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For much of this year central banks have successfully pushed back against rate cut bets. "I believe the Fed will act rationally and begin to cut rates by the end of next year, but we can't rule out the scenario that the Fed is not going to cut rates and just let the ramifications of recession do what they do." Reuters GraphicsSHIFT NEARINGMarkets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. "There are now committee members in all three (banks) willing to talk about rate cuts next year," said Chris Jeffery, head of rates and inflation strategy at LGIM. "The ECB should begin to ease policy as soon as April 2024, with risks that a more sinister downturn in growth could warrant a rate cut as soon as March," he said.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, ramping, It's, Nate Thooft, Goldman, Christopher Waller, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Chris Jeffery, we'd, Dario Perkins, Simon Harvey, Yoruk, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Roberston, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebasvili, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Manulife Investment Management, Treasury, Graphics, Bank of England, Deutsche, Lombard, Traders, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Goldman Sachs, Greek, Amsterdam, London

The French bank also did not comment on plans to end its research partnership with Morningstar after more than four years. The expansion of the equities business by BNP comes as its Wall Street peers have reduced investment banking headcount this year amid sluggish trading and dealmaking activities. In Asia, BNP competes with large Western banks including Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N), JPMorgan (JPM.N) and UBS (UBSG.S), as well as a host of local investment banks in the cash equities business. One of the sources said BNP could boost its Asia equities headcount by as much as 20 over the next year. The bulk of BNP's in-house equities research team, mainly in Hong Kong and Singapore, departed as a result of that deal.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Morningstar, Jean, Laurent Bonnafe, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Jason Yates, BNP's, William Bratton, Exane, Bratton, " Yates, Selena Li, Sumeet Chatterjee, Jamie Freed Organizations: BNP, Bank, REUTERS, Morningstar, Deutsche, JPMorgan, UBS, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Asia, Asia Pacific, Europe, U.S, Russia, Ukraine, Pacific, BNP's, Hong Kong, Singapore, China, South Korea, India

☆ Analysts increasingly believe this retailer is the top holiday pick
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Analysts on Wall Street think Five Below is the retail stock investors should be buying as the holiday shopping season picks up steam. The report underpins a broader bullish trend for the retailer, analysts say, which is a more cost-sensitive consumer who is partial toward bargain hunting. Analyst Jason Haas noted the popularity of Five Below could improve further as shoppers gear up for the Christmas holiday. FIVE becomes most needs-based during the holiday season and the rollout of Five Beyond (products $6-25) better positions it in the gift-giving category." "All in, we think FIVE is well positioned to outperform in the current environment and will gain share behind several catalysts (e.g.

Persons: Jason Haas, Haas, Krisztina Katai, Katai, Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman, Gutman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: LSEG, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank

Rates futures markets are showing cuts being priced as early as May 2024, according to LSEG data. The prospects for rate cuts received a boost on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Deutsche Bank economists on Monday projected 175 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2024, but said that those cuts would come with a mild recession in the first half of next year. “Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year,” they wrote in a Wednesday report. Others said investors may be overestimating how quickly the Fed might react to signs of slowing inflation.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, ” Ablin, Christopher Waller, ”, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, Thomas Barkin, Charlie McElligott, Michael Green, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Cresset, Gross, Harbor, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, stoke, Carolina, New York

☆ Wall Street is again making predictions for next year, but don't pay too much attention
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Not surprisingly, Wall Street tends to be a bullish group. Wall Street has a terrible track record All of this gets investor juices flowing. Wall Street strategists collectively have a terrible track record. As a result, you might be tempted to think you should pay no attention to Wall Street, or anybody else. If nothing else, the predictions of Wall Street strategists are a good starting point for all of us to think about the near future.

Persons: Lori Calvasina, America's Savita Subramanian, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jeff Sommer, Sommer, Morgan Housel, I'm Organizations: Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets, Bank, America's, Wall Street, of America, Barclays, UBS, Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Street, New York Times, Yardeni Research, Federal Reserve, Wall Locations: Wells Fargo, Russia, Ukraine, Israel

☆ Moby Don: Trump's fraud-trial 'victim,' Deutsche Bank, praised him as a lucrative 'whale' in fawning in-house documents
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Laura Italiano | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Reps from Deutsche Bank, which NY says was defrauded, described actually prospering thanks to Trump. Advertisement"We are whale hunting," former Deutsche Bank executive Rosemary Vrablic told her fellow bankers of Trump in an email from 2011, soon after son-in-law Jared Kushner offered to make an introduction. She contends that Deutsche Bank was defrauded out of more than $100 million in interest income. As a sophisticated international lender, the bank did its own risk analysis, apart from Trump's net-worth statements, the defense has argued. But the state has countered that any fact-checking, any profit-making, and any other non-victim-like behavior on the part of Deutsche Bank is besides the point.

Persons: Trump, —, Donald Trump's, Stans, Rosemary Vrablic, Jared Kushner, Vrablic, Donald, Trump attorney Jesus Suarez, Nam, Huh Trump, Arthur Engoron, Letitia James, Donald Trump , Jr, Ivanka Trump, Kevin Wallace Organizations: Trump, Deutsche Bank, Service, Trump - Deutsche Bank, Post, Washington , D.C, Trump attorney, Hotel, Tower, AP, AG, Trump Organization Locations: Manhattan, New York, Miami, Chicago, Washington ,

☆ Bill Ackman says the US economy faces a real risk of a 'hard landing' if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bill Ackman said in a Bloomberg podcast he expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates soon. He said the US economy risks a sharp downturn if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates soon. AdvertisementBill Ackman expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates as early as the first quarter of next year. The Fed needs to cut interest rates soon to avoid a sharp downturn in the US economy, the billionaire investor said on Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations." The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022 in an effort to cool soaring inflation.

Persons: Bill Ackman, —, David Rubenstein, That's, Ackman, Rubenstein, There's Organizations: Bloomberg, US Federal Reserve, Service, Carlyle Group, Deutsche Bank, European Central Bank, UBS Locations: Israel, Swiss

☆ European Union should consider scrapping banker bonus cap - Deutsche Bank CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Christian Sewing, CEO of Deutsche Bank, poses after an interview with Reuters in Hong Kong, China September 8, 2023. REUTERS/Selena Li/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The European Union should consider scrapping a cap on banker bonuses to remain competitive with other financial centres, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing said on Wednesday. Sewing told a Financial Times event in London that the bloc should take account of other jurisdictions that are ditching similar caps - including Britain - and consider replicating the reform, providing it did not revive a culture of excessive risk taking. Reporting by Iain Withers, editing by Sinead CruiseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Selena Li, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing, Iain Withers, Sinead Cruise Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Reuters, REUTERS, European, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian, Financial, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, China, European Union, London, Britain

The New York attorney general, Letitia James, sued Mr. Trump in 2022 for inflating his net worth on his annual financial statements to receive favorable loans from banks, notably including Deutsche Bank. Before the trial, the judge found that the statements were filled with examples of fraud; the trial will determine any consequences the former president may face. Mr. Trump has protested the premise of the case, insisting that the banks did their own due diligence and that misstatements in the financial documents would not have affected the overall terms of the loans. The bankers who testified this week supported that argument when asked about the loan process. He said repeatedly that the bank had performed that diligence and factored its own analysis into the relationship with Mr. Trump.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Letitia James, ” David Williams Organizations: New, Mr, Deutsche Bank Locations: New York

☆ UK's FTSE 100 lags regional peers as banks, insurers fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Shashwat Chauhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) index dipped 0.1%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.5%. The life insurance sector (.FTNMX303010) fell 0.4%, with Prudential (PRU.L) slipping 0.7% after Deutsche Bank reduced its price target on the stock. Banks (.FTNMX301010) slipped 1.7% following a 2.3% fall in HSBC (HSBA.L), which was the biggest weight on the FTSE 100. Among individual stocks Halfords Group (HFD.L) plunged 21.1% after the bicycles-to-car parts retailer narrowed its annual profit forecast range. Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Eileen SorengOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Toby Melville, Andrew Bailey, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Eddie Cheng, Banks, Shashwat Chauhan, Dhanya Ann Thoppil, Eileen Soreng Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, REUTERS, Aviva, Bank of England, Prudential, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Allspring Global Investments, HSBC, Halfords, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, Europe, United States, Bengaluru

☆ Wall Street's dream of 'immaculate disinflation' is becoming reality and the economy is doing a lot better than people think, Nobel economist Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"Immaculate disinflation" is becoming a reality, according to Nobel economist Paul Krugman. Inflation coming down without sparking a recession is a dream scenario for Wall Street. By a number of metrics, the economy is better off than it was a few years ago, Krugman said. AdvertisementWall Street's dream scenario is becoming a reality – and despite gloomy sentiment in pockets of the market, the economy is actually doing way better than people think, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman. But slowing inflation hasn't triggered a rise in unemployment or the start of a recession, pushing Wall Street closer to its dream scenario.

Persons: Paul Krugman, Krugman, —, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Commerce Department, New York Times, Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank

☆ At Trump's NY fraud trial, a rep for 'victim' Deutsche Bank wouldn't use the F-word — for fraud
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Laura Italiano | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Trump's civil fraud trial, which could run him and Trump Org out of NY, is in its ninth week. A rep for Trump's biggest "victim," Deutsche Bank, testified Tuesday as an unlikely defense witness. AdvertisementDonald Trump's defense team tried to turn the tables at his civil fraud trial on Tuesday — calling a representative from his own biggest fraud victim, Deutsche Bank, to the witness stand in his defense. "We're expected to conduct due diligence and verify the information provided to the extent that's possible," the witness, Dave Williams, a Deutsche Bank managing director, told Trump's attorney Clifford Robert. Undaunted, Trump's side plans to continue Wednesday with direct examination of yet another Deutsche Bank official.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, Trump, Letitia James, Dave Williams, Clifford Robert, Trump's, Williams, Sherief Gaber, Gaber, Arthur Engoron, Christopher Kise Jane Rosenberg, Christopher Kise, Kise, Kevin Wallace, general's, Eric Trump, Donald Trump Organizations: Trump Org, Deutsche Bank, Service, Trump, New, Trump Organization, Reuters Locations: NY, Miami, Chicago, Washington , DC, New York

ORLANDO, Florida, Nov 29 (Reuters) - If cash has been king, the Fed may be plotting regicide. But once the first Fed cut comes into view, that money will move rapidly out the maturity curve and into riskier assets. A recent report by BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, notes that on average, cash returns 4.5% in the year following the final Fed rate hike, significantly underperforming a wide array of asset classes. Of that, $2.24 trillion is in retail investor funds and $3.52 trillion is in institutional funds. According to Bank of America, investors have poured $1.2 trillion into money market funds so far this year.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Justin Christofel, Cash, Goldman Sachs, Ray Dalio, Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: BlackRock, Fed, ICI, Bank of America, Goldman, BofA, Deutsche Bank, U.S, Bridgewater, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, BlackRock

☆ Market vulnerabilities and a possible U.S. recession: Strategists give their cautious predictions for 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The market is now largely pricing a peak at the current Fed funds target range of 5.25-5.5%, with interest rate cuts to come next year. watch now"At the outer edges of the economy there is obvious stress that is likely to spread in 2024 with rates at these levels. So it's easy to see how bad levered investments could have been made that would be vulnerable to this higher rate regime." Recession risk 'delayed rather than diminished' In a roundtable event on Tuesday, JPMorgan Asset Management strategists echoed this note of caution, claiming that the risk of a U.S. recession was "delayed rather than diminished" as the impact of higher rates feeds through into the economy. "I think the the key conclusion here is that interest rates do still bite, it's just taking longer this time around," she said.

Persons: Victor J, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, GSAM, Karen Ward, it's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Global Economics, Research, Silicon Valley Bank, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, European Central Bank, Fed, ECB, JPMorgan, Management Locations: New York, Washington, U.S, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Poland

☆ Investors spy value in cheap Finnish stocks after China and Russia pain
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Danilo Masoni | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Finnish stocks are Europe's biggest laggards this year, as risks stemming from tensions with Russia and concerns over China's stuttering recovery have hurt its exporters. The top 25 stocks in Helsinki are worth a combined $150 billion. The OMX Helsinki 25 (.OMXH25) has lost 10% this year, versus the STOXX 600's (.STOXX) 8% rally. "Finnish stocks are attractively valued and a lot of bad news is priced in," Alava said. "If the European economy recovers in 2024 as I expect, Finnish cyclical stocks should recover too... this could be a good time for long-term investors to increase holdings".

Persons: Finland's, Tomas Hildebrandt, EVLI, Hilderbrant, Hertta Alava, Henrik Ehrnrooth, Schindler, Nordea's Alava, LSEG, Danilo Masoni, Christina Fincher Organizations: OMX Helsinki, STOXX, Nordic, Novo Nordisk, Deutsche Bank, NATO, Russia, Zurich, Otis, Metsa Board, Thomson Locations: Russia, Helsinki, Finland, Europe, China, Ukraine, U.S, French, OMX Helsinki, Alava

☆ Stock-market bulls are growing bolder: Now Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will hit a record 5,100 in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The benchmark S&P 500 will climb 12% to hit a new all-time high of 5,100, strategists said. Much of Wall Street has turned bullish on the index, which has defied gloomy predictions to rack up stellar gains this year. AdvertisementDeutsche Bank has become the latest big name on Wall Street to issue a bullish stock-market forecast for 2024, with analysts predicting the S&P 500 will soar to a fresh all-time high next year. AdvertisementWall Street bullishnessThere's clearly an optimistic atmosphere amongst stock-pickers right now, with Deutsche Bank far from the only big name on Wall Street to predict the S&P 500 could climb to record highs. Burnishing Chadha's credentials is the fact that he was one of the only Wall Street strategists who called this year's surprise stock-market rally.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, …, Binky Chadha, Tesla, Société Générale, Brian Belski, Burnishing Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital, Deutsche, Business, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, Facebook, Nasdaq, Dow Jones

☆ Premarket stocks: Why investors are looking forward to 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The S&P 500 currently sits around 4,550. BMO’s chief investment strategist Brian Belski has predicted that the S&P 500 will close out 2024 at a healthy 5,100. The S&P 500 has gained about 18.5% so far this year after falling nearly 20% in 2022. Despite elevated borrowing costs, three years of high inflation and increasing numbers of Americans dipping into their retirement plans, consumers continue to keep the US economy chugging. Google accounts include everything from Gmail to Docs to Drive to Photos, meaning all content sitting across an inactive user’s Google suite is at risk of erasure.

Persons: New York CNN — It’s, ”, Candace Browning, Browning, Goldman Sachs, Lori Calvasina, America’s Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Brian Belski, “, Matt Egan, ” Michelle Meyer, Jennifer Korn, it’s, Google Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bank of America, RBC, BMO Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets, Bank, America’s, Federal Reserve, Mastercard Economics Institute, CNN, Adobe Analytics, Google Locations: New York

The deals came with conditions about Trump’s net worth and, sometimes, liquidity, and they often required annual submissions of his financial statements. But, testifying for the defense, managing director David Williams said the bankers viewed clients' reports of their net worth as “subjective or subject to estimates” and took its own view of such financial statements. The attorney general's office, however, has maintained that such adjustments were never intended to account for the alleged fraud. He asserted in his own testimony this month that his lenders cared more about property locations and the parameters of the deals than they did about the financial statements. “Are you aware of any time Deutsche Bank didn’t adhere to its own guidelines in making loans to President Trump?” defense attorney Jesus M. Suarez asked.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Letitia James, Trump, baldly, David Williams, “, it’s, ” Williams, Williams, “ It’s, Nicholas Haigh, ”, Arthur Engoron, There's, Engoron, James, Jesus M, Suarez, James ’, haven’t Organizations: Deutsche Bank, D.C, New York, Democrat, Trump Locations: Florida, Chicago, Washington, New York

☆ The stock market could plunge as much as 27% when the economy finally tips into recession, investment research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

That's because the US economy remains on track to enter a recession as high interest rates take a toll. A downturn could cause stocks to plummet as much as 27%, the investment research firm predicted. Economists have been warning of a potential recession since 2022, when central bankers began to aggressively raise interest rates to tame high inflation. AdvertisementLending conditions are tightening under the influence of higher-for-longer interest rates, leading some experts to warn of a coming default cycle on the horizon. "Cracks" also appear to be forming in the job market as firms slow their pace of hiring, BCA strategists said.

Persons: — Organizations: Research, Service, BCA Research, Fed, ECB, Deutsche Bank , Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets

☆ Stocks are headed nowhere fast with high rates likely to weigh on the S&P 500 for all of 2024, Wells Fargo says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks won't bring much joy in 2024, according to Wells Fargo. The bank expects the benchmark S&P 500 to trade within a narrow range the whole year. AdvertisementInvestors shouldn't count on the stocks' stellar run lasting much longer with higher interest rates likely to weigh on the market for all of 2024, according to Wells Fargo. In a research note published Monday, strategists at the bank said they expected the S&P 500 to be trading at between 4,600 and 4,800 points by the end of 2024. Wells Fargo's latest outlook puts it on the more bearish side of Wall Street, with many analysts saying the S&P 500 could have another strong year with the US economy looking likely to avoid a long-predicted recession.

Persons: —, Austin Pickle, Wells, Chris Harvey –, they're Organizations: “ Equity, Service, Fargo Investment Institute, Fed, CNBC, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets Locations: Wells Fargo, Fargo, Wall

☆ Barclays strategic fix will entrench low valuation
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Barclays (BARC.L) is looking for a valuation cure. Cutting into the investment bank and reallocating to the more stable retail operations may look enticing but is hard to do without upending short-term returns. Still, the currently favoured suggestion of cutting less profitable investment bank clients sounds equally tricky, and might only shave at most a tenth off Barclays’ 219 billion pounds of corporate and investment bank risk-weighted assets. At Credit Suisse-inflated UBS (UBSG.S), which trades near book value, investment bank RWAs are 25%. Even getting Barclays’ corporate and investment RWAs back to 50% of the total would involve shrinking them by over a fifth.

Persons: Venkatakrishnan, Aimee Donnellan, Julius Baer’s, Warren Buffett, George Hay, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Barclays, Barclays ’, Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, UBS, X, Thomson Locations: reallocating

☆ BMO sees solid US stock gains ahead, S&P 500 ending 2024 at 5,100
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

In a market outlook report, BMO Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belski and his team projected the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) would end 2024 at 5,100, nearly 12% above Friday's closing level. Investors have various definitions of a bull market, although one common definition requires the S&P 500 to reach a new all-time high to confirm a bull market. Separately on Monday, strategists at Deutsche Bank also forecast the S&P 500 would end 2024 at 5,100. BMO sees S&P 500 earnings rising about 13.6% in 2024, a "significant rebound" from this year. "We also believe that volatility is likely to subside as macro-environment resiliency continues to surprise alongside falling inflation," the BMO strategists said.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Brian Belski, Lewis Krauskopf, Will Dunham Organizations: REUTERS, BMO Capital Markets, BMO Chief, BMO, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

☆ Deutsche Bank sees 12% upside to S&P 500 through 2024-end
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The logo of Deutsche Bank is seen in Brussels, Belgium December 6, 2022. REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 27 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank on Monday forecast the S&P 500 (.SPX) to end next year 12% higher as it expects corporate earnings to remain resilient even if the United States experiences a mild and short recession. Deutsche Bank analysts expect the index to end 2024 at 5,100 points. Deutsche Bank's 2024-end S&P 500 target is 8.5% higher than the 4,700 median forecast of 33 strategists polled by Reuters. "If earnings growth continues to recover as we forecast, valuations will remain well supported around the top of the range as is typical on the pricing in of a pickup in earnings growth," the strategists said.

Persons: Yves Herman, Roshan Abraham, Rashmi Aich, Mrigank Organizations: Deutsche Bank, REUTERS, Deutsche, Reuters, Reserve, BofA, Research, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium, United States, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks stall after VIX hits pre-COVID low
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. As U.S. markets return in earnest from the long Thanksgiving weekend, Friday's shortened session threw up a remarkable milestone. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered just under 4.50% first thing, about 10 basis points up from Wednesday's intraday low. Deutsche Bank on Monday said it expected a whopping 175bp of Fed rate cuts in 2024 as a mild recession there hits - leaving the policy rate at just 3.63% at yearend. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Wall, Friday's, Jerome Powell, MSCI's, Christine Lagarde, Bernadette Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Global, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Property, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, Chaoyang Public Security, Health, Beijing, Exchange, Reuters, Beijing Stock Exchange, Dallas Fed, . Treasury, Central Bank, Sciences, Share, Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, yearend, Asia, European, Gaza, Beijing

☆ US recession will prompt 175 basis points in Fed cuts next year, DB economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

In an outlook report, the Deutsche Bank economists projected 175 basis points in rate cuts in 2024. With the Fed rate currently at 5.25%-5.5%, that would reduce the rate to 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year. At the same time, the bank expects that the economic weakness "eases inflationary pressures," Ryan said. DB expects an initial cut of 50 basis points at the Fed's June 2024 meeting, followed by 125 bps of additional cuts over the rest of the year. The U.S. economy so far has appeared to stave off predictions of a recession even as the Fed has hiked rates by 525 basis points since March 2022.

Persons: Brett Ryan, “, ”, Ryan, Lewis Krauskopf, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal, Deutsche Bank, Traders, Reuters, DB, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York

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