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Gold was poised for its best week in three months as the dollar floundered, while crude oil rose to the highest in nearly three months. U.S. E-mini equity futures also pointed to a 0.16% lower restart for the S&P 500 (.SPX), after the index rallied 0.85% overnight. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major peers - edged about 0.1% lower to touch 99.637 for the first time since April of last year. "The dollar index can probably trade down toward 98 over the coming weeks without too many problems," said IG's Sycamore. It has rallied nearly 2% this week.
Persons: Gold, we've, Tony Sycamore, HSI, Korea's, Michele Bullock, Kevin Buckland, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Federal, Treasury, IG, Japan's Nikkei, U.S, Bank of Japan's, Reserve Bank of Australia, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Sydney, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Australia
But there's no clarity on what the final decision would be," said one of the sources on the chance of a policy shift in July. Lately, however, BOJ policymakers been dropping signs that inflation is being increasingly driven by improving consumer demand. CREDIBILITY ON LINEThere is no consensus within the BOJ on how soon it should start dialing back stimulus. Proponents of early action point to the rising cost of YCC, such as market distortions caused by the BOJ's huge bond buying. "A July policy tweak would contradict the logic the BOJ had been using to justify keeping easy policy," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda's reassurances, Ueda, Naomi Muguruma, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bank of, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, Tokyo, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Bank of Japan
Dollar deepens dive on inflation surprise
  + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The euro made a fresh 15-month high of $1.1148 in Asia on Thursday and the yen touched its strongest since mid-May at 138.08 per dollar. U.S. core inflation came in at 0.2% in June against market expectations for 0.3%. Moves in other currencies were smaller but still delivered new milestones as traders reckon the dollar has further to drop. The Swiss franc hit its strongest since 2015 at 0.8655 to the dollar and sterling a 15-month top of $1.3019. Amongst the dollar selling, one outlier was perhaps the yen which has led gains.
Persons: Imre Speizer, Malaysia's, Pita Limjaroenrat, Steve Englander, Kazuo, Ueda, Chang Wei Liang, Tom Westbrook, Jamie Freed, Kim Coghill Organizations: month's, U.S, Westpac, New Zealand, Swiss, Standard Chartered, Bank of Japan, Fed, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Scandinavia
Dollar takes a beating as traders see U.S. rates peaking
  + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar had its worst session in five months overnight, falling more than 1% against the euro to its lowest in more than a year and notching even larger losses elsewhere. U.S. core inflation came in at 0.2% in June against market expectations for 0.3%. Two-year Treasury yields, which track rate expectations, dropped more than 15 basis points overnight to 4.73%. Sterling sat at $1.2994, just below its overnight high of $1.3001. Chinese trade data is due later on Thursday, along with minutes from last month's European Central Bank meeting, European industrial production data and British monthly GDP.
Persons: Steve Englander, Sterling Organizations: month's, U.S, New Zealand, Sterling, Swiss, Standard Chartered, Swedish, Bank of Japan, Central Bank Locations: Asia, Scandinavia
Dollar takes a beating as traders see US rates peaking
  + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar had its worst session in five months overnight, falling more than 1% against the euro to its lowest in more than a year and notching even larger losses elsewhere. The New Zealand dollar reached a two-month high of $0.6309 and the Aussie a three-week peak of $0.6796. The moves were small, yet showed traders' faith the dollar has further to fall. Sterling sat at $1.2994, just below its overnight high of $1.3001. The Swiss franc , which hit its highest since 2015 overnight, traded just below that level at 0.8661 francs to the dollar.
Persons: Steve Englander, Sterling, Tom Westbrook, Jamie Freed Organizations: month's, U.S, New Zealand, Sterling, Swiss, Standard Chartered, Swedish, Bank of Japan, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Scandinavia
Dollar slumps ahead of US inflation data, sterling rises
  + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
"The (RBNZ) statement and minutes retained their dovish undertone overall, but they can't not warn that inflation is still 'too high' as they need to contain inflation expectations," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. The broader market focus remained on U.S. inflation data due later on Wednesday, with expectations for core consumer prices to have risen 5% on an annual basis in June. "We're already seeing markets move in anticipation of a softer U.S. inflation report," said City Index's Simpson. U.S. Treasury yields came under pressure on Wednesday, with the two-year yield and benchmark 10-year yield settling below 5% and 4%, respectively. "Speculation of a possible tweak could allow the (yen) some support ahead of the BOJ meeting this month."
Persons: BoE, Matt Simpson, we've, Index's Simpson, Sterling, YCC, Jane Foley, Rae Wee, Jamie Freed, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Bank of England, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S ., Fed, BoE . U.S, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, BoE .
An old British £1 note is pictured with a one Dollar bill note on January 07, 2023 in Bath, England. U.S. inflation data is due later on Wednesday, with expectations core consumer prices rose 5% on an annual basis in June. The figures should also provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve's progress in its fight against inflation. "We're already seeing markets move in anticipation of a softer U.S. inflation report," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. "Speculation of a possible tweak could allow the yen some support ahead of the BOJ meeting this month."
Persons: BoE, Matt Simpson, Simpson, YCC, Jane Foley, that's, Susan Kilsby Organizations: Bank of England, U.S ., Fed, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, ANZ Locations: Bath, England, U.S, Tuesday's, Asia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Summary Wholesale prices rise at slowest annual pace since April 2021Rise in utility bills, food prices moderatesYen-based import prices fall at fastest pace since July 2020TOKYO, July 12 (Reuters) - Japan's wholesale inflation slowed for a sixth straight month in June due to sliding fuel and commodity prices, data showed on Wednesday, a sign the cost-push pressure that drove up consumer prices is steadily easing. The data underscores the central bank's view that consumer inflation will slow in coming months as global commodity prices slide from last year's peak levels. But the pace appears to be moderating," Masato Higashi, head of the Bank of Japan's price statistics division, told a briefing. The rise, which followed a 5.2% gain in May, was the slowest annual pace since April 2021, data by the BOJ showed. Food and beverage prices increased 7.4% in June, smaller than a 8.0% gain in May, the data showed.
Persons: Masato Higashi, Leika, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Bank of, Thomson Locations: TOKYO
[1/6] A chef cooks tofu as he prepares a dish before the opening for dinner hour at Ukai, a traditional Japanese restaurant, in Tokyo, Japan, July 6, 2023. "There's no doubt rising wages and bonuses are among factors prodding customers to come dine with us despite the price hikes," said Ukai manager Yuka Hoshino. It is also drawing the attention of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which is shifting away from its view the recent cost-driven inflation will prove temporary. "Japan is seeing early signs of progress in achieving inflation accompanied by higher wages," another source said, a view echoed by two more sources. The BOJ is changing its tone on the drivers of inflation and how they see progress made in sustainably hitting 2% inflation.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Hiroki Wakita, Yuka Hoshino, Kazuo Ueda, Teikoku Databank, Akihito Sato, Shohei Kanai, Ryozo Himino, Seisaku Kameda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Research, Workers, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, French, Ginza
Morning Bid: China disinflation a mix of good and bad
  + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
On the face of it, this implies there is plenty of scope to ease monetary and fiscal policy further. Yet it also underlines the scale of the challenge that Beijing faces in avoiding an outright deflationary spiral. Globally, a deflationary pulse from China could over time help to offset service-driven inflation in developed nations. Disinflation in goods is a major reason analysts expect coming U.S. CPI data to show a slowdown in June. One side effect of the surge in bond yields has been a shake-out of carry trades in the forex market.
Persons: Wayne Cole, Andrew Bailey, Jeremy Hunt, Mary Daly, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Edmund Klamann Organizations: CPI, Headline, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, San, Cleveland, Atlanta, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Beijing, China
A jump in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons also suggested a weaker labor market, but the pace of job growth remains strong and with inflation still double the Fed's target rate, a rate hike this month is likely. "The Fed is being hawkish and that prevents the dollar from depreciating too much. After the jobs data, futures pointed to an 88.8% probability that the Fed hikes in three weeks. Adding a tailwind to the rally in the yen was some position-squaring among speculators, who have built up sizeable bearish positions, Hardman said. The Australian dollar rose 0.8% to $0.6681, but it is still battered by weak Chinese economic data and broad risk aversion.
Persons: Joe Manimbo, We're, Thierry Wizman, They've, Lee Hardman, Hardman, YEN, Herbert Lash, Amanda Cooper, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes, Mark Potter, Barbara Lewis, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Federal Reserves, Labor Department, Treasury, ECB, Strong U.S, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, New York, London, Singapore
Global financial markets have been closely watching Japan's wage data, as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda regards pay growth as a key gauge to consider in deliberations about a shift in policy. Regular wages rose 1.8% in May from a year before, labour ministry data showed, the biggest gain since February 1995. The strong base pay growth boosted worker's total cash earnings, or nominal wages, by 2.5% in May, after a revised 0.8% increase logged in April. Still, real wages contracted 1.2% in May, the 14th consecutive month of year-on-year declines, as relentless consumer inflation outstrips nominal pay growth and squeezes households' buying power. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, household spending was down 1.1%, versus an estimated 0.5% gain to mark a fourth month of decline.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Kuroda, Hisashi Yamada, Rengo, Takumi Tsunoda, Shinichi Uchida, Taro Saito, Satoshi Sugiyama, Kantaro, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: Global, Bank of Japan, Hosei University, Shinkin Central Bank Research, Nikkei, BOJ's, NLI Research, Thomson Locations: TOKYO
Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), far right, speaks during an event at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, May 31, 2023. Ueda said central banks need to be more careful about how they communicate with increase in their toolkits and advancements in monetary policy making. Global financial markets have been closely watching Japan's wage data, as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda regards pay growth as a key gauge to consider in deliberations about a shift in policy. Regular wages rose 1.8% in May from a year before, labor ministry data showed, the biggest gain since February 1995. The strong base pay growth boosted worker's total cash earnings, or nominal wages, by 2.5% in May, after a revised 0.8% increase logged in April.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Noriaki Sasaki, Kuroda, Hisashi Yamada, Rengo Organizations: Bank of Japan, Yomiuri Shimbun, Bloomberg, Getty, Global, Hosei University Locations: Tokyo, Japan
Japan's base salary growth hits 28-year high in May
  + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Base salary soared 1.8% in May year-on-year, the biggest rise since February 1995. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly stressed the need to keep policy accommodative until wages increase enough to keep price growth sustainably around its 2% target. The results from the labour talks will be reflected toward the summer, labour ministry officials said. Total cash earnings, or nominal wages, increased 2.5% year-on-year in May, after rising a revised 0.8% in April. Inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of households' purchasing power, dropped 1.2% in May from a year earlier, falling for 14 months straight.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Rengo, Satoshi Sugiyama, Devika Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Thomson Locations: TOKYO
Summary BOJ 'strongly acknowledges' side-effects of YCC - UchidaUchida rules out chance of early end to negative ratesJapan seeing signs of change in corporate behaviour - UchidaTOKYO, July 7 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank will maintain its yield curve control policy from the perspective of sustaining ultra-loose monetary conditions, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Friday. With inflation exceeding its 2% target for more than a year, markets are simmering with speculation the BOJ will tweak yield curve control (YCC) - a policy that guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% and caps the 10-year bond yield around 0%. Uchida said the BOJ "strongly acknowledges" the side-effects of YCC such as the impact on market function, according to Nikkei. But the central bank must support the economy amid recent signs of change in corporate wage and price-setting behaviour, Uchida was quoted as saying. Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Leslie Adler and Sandra MalerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Uchida Uchida, Uchida TOKYO, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, YCC, Leika Kihara, Leslie Adler, Sandra Maler Organizations: Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: Japan
The final survey of 5,272 unions affiliated with Rengo showed an average pay hike of 3.58%, or 10,560 yen ($73.04) per month, the biggest increase since 3.9% seen in 1993. Among them, SMEs raised wages by 3.23%, also the fastest pace in three decades. What's important from now on is to bring real wages to positive territory," said Hisashi Yamada, economist and Hosei University professor. The pay hikes could provide some political support for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida who has made wages as key part of his policy agenda, as a weak yen and higher import prices drive up living costs. Big firms' summer bonus payments are seen rising 3.9%, up for a second straight year, although gains are likely to be uneven, according to a survey by Keidanren, Japan's biggest business lobby.
Persons: Rengo, Kazuo Ueda, Hisashi Yamada, Fumio Kishida, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: Rengo, Bank of Japan, Hosei University, OECD, Thomson Locations: TOKYO
Akio Kon | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesJapan's Nikkei 225 can reach 40,000 points in the next 12 months as fundamentals are "pointing in the right direction," according to market strategist Jesper Koll. Should the prediction come true, this would mean that the Nikkei would have breached its all-time high of 38,195 achieved on Dec 29, 1989. Japan's central bank has maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy for more than 20 years. He said that while there is more upside in the Nikkei, "a lot of good news is already priced in." That's on the expectation that the BOJ will move to tighten monetary policy.
Persons: Akio Kon, Jesper Koll, CNBC's, Koll, Kazuo Ueda, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, Nikkei, Monex Group, Bank of Japan, CNBC Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Japan's, Koll, Sycamore
"This is sending signals that a coordinated intervention may be coming as yen continues to hover above 144 per dollar," said Charu Chanana, market strategist at Saxo Markets. "A coordinated intervention usually has a longer lasting impact on the yen than a unilateral intervention would have." RBA WATCHThe focus in Asian hours will be on the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). "We estimate that a hike would push up Aussie modestly by 0.8% so long as the post‑meeting statement was not dovish. The Australian dollar was at $0.668, up 0.16% against the U.S. dollar, while the New Zealand dollar was also up 0.16% at $0.616.
Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Masato Kanda, Janet Yellen, Charu, Kristina Clifton, CBA's Clifton, Ankur Banerjee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Saxo Markets, Bank, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S . Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Australian, U.S ., New Zealand, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Japan, U.S, United States, U.S ., Tokyo, Singapore
Factbox: Japan's toolkit to combat sharp yen declines
  + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
ESCALATE VERBAL INTERVENTION - HIGHLY LIKELYJapanese authorities began jawboning markets this week, describing recent yen falls as "sharp and one-sided". If the pace of yen declines accelerates, authorities may escalate their warnings to promise "decisive action" against speculative moves. Such remarks, aired prior to Japan's previous yen-buying intervention last year, would signal that Tokyo was edging closer to directly intervening in the currency market. This means the chance of intervention will rise if the yen's declines are rapid and viewed as driven mostly by speculative trading. BOJ RAISES INTEREST RATES - HIGHLY UNLIKELYThe Bank of Japan (BOJ) has vowed to keep interest rates ultra-low to support the economy, even as inflation exceeded its 2% target for more than a year.
Persons: Masato Kanda, Leika Kihara, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: Bank of Japan, Authorities, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Tokyo, Asia, United States, Japan, U.S
When Japanese authorities escalate their verbal warnings to say they "stand ready to act decisively" against speculative moves, that is a sign intervention may be imminent. When Japan intervenes to stem yen rises, the Ministry of Finance issues short-term bills, raising yen it then sells to weaken the Japanese currency. That means there are limits to how long Japan could keep defending the yen, unlike for yen-selling intervention - where Japan can essentially print yen by issuing bills. Japanese authorities also consider it important to seek the support of Group of Seven partners, notably the United States if the intervention involves the dollar. Washington gave tacit approval when Japan intervened last year, reflecting recent close bilateral relations.
Persons: Leika Kihara, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Kentaro Sugiyama, William Mallard Organizations: Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Market, Japan, Seven, Washington, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, Tokyo, United States, Washington
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.0 from 46.9 in May, the lowest reading since May 2020. "The ISM saw the dollar pare its earlier gains," he said. The yield on interest rate-sensitive two-year Treasuries fell on the news, before later heading higher, as did the dollar. The yen fell to near eight-month lows against the dollar as intervention came into sight after Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned on Friday against investors selling the yen too far as it weakened past the threshold of 145 to the dollar. The Japanese yen weakened 0.17% versus the greenback to 144.59 per dollar.
Persons: Marc Chandler, pare, Treasuries, Shunichi Suzuki, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, David Evans, Conor Humprhies, Christina Fincher Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Bannockburn Global, Japan, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Bannockburn, New York, China, London, Singapore
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - The yen fell on Monday to near eight-month lows against the dollar as investors said intervention was in sight, while the euro weakened after a slowdown in factory activity in China and the euro zone renewed economic growth fears. The dollar edged up ahead of the July 4 holiday after U.S. economic data last week showed slightly easing inflation and consumer spending. The yen weakened 0.37% to 144.86, after it touched its lowest level against the greenback since November on Friday. Euro zone manufacturing activity contracted faster than initially thought in June as persistent policy tightening by the European Central Bank squeezed finances, a survey showed on Monday, painting an increasingly gloomy outlook for industry. "Investors have commented that the euro zone cyclical story is losing momentum, and this is why the euro should be lower," HSBC's Mackel said adding that the euro is, however, holding up relatively well.
Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Paul Mackel, HSBC's Mackel, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, David Evans, Conor Humprhies Organizations: Finance, FX Research, HSBC, Japan, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, U.S, U.S . Federal, Citi, Labor, Survey, Thomson Locations: China, Japan, U.S ., U.S, United States, London, Singapore
The yen weakened 0.09% to 144.45 to start the second half of the year, having lost 9% against the dollar in the first six months of the year. Against the euro, the yen was hovering at 157.66, just under the 15-year low of 158 it touched last week. It intervened again in October after the yen plunged to a 32-year low of 151.94. Markets are pricing in a 84% chance of the Fed hiking rates by 25 basis points in its July meeting, CME FedWatch tool showed. The Australian dollar rose 0.02% to $0.667, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.42% at $0.615.
Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Suzuki, Marc Chandler, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Cushing, Kim Coghill Organizations: Finance, Japan, Bannockburn Forex, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S . Federal, Citi, Labor, Survey, NatWest, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Bannockburn, Japan, U.S ., U.S, United States, Singapore
"The tankan confirmed our view that Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery," said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute. "While input prices have declined, output prices continue to rise in a sign companies are being able to pass on costs. Big manufacturers expect business conditions to improve three months ahead, while non-manufacturers project a deterioration on worries over high costs, the tankan showed. The tankan showed corporate inflation expectations moderate in June from three months ago, but remaining above the BOJ's target five years down the road. Companies expect inflation to hit 2.6% a year from now, down from a 2.8% projection made in March, and 2.2% in three years, also lower than 2.3% in March.
Persons: Atsushi Takeda, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Big, Bank of Japan's, Itochu Economic Research Institute, Nikkei, Companies, Thomson Locations: TOKYO
Morning Bid: Tesla delivers surprise, China goes slow
  + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
July 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Chinese blue chips are a touch firmer, perhaps in the hope a new chief at the central bank will bring stronger stimulus. It was notable last week that Japanese chip shares surged amid reports Washington would restrict sales of AI equipment to China. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:- European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel speaks at a financial conference- June U.S. ISM manufacturing survey, PMI and auto sales. Equity and bond markets close earlyBy Wayne Cole; Editing by Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Wayne Cole, Janet Yellen, Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Tesla's, P, People's Bank of, Treasury, Nikkei, European, Japan's, ISM, Central Bank, PMI, Equity, Thomson Locations: Wayne, People's Bank of China, News, China, U.S, Washington, Japan
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