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New York CNN —New data shows weakening in the US economy – Friday’s jobs report showed that unemployment ticked up to 4.1% in June. Inflation is easing, and so is economic growth – that combination means interest rate cuts could be on their way. Before the Bell spoke with Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, about investors, the economy and political landscape. We recognize that to have a thesis on the economy is to have a thesis on the consumer. The global market value for adult diapers was pegged at $12.8 billion in 2023, according to market research provider Euromonitor International.
Persons: Joe Biden, Bell, Michael Reynolds, we’ve, there’s, That’s, We’ve, Fumio Kishida, Read, Nathaniel Meyersohn Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal, DC, Traders, Fed, Federal Reserve, United Nations, UN, Euromonitor, Oji Holdings, Flags Locations: New York, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, United States
Though CIO Michael Landsberg of Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management says the conditions don't justify a cut, he says there might be one. "I think if Chairman Powell had not said, we're gonna get a rate cut, we wouldn't be having these discussions because earnings growth has been really strong. Against that backdrop, Landsberg says, investors should focus on companies generating strong earnings growth. "The major indices are continuing to rally based on strong earnings growth. Earnings growth is the name of the game for this stock market right now," he said in additional notes to CNBC.
Persons: Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett, Powell, we're, CNBC's, he's, Landsberg, They've, Stryker Organizations: U.S . Federal, Wealth Management, Fed, West Texas, CNBC, Trade Locations: Landsberg, China, U.S
Financial markets are slowly starting to absorb the possibility that what was once a toss-up presidential election campaign has taken a notable turn. That has put investors in a quandary of how to handicap what a Trump presidency would look like from an economic and market standpoint. .SPX mountain 2024-06-28 S & P 500 performance since the debate However, the bond market has had a bit more of a reaction. The first Trump presidency and some of his campaign rhetoric nevertheless has led to guesswork about what could be ahead. "This particularly favors financials and there will be an expectation of more M & A approval in a Trump presidency.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, specter, Biden, Trump, Mark Malek, Siebert AdvisorNXT, Handicapping, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Ed Mills, Raymond James, Kamala Harris, Harris, Chris Krueger, TD Cowen, Krueger, ABC's George Stephanopoulos, , Sarah Min Organizations: Republican, Trump, Treasury, Bank of, White, Reading, New York Times, Biden, Democrat Locations: Washington
Washington CNN —A vast swath of the US economy is showing signs of weakness as unemployment rises to its highest point in more than two years. “When you think of services, a lot of it is driven by the consumer, and consumers are key to where the US economy goes,” James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, told CNN. Consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of the US economy, has already moderated over the past few months, government statistics show, and retailers themselves have said they’ve noticed shoppers across the income spectrum change their purchasing behavior. The bottom 60% of households by income accounted for a larger proportion of spending on health care services. These firms have added 168,000 jobs a month, on average, from April through June, according to fresh Labor Department data released Friday.
Persons: , ” James Knightley, “ We’re, Knightley, Scott Hamilton, Gallagher, It’s, Tesla, China’s Geely, Laura He, Elon, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Institute, Supply, ING, CNN, Commerce, Service, Labor Department, EV, Volvo, SAIC, Elon Musk’s, Business, Committee, Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Financial Services, Chicago Fed, Pepsico, Delta Air Lines, ConAgra Brands, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, The, New York Mellon, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, United States, California, Jiangsu, China, Shanghai, Wells Fargo
If the data shows that inflation slowed last month, mortgage rates could ease a bit. So it's likely that we'll see mortgage rates decrease throughout the remainder of 2024. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, average 15-year mortgage rates were 6.25%, a nine-basis-point increase from the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. Once the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Persons: we'll, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Zillow Locations: Chevron
Stock futures edged lower Sunday night as investors await key inflation data for further clues on the longevity of this year's market rally. S&P futures were down more than 0.1%, while futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 51 points, or 0.1%. Producer price index data will be released Friday. Last week, labor data reflected a slightly cooling labor market, spurring expectations of a rate cut. A slew of major banks, including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase , will kick off second-quarter earnings season this week.
Persons: Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, JPMorgan Chase, Stocks, Dow Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, Traders, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Citigroup, JPMorgan, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Nvidia Locations: U.S
We don't say they have a secular wind at their backs. We don't say: Apple's business is much better than we thought. They keep coming back to one main point: You can't have these companies dominate without something bad happening to the stock market. Let me present a different, factual manifesto: The companies with these amazing gains are companies that just don't stop inventing. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Joe Biden, Biden, Lilly, , Tesla, Elon Musk, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, pharma, Novo Nordisk, National Football League, YouTube, Web Services, Costco, Walmart, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Facebook, Google Locations: Lilly
Three of the four big money center banks report this coming Friday, including Club name Wells Fargo . Economic data : The June consumer price index (CPI) is out on Thursday morning, and the June producer price index (PPI) is out on Friday morning. Earnings season : Within the portfolio, net interest income (NII) guidance is going to be a key watch item when Wells Fargo reports its quarter this coming Friday. However, other factors like muted loan demand have prevented Wells Fargo from raising its outlook this year. Wells Fargo – and our other bank name Morgan Stanely – both passed, indicating they have strong capital positions with excess money to return to shareholders.
Persons: May's, You'll, Wells, Michael Santomassimo, Morgan Stanley, We're, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanely –, JPMorgan Chase, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Beata Zawrzel Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Apple, Broadcom, Club, Meta, Energy, Constellation Brands, Corona, Modelo, Federal Reserve, Manufacturing, PMI, Fed, Wells, PPI, CPI, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, DAL, Conagra Brands, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, U.S, New York Stock Exchange, Nurphoto, Getty Locations: Wells Fargo, FactSet, Wells, Wells Fargo –, New York, United States, America
Mortgage rates have started July a bit higher than they were last month, with 30-year mortgage rates averaging around 6.71% this week, according to Zillow data. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.95% this week, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 6.25% this week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a nine-basis-point increase from the previous week. Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit.
Persons: Danielle Hale, Hale, Freddie Mac Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Labor, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Fed Locations: U.S, Chevron
Some key inflation readings in the week ahead could bolster the case for a September interest rate cut, as investors deliberate how long stocks can sustain their rally to record highs. After a rocky start to the year, a recently improving inflation picture has investors hopeful the Federal Reserve could soon start to lower rates. Stubborn inflation patches The June consumer price index is expected to show a slight improvement in the headline number. In May, for example, shelter inflation rose 0.4% on the month and 5.4% on the year, while other key items declined. Monday, July 8 3 p.m. Consumer Credit (May) Tuesday, July 9 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (June) Wednesday, July 10 10 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (May) Thursday, July 11 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (June) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: nonfarm payrolls, Mark Malek, FactSet, there's, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Mayfield, David Kelly, CNBC's, Wells, Price, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CPI, PPI, FactSet, University of Michigan, Asset Management, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Consumer Credit, Treasury Budget, Air Lines, Conagra, JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan, Fastenal
It's time for the Fed to cut rates at the end of July. Add to that the moderation in the consumer price index , the producer price index and the personal consumption expenditures price index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – and the need to wait for further signs of improvement seems like overkill. Also, if the Fed dials back policy later – rather than sooner – there will be claims of political interference if it cut rates immediately before the presidential election. The central bank has been dealing with an economy-crashing pandemic, a surge in prices and uncertainty over how its policies would affect the broad economy, inflation and consumer behavior over time. This is a factor that will likely drive inflation rates lower.
Persons: Adrian –, , Mickey, Dow Jones, Joe Biden, Adrian . Go, Ron Insana Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow, New York Federal, Atlanta, CNBC
Average 30-year mortgage rates ticked up nine basis points to 6.95% this week, according to Freddie Mac. Forecasters have long been predicting that mortgage rates will soon decrease, but stubbornly high inflation in the first half of the year pushed back those expectations. Mortgage Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Persons: Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron
The prospect of "higher for longer" rates has also made short-term fixed income assets especially attractive. "We had a lot of investors who were in, if not cash, then sub-2-year duration fixed income at the start of the year." Takeaways for investors It doesn't hurt for retail investors to review their fixed income allocation now that the year is halfway over. A combination of fixed income assets may be what it takes to benefit from today's higher rates, lock in yields and capture rising prices once the Fed cuts. "We don't buy that there's one fixed income asset class that you should tilt toward," said Calcagni.
Persons: , Don Calcagni, it's, Shannon Saccocia, Neuberger Berman, Michael Rosen, Rosen, Janus Henderson, Vishal Khanduja, Eaton Vance, Khanduja, Callie Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, FedWatch, Investment Company Institute, Money, Mercer Advisors, Investors, Municipal, Angeles Investment Advisors, AAA CLOs, Janus Henderson AAA CLO, SEC, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Bond, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Stay Locations: Santa Monica, Calif
Developers have built a lot of new small apartments over the last few years, and the boost in supply has driven rents down. Rents for newly finished one-bedroom apartments are also falling — the median rent fell 11.9% year over year in the first quarter of 2024, the report found. More than 90,000 new apartments came online in the fourth quarter of 2023, finishing a big year of apartment construction, Redfin noted. The Redfin report is based on US Census data on "unfurnished, unsubsidized, privately financed rental apartments in buildings with five or more units." Studios and one-bedrooms tend to be more profitable for developers to build than larger apartments, and developers aren't building enough apartments suitable for big families.
Persons: Redfin, you've, Sheharyar Bokhari, Organizations: Service, Business, Harvard Locations: Redfin
Mortgage rates increased overall this week, with 30-year mortgage rates ticking up closer to 7%, according to Freddie Mac. This means mortgage rates should go down in the coming months and years. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowToday's refinance ratesMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: Freddie Mac, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's, you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal Reserve, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Chevron
This should remove some upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to trend down a bit. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. Mortgage Rates for Buying a Home30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Tick Up (+0.20%)The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.73%, up 20 basis points from where it was this time last week, according to Zillow data. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Rise (+0.17%)The average 15-year mortgage rate is 6.12%, 17 basis points higher than last week. Mortgage Refinance Rates30-Year Fixed Refinance Rates Increase Slightly (+0.11%)The average 30-year refinance rate is 7.81%, 11 basis points up from last week.
Persons: you'll, It's, refinance Organizations: Investors, Federal Reserve, Zillow, FHA Locations: Chevron
Yet one buffer for the effects of inflation — the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, — may be lower next year. As the rate of inflation moderates, the Social Security COLA for 2025 might be 3%, according to the latest estimate from Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. That estimate is lower than the 3.2% boost to benefits that more than 66 million beneficiaries saw starting in January. It is also substantially lower than the record 8.7% COLA beneficiaries saw in 2023 and the 5.9% COLA that went into effect in 2022 in response to record-high inflation. Because it is still very early in the year, the Social Security COLA estimate may be subject to change.
Persons: Eva, katalin, Mary Johnson Organizations: Getty, Social Security, Urban, Clerical Workers, Social Security Administration
"He caused the inflation," Trump said of Biden during the June 27 debate. "He decimated the economy, absolutely decimated the economy," Biden said. 'Neither Trump nor Biden is to blame'Global events beyond Trump's or Biden's control wreaked havoc on supply-and-demand dynamics in the U.S. economy, fueling higher prices, economists said. "In my view, neither Trump nor Biden is to blame for the high inflation," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. For example, Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and several goods from China, which Biden largely kept intact.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Andrew Harnik, Trump, Biden, David Wessel, Mark Zandi, Mario Tama, Wessel, Zandi, Stephen Brown, , Michael Strain, Strain Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Biden, Trump, Hutchins, Brookings Institution, Finance, Social Security, Medicare, Moody's, Port, International Monetary Fund, North, Capital Economics, American, American Enterprise Institute, Federal, U.S Locations: Atlanta, U.S, Ukraine, China, Port of Los Angeles, San Pedro , California, North America, It's
America has a serious ugly home problem
  + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +14 min
Recently she posted a video on her YouTube channel in which she phrased the question more bluntly: "Why are homes so 'ugly' now?" Most people agree that America needs more houses, but nobody seems all that thrilled with the ones being built. Related storiesThe blame for America's architectural nightmare, however, doesn't stop at production builders, rising costs, or local codes. Homes look this way because they're not just places where we live — they're also supposed to help us get rich. As they stare down these rising costs, builders and architects have almost no choice but to streamline or opt for cheaper design elements.
Persons: Bailey McInnes, McInnes, they're, James Wentling, John Burns, Peter Dennehy, They're, Dan Reynolds, Horton, Lennar, Kate Wagner, she's, , Wagner, Marcia Straub, William Morgan, it's, Queen Anne Organizations: HGTV, YouTube, Facebook, Builders, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Association of Home Builders, John Burns Research, Consulting, Harvard's, for Housing Studies, Harvard, The Locations: Northern Virginia, America, homebuilding, Providence , Rhode Island
watch nowHeadline inflation in the euro area dipped to 2.5% in June, the European Union's statistics agency said Tuesday, while the closely watched core and services prints held steady. Core inflation, excluding the volatile effects of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, stayed at 2.9% from the prior month, narrowly missing the 2.8% economists had forecast. Investors will now parse what the latest data means for the trajectory of interest rates in the 20-nation euro zone, following the European Central Bank's initial 25 basis point cut in June. Volatility in the consumer price index has long been expected this year, as choppy base effects from the energy market unwind. In June, year-on-year energy inflation in the euro zone was 0.2%, a sharp switch from earlier in the year when the sector had a strong disinflationary pull.
Persons: Luis de Guindos, CNBC's Annette Weisbach Organizations: Reuters, Inflation, Investors, Central, Tuesday, ECB, Central Banking Locations: Sintra , Portugal
Related storiesIn Florida, there are five metro areas where more than 60% of renters are cost-burdened. Two Pennsylvania metro areas were in the top 10 for the highest percentage of cost-burdened renters: State College and East Stroudsburg, at 63% and 61%, respectively. According to the Harvard report, 45% of renters in Stillwater, Oklahoma, are severely cost-burdened, the highest percentage in the nation. AdvertisementCorvallis, Oregon; Port St. Lucie, Florida; and State College, Pennsylvania, are the three metro areas that are in the top 10 for both cost-burdened and severely cost-burdened renters. Home prices and mortgage interest rates have surged in recent years, putting homeownership out of reach for even more renters.
Persons: , Alexander Hermann, erelman@businessinsider.com Organizations: Service, Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Business, Harvard, Harvard's, for Housing, State College, East, State College , Locations: Naples , Florida, Corvallis , Oregon, Florida, Naples, Marco, Port St, Lucie , Florida, Pennsylvania, East Stroudsburg, Stillwater , Oklahoma, State College , Pennsylvania
New York CNN —Inflation rates in Canada, the EU and Australia have popped higher in recent months. But that disconnect appears to be fading as inflation rates in the US continue to ease. The US also had a recent scare as inflation rates ticked higher. But after a year of the Fed holding interest rates steady at a 23-year high, inflation rates in the United States are once again declining. High inflation readings around the globe are concerning investors, José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, told CNN.
Persons: , Brent Schutte, Schutte, José Torres, Torres, payrolls, Chewy, Keith Gill, Krystal Hur, Gill, Ryan Cohen, Jordan Valinsky, CSSE Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, EU, Federal, Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Interactive Brokers, CNN, Investors, Bank for International, BIS, Securities, Exchange, GameStop, Soul Entertainment, BBC, Sony Pictures, Walmart, Walgreens, Apollo Global Management, Sony, Netflix Locations: New York, Canada, Australia, United States, Europe, Redbox
Americans think they need a whole lot more money than they're making to feel comfortable, according to a new survey. The latest survey from Bankrate, which polled 2,407 US adults from May 16 to 20, looks at how much Americans think they need to make to feel financially secure. According to the survey, Gen Z respondents said a $200,000 annual salary would ensure their financial security. Millennials said they'd need $199,000, and for Gen Xers and baby boomers, their financial security targets were at $183,000 and $171,000, respectively. To be sure, it's not all bad for Gen Z. TransUnion's latest Consumer Pulse Study found that Gen Z is "the most stable of any generation" in this year's second quarter, with 45% of them reporting wage increases over the past three months.
Persons: Gen, Millennials, Gen Xers, Gen Zers, Sarah Foster, Z, Zers, Michele Raneri, it's, They're, Charlie Wise, that's, Zer Organizations: Service, Business, Survey, Consumer Finances, Washington Post, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BI, Millennials, TransUnion Locations: Bankrate
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. seeks Boeing guilty plea
  + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs before pulling back. Boeing 'guilty plea'U.S. prosecutors plan to seek a guilty plea from Boeing over a charge related to two fatal 737 Max crashes in 2018 and 2019, attorneys for the victims' family members said. [PRO] Rally will broadenThe tech sector has driven market performance in 2024, with the S&P 500 tech group up 28% and Nvidia soaring 149%, while small-caps have lagged.
Persons: Max, John Donahoe, Morgan Stanley, Stifel, Gregory Greene, Mary Daly, CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, John Stoltzfus, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CNBC, Hezbollah, Boeing, U.S, The Justice, DOJ, Nike, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Nvidia Locations: Israel, Iran, Gox, Japanese
The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than two basis points higher to 4.7453%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors awaited key economic data due this week and digested the latest inflation insights. Investors considered the latest economic data and looked ahead to insights from the labor market expected this week. Further insights about the state of the economy are expected this week, when a series of labor market data is due. Should the numbers indicate an easing of the labor market, hopes for interest rate cuts could be boosted.
Persons: Dow Jones, ADP's Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, Federal Reserve
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