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Such "supercore" inflation has decelerated from a post-pandemic peak of 7-8% in the first half of 2022 but is still running much faster than the central bank’s declared flexible average inflation target of a little over 2%. The Fed has already boosted overnight interest rates by 450 basis points over the last 12 months to 4.50-4.75%, causing the biggest inversion of the yield curve since the double-dip recession in 1981. Interest rate traders currently expect the central bank to raise its overnight rate one more time by 25 basis points to 4.75-5.00% when policymakers meet on March 21-22. Most scenarios are somewhat pessimistic, involving some combination of persistent inflation, rising interest rates, tightening credit conditions and/or slowing business activity. Most of these outcomes would be at least mildly negative for petroleum consumption, which explains why benchmark oil prices have fallen since SVB’s failure.

Brent crude futures were down 76 cents, or 0.9%, to $82.02 per barrel by 11:51 a.m. EDT (1551 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) fell 75 cents, or 1%, to $75.93 a barrel. Fears of contagion from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank led to a sell-off in U.S. assets at the end of last week, while state regulators closed New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O) on Sunday. A weaker greenback makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies and typically supports oil prices. Worries about further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve have been exacerbated by high U.S. crude oil inventories.

☆ Crude prices rise slightly on China recovery, weaker dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Andrew Hayley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, March 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked up in Monday's Asian trade, reversing a weak start as a recovery in Chinese demand and a weaker dollar provided support to a market rattled by the prospect possible further U.S. interest rate increases. After initially slipping in early trading, Brent crude futures were up 25 cents, or 0.30%, to $83.03 per barrel by 0700 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) ticked up by 23 cents, or 0.30%, to $76.91 a barrel. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, lending support to oil prices. Comments on Sunday from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on crude demand from China also provided some support.

☆ Oil prices tick up on China demand and weaker dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, March 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked up in Monday Asian late morning trade, reversing a weak start as a recovery in Chinese demand and a weaker dollar provided support to a market rattled by the prospect possible further U.S. interest rate increases. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) ticked up by 20 cents, or 0.26%, to $76.88 a barrel. "From an oil trader's perspective, the U.S. dollar should pull back as traders give up on a re-acceleration of Fed hikes; this, in turn, clears a path for more robust Chinese fundamentals to dominate commodity trading," Innes added. A weaker greenback makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, lending support to oil prices. Comments on Sunday from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on crude demand from China also provided some support.

☆ Oil prices slip as concerns over rate hikes rattle investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, March 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped in Monday Asian morning trade as concerns about possible further U.S. interest rate hikes continue to rattle investors, though a recovery in Chinese demand and a weaker dollar provided some support. Market sentiment was fragile as worries about further monetary tightening by the Fed have been exacerbated by high crude oil inventories in the U.S., analysts from ANZ Bank observed in a note on Monday morning. A weaker greenback , which makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, helped lend support to oil prices. The dollar index was down 0.2% in Asian morning trade on Monday. Comments on Sunday from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on crude demand from China also provided some support.

Companies United States of America FollowMarch 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Friday as traders remained cautious about frequent and steeper rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, concerns that have triggered a rout in energy prices over the last three days. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned of higher and potentially faster rate hikes, saying the Fed was wrong in initially thinking inflation was "transitory" and was surprised by the strength of the labour market. Expectations of ongoing rate hikes in the world's largest oil producing country and similar remarks over the weekend by the European Central Bank President have cast a shadow over global growth, setting oil up for a weekly fall after two straight weeks of gains. The prospect of Friday's jobs report triggering faster rate hikes is already initiating steep declines in other financial markets, and analysts expect oil prices could also be under pressure. Analysts expect the U.S. economy to have added 205,000 jobs last month, and see unemployment rate holding firm.

Summary Oil prices near flat, after two days of lossesFed's Powell sets scene for higher and faster rate hikesUS crude stocks fall larger-than-expected - EIAMarch 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices were near flat on Thursday, as a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stocks contended with worries that more aggressive U.S. interest rate rises would strain economic growth and therefore dent oil consumption. Brent crude futures had edged higher by 5 cents to $82.71 per barrel by 0103 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 5 cents to $76.71 a barrel. U.S. crude stocks fell 1.7 million barrels last week, government data showed, compared with analyst estimates for a build of 395,000. Industry data late Tuesday showed a decline in crude inventories for the first time after a 10-week build. U.S. gasoline stocks drew down by 1.1 million barrels, according to official data, less than the 1.8 million forecast, adding to demand concerns.

In the past twelve months, the oil market has absorbed the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed in response by the United States, the European Union and their allies in Asia. As a result, benchmark oil prices have retreated by nearly 40% from their post-invasion high on March 8, 2022, after adjusting them for core inflation. Like all equilibria in the oil market, this one is likely to prove temporary and fragile - lasting until one or more of the risks around recession, inflation and China's post-pandemic rebound materialise or fade away. Conversely, if the global economy slides into a full-blown recession, inventories will rise and prices and spreads are likely to soften further. For the moment, however, the oil market has returned to balance less than twelve months after one of the largest shocks since the World War Two.

☆ Oil flat as China hopes, US stock draw contend with economic concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Brent crude futures had edged up by 2 cents to $82.68 per barrel by 0400 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures eased by 1 cent to $76.65 a barrel. "Oil prices are still under the influence of Powell's hawkish tone recently, and the increasing possibility of another 50 basis points hike rather than a 25 basis points one," said Suvro Sarkar, lead energy analyst at DBS Bank. "Oil prices will be caught in the tug of war between sentiment surrounding rate hikes and inflation targeting on the one hand, and China reopening on the other for much of the year, at least the first half." Despite the EIA inventory report posting the first crude draw of the year, crude demand uncertainty over the short term is "keeping oil prices heavy," said OANDA senior analyst Edward Moya in a note. "Until we see clear signs of China's recovery gaining steam, oil prices look like they want to stay heavy."

☆ Oil extends losses as rate hike concerns spur sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Ahmad Ghaddar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped $1.11, or 1.4%, to $76.47 a barrel. "[We] expect the continued recovery in civil aviation demand in China and neighboring countries, a stabilisation in industrial activity and slower non-OPEC+ supply growth to drive the oil market balance into a deficit later this year," the bank added. Data from the API showed U.S. crude inventories fell by about 3.8 million barrels in the week ended March 3, according to market sources. The drawdown defied forecasts for a 400,000 barrel rise in crude stocks from nine analysts polled by Reuters. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories rose by about 1.8 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by about 1.9 million barrels, according to the sources.

☆ Oil extends declines on rate hike concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Jeslyn Lerh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories fell by about 3.8 million barrels in the week ended March 3, according to market sources. The drawdown defied forecasts for a 400,000 barrel rise in crude stocks from nine analysts polled by Reuters. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories rose by about 1.8 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by about 1.9 million barrels, according to the sources. Powell's comments had propelled the U.S. dollar, which typically trades inversely with oil, to hit a three-month high against a basket of currencies. The dollar index =USD rose as high as 105.65, up 1.3% on Tuesday and the highest since Dec. 6.

Brent crude futures rose 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $83.47 per barrel by 0452 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 4 cents to $77.62 a barrel. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories fell by about 3.8 million barrels in the week ended March 3, according to market sources. The drawdown defied forecasts for a 400,000 barrel rise in crude stocks from nine analysts polled by Reuters. Traders were awaiting crude inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration later on Wednesday, after the API data showed a decline in crude inventories for the first time after a 10-week build, she added. Powell's comments propelled the U.S. dollar, which typically trades inversely with oil, to hit a three-month high against a basket of currencies.

☆ Oil stabilises as surprise US crude draw offsets rate hike jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures for April gained 8 cents to $83.37 per barrel by 0120 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost 4 cents to $77.54 a barrel. Supporting the market on Wednesday, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories fell by about 3.8 million barrels in the week ended March 3, according to market sources. The drawdown defied forecasts for a 400,000 barrel rise in crude stocks from nine analysts polled by Reuters. Gasoline inventories rose by about 1.8 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by about 1.9 million barrels, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

☆ Oil falls 3% on U.S. rate hike expectations, strong U.S. dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures shed $2.35, or 2.7%, to $83.83 a barrel by 1:05 p.m. EST (1805 GMT) . U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by $2.48 a barrel, or 3%, at $77.98. Prices sank after Powell told Congress the Fed would likely need to increase rates more than expected in light of recent strong economic data. More pressure came from a contraction in China's exports and imports in January and February, including crude oil imports, despite a lifting of COVID-19 restrictions. The American Petroleum Institute's weekly report is due at 2130 GMT on Tuesday, with U.S. Energy Information Administration data following at 1530 GMT on Wednesday.

☆ Oil falls 2% on U.S. rate hike expectations, stronger U.S. dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures shed $1.46, or 1.7%, to $84.72 a barrel by 11:06 a.m. EST (1606 GMT). Prices declined after Powell told Congress the Fed would likely need to increase rates more than expected in light of recent strong economic data. The remarks pushed up the U.S. dollar , which rose 0.70% on the day at 104.97. A stronger dollar typically reduces demand for dollar-denominated oil from buyers paying with other currencies. Further pressure came from a contraction in China's exports and imports in January and February, including crude oil imports, despite a lifting of COVID-19 restrictions.

☆ Oil edges lower on stronger dollar and weak Chinese data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Prices declined as the U.S. dollar rose ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jeremy Powell's testimony to Congress at 1500 GMT on Tuesday. A stronger dollar typically reduces demand for dollar-denominated oil from buyers paying with other currencies. Further pressure came from a contraction in China's exports and imports in January and February, including crude oil imports. U.S. crude inventories could register their first decrease in 10 weeks, a Reuters poll showed before official data is published this week. The American Petroleum Institute's weekly report is due at 2130 GMT on Tuesday, with Energy Information Administration data following at 1530 GMT on Wednesday.

Brent crude futures rose 18 cents to $86.36 per barrel by 0730 GMT after settling 0.4% higher on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $80.62 per barrel, up 16 cents, following a 1% gain in the previous session. "The supply concerns that helped oil prices higher overnight likely stemmed from Chevron's CEO comment that there's 'not a lot of swing capacity' in oil markets," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note. "The key unknown for 2023 will be the disruption to Russia's oil and refined product exports." ET (2130 GMT) on Tuesday, and at 10:30 a.m. (1530 GMT) on Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration.

☆ Oil edges up on supply concerns, China demand hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Companies Chevron Corp FollowSINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up after industry executives flagged concerns about limited spare capacity in the market and uncertainty over Russian supplies while demand from top crude importer China is recovering. Brent crude futures had risen 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $86.58 a barrel by 0154 GMT after settling 0.4% higher on Monday. "The supply concerns that helped oil prices higher overnight likely stemmed from Chevron's CEO comment that there's 'not a lot of swing capacity' in oil markets," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note. "The key unknown for 2023 will be the disruption to Russia's oil and refined product exports." ET (2130 GMT) on Tuesday, and at 10:30 a.m. (1530 GMT) on Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration.

☆ Oil steady as market juggles supply and demand fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures fell 22 cents, or 0.26%, to $85.96 a barrel by 1043 GMT. Bearish sentiment surrounded a contraction in China's exports and imports in January and February, including crude imports. The decline came despite a lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, pointing to weakness in foreign demand. "The key unknown for 2023 will be the disruption to Russia's oil and refined product exports," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note. The market will also look for direction from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee at 1500 GMT on Tuesday.

☆ Oil steadies after dipping on China outlook; investors await Fed clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies China's growth outlook down from last year's targetFed chair speaks to Congress this weekU.S. February jobs report also in focusHOUSTON, March 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Monday as top oil executives debated supply tightness at an oil conference in Houston. Oil market and logistics are tight and vulnerable to any unexpected supply disruption, as Russian oil is still getting to the market, but at different costs, oil major Chevron Corp (CVX.N) Chief Executive Mike Wirth said at the CERAWeek energy conference. Trading company Gunvor's CEO Torbjorn Tornqvist said crude prices may rise in the second half of the year as Chinese demand returns to the market, adding that the oil market has stabilised. China's closely watched growth outlook, announced on Sunday, was lower than last year's 5.5% target for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. At the same time, oil prices are likely to be affected by increases to interest rates across the world as global central banks tighten policy over fears of rising inflation.

☆ Oil dips on China outlook while investors await Fed clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures were trading down 60 cents, or 0.7%, at $85.23 a barrel by 1520 GMT. "Crude remains in a tug-of-war between optimism over Chinese reopening and nervousness over a hawkish Fed hurting the U.S. economy," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. China's closely watched growth outlook, announced on Sunday, was lower than last year's 5.5% target for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Policy sources had told Reuters the target could be set as high as 6% for 2023. At the same time, oil prices are likely to be affected by increases to interest rates across the world as global central banks tighten policy over fears of rising inflation.

☆ Oil prices open lower on modest Chinese growth forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Sudarshan Varadhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices opened lower on Monday after China set a modest target for economic growth this year of around 5%, lower than market expectations of 5.5% growth in the world's second- largest oil consumer. China's closely watched growth outlook was down from last year's target of 5.5% and came in at the low end of expectations. At the same time, oil prices are likely to be impacted by rate hikes across the world as global central banks tighten policy over fears of increasing inflation. Traders have started factoring in rate hikes across the world, but are hoping for smaller increases than last year. The United States' future rate hikes are also likely to depend on what the February payrolls report reveals on Friday, followed by the February inflation report due next week.

☆ Oil prices head for weekly gain on China growth hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Sudarshan Varadhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Brent crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $84.36 a barrel at 0147 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 41 cents, or 0.5%, at $77.75 a barrel%. Manufacturing activity in China grew last month at the fastest pace in more than a decade, reinforcing expectations of a fuel decmand recovery. Comments by Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic that the Fed should stick with "steady" quarter-point rate eased concerns in the U.S., and helped support oil prices on Thursday even after strong unemployment data. A 10th consecutive week of crude stock builds (USOILC=ECI) in the United States also weighed on the market this week.

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - Oil prices slumped on Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported that the United Arab Emirates had an internal debate about leaving OPEC and pumping more oil, but retraced some losses after a source told Reuters this was not true. Oil prices this week had been boosted by strong Chinese economic data, underpinning hopes for oil demand growth, but those gains were all but erased on Friday. "The driver was the WSJ story, with concerns that this might impact the OPEC+ production (cut) deal. China's seaborne imports of Russian oil are set to hit a record high this month. The world's top oil importer is becoming increasingly ambitious with its 2023 growth target, aiming as high as 6%, sources told Reuters.

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - Oil prices slumped on Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported that the United Arab Emirates had an internal debate about leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and pumping more oil. Oil prices this week had been boosted by strong Chinese economic data, underpinning hopes for oil demand growth, but those gains were all but erased on Friday. China's seaborne imports of Russian oil are set to hit a record high this month. "Those betting on higher oil prices are basking in the afterglow of the positive macro data out of China," said PVM analyst Stephen Brennock. Russia's plan to deepen oil export cuts in March also helped to buoy prices.

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