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"When you get into higher interest rates ... you look to your collateral," Rodeheaver said in an interview. "We are tightening on price and profitability ... That is going to slow lending a bit." "The economy has started to slow in an orderly fashion" in response to higher interest rates, Jefferson said, calling tighter credit conditions "part of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy." Powell, however, said he felt the impact of the credit shock "remains uncertain," and his own baseline outlook does not include a recession. Bank lending dipped about 1.7% in the two weeks following SVB's collapse, but has risen since then and recouped about a third of the decline.

☆ No office tower is safe from the roiling market — not even a trophy building housing Google and Visa deemed one of the best
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Potential problems at One Market Plaza show how far San Francisco's office market may fall. One Market Plaza has long been considered the pinnacle of San Francisco's office market. Autodesk plans to downsize by about 73,000 square feet to 211,000 square feet, a spokeswoman told Insider. Google did not respond to a request for comment on its plans for One Market Plaza. One Market Plaza could indicate how far San Francisco's office woes reachTurbulence at One Market Plaza indicates the extent of the problems facing San Francisco's office market.

☆ How a U.S. Debt Default Could Bring Down the Dollar - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Mike Lofgren | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

So they might also consider another potential scenario: Ever since President Richard Nixon de-linked the dollar from gold, doomsayers have predicted the imminent demise of the dollar as the world reserve currency. Having the world reserve currency has allowed the United States to run very large budget, merchandise trade and current account deficits for decades. Nations with dollar surpluses can’t sit on them; they recycle them as investments in the United States. That is why New York has the most liquid financial markets in the world. These strong markets in turn encourage many foreign central banks to hold their assets in New York as well.

☆ Mohamed El-Erian says the US is in the second stage of the banking turmoil – and lists 4 ways to avoid a 'significantly damaging' third phase.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mohamed El-Erian said conditions in the US banking sector have stabilized, but more can be done to prevent further damage. The Allianz economic adviser listed four ways the US can avoid a "damaging" third phase of banking tumult. Indeed, it must if we are to avoid a third phase entailing considerably more financial and economic damage," El-Erian, president of Queen's College, Cambridge University, said. "This second phase can also be contained. "Doing so is necessary if the US is to avoid a third, and significantly more damaging, phase of the banking turmoil," El-Erian said.

☆ Private-credit firms see opportunity as banks tighten lending
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Lisa Pauline Mattackal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 10 (Reuters) - Private-credit firms are eyeing fresh opportunities from a potential borrowing squeeze in the United States as battered regional banks tighten lending after the turmoil in the sector, according to fund managers and investment strategists. Such lenders see commercial and residential real estate as particularly attractive, given the prominence of regional banks in these sectors. Regional U.S. banks accounted for about 70% of outstanding loans to the commercial real estate (CRE) sector alone, according to Capital Economics. "Signature was one of the biggest providers of real estate lending in the New York area, commercial real estate is very vulnerable ... as a lender you want to be on the other side of that," Handa said. Many private credit funds have plenty of excess funds, or "dry powder" to invest, said Matt Malone, head of investment management at private investment management firm Opto Investments.

☆ CPI Report Today: Dow Futures Edge Down Ahead of Inflation Data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures edged lower ahead of inflation data that will help determine whether the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates or pauses next month. ET, are expected to show annual consumer-price inflation stuck at 5% in April, while core inflation slowed slightly to 5.4% from 5.6%. S&P 500, Dow industrials and Nasdaq-100 futures were down 0.2% or more. Regional bank stocks slipped. Brent-crude futures fell 1.6% to $76.21 a barrel.

☆ Betting Against Banks Brings Reward and Backlash
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Matt Wirz | Ben Foldy | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The FDIC seized First Republic Bank in early May and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeShort selling is back in vogue on Wall Street, rewarding some who bet against banks while triggering a backlash. Short selling, or betting that securities prices will fall, surged over the past year as many investors braced for market turbulence. The approach helped hedge funds beat major stock indexes last year for the first time since 2008.

☆ PacWest leads losses in regional bank stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 9 (Reuters) - Shares of PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) looked set to lead declines in U.S. regional lenders at market open on Tuesday as investors feared the ongoing banking crisis could deepen. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) hit a 30-month low last week after the collapse of First Republic Bank and PacWest's decision to explore strategic options. PacWest and Western Alliance, which have been at the heart of the sell-off in regional banks, saw the steepest decline in deposits in the first quarter after First Republic, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Western Alliance (WAL.N) dropped 1.5%, while First Horizon Corp (FHN.N) and Zion Bancorp (ZION.O) dipped 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, with Arfstrom noting that the pullback in banks shares overall have made their valuations attractive. Wall Street executives and bank analysts last week called on regulators to quickly provide more protection for bank deposits and consider other backstops, arguing only an intervention could stop the crisis.

☆ PacWest, Western Alliance lead slide in regional bank stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 9 (Reuters) - Shares of regional lenders PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) and Western Alliance (WAL.N) resumed their slide in premarket trading on Tuesday as investors feared the ongoing banking crisis could deepen. PacWest dropped 13.6%, a day after the Los Angeles-based lender's decision to cut its quarterly dividend failed to stem worries about its financial stability. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) had last week touched 30-month lows after the collapse of First Republic Bank and PacWest's decision to exploring strategic options. PacWest and Western Alliance, which have been at the heart of the banking selloff, saw the steepest decline in deposits in the first quarter after First Republic, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ A chief economist who called the 2008 housing crisis says home prices are set to drop another 15% as falling mortgage rates and a recession will create a supply-demand imbalance
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This will drag 30-year mortgage rates — which track closely with 10-year Treasury rates because they typically have a lifespan of around 12 years — down to 6% or lower. One might argue that falling mortgage rates would also stimulate demand enough to meet the rise in supply, holding prices relatively steady. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but mortgage applications are still falling. Tight monetary policy and a pullback in lending will lead to a cooling labor market, he said, and that's bad for housing demand. Below is the National Association of Realtors' Housing Affordability Index, which takes into account incomes, home prices, and mortgage rates.

☆ Corporate defaults are at their highest level in years, and it's poised to get even worse. Here are the 5 biggest players who went broke in March.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nidhi Pandurangi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Corporate default rates are at the highest level in years, according to a bankruptcy report released on April 14 by ratings agency Moody's. In the first quarter of the year, 33 companies rated by Moody's were unable to pay their debts. That's the highest number since the last quarter of 2020, when 47 companies defaulted on their debt, the agency said in the report. The ratings giant expects junk bond defaults could rise to 4.9% by March 2024, thanks to higher interest rates and slower economic growth. This list has been curated to highlight the biggest companies — by impact — that went broke and were unable to honor their debt obligations.

☆ Morning Bid: US uncertainty feeds caution in Asia
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Asia markets correspondent Kevin Buckland. European investors hoping to find some clues on market direction from Asia may be disappointed today. Overall, the market mood was cautious ahead of the week's trading highlight, Wednesday's U.S. CPI report, which will put to the test the market's view that the Fed is done hiking. Reuters GraphicsAnd there are several other reasons that investor attention is squarely on the U.S., with the debt ceiling tussle deadlocked and banking sector troubles simmering. The Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey ('SLOOS') also buoyed the mood, showing tighter lending conditions but no impending credit crunch.

☆ Wall Street analysts like these regional bank stocks if you can withstand the chaos in the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The continued slide for regional bank stocks after the failure of First Republic last week has created some buying opportunities in the sector, according to Wall Street analysts. "We believe this recent stock reaction is overdone as there is currently no evidence of accelerating deposit outflows. We see accelerating deposit costs, not accelerating deposit outflows, as the most significant headwind for the midcap banks over the next several quarters," Gosalia wrote. Huntington and Webster also rise to the top of the heap for RBC Capital Markets analyst Jon Arfstrom. Both Huntington and Webster are down about 30% for the year, which is better than the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE).

☆ Why bank stocks are so unstable
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

New York CNN —The financial sector has been churning in rough water since the shocking collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. Bank insiders see this and have been buying up shares of regional lenders, according to a report by Timothy Coffey, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott. The Oracle of Omaha said he remains cautious about holding bank stocks and that he has reduced his own exposure to the sector. The S&P 500 financial sector, however, is down more than 12% over the same period. Economists were hoping that this year would bring better news, but instead 2023 brought the collapse of three US regional banks and a subsequent lending squeeze.

☆ Warren Buffett Has a History With Banks—as a Critic and Investor
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Ben Eisen | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The FDIC seized First Republic Bank and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeWhen there is turmoil in the banking industry, there is an urge to point fingers. Warren Buffett weighed in Saturday: Blame the chief executives of recently failed banks. Blame the board of directors, too, for failing to hold the executives accountable.

For most of the day, stocks struggled for direction amid disappointing earnings from Tyson Foods and Catalent and a short-lived rebound in regional banks. The struggle for a clearer direction comes after a rally on Friday, when U.S. jobs data pointed to a resilient labor market. Producer prices, weekly jobless claims and consumer sentiment data are all lined up for the week. Shares of regional banks tumbled for much of last week on worries tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc's Class B shares rose after posting a $35.5 billion first-quarter profit, boosted by gains from stocks such as Apple.

The struggle for a clearer direction comes after a rally on Friday, when U.S. jobs data pointed to a resilient labor market. Producer prices, weekly jobless claims and consumer sentiment data are all lined up for the week. A rally in regional banks' shares proved short-lived, with PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) rising 5.6% after gaining as much as about 30% earlier in the session after the lender sharply cut its quarterly dividend to boost capital. Shares of regional banks tumbled for much of last week on worries tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc's Class B shares rose 0.9% after posting a $35.5 billion first-quarter profit, boosted by gains from stocks such as Apple.

Producer prices, weekly jobless claims and consumer sentiment data are all lined up through the week. "The bigger picture is inflation will remain higher for longer and that we are heading into a recession. The KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) fell 2.2% after posting its best single-day performance in seven weeks on Friday. Shares of regional banks tumbled for much of last week on worries tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. The S&P index recorded 10 new 52-week highs and four new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 47 new highs and 53 new lows.

☆ Fed says banking sector looks set to weather recent turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, May 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. banking sector overall appears well-positioned to weather recent industry turmoil, but the experience could still weigh on credit conditions in the future, the Federal Reserve said on Monday. In aggregate, it said banks remain well-capitalized. DEBT LIMIT CONCERNSThe Fed released the report shortly after a separate central bank survey found banks were tightening credit standards amid weaker loan demand. Beyond banks, the Fed said pressures on various market sectors remained within historical norms. Banking sector stresses were identified as a risk by more than half of respondents, up from 12% in the November report.

Regional bank shares stretched gains from a rebound on Friday, with PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) jumping 33% premarket after the company announced quarterly dividend. Shares of such banks tumbled for much of last week on worries tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. ET, Dow e-minis were up 67 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 6 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 4.25 points, or 0.03%. Data on producer prices, weekly jobless claims and on consumer sentiment are all lined up through the week. On earnings, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc's Class B shares rose 1.5% after the company posting a $35.5 billion first-quarter profit, reflecting gains from stocks such as Apple.

☆ This 'dirt cheap' regional bank stock could rebound more than 100%, Janney says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Janney analyst Timothy Coffey said in a note to clients Monday that Western Alliance is now "dirt cheap" and reiterated his buy rating on the stock. "Bank stocks of all stripes have been volatile since Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were closed in mid-March. However, recent volatility in WAL (and, for that matter, PACW, BUY-rated) do not indicate company-specific weakness," the Janney note said. Janney has a fair value estimate of $63 per share for Western Alliance, which is more than 100% above where the stock closed on Friday. The stock was trading above $70 per share in March before Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, triggering the sell-off for regional banks.

☆ Premarket stocks: The Fed could be on the verge of repeating its 1970s mistake
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But Gary Richardson, a Federal Reserve historian, is worried policymakers — now contemplating taking a breather — still risk repeating mistakes from that era. A premature retreat could cause the Fed to lose its handle on the situation, presenting even grimmer options down the road. Quick rewind: The chair of the Federal Reserve at the time, Arthur Burns, hiked interest rates dramatically between 1972 and 1974. Inflation later roared back, forcing the hand of Paul Volcker, who took over at the Fed in 1979, Richardson said. But the comparisons reveal the high stakes for the Federal Reserve at a moment of acute uncertainty.

On the other end, regional banks' shares stretched gains from a rebound on Friday, with PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) jumping 19.9% after the lender sharply cut its quarterly dividend to boost capital. Shares of such banks tumbled for much of last week on worries tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. "We're in an information vacuum right now, waiting for the next inflation data. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc's Class B shares rose 1.2% after posting a $35.5 billion first-quarter profit, reflecting gains from stocks such as Apple. The S&P index recorded seven new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 31 new highs and 23 new lows.

"Responding to such changes have become a common challenge for countries across the world, including Japan," he said, adding that the topic will be among many issues to be discussed at this week's G7 meeting. "We're watching the situation with a strong sense of alarm, as markets and economies are globally intertwined," he said, adding that Japan's banking system was stable as a whole. Japan would aim to issue a G7 joint communique after the finance leaders' meeting, which may stress the need for authorities to remain vigilant to banking-sector woes, two government sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. The Nikkei newspaper reported on Tuesday the G7 finance leaders will discuss setting up individual emergency plans in case they face digital bank runs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who will travel to Japan, will tell her G7 counterparts that the U.S. banking system remains sound, a senior Treasury official said on Friday.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets await US banks' take on credit squeeze
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. In the meantime, everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, or 'SLOOS', to see just how much lending has tightened given the strife in U.S. regional banks. The last survey out in January showed a combined 44.8% of respondents saw a tightening of standards for large and middle-market firms. It would also be consistent with levels reached before or during the last four recessions - 1990-91, 2001, 2007-09 and early 2020. This week also sees Chinese data on inflation and trade, while G7 finance ministers meet in Niigata, Japan, from Thursday through Saturday.

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