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REUTERS/Issei Kato/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 26 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Asian markets on Thursday are set to open on the defensive, with sentiment battered by one of the biggest selloffs of the year in U.S. tech stocks and a renewed spike in longer-dated U.S. Treasury bond yields the day before. The fog of uncertainty descended further over China's embattled property sector after it was reported on Wednesday that China's largest private lender Country Garden has defaulted on a U.S. dollar bond for the first time. But the broader tone in Asia on Thursday will be set by another decline in U.S. stocks and bonds. The global market moves represented a familiar pattern since the flare-up in Middle East violence nearly three weeks ago - higher bond yields, a 'bear steepening' of the U.S. yield curve, a stronger dollar, and higher oil and gold prices.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Michele Bullock's, Bullock, Josie Kao Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Treasury, Reserve Bank of Australia, Central Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Singapore, Asia, East, Korean, Korea

☆ NY Fed to tackle weather-related risks in upcoming research barrage
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] A woman passes by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2023. The New York Fed foray into the topic comes as the central bank has retreated from the climate issue after facing heat from some members of Congress. Meanwhile, the central bank formally joined in late 2020 with other major central banks in efforts to shore up the financial system against climate-related disruptions. Some in Congress have seen the Fed’s climate work as a sign of a politicized central bank. That said, the Fed has not ruled out thinking about how climate disruptions affect the full measure of the economy.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, there's, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester, John Williams, ” Williams, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, “, New York Fed, Fed, Cleveland Fed, Queens College, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Puerto Rico, Congress

After 525 basis points of interest rate hikes, financial conditions are now the tightest in a year, and biting. JPMorgan strategists estimate that the impact on GDP from tightening financial conditions takes anywhere from one to two years to be felt. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsThe renewed weakness of U.S. regional bank shares is one of them. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBNP Paribas analysts reckon the impact on GDP growth from tighter financial conditions recently equates to a 40 basis point rate hike. Around a third of the bank's financial conditions index rise since April is from higher bond yields.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Torsten Slok, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Fed, Treasury, Wall, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, October's

☆ 'Incredible alpha opportunities' in the year ahead despite headwinds, says Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

When asked about the risk outlook, Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz, former president of Goldman Sachs, advised caution but remained positive about alpha opportunities. "But I think the year ahead will certainly present incredible alpha opportunities. It doesn't mean there won't be great alpha opportunities." Schwartz also highlighted the need to stay liquid in times of war to be best prepared for uncertainty. "I think certain geopolitical risk, particularly war — again the tragedy of war and the loss of life — I think those are very difficult to price in the near term.

Persons: Harvey Schwartz, Goldman Sachs, Schwartz, — Organizations: Investment, Bankers, Carlyle Group, Carlyle, International Monetary Fund Locations: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

☆ Australia's surprisingly strong Q3 inflation raises odds of Nov rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Markets are wagering both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are done with hiking. HAWKISH MESSAGINGThe recent messaging from the central bank has been on the hawkish side. The biggest contributors to the third quarter inflation were fuel, rents, and electricity. Fuel prices rose 7.2% from a year ago, reversing two quarters of price falls, with the conflict in the Middle East potentially set to further stoke inflationary pressures. The central bank forecast in August that inflation was only projected to return to the top of the bank's target band of 2-3% in late 2025.

Persons: David Gray, Worryingly, Adam Boyton, Gareth Aird, Michele Bullock, Woolworths WOW.AX, Taylor Nugent, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Wednesday, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ANZ, Economics, CBA, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Woolworths, National Australia Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ Economists fear major disruption if the Israel-Hamas conflict is not contained
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

ReutersAny possible escalation of the Israel-Hamas war poses a major risk to the global economy, driving up energy prices and disrupting key trade routes, economists have warned. Israel's subsequent bombardment of Gaza in a bid to eliminate Hamas has increased the risk of a spillover to the wider Middle East region. The events in recent days have deepened the greatest fear among economists, that the conflict engulfs the region and begins to pose a long-term threat to global energy and trade infrastructure. Back then oil prices gained 30% in a matter of two weeks before settling at around 15% above pre-war levels," said J. Safra Sarasin Equity Strategist Wolf von Rotberg. "You choke off those points and you create major disruption not just to oil prices, but the whole supply chain of the world for energy and other goods as well."

Persons: Israel's, Isaac Herzog, Pat Thaker, Thaker, Brent, J . Safra Sarasin, J, Wolf von Rotberg, Elijah Oliveros, Rosen, Oliveros, Paul Gruenwald, Gruenwald Organizations: Hamas, Reuters, Palestinian, Lebanese, Hezbollah, Economist Intelligence Unit, CNBC, Fed, ECB, West Texas, J ., Safra Sarasin Equity Locations: Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, Lebanon, East, Africa, Saudi, Ukraine, Europe, Iran, Tehran, Saudi Arabia, Suez, Persian, Hormuz, U.S, Chile, Turkey, Thailand, Philippines, India, Egypt

☆ Bank SEB's Q3 operating profit jumps 42%, beats expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The Nordic bank SEB group logo is seen outside a branch in central Stockholm, Sweden, July 18, 2023. REUTERS/Tom Little Acquire Licensing RightsSTOCKHOLM, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Swedish bank SEB (SEBa.ST) reported a 42% rise in third-quarter operating profit on Wednesday, topping market expectations, but said the positive effect from higher interest rates had come down compared to previous quarters. Sweden's biggest corporate bank said operating profit was 13.0 billion crowns ($1.17 billion) against a year-ago 9.12 billion, beating a mean forecast of 11.0 billion in an LSEG poll of analysts. Banks have seen their income boosted by higher interest rates as central banks scrambled to bring down stubbornly high inflation. The bank, whose main rivals include Handelsbanken, Swedbank and Nordea, said its net interest income rose to 12.3 billion crowns from 7.7 billion crowns, above the 12.0 billion crowns expected by analysts.

Persons: Tom Little, SEBa.ST, Banks, SEB, Johan Ahlander, Anna Ringstrom, Eileen Soreng Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Thomson Locations: Stockholm, Sweden, Rights STOCKHOLM, Swedish

☆ BoE likely to keep high rates on hold even as signs of slowdown mount
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The last Monetary Policy Committee meeting in September resulted in five members voting to pause, just outnumbering the four who sought another increase. So far, investors are not challenging the BoE's message that interest rates will stay high for a considerable period. BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill likened the outlook for monetary policy to the lofty, flat and long profile of Table Mountain during a visit to South Africa in late August. But economists expected little change in the BoE's previous forecasts that inflation will fall to 2% in two years' time. "Recent geopolitical events will probably induce a modicum of monetary policy caution, reinforcing the likelihood of unaltered policy settings," analysts at NatWest Markets said.

Persons: Hollie Adams, BoE, Andrew Bailey, James Smith, Smith, BOE, Huw Pill, Pill, Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Price, William Schomberg, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Reuters, ING, Investors, U.S . Federal, Monetary Fund, NatWest Markets, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, South Africa

☆ Wall Street warning: Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, Larry Fink issue grim outlooks for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, David Solomon, Larry Fink, and Steve Schwarzman all shared their views. They tackled topics such as inflation, recession, the Israel-Hamas war, and commercial real estate. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio all shared their views. They touched on everything from the Israel-Hamas conflict and pressures on commercial real estate to inflation, interest rates, fiscal and monetary policies, and the risk of recession. David SolomonThe Goldman Sachs chief recalled the boom in mergers and acquisitions coming out of the pandemic, as massive amounts of fiscal stimulus and rock-bottom interest rates fueled "extreme confidence."

Persons: Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, David Solomon, Larry Fink, Steve Schwarzman, —, Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Dalio, Dimon, Fayez Nureldine, David Solomon The Goldman Sachs, that's, Solomon, Fink, aren't, he's, we'll, Schwarzman Organizations: Service, Future Investment Initiative, Tuesday, JPMorgan, BlackRock, Bridgewater Associates, Getty Locations: Saudi Arabia, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, Riyadh, AFP

☆ Jamie Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday warned about the dangers of locking in an outlook about the economy, particularly considering the poor recent track record of central banks like the Federal Reserve. "I want to point out the central banks 18 months ago were 100% dead wrong," he added. Dimon criticized "this omnipotent feeling that central banks and governments can manage through all this stuff. In other recent warnings, Dimon warned of a potential scenario in which the fed funds rate could eclipse 7%. "Whether the whole curve goes up 100 basis points, I would be prepared for it," he added.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, I've, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, Future Investment Locations: U.S, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Oct 25 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Upbeat U.S. economic data often fuels Fed rate hike expectations, dragging stocks and other asset markets lower. In Asia on Wednesday, South Korea's LG Display is expected to show a fall in quarterly revenue when it reports results. On the economic data front, annual consumer inflation in Australia is expected to slow to 5.3% in the third quarter from 6.0% in the April-June period. The Australian dollar liked what it heard, bucked the global trend of widespread weakness against the U.S. dollar, and goes into the inflation data on the front foot around $0.6360.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Michele Bullock, Lan Foan, Xi Jinping, Josie Kao Organizations: Microsoft, Google, South, LG, Apple, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S ., South Korea LG, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Asia, Australia, China, Beijing, South Korea

☆ Jamie Dimon warns against predicting what's next for the economy - and slams central banks for 'dead wrong' forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon said central banks' outlook from 18 months ago was "100% dead wrong." Dimon is doubtful that central banks and governments can manage the coming turmoil. In a panel at the Future Investment Initiative Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the banker called out governments and central banks, and said some more humility should be in order. "I want to point out the central banks 18 months ago were 100% dead wrong," Dimon added. "Fiscal spending is more than it's ever been in peacetime and there's this omnipotent feeling that central banks and governments can manage through all this stuff," Dimon said.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, —, JPMorgan Chase, I've, Dimon Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Future Investment Initiative, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine

☆ Fed Rate Moves Squeeze a Key U.S. Ally
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Frances Yoon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Currency traders at KEB Hana Bank’s headquarters in Seoul. Photo: Ahn Young-joon/Associated PressSouth Korea’s alliance with the U.S. has strengthened during the Biden presidency. But the country’s economy has fallen victim to the rapid rise in U.S. interest rates, showing how Federal Reserve decisions—and the uncertainty around them—can send ripples around the world. The Fed has embarked on a historic spree of interest-rate rises since early 2022, an attempt to rein in inflation that peaked at 9.1% in the middle of last year. Central banks across the globe have followed these moves, partly out of a desire to protect their currencies, which can suffer as rising Treasury yields encourage international investors to dump overseas assets and buy U.S. bonds.

Persons: Hana Bank’s, Ahn Young Organizations: Associated Press, U.S, Biden, Fed Locations: Seoul

☆ Asia shares slip on Middle East woes, rising yields
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Passersby walk past an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. Bonds were also under pressure as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields crept to within a whisker of 5.0%, pushing borrowing costs up across the globe and testing equity valuations. On Monday, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slipped 0.4% to its lowest in almost a year. Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures added 0.2%, underpinned by hopes a rush of earnings reports this week will provide some support. Oil prices gave back some ground in the absence of any disruption to supplies from the Middle East, at least for now.

Persons: Issei Kato, Bonds, Israel, Bruce Kasman, outperformance, Gold, Brent, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Nikkei, Washington, European Central Bank and Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, FTSE, Nasdaq, Microsoft, IBM, Intel, JPMorgan, Bank of Japan, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, SYDNEY, Gaza, Lebanon, Asia, Pacific

ORLANDO, Florida, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Leveraged funds trading U.S. Treasuries futures have increased their record net short position across the curve, which will do little to soothe growing concerns among regulators about the potential financial stability risks these bets pose. That is significantly larger than the peak combined net short position from 2019 of just over 4 million contracts. That's a whisker from the two-year record net short of 1.558 million contracts in 2019, and a fresh record five-year net short. A short position is essentially a wager an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. But funds play Treasuries futures for other reasons, like relative value trades, and this year, the basis trade.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Miral Organizations: Bank for International, Futures Trading Commission, U.S, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S

NEW YORK (AP) — The yield on the 10-year Treasury has reached 5% for the first time since 2007. Monday morning, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was at 4.96% after hitting 5.02% earlier. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that many other factors could be contributing to the swift rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield most directly means the U.S. government has to pay more to borrow money for 10 years. But because the 10-year yield is the reference point for financial markets, it also quickly filters out into all kinds of loans.

Persons: it's, Jerome Powell, That's Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Fed, Federal, Big Tech, Higher, U.S . Locations: U.S

☆ Rising yields may pressure BOJ to consider raising newly set cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The BOJ remains a global outlier having maintained ultra-loose monetary stimulus even as major central banks elsewhere rapidly raised interest rates to fight rampant inflation. Meanwhile, rising U.S. bond yields are pulling their Japanese counterparts higher, complicating the BOJ's task of keeping local interest rates low. Among ideas that could be discussed would be to raise the ceiling for the 10-year bond yield beyond 1.0%, or steps that water down the BOJ's commitment to defend a set yield level, the sources said. "If the 10-year JGB yield rises to around 0.9%, the BOJ may need to take action," such as by raising the 1% cap, she added. In a Reuters poll in September, most analysts said they expect the BOJ to abandon YCC by the end of 2024.

Persons: Issei Kato, BOJ, YCC, Kazuo Ueda, Naomi Muguruma, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Treasury, Nikkei, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, YCC, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

REUTERS/Issei Kato Acquire Licensing RightsOct 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. September's PMIs showed that manufacturing activity in Japan and Australia shrank and services sector activity grew, although growth in Japan was the slowest this year. The big picture, however, is still dominated by the ebb and flow of the U.S. Treasuries market. And while a broad easing of financial conditions on Monday - lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar - should support emerging market assets, Wall Street's late downward drift will warrant caution. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan and MSCI global emerging market indexes are both down around 13% over the past three months and on Monday both hit their lowest level since Nov. 11 last year.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, bode, Michele Bullock, September's PMIs, Wall, Goldman Sachs, outflows, Goldman, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of Australia, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Korean, Australia, Asia, China, South Korea

A man is reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato Acquire Licensing RightsOct 23 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The ICE BofA Treasuries index fell 1.4% last week, its biggest fall since May, and is at an eight-year low. Perhaps ominously, however, Friday's bond market relief didn't ease the pressure elsewhere - Wall Street's three main indices still closed 0.9%-1.5% lower. According to Goldman Sachs, financial conditions in emerging markets and globally are the tightest in almost a year.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Treasuries, That's, Goldman Sachs, Pan Gongsheng, September's, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, ICE, Traders, Bank of Japan, Australian PMI, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, Asia, China, Australian

☆ Analysis: Time for central bank digital currencies to prove their worth
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-22 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration//File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - A milestone move by the European Central Bank toward launching a digital euro within a few years means the time has come for the newest incarnation of money to prove its worth. A few countries have introduced central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), China is trialling a prototype yuan with 200 million users, India is gearing up for a pilot and some 130 countries representing 98% of the global economy are exploring digital cash. Commercial bankers fret about the costs and possible deposit bleeds as customers could move money into central bank accounts, while developing countries worry that an easily accessible digital dollar, euro or yuan could cause havoc in their systems. DEFINING A GLOBAL STANDARDA key unknown is whether the U.S. Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan will launch retail CBDCs. "The current adoption level of eNaira has been reflective of the early stage of CBDC awareness," the country's central bank said in a written response to questions, adding it had been "consistent" with expectations.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Josh Lipsky, Fabio Panetta, couldn't, Lee Braine, Bo Li, Atlantic Council's Lipsky, Lipsky, Marc Jones, MacDonald Dzirutwe, William Mallard Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, Reuters, Atlantic Council, Facebook, ECB, Barclays, Bank of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, International Monetary Fund, Atlantic, Thomson Locations: China, India, Western, Nigeria, U.S, Canada, Bahamas, London, Lagos

☆ Analysis: Middle East throws central banks yet more unknowns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Now, to complicate matters for a professional caste which prides itself on being data-driven, the Middle East is throwing a new set of real but unquantifiable risks into their equations. Unless the picture changes dramatically in coming days, the European Central Bank, U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are already expected to keep their policy rates on hold in meetings over the next two weeks. ECB rate-setter Yannis Stournaras, the governor of the Greek central bank, argued that Europe had broadly managed to absorb the effects of rising energy costs triggered by the Ukraine war and hoped it could do the same if further shocks emerged. For now, the conflict remains largely confined to Israel and Gaza, something S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a study this week was already "muddying the waters" for central banks. As the Fed's Powell put it: "Our institutional role at the Federal Reserve is to monitor these developments for their economic implications, which remain highly uncertain".

Persons: Jerome Powell, David Westin, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Tetsuya Hiroshima, Fed's Powell, Dan Burns, Balazs Koranyi, Francesco Canepa, Maria Martinez, Leika, Kevin Yao, David Milliken, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Federal, Anchor, Bloomberg, Street, Economic, of New, REUTERS, Bank of England, International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, U.S, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Fed, ECB, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Tokai, Toyota Motor Corp, P Global Market Intelligence, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, Israel, Ukraine, Iran, Hormuz, Europe, United States, Japan, Gaza, Washington, Frankfurt, Berlin, Tokyo, Beijing, London

☆ Falling stocks, climbing mortgage rates: how 5% Treasury yields could roil markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated and mounting U.S. fiscal concerns are among the factors driving the move. Because the $25-trillion Treasury market is considered the bedrock of the global financial system, soaring yields on U.S. government bonds have had wide-ranging effects. "The longer we remain at higher interest rates, the more likely something is to break." Elon Musk warned that high interest rates could sap electric-vehicle demand, which knocked shares of the sector on Thursday. Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. dollar has advanced an average of about 6.4% against its G10 peers since the rise in Treasury yields accelerated in mid-July.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, Powell, Elon Musk, Tesla’s, gravitating, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Reuters, Global Research, Reuters Graphics, ICE, Fed, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Treasuries

☆ Japan's property market shows signs of overheating, central bank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In a heat map of economy sectors which are running hot, the ratio of investment by real estate firms to gross domestic product (GDP) turned "red", a signal that the property market was overheating, the central bank said. "The increase in real estate firms' investment has been accelerated by urban redevelopment projects by major real estate developers," it added. "In some limited commercial areas in central Tokyo, transactions in the higher price range have been increasing," it said, adding that developments in the real estate transaction market "continue to warrant close monitoring". Japanese banks could also face risks from the rising possibility of interest rates remaining high overseas, it added. But credit costs could rise abruptly, particularly for loans to Asia, if overseas interest rates stay higher for longer, it warned.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Banks, Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Asia

☆ Take Five: Another curve ball for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The European Central Bank looks set to sit tight after a string of interest rate hikes, while there's a slew of U.S. earnings and Argentina's presidential election. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the central bank was still "quite some distance" from easing monetary policy. Canada's central bank, meeting on Wednesday, is tipped to leave rates steady as inflation eases. 2 economy, property turmoil threatens China's 5% growth target - even after a consensus-smashing 4.9% quarterly expansion. Milei, surprise victor in the August primary election, has pledged to dollarise the economy and get rid of the central bank.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Rodrigo Campos, Philip Lane, hasn't, Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, Vineet Sachdev, Sumanta Sen, Dhara Ranasinghe, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Hamas, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, General Motors, Merck, United Parcel Service, Investors, International Monetary, Massa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, London, Tokyo, New York, Israel, Palestinian, Russia, Ukraine, China, Beijing, ARGENTINA, Argentina, Pasir Kongkunakornkul

Worries are growing about how much the turmoil could cost the global economy. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, hit a three-week high this on Fridayfears that a military escalation could disrupt already tight supplies. In a speech largely focused on inflation, interest rates and economic growth, Jay Powell, the central bank’s chair, warned on Thursday that “geopolitical tensions are highly elevated and pose important risks to global economic activity.”The Middle East is becoming a wild card for the global economy. That would probably sap growth but might also slow the economy enough to negate the need for an additional interest-rate increase. The measures were announced days after the U.S. imposed tighter restrictions on sales of more advanced semiconductors to China.

Persons: Biden, —, Brent, Jay Powell, Powell, ” Powell, Kamala Harris, Jay Monahan, David Zaslav, Jim Jordan, Patrick McHenry, Jordan, there’s, Fran Drescher, George Clooney, ” Drescher, Sidney Powell, Donald Trump’s Organizations: Gaza, Israel, U.S . Navy, Intel, Siemens, European Commission, Digital Services, PGA, Warner Bros, Hollywood, SAG, Trump Locations: Mideast, Israel, Ukraine, Lebanon, U.S, Iran, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Lisbon, Ohio, Trump . China, Beijing, China

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