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Janney analyst Timothy Coffey said in a note to clients Monday that Western Alliance is now "dirt cheap" and reiterated his buy rating on the stock. "Bank stocks of all stripes have been volatile since Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were closed in mid-March. However, recent volatility in WAL (and, for that matter, PACW, BUY-rated) do not indicate company-specific weakness," the Janney note said. Janney has a fair value estimate of $63 per share for Western Alliance, which is more than 100% above where the stock closed on Friday. The stock was trading above $70 per share in March before Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, triggering the sell-off for regional banks.
Bank stocks could be due for a rally, if history repeats itself. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , which is focused on regional banks, climbed 6.3% on Friday. Meanwhile, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) , a fund that tracks financial stocks more broadly, advanced 2.5%. The KRE was down more than 1% on Monday as regional bank stocks were once again under pressure. Notably, closely watched PacWest was able to avoid the regional bank downturn, adding 10% on Monday after surging almost 82% Friday.
Regional bank shares stretched gains from a rebound on Friday, with PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) jumping 33% premarket after the company announced quarterly dividend. Shares of such banks tumbled for much of last week on worries tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. ET, Dow e-minis were up 67 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 6 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 4.25 points, or 0.03%. Data on producer prices, weekly jobless claims and on consumer sentiment are all lined up through the week. On earnings, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc's Class B shares rose 1.5% after the company posting a $35.5 billion first-quarter profit, reflecting gains from stocks such as Apple.
CNBC Daily Open: Investors like jobs growth
  + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Broader markets were boosted by April's jobs report, which showed a higher-than-expected increase in jobs growth and an unemployment rate of 3.4% — a record low since 1969. Recall January's jobs report: There were 517,000 new jobs in December, almost three times the forecast. A strong jobs market increases the probability that the U.S. economy can tame inflation without contracting too severely. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
But Gary Richardson, a Federal Reserve historian, is worried policymakers — now contemplating taking a breather — still risk repeating mistakes from that era. A premature retreat could cause the Fed to lose its handle on the situation, presenting even grimmer options down the road. Quick rewind: The chair of the Federal Reserve at the time, Arthur Burns, hiked interest rates dramatically between 1972 and 1974. Inflation later roared back, forcing the hand of Paul Volcker, who took over at the Fed in 1979, Richardson said. But the comparisons reveal the high stakes for the Federal Reserve at a moment of acute uncertainty.
First Republic Seized and Sold: Why It Happened and What Comes Next The FDIC seized First Republic Bank early Monday and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston Jessee
Banks Are in the Grips of Investor Crisis of Confidence
  + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Telis Demos | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what the bank’s crisis means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeFirst Republic Bank ’s seizure and sale to JPMorgan Chase was supposed to be a cathartic moment for American banks, the denouement of the financial system’s latest crisis of confidence. The relief lasted for barely a day. On Tuesday, shares of regional banks were plunging, with a handful of them dropping by double-digit percentages. At one point on Thursday, the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index was down by 15% from the prior week, though it rallied back on Friday to finish the week down 8%.
Wall Street’s still worried despite Friday’s fakeout
  + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
In other words, Wall Street still has concerns about the banking sector’s health, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and the possibility of recession. Key inflation reports aheadThe April Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index are on deck for next week. The Fed on Wednesday raised interest rates by a quarter point and opened the door to a pause later this year. Wednesday: April Consumer Price Index and earnings report from Disney (DIS). Thursday: April Producer Price Index, mortgage rates and jobless claims.
The Week in Business: The 10th Straight Rate Increase
  + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Marie Solis | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +4 min
It was the third consecutive increase of that size and the 10th straight rate increase since last March. This encroaching deadline presents a tricky political problem for Mr. Biden. Republicans are trying to extract concessions from Mr. Biden that would significantly undermine his agenda. He could negotiate spending cuts but divorce those discussions from the debt limit. There is one other possible option: a constitutional challenge to the debt limit, a long-shot plan that would rely on a clause in the 14th Amendment.
[1/9] Investors and guests arrive for the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders' meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, U.S. May 6, 2023. Speaking at Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting, Buffett criticized how politicians, regulators and the press have handled the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank, saying their "very poor" messaging has unnecessarily frightened depositors. At the meeting, Berkshire shareholders reelected all directors and rejected shareholder proposals concerning climate change, diversity and political activities. LIGHTED MATCHBuffett said regulators were right to guarantee depositors of Silicon Valley Bank, saying that not doing so "would have been catastrophic." He also said bank shareholders and executives should bear the risks of mismanagement, with Munger criticizing executives concerned more with getting rich than with customers.
REUTERS/Rachel MummeyNEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) - Warren Buffett on Saturday said Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) is cautious around the banking sector, largely because of poor messaging by officials around government-insured deposits, as well as distorted incentives he said were brought on by banking regulation. "The U.S. government and the American public have no interest in having a bank fail and having deposits actually lost by people," he said. Part of the reason for that is that incentives in banking regulation are "so messed up," he said. First Republic Bank, the latest regional U.S. bank to fail, disclosed that it was offering non-guaranteed jumbo-sized mortgages at fixed rates in its annual report. "The incentives in bank regulation are so messed up and so many people have an interest in having them messed up -- it's totally crazy," Buffett said.
Speaking at the annual meeting of his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N), criticized how politicians, regulators and the press have handled the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank, saying their "very poor" messaging has unnecessarily frightened depositors. The meeting featured Buffett, 92, who is Berkshire's chairman and chief executive, and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger answering five hours of shareholder questions. LIGHTED MATCHBuffett said regulators were right to guarantee depositors of Silicon Valley Bank, saying that not doing so "would have been catastrophic." Buffett defended the size of Berkshire's $151 billion Apple investment, saying consumers are less likely to shed their $1,500 iPhones than, for example, their $35,000 second cars. Many recognized it could be one of their last chances to see Buffett and Munger, given their ages.
The Regional Bank Selloff Visualized
  + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Alana Pipe | Dan Delorenzo | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Some investors are still worried about the health of regional banks as another week of turbulence sent shares of many of the companies tumbling before a rally Friday. In a week that included another interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve and a rescue of First Republic by JPMorgan Chase , the KBW Regional Banking Index, which tracks regional banks in the U.S., was down 28% this year, through Friday.
But as data continues to come out in the months ahead, Edwards says to pay attention to details beneath the headline numbers. Sure enough, revisions to February and March numbers reported on Friday paint a picture of a weakening labor market. "I think the recession will lead to a collapse in margins and profits and do a lot of damage." In terms of his view on the labor market, Edwards has company in Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. But bulls do remain, and they're betting on a scenario where inflation continues to come down — it hit 5% in March, down from its 9.1% peak last year — and the labor market remains intact.
A pile of Bitcoin slugs sit in a box ready to be minted on April 26, 2013 in Sandy, Utah. And bitcoin is front-running this scenario, pointing to a future that is effectively a return to relatively low rates. A big reason why bitcoin has performed so well was that it was just really oversold during the collapse of FTX. In such a scenario, all assets would have a correlation of one with each other, including bitcoin and even gold. Big gold buyers like HSBC and JPMorgan have shunned business with Moscow — leaving billions of dollars worth of gold in need of new landing spots.
Bitcoin could hit a new record high next year, said Bob Ras, cofounder of blockchain firm Sologenic. He cited bitcoin halving, which will reduce mining rewards and supply of the token. The banking crisis and expectations that the Fed will start easing may also lift bitcoin, he added. "When bitcoin's halving kicks in a year from now, we'll likely be well on our way past the previous all-time high," Ras told Insider. Meanwhile, bitcoin appears to be front-running the belief that looser policy from the Federal Reserve is on the way, Ras explained.
Buffett, when asked about the recent tumult that led to the collapse of three mid-sized institutions since March, launched into a lengthy diatribe about the matter. In the early 1990s, Buffett served as CEO of Salomon Brothers, helping rehabilitate the Wall Street firm's tattered reputation. The core problem, as Buffett sees it, is that the public doesn't understand that their bank deposits are safe, even those that are uninsured. Meanwhile, Buffett said that he keeps his personal funds at a local institution, and isn't worried despite exceeding the threshold for FDIC coverage. "The messaging has been very poor, it's been poor by the politicians who sometimes have an interest in having it poor," he said.
Bill Ackman, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mohamed El-Erian and others are warning the banking turmoil is far from over. That's prompting top economists and investors to once again warn that the banking turmoil is far from over. Below is a selection of the most recent warnings on US banking risks from high-profile investors, analysts and other experts. Bill Ackman, billionaire investor"The FDIC's failure to update and expand its insurance regime has hammered more nails in the coffin," Ackman said Wednesday on Twitter. He was raising doubts about Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's suggestion during a Wednesday press conference that the worst of the banking turmoil is over.
The FDIC seized First Republic Bank early Monday and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeShares of under-fire regional banks surged to recover some of their lost ground on Friday, though many were still on track to end the week nursing hefty losses. Bankers and government officials hoped the sale of First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase on Monday would draw a line under upheaval from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March. But investors continued to hunt for weak links for much of the week, dumping shares of midsize and smaller banks.
Ed Beardsworth got a tall box in the mail about two years ago. Inside was a sturdy umbrella with a First Republic Bank logo on it. The gift, showered upon him for opening his accounts, put a pep in his step. Carrying it around “makes me feel like a proper Englishman,” said Mr. Beardsworth, who lives in Palo Alto, Calif.
The FDIC seized First Republic Bank early Monday and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeShares of under-fire regional banks surged to recover some of their lost ground on Friday, though many still ended the week nursing hefty losses. Bankers and government officials hoped the sale of First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase on Monday would draw a line under upheaval from the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March. But investors continued to hunt for weak links for much of the week, dumping shares of midsize and smaller banks.
Biden’s Big Bank Contradiction
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Today the roles have reversed, with Democrats refusing to negotiate, preferring to smear the 'MAGA Republican' opposition as 'extreme.' Images: Zuma Press/AFP via Getty Images Composite: Mark KellyRegional banks took another market drubbing on Thursday, as the financial panic rolls on despite regulatory assurances that all is well. The turmoil wasn’t helped Thursday when midsize TD Bank and First Horizon Bank called off their merger, blaming regulatory impediments. The merger cancellation followed the Biden Administration’s decision on Monday to give JPMorgan a sweetheart deal to acquire failed First Republic Bank . It’s good to be a really, really big bank these days.
The stock market could become "untouchable" if the regional banking crisis continues to spiral out of control. "This raises too many tail risk issues including credit tightening, commercial real estate, and wide economic implications," Lee said. Lee's cause for concern about the banking crisis and the chilling effect it could have on the stock market is based on the type of risks that could percolate if the instability continues. "This raises too many tail risk issues including credit tightening, commercial real estate and wide economic implications," Lee explained. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF surged more than 6% on Friday, suggesting that the regional banking crisis could ultimately be contained without spilling over into a bigger problem for the stock market.
US regional lenders eke out gains after brutal sell-off
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
May 5 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. regional lenders rose in premarket trading on Friday following a brutal sell-off during the week that saw First Republic Bank collapse and peer PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) explore strategic options. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) has plunged about 31% this year as the sector grapples with deepening investor concerns with billions in market value wiped in recent weeks. PacWest, whose shares have plummeted 86% this year, said late on Wednesday it was in talks with potential partners and investors as it weighs strategic options. Shares of the bank plunged to close down 33%. Reporting by Manya Saini in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Amruta Khandekar Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
"We urge the SEC to consider all its existing tools and to take measures to reduce the avenues for abusive trading practices and restore investor confidence," the group said. "These measures include, at a minimum, a clear message and appropriate enforcement actions against market manipulation and other abusive short selling practices." Short sellers raked in $378.9 million in paper profits on Thursday alone from betting against certain regional banks, according to analytics firm Ortex. ABA President and CEO Rob Nichols told Gensler that short selling could be a legitimate financial tool, but his group was "unalterably opposed to short selling practices that distort the markets through manipulation and abuse." He called on Gensler to send a clear message to market players and take appropriate enforcement action against market manipulation and other abusive short selling practices.
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