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☆ Global market reaction to a week of war in Israel
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Below are five charts showing the volatile response of global financial markets to this week's war between Israel and Hamas. 1/TAKING STOCKMSCI's main world stocks index (.MIWD00000PUS) has reacted to the conflict by notching up its best week in almost two months. But that may have more to do with global bond market borrowing costs which - after rising sharply and knocking the confidence of equity markets - have seen their biggest weekly drop since early June. Its more than 3% drop marks its biggest weekly fall since February when concerns about rule of law changes were still raw. Investors use CDS either as a protection tool or to speculate and this week the cost of buying Israel CDS has surged 80%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Israel, Brent, Moody's, Fitch, Marc Jones, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, GAS, Reuters, CDS, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Iran, United States, Moscow, Ukraine, India

☆ Singapore policy review shift is sign of times
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The logo of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is pictured at its building in Singapore in this February 21, 2013 file photo. The city-state’s central bank unexpectedly announced on Friday that it would shift to quarterly meetings to assess monetary settings from 2024, switching from biannual reviews. Even though it took local economists by surprise, Singapore’s decision to introduce more frequent monetary policy reviews looked inevitable. Singapore’s unique monetary policy arrangements, and its trade-based economy, made it increasingly hard to use a too-rigid setup. The announcement came after the MAS kept its monetary policy settings unchanged, as expected, and pointed to both upside and downside risks to inflation.

Persons: Edgar Su, Chia Der, it’s, Chia, Lisa Jucca, Thomas Shum Organizations: Monetary Authority of Singapore, Rights, Reuters, Monetary Authority of, Swiss National Bank, People’s Bank of, Singapore, MAS, Ministry of Trade, Industry, Thomson Locations: Singapore, Rights SINGAPORE, Monetary Authority of Singapore, People’s Bank of China, China, United States, Ukraine, Israel

☆ China FX regulator says CBDC features could improve monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

China's official app for digital yuan is seen on a mobile phone next to 100-yuan banknotes in this illustration picture taken October 16, 2020. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsSHANGHAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - A Chinese foreign exchange regulator official said "programmable features" of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) could help enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy tools, state media reported on Friday. China is among a host of countries developing their own CBDCs - digital tokens issued by central banks - although adoption is still in its early stages. Lu said he expected the People's Bank of China (PBOC) could explore the features to adjust rates of CBDC, which could also be used manage the macro economy. Transactions using China's CBDC, the e-CNY, hit 1.8 trillion yuan ($249.33 billion) at end-June.

Persons: Florence Lo, Lu Lei, Lu, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Shanghai Securities News, People's Bank of China, Bank of International, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: China

A view of the Monetary Authority of Singapore's headquarters in Singapore June 28, 2017. In a move that surprised economists, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said it would shift to a quarterly schedule of policy statements in 2024 from semi-annual. The MAS maintained the prevailing rate of appreciation of its currency policy band known as the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate, or S$NEER. As part of the increased frequency of its policy statements, monetary policy will be reviewed in January, April, July and October instead of just April and October. Prior to April, the MAS tightened monetary policy five times in a row, including in two off-cycle moves last year.

Persons: Darren Whiteside, Chua Hak Bin, Chua, Selena Ling, Ling, Xinghui Kok, Kanupriya Kapoor, Martin Petty, Sam Holmes Organizations: Monetary Authority, REUTERS, Rights, Monetary Authority of Singapore, MAS, Singapore, Gross, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Singapore, Rights SINGAPORE

☆ Why an economic soft landing may prove elusive
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

His latest book, “You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism”, won’t make him any friends in monetary policymaking circles. The Fed responded by reducing interest rates to zero and employing various tools to lower bond yields. These economic imbalances prevented central banks from returning interest rates to normal levels. Unless, that is, liberalising economic reforms are enacted that boost productivity and allow interest rates to rise. Bernard Conolly’s book, “You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism” was published in hardback in September.

Persons: Bernard Connolly, Connolly, won’t, they’ve, Michael Woodford, ”, Alan Greenspan, staved, Lehman, Edward Chancellor’s “, Bernard Conolly’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, European Monetary Union, European Commission, Banks, U.S . Federal, stoke, Lehman Brothers, Fed, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Securities, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, British, Europe, American, “, ”, disequilibrium, intertemporal, Central

People walk past the headquarters of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, in Beijing, China September 28, 2018. Going by Wall Street's decline on Thursday, sparked by a spike in long-dated U.S. bond yields following a weak 30-year auction, the mood will be one of caution, at best. Annual producer price inflation has been negative for a year, although consumer inflation only briefly dipped below zero in July. On Thursday the yield curve flattened the most in a single day since March, a 'bull' flattening led by heavy buying of long-dated bonds. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- China PPI and CPI inflation (September)- China trade (September)- Singapore policy decision and GDP (Q3)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jason Lee, Jamie McGeever, Stocks, Josie Kao Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, PPI, CPI, September's PPI, Reuters, Treasury, China PPI, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, Singapore, South Korea, India

Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was higher by about 11 basis points at 4.707%, off its lows from earlier in the session. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 5.069% after rising by 6 basis points. Yields extended gains, pushing prices to their lows of the day, after a 30-year Treasury bond auction that saw weak demand. Policymakers were however divided on whether further interest rate hikes will be needed to achieve this.

Persons: Dow Jones, Thursday's Organizations: Treasury, Labor Department, Federal

☆ Split ECB chose rate hike to show grit against inflation - accounts
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Divided European Central Bank policymakers opted for raising interest rates at their latest meeting to show resolve in the fight against inflation even though evidence was inconclusive, the account of the gathering showed on Thursday. The ECB raised its key interest rate to a record high of 4.0% at the Sept 13-14 meeting but signalled that its 10th hike in a 14-month-long effort to bring down inflation was likely to be the last as the economy slowed. The ECB's account of the meeting showed the decision was a "close call" given "considerable uncertainty", with some indicators suggesting a 3.75% deposit rate might have also done the job. But in the end the proposal to raise interest rates by 25 basis point was supported by "a solid majority" of the 26 members of the Governing Council. Borrowing costs have eased slightly this week on the back of Federal Reserve officials talking down the need for further interest rate increases and nervousness about the Israel-Hamas conflict spreading more widely in the Middle East.

Persons: Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Governing, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Italy, Israel

☆ ECB's Stournaras interview with Reuters
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

Member of the ECB governing council and Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras talks during an interview with Reuters in Athens, Greece, October 11, 2023. The rise in bond yields means that financial conditions are even tighter Than before given monetary policy decisions. A: I think we should act only based on monetary policy reasons and justifications. And for the moment I see no reason why we should tighten monetary policy now because increasing the minimum requirements will imply monetary policy tightening. So, we have a pipeline of monetary policy tightening which has been decided in the past.

Persons: Yannis Stournaras, Louisa Gouliamaki, European Central Bank policymaker Yannis Stournaras, it's, I'm, reinvestments, Francesco Canepa Organizations: Bank of Greece, Reuters, REUTERS, Rights, European Central Bank policymaker, ECB, European Commission, Governing, Thomson Locations: Athens, Greece, Palestine, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, China, Europe, Israel, Italy

☆ Bankruptcies in Europe to level off late next year at earliest -Scope
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The number of companies in Europe that go insolvent will keep growing until at least late next year as higher interest rates and tougher financing conditions weigh on businesses, according to a Scope Ratings analysis seen by Reuters on Thursday. European companies will be on the hook for about 8.2 billion euros ($8.71 billion) in additional interest payments in refinancing maturing capital-market debt next year, it said. Those extra interest costs from durably higher borrowing rates are set to increase again in 2025 and 2026, it said. Assuming a similar scenario for bank debt, extra annual interest paid in 2024 will grow to more than 40 billion euros. ($1 = 0.9414 euros)Reporting by Rene Wagner, Writing by Miranda Murray, Editing by Friederike Heine, Robert BirselOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Rene Wagner, Miranda Murray, Friederike Heine, Robert Birsel Organizations: Reuters, European Union, Thomson Locations: Europe

Member of the ECB governing council and Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras talks during an interview with Reuters in Athens, Greece, October 11, 2023. In the interview, Greece's central bank governor also warned about the risk of stagflation from a prolonged war in the Middle East and spoke against increasing the amount of reserves that banks must hold. He countered calls by some of his colleagues for an early end to the ECB's last surviving bond-buying scheme, saying the central bank may need that firepower in a geopolitical environment fraught with risks. The ECB all but stopped buying bonds last year after a sudden surge in inflation forced it to unwind a decade of stimulus policies. "For the moment I see no reason why we should tighten monetary policy now because increasing the minimum requirements will imply monetary policy tightening," Stournaras said.

Persons: Yannis Stournaras, Louisa Gouliamaki, Rome, ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras, Stournaras, Francesco Canepa, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank of Greece, Reuters, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB policymaker, ECB, Investors, European Commission, Thomson Locations: Athens, Greece, ATHENS, Israel, Palestine, Italy, Rome

"This is something that we have been constantly looking at, and using information that becomes available to tighten sanctions," she said. SOFT LANDING 'NOT ... I'm not saying soft landing is an absolutely sure thing. But I continue to think it's the most likely path," due to the resilience in the labour market and moderating wage pressure, Yellen told a briefing. Yellen said Washington was monitoring the potential economic impact of the escalating conflict, though it was unlikely a major driver of the global outlook.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Biden, Washington, Ajay Banga, Banga, Antony Blinken, there’s, I'm, Andrea Shalal, Chizu Organizations: . Treasury, Hamas, Israel, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Ukraine, Israeli, World, Thomson Locations: MARRAKECH, Morocco, Israel, Palestinian, United States, Gaza, Iran, U.S, IRAN, Washington, Qatar, Ukraine

☆ Morning Bid: A window into the Fed's thinking
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

They scour every line and often every punctuation mark, for any sign of a shift in thinking. They might be disappointed later on Wednesday when the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting hit the wire. In a statement after the Sept. 20 meeting, Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's more hawkish monetary policy stance, saying that although "people hate inflation", the jury was out on whether the central bank's work in tackling price pressures was done. MARKETS IN 'UNCHARTED TERRITORY'Deutsche Bank says the market is in uncharted territory in terms of the shrinkage in central banks' balance sheets. In the roughly 15 years since the financial crisis, central banks have never sold assets as quickly as they have in the last half-year.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Amanda Cooper, Jerome Powell, Lorie Logan, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Treasury, Fed, Dallas, ING, Deutsche Bank, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, Japan

If the Fed's holdings of long-dated securities were shrinking like other parts of the curve, or even at all, more of these bonds would be available to the wider market. Wang recognizes that if the Fed held fewer longer-dated securities these yields might be even higher, but also points out that the Fed's holdings are largely determined by what Treasury issues. All told, the Fed's 'QT 2' is almost twice the pace of QT 1. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsSince the Fed started QT 2, its total holdings of Treasury bills and bonds have fallen to $4.93 trillion from $5.77 trillion. The average profile of Fed-held Treasury debt is longer than total outstanding Treasury debt, and getting longer.

Persons: Sukree, Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Joseph Wang, Wang, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Neel Kashkari, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Rights, Fed, Treasury, Reuters, Monetary, Minneapolis, Thomson Locations: Kasikornbank, Bangkok, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Durham

☆ Hedge funds expected to ramp up returns on higher rates - BNP survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Investors expect hedge funds to produce higher returns with the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer, a BNP Paribas [RIC:RIC:BNPPL.UL] investor survey showed on Wednesday. Investors now expect hedge funds to return an average of 9.75% annually within an average of 19 months, up from 6.85%, according to the survey. However, hedge funds themselves think this will take longer, up to 29 months, the survey showed. BNP Paribas said historical evidence shows hedge funds tend to perform well in higher and stable interest rate environments and less so when rates are lower. BNP Capital Introduction Group surveyed 82 hedge fund managers in what it called the "summer" of 2023.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Michael Oliver Weinberg, “, ”, Weinberg, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, BNP, RIC, Investors, Group, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

BANGKOK (AP) — Shares advanced Wednesday in Asia, tracking Wall Street gains following an easing of pressure from the bond market. Some of the strongest action was in the bond market, where Treasury yields eased after trading resumed following a holiday on Monday. The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more closely with expectations for the Fed’s actions, sank to 4.97% from 5.09%. Treasury yields had jumped last week to their highest levels in more than a decade, following the lead of the Fed’s main interest rate, which is at heights unseen since 2001. Traders are now betting on a nearly 73% chance that the year will end without any more Fed rate hikes, according to data from CME Group.

Persons: Australia's, They’ve Organizations: —, Bloomberg, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix's, Investors, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, PepsiCo, Treasury, Traders, CME Group, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent, U.S Locations: BANGKOK, Asia, Hong Kong, Shanghai, South Korea, India, Bangkok, Israel

☆ Janet Yellen sees limited economic impact from war in Israel
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

London CNN —The war between Israel and Hamas is unlikely to have a significant impact on the global economy, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday. Global oil prices had surged earlier in the week on fears that the war could cause wider instability in the oil-producing Middle East. But Yellen said Wednesday that the United States had not “in any way” relaxed sanctions on oil exports from Iran. But it cautioned in its latest World Economic Outlook report — finalized before the conflict erupted — that economic growth remained weak and patchy. The IMF shaved its forecast for global growth in 2024 by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%.

Persons: Janet Yellen, I’m, ”, Yellen, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, —, — Robert North Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, Bank, Stock, Global, Chevron, IMF Locations: Israel, Morocco, Iran, China, Washington, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Egypt, Jordan, Europe

Private credit players like HPS Investment Partners and Blue Owl Capital (OWL.N) have a workaround, but it could prompt a painful hangover. Cashed-up private credit funds offered sums previously unseen outside of traditional bank financing on riskier deals. Private credit assets swelled 460% to over $1.4 trillion between 2010 and the end of 2022, Preqin says. Reuters GraphicsThe attraction of “mezz” and similar exotic lending isn’t just that it helps private credit source new deals. In 2021, that dynamic meant private loans briefly became cheaper than liquid, tradable loans – flying in the face of financial orthodoxy.

Persons: –, Zendesk, Preqin, LSEG, HPS, Goldman, Blackstone, Angelo Gordon, dealmaking, George Hay, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, HPS Investment Partners, Owl, Blackstone, Apollo, Treasury, Private, Management, Partners, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Sabre, Companies, Wolf, ADC Therapeutics, Equity, Thomson Locations: EBITDA

☆ The IMF raises its economic outlook for both Russia and Ukraine, even as the war between them rages on
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The International Monetary Fund upgraded its economic forecasts for Russia and Ukraine Tuesday. It expects both to post similar annual GDP growth to the US in 2023. The IMF also warned that inflation is going nowhere in 2024 – and called for central banks to keep interest rates high. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Russian and Ukrainian economies are holding up much better than was previously thought even as the war between Moscow and Kyiv rages on, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. The IMF upgraded its outlook for Russia's GDP growth from 1.5% to 2.2%, citing "substantial fiscal stimulus, strong investment, and resilient consumption in the context of a tight labor market".

Persons: —, Vladimir Putin's, ramping Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, Service, International Monetary Fund, Kremlin Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow

REUTERS/Jason Reed/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But the tone of trading across Asian markets on Thursday may be a little more cautious than some of the headline moves on Wednesday indicate, and may also hinge on the U.S. yield curve. But ugly U.S. producer inflation data at the U.S. open on Wednesday - monthly, annual, headline and core readings were all higher than expected - was a reality check for those betting the Fed is all but done raising rates. But this flipped back again after the latest Fed minutes were released, paving the way for a late flourish on Wall Street and positive close for the three main indexes. The 'pivot' message from Fed officials this week has been pretty strong and consistent, and Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday was the latest to beat that drum.

Persons: Jason Reed, Jamie McGeever, Christopher Waller, India's, Josie Kao Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, CPI, U.S, PPI, India's CPI, Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Washington, Malaysia, Asia, Japan, U.S, Europe, India, Marrakech, Morocco

[1/4] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. The IMF adjusted this year's stress test to probe the impact of its baseline economic scenario of higher interest rates for longer, as well as the possibility of consumers yanking deposits. "Under the baseline, it's about 5% of banks that are relatively weak in terms of their capital. And in severe stress, that number goes up to 30% or sometimes higher," Adrian said. The IMF did not identify the banks that could be in trouble if those economic circumstances arose, but they included both small and large lenders.

Persons: Yuri Gripas, Tobias Adrian, Adrian, There's, Pete Schroeder, Michelle Price, Paul Simao Organizations: Monetary Fund, REUTERS, Rights, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Valley Bank, Switzerland's Credit Suisse Group, Monetary, Capital Markets Department, Palestinian, World Bank, U.S, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, California, Israel, Gaza, Marrakech, Morocco, Italy, Federal, U.S

☆ Dollar stalls as dovish Fed tone dials down rate expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSINGAPORE, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The dollar remained steady against major peers on Tuesday, after a pause in its rally following a slight dovish shift in Federal Reserve officials' tone. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the Fed funds rate," said Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan -- a notable shift from previously hawkish rhetoric. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank would need to "proceed carefully" given the recent rise in yields. "There are another 13 Fed speakers scheduled this week which could see this theme develop further," said analysts at Westpac. "The idea that the increases in bond yields have done part of the tightening job appears to be gaining traction among some Fed officials," said OCBC rates strategist Frances Cheung.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Frances Cheung, Ken Cheung, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal, New, East, Swiss, Palestinian, Dallas, Fed, Westpac, Columbus, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, New Zealand, Israeli, Israel, Tokyo, People's Bank of China

A strong dollar typically weighs on oil prices as it makes the commodity more expensive for holders of other currencies, dampening demand for crude. Oil prices in September hit 10-month highs as Saudi Arabia and Russia cut a combined 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply until the end of the year. Oil prices are currently high in part in response to the OPEC+ cuts. This supply shock is expected to dampen consumer purchasing power, weigh on economic growth and eventually depress oil demand, JP Morgan analysts said. And given high interest rates in key Western economies, the combination of relatively high oil prices and the strong dollar cannot last for a long time, said Saxobank analyst Ole Hansen.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Brent, Colin Asher, Francesco Pesole, Morgan, Ole Hansen, Tamas Varga, PVM, Simon Webb, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Mizuho, U.S . Federal Reserve, ING, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Russia, Israel, Palestinian

☆ IMF says global economy 'limping along', cuts growth forecast for China, euro zone
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

China Daily via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsSummary Global growth forecast unchanged at 3.0% in 2023Inflation dropping but 'not quite there yet'-IMF chief economistIMF raises U.S. forecast, cuts outlook for China, euro areaMARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its growth forecasts for China and the euro zone and said overall global growth remained low and uneven despite what it called the "remarkable strength" of the U.S. economy. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF left its forecast for global real GDP growth in 2023 unchanged at 3.0% but cut its 2024 forecast to 2.9% from its July forecast of 3.0%. Even in 2028, the IMF is projecting global growth of just 3.1%. You put all these things together and you have a slowdown in medium-term growth," Gourinchas told Reuters. If the real estate crisis deepened, China's growth could be lowered by as much as 1.6% percentage point, which in turn would knock 0.6 percentage points off global growth, Gourinchas said.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, It's, it's, Andrea Shalal, Andrea Ricci, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, IMF, Monetary Fund, World Bank, Reuters, Research, Labor, U.S, autoworkers, Thomson Locations: Jinhua, Zhejiang province, China, MARRAKECH, Morocco, U.S, COVID, Ukraine, Israel, Marrakech, United States, Japan

The IMF said it expects global economic growth to slow to 2.9% in 2024 from an expected 3% this year. “The global economy is limping along, not sprinting," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at a news conference during the organization's annual meeting in Marrakech, Morocco. If sustained, a 10% increase in oil prices would reduce global economic growth by 0.15% and increase global inflation by 0.4%, Gourinchas said. So far, the increase in oil prices has been “fairly muted,” said Commerzbank commodities analyst Carsten Fritsch. The United States is a standout in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, which was completed before the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, “, Gourinchas, “ We’ve, ”, Carsten Fritsch Organizations: Hamas, International Monetary Fund, IMF, United Arab, U.S . Federal Reserve, Saudi Locations: Ukraine, Israel, Marrakech, Morocco, Palestinian, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, United States, U.S, Europe, Russia, Beijing

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