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Now, with a potential recession on the horizon, economists and researchers are convinced that 2023 will usher in even more significant changes to the workplace. CNBC Make It spoke with three experts about the biggest trends that will shape work this year. Hiring will slow in 2023 — but jobseekers will still hold the powerEven though several U.S. companies have slashed staff in recent months, workers will continue to have the upper hand in the labor market this year. Education, government, health care and retail are among the industries where hiring has maintained its momentum, and are poised for continued growth in 2023. "All of this is creating a manager shortage, which just exacerbates the challenges companies are facing attracting and retaining talent," she adds.
As populations decline and Americans rethink work, it could be time to start paying parents. Like many of the stay-at-home parents Insider spoke to, Carpenter began his work in reaction to an economic reality. As workers across industries rethink what they want out of work, parents could be the final frontier. That leaves both working and stay-at-home parents to create their own economic models, and perhaps dissuades some Americans from ever becoming parents. The idea of paying parents in order to boost birth rates and ensure better outcomes for those children isn't new.
That was up from 10% in January 2022, but the pessimists were far outnumbered, with 71% of tech workers feeling positive. Many people spent Covid-19 lockdowns developing their digital skills, and plenty wound up switching from other sectors, like retail or education, into tech roles elsewhere. Professional and business services roles, which include engineering and “computer services,” were down 6,000 last month from November. Even so, employers’ broad appetite for tech skills could put something of a floor under wages — and prop up the appeal of tech roles in general — even as the economy slows. Experienced tech workers, rather than those new to the field, largely drove those pay gains, the jobs platform Hired found in research published in September.
That’s the message Thursday from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, speaking at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. “Even with the recent moderation, inflation remains high, and policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for some time to make sure inflation returns to 2% on a sustained basis,” Brainard said. After four consecutive blockbuster hikes that were three-quarters of a point in size, the Fed downshifted during its last meeting, approving a half-point increase. Still, Brainard said she believes it’s possible the Fed could achieve a soft landing — a reduction in inflation without a significant amount of job loss. “That said, I’d say for the United States, recent data suggests slightly better prospects that we could see continued disinflation in the context of moderate growth.”The next two-day meeting for the Fed’s rate-setting committee starts January 31.
The idea of "quiet quitting" may not be anything new. Thierry Delaporte, CEO and managing director at IT company Wipro Limited, also sees quiet quitting as a chance for leaders to reflect on how they need to adjust to the changing labor force. The term quiet quitting was coined in 2022 on social media — with different definitions. People who were unable to resign or were unsuccessful in changing their work environment started asking questions, he said. Long term, it's not just about quiet quitting either, the Davos panel suggested.
But mainstream economic data doesn't always reflect the struggle, according to William Spriggs, Howard University economics professor and chief economist for the AFL-CIO. Throughout the last year, employers claimed they were struggling to staff properly, citing a lack of workers. But as the workforce picked up, employers weren't actually hiring, Spriggs said. Specifically, he said, they weren't hiring Black workers. Watch the video to learn more about how implicit bias corrupts economic data and therefore our understanding of the current labor landscape.
New Delhi CNN —India will overtake China this year to become the world’s most populous country. That’s because India is simply not creating employment opportunities for the millions of young job seekers already entering the workforce every year. A huge crowd thronged India Gate on New Year's Eve on December 31, 2022 in New Delhi, India. The country needs to create at least 90 million new non-farm jobs by 2030 to absorb new workers, according to a 2020 report by McKinsey Global Institute. But, according to a former central banker, even this growth is “insufficient.”“A lot of this growth is jobless growth.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow implicit bias corrupts economic data: AFL-CIO Chief Economist William SpriggsAn economic slow down may hit the black labor force first, although AFL-CIO Chief Economist William Spriggs said traditional economic indicators may not show it. Watch the video to find out why.
China records first population decline in 60 years
  + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Simone Mccarthy | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Hong Kong CNN —China’s population shrank in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years, a new milestone in the country’s deepening demographic crisis with significant implications for its slowing economy. The population declined in 2022 to 1.411 billion, down some 850,000 people from the previous year, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced during a Tuesday briefing on annual data. The birth rate also fell to a record low of 6.77 births per 1,000, down from 7.52 a year earlier and the lowest level since the founding of Communist China in 1949. To arrest the falling birth rate, the Chinese government announced in 2015 that it would allow married couples to have two children. But after a brief uptick in 2016, the national birth rate has continued to fall.
Canada's consumer price index report for December, due on Tuesday, is expected to show headline inflation cooling to 6.3%, its lowest annual rate since last February, from 6.8% in November. If inflation expectations rise, it could push up wage demands, particularly in a tight labor market, leading to further price pressures. "One eye is on wage growth, which is strong but not too bad at the moment, but then this other idea (which is) on the price inflation for essentials that could keep wage demands high, as it affects inflation expectations." "If inflation slows and wage growth doesn't, then wages become more of a tailwind for inflation going forward. "What we really need to see in December is weaker price growth across the board."
London CNN —Germany’s economy grew slightly last year despite battling an energy crisis sparked by Russia’s war in Ukraine. The bank predicts the German economy will stagnate this year, rather than decline, as it had previously forecast. Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty ImagesEither way, it’s welcome news for Europe’s biggest economy. “The German economy has been more resilient than initially feared,” Jan-Christopher Scherer, a research associate at DIW Berlin, told CNN. About 40% of German companies expect business to decline in 2023, and another 35% think it will stagnate, according to a November survey of 2,500 firms conducted by the German Economic Institute.
Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. central bank is already adjusting to one unanticipated set of changes - an outbreak of inflation coupled with stalled growth in the U.S. labor force. "You have to identify the regime change ... Then you have to understand the transition dynamics ... and have a clear vision and insight into all of those ... "Markets calibrated to ... Chinese growth and low interest rates may prove fragile." Like recessions, which are typically identified only well after they have started, other economic turning points aren't always apparent in the moment. But as evidence of that accumulated following the 2007-2009 recession, it was only embodied into Fed policy in 2020 under a new approach that leaned against premature interest rate increases.
Payroll growth decelerated in December but was still better than expected, a sign that the labor market remains strong even as the Federal Reserve tries to slow economic growth. The job growth marked a small decrease from the 256,000 gain in November, which was revised down 7,000 from the initial estimate. Stock market futures rose following the release as investors look for signs that the jobs market is cooling and taking inflation lower as well. The relative strength in job growth comes despite repeated efforts by the Fed to slow the economy, the labor market in particular. The headline unemployment rate is tied for the lowest since 1969.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 223,000 last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Monthly job growth is well above the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working age population. "Through the rest of the report, the average hourly earnings month over month came in at 0.3%. But everything else about this shows a very, very resilient labor market which doesn’t bode well for a smaller rate hike. "Fed will look at these numbers and say that the labor market is still pretty robust and to the extent that they would like to see a bit of slack in the labor market."
The US economy added 223,000 jobs in December
  + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
Minneapolis CNN —The US economy added 223,000 jobs in December, according to the monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, capping a year of extraordinary job growth and marking the second-best year for the labor market in records that go back to 1939. Economists were expecting 200,000 job gains for the last month of the year, according to Refinitiv. December’s job total is lower than the downwardly revised 256,000 jobs added in November. Including last month’s gains, which are subject to revision, the economy added close to 4.5 million jobs in 2022. That’s the second-highest-ever total, after the 6.7 million jobs added in 2021 — a boomerang from 2020’s 9.3 million job losses.
The longer that job market strength persists, the more Fed officials may feel compelled to break it with ever-higher interest rates. "I don't think we can understate the importance of labor market outcomes," Duy wrote. Reuters Graphics'SURGE PRICING'The job market has befuddled central bankers during the COVID-19 pandemic as much as inflation. Early expectations that a flood of workers back into the labor market would ease wage and hiring conditions proved optimistic. Officials then expected inflation to rise for any number of reasons, from the Fed's own massive bond purchases to a steadily falling unemployment rate.
WASHINGTON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy appears headed for a soft landing, with recent economic data pointing to an ongoing recovery, not a recession, White House economist Heather Boushey told Reuters on Friday. Asked whether the United States could avoid a recession, Boushey, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said, "There are no indications that that is where we are now." "The steps have been taken and it looks like we are in a very good position to have that soft landing that everyone is talking about," she said. A soft landing is the ideal Federal Reserve policy goal after raising interest rates, a situation in which inflation slows but there are not enough job losses to trigger a recession. President Joe Biden had hoped to enact reforms to fund universal preschool and ensure improvements to the "care economy," but failed to win sufficient support in Congress.
"I think workers still have options, and I think that that's a beautiful thing," Labor Secretary Marty Walsh told Insider. Taken together — alongside structural labor shortages that have kept employers raising wages and vying for workers — the labor market is still looking strong for Americans. "We're seeing more people get back into the job market," Walsh said, noting that workers without college degrees are seeing more opportunity. "We are starting to see some retirees dip back into the labor market." The Black unemployment rate is still elevated, and, while more Black women joined the labor force in December, their unemployment rate went up.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailApprenticeship programs are key to filling specialty roles in America, says Labor Secretary WalshMarty Walsh, U.S. Labor Secretary, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss December's jobs report, how the immigration picture will play into the labor force, and more.
"Big Short" investor Michael Burry is surprised Salesforce stock didn't drop on job cut news. "CRM should have been down 25% on those job cuts. Job cuts are so not the reason to own that," he tweeted. "CRM should have been down 25% on those job cuts. Salesforce stock rose 3.6% after the announced cut to its labor force on Wednesday.
CFOTO | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesThe surge in Covid-19 cases in China is impacting the completion of manufacturing orders, according to CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data. "The container pickup, loading, and drayage (trucking) are also affected as all businesses are facing the impacts of COVID. Three major ports across China are experiencing supply chain delivery problems because of Covid, according to the note. "The booking cancellation is increasing as many factories can't operate properly due to a lot of workers getting invested with Covid," the report said. As a result of the Covid impact on trucking, MarineTraffic is seeing a slowdown in port productivity in Shanghai.
Remote work pushed housing trends into warp speedIn some ways, the pandemic's housing shifts were a long time coming. The shift to remote work also hastened many people's desire for more space. Across the country, remote workers chose to part ways with roommates or seek out larger homes. Elon Musk asserted his authority at Twitter by putting an end to remote work. On the other hand, as my colleague Aki Ito previously argued, a recession could further ingrain remote work as employers look to cut spending on real estate.
The JOLTS survey is closely watched by Federal Reserve officials for signs of labor market slack. The ISM Manufacturing Index for December came in at 48.4%, representing the percentage of companies showing expansion. On the jobs front, the JOLTS report showed a slight decrease in hiring and a bit of an increase in layoffs. The ISM report also showed that the labor market for the manufacturing sector is solid. The jobs index component of the reading rose 3 points to 51.4.
Worried about a career gap in your resume? Turns out, there's a pretty easy workaround that's been scientifically proven to lead to more job callbacks. Previous research has shown that hiring managers discriminate against candidates who have a break in their resume. Researchers were focused on seeing the impact for working mothers and tested resumes with no career break, resumes with an unexplained career break, and resumes with a break and brief explanation that they left the labor force to care for children. The new tenure format "draws attention to the applicants' job experience while also obfuscating employment gaps by omission."
Over 30,000 people attended a recruitment event for a Pakistani police force hiring around 1,600 new staff. So many people applied for jobs with the Islamabad police that they two-thirds filled the country's biggest stadium. Nearly a third of Pakistani's aged 15 to 29 are unemployed, 2022 data showed. There were so many applicants that they took up almost two-thirds of Pakistan's biggest stadium, the 48,000 capacity Jinnah Sports Stadium, which is usually used for soccer matches. Candidates who clear the written application will next be given physical tests, the police force said.
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