's also important that we enguard against the possibility of doing too much."

Softening their forecasts of recession this year, the BoE's nine interest rate-setters voted 7-2 to increase Bank Rate to 4.0% - its highest since 2008 - from 3.5%. The European Central Bank looks set to raise rates by a half a percentage point later on Thursday to 2.5%. Previously the BoE had forecast 2023 inflation at around 5%. Previously the BoE has said that "it will respond forcefully, as necessary" to signs of further inflation pressure, and "further increases in Bank Rate may be required". As a result, the BoE saw Britain's economy still below its pre-pandemic size until after 2025, representing seven lost years for growth.

In both the United States and Europe, the words of central bankers led investors to cut their estimates of the peak or "terminal" rate expected in the current tightening cycle. With financial conditions loosening despite rising policy rates, "central banks must...be resolute in their fight against inflation and ensure policy remains appropriately tight long enough to durably bring inflation back to target," Adrian and others wrote. The European Central Bank seems furthest from a likely stopping point. Combined, the statements mark the start of the endgame for central banks that were slow to recognize the onset of inflation last year before engaging in a record-setting round of rate increases. Central bankers long ago stopped using the word "transitory" in reference to inflation that proved faster and more persistent than any expected.

Softening their forecasts of recession this year, the BoE's nine interest rate-setters voted 7-2 to increase Bank Rate to 4.0% - its highest since 2008 - from 3.5%. The announcement comes a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve slowed the pace of its rate hikes with a smaller quarter-point move, but said it expected further increases would be needed. The European Central Bank raised rates by a half a percentage point on Thursday to 2.5%. They said further interest rate hikes would hinge on evidence of more persistent price pressures appearing. That represented a signal to investors that its sharp run of rate hikes might be coming to an end.

☆ BoE set to lift rates to 14-year high, might hint at next moves
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The European Central Bank looks set to raise rates by a half a percentage point on Thursday to 2.5% and the main question for investors is how much more tightening it will signal. LOWER RATES PEAKAs of Wednesday, investors were pricing a roughly two-in-three chance that BoE rates will peak at 4.5% by June, with the possibility of an earlier halt at 4.25%. The BoE's inflation forecasts are also likely to change with recent sharp falls in international gas prices and a rise in the value of sterling lowering inflation later this year. The BoE is also due to update its estimate of the rate of unemployment that does not push up inflation. A rise in the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment would represent a lower speed limit on Britain's already slow economy.

☆ New Hope for Russiagate Truths
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Holman W. Jenkins | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Holman W. Jenkins Jr. is a member of the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Jenkins joined the Journal in May 1992 as a writer for the editorial page in New York. In February 1994, he moved to Hong Kong as editor of The Asian Wall Street Journal's editorial page. Mr. Jenkins won a 1997 Gerald Loeb Award for distinguished business and financial coverage. Born in Philadelphia, Mr. Jenkins received a bachelor's degree from Hobart and William Smith Colleges and a master's degree in journalism from Northwestern University.

☆ UK shop price inflation hits record 8% in January: BRC
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] People shop next to the clubcard price branding inside a branch of a Tesco Extra Supermarket in London, Britain, February 10, 2022. Overall food prices, which include longer-life goods, rose by 13.8%, while non-food prices were 5.1% higher. BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said she did not think shop prices had peaked yet, as retailers were still facing rising energy bills and labour shortages. The BRC collected its price data between Jan. 1 and Jan. 7. Figures released by market research company Kantar on Tuesday , which covered the four weeks to Jan. 22, showed annual grocery price inflation of 16.7%.

☆ UK set for biggest strike action in years as teachers, civil servants walk out
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Michael Holden | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On Wednesday, about 300,000 teachers will take action, along with 100,000 civil servants from more than 120 government departments, and tens of thousands of university lecturers and rail workers. 'MOST DAYS LOST FOR 30 YEARS'Between June and November, more days were lost to industrial action than in any six months for over 30 years, according to official data. An Ipsos poll released on Wednesday suggested the public was divided on the multiple strike action, with 40% supporting the action and 38% opposed. It put the estimated impact of the teachers' strikes at about 20 million pounds a day. ($1 = 0.8130 pound)Reporting by Michael Holden, Alistair Smout and William Schomberg; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ IMF slashes UK growth outlook, adding pressure on finance minister Hunt
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Henry NichollsLONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Britain is the only Group of Seven nation to have suffered a cut to its 2023 economic growth outlook in International Monetary Fund forecasts published on Tuesday, adding to pressure on finance minister Jeremy Hunt to come up with a growth plan. Britain's flagging economy now looks set to shrink by 0.6% this year, a sharp downgrade from previously expected growth of 0.3% in the IMF's last forecast in October. All other G7 economies are predicted to grow this year, mostly at a stronger pace than the IMF forecast three months ago. Responding to the IMF report, Hunt said nearly all advanced economies were facing headwinds, and that past forecasts from a range of bodies including the IMF had proven too gloomy about Britain's prospects. Hunt is due to announce measures that he hopes will speed up growth in a budget statement on March 15.

☆ UK and EU reach post-Brexit customs deal for N.Ireland-The Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A 'no entry' sign is seen near the Stormont Parliament Buildings in Belfast, Northern Ireland June 13, 2022. The EU has accepted a plan that would avoid the need for routine checks on products going into Northern Ireland, the newspaper reported on Tuesday. Both sides were also hammering out details of a veterinary checks deal, The Times said. A UK government spokesperson said its priority is to protect the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement and to preserve political stability in Northern Ireland and the UK internal market. After months of tensions between London, Brussels, Belfast and Dublin, progress has recently been made in the dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

☆ Three years on, Britain still waits for Brexit dividend
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Britain exited the EU on Jan. 31, 2020, though remained in the bloc's single market and customs union for 11 more months. The government, led by Brexit-supporting Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, says Britain is prospering with new-found freedoms. "Our problems pre-date Brexit," Lyons said, pointing to chronically low rates of investment in Britain. Exports, especially in goods, have disappointed over the last three years - despite high hopes for a "Global Britain" rebalancing of the economy after Brexit. Britain still boasts higher rates of employment and lower unemployment than most EU countries but there are some signs that Brexit may have impacted the labour market too.

☆ U.S. freestyle skier dies in avalanche in Japan
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Chantal Da Silva | Chantal Da Silva Is A Breaking News Editor For Nbc News Digital Based In London. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

A U.S. freestyle skier has died after being caught in an avalanche in Japan on Sunday, his family confirmed. Weather authorities had issued an avalanche warning for the area after days of heavy snowfall. Police officers board a gondola heading to the site of an avalanche in the village of Otari, Japan on Sunday. "Such a bright light lost," wrote Marielle Thompson, a Canadian Olympic freestyle skier. “Wish we had more time to ski these past few years,” Joss Christensen, a U.S. freestyle skier from Park City, Utah, wrote.

By announcing an inflation goal, central bankers feel they build credibility for themselves and focus the planning of households and firms in ways that help keep inflation controlled. Those decades, up to the end of the first year of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, saw inflation largely contained. Achieving that target is just core to our overall monetary policy," Brainard said, a sentiment echoed in central bank headquarters from Frankfurt to London to Tokyo. "Let me be quite clear, there are no ifs or buts in our commitment to the 2% inflation target," Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last year. Should inflation prove stickier than expected, achieving the central bank's 2% inflation goal could mean even more losses.

☆ 10 things about ancient Egypt that movies and TV got wrong, according to an expert
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Marianne Guenot | Carter Thallon | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Movies and television shape what people think about ancient Egypt. Here are 10 things that "Moon Knight", "The Mummy", and others got wrong and one they got right. When it comes to ancient Egypt, they can draw the portrait of pharaohs ruling Egypt with an iron fist, cruel torture, and wicked booby-trapped pyramids. "All of the sarcophagi that I've seen in Egypt were made of stone," said Browder, an author of several books on ancient Egypt. The curse that set Imhotep on his murderous path in "The Mummy" has no historical basisIn "The Mummy," Imhotep was mummified alive.

☆ Exclusive: Inside the extramarital affair and cash-fueled double life of Charles McGonigal, the FBI spy-hunter indicted for allegedly taking Russian money
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Mattathias Schwartz | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

She had dated federal law enforcement officials before. "Charlie McGonigal knew everybody in the national security and law enforcement world," Guerriero said, in an exclusive interview with Insider. One law enforcement source estimated that McGonigal stood to make roughly $300,000 to $350,000 a year, including annual bonuses. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, whom she knew from law enforcement circles, let her stay in a guest bedroom. During her relationship with McGonigal, Guerriero says, they never talked about politics.

☆ UK's Energy Markets Financing Scheme closes after no applications
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Britain's finance ministry said on Friday that the Energy Markets Financing Scheme - which it launched last year with the Bank of England to help energy firms cope with surging power prices - had received no applications and had closed. "Since the launch of the scheme, prices in the wholesale gas markets have declined markedly and this has reduced some of the pressure facing eligible energy firms," the Treasury said. The ministry and the BoE would continue to monitor developments in energy markets, it said in a statement. The programme was open for applications between Oct. 17 and Jan. 27. Writing by William Schomberg; editing by David MillikenOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ UK retail sales volumes slide at fastest rate since April, CBI reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - British retail sales volumes slid over the last month at the fastest rate since April last year, underlining the weak state of the consumer economy in the face of strong inflation, a survey showed on Thursday. The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) sales balance, which included a couple of days of the Christmas trading period, fell to -23 from +11 in December's report, meaning more store chains reported a drop in retail sales than a rise. The survey pointed to another drop in retail sales next month. "Retailers began the new year with a return to falling sales volumes, as the sector continues to face the twin headwinds of rising costs and squeezed household incomes," CBI Martin Sartorius said. The survey of 59 retailers - mostly large store chains - was conducted between Dec. 22 and Jan. 13.

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