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On Wednesday, European shares nudged higher (.STOXX), while a gauge of Asian shares gained 0.35% (.MIAPJ0000PUS) and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei touched its highest in over two weeks (.N225). Spanish inflation rose 2.6% in August, as economists polled by Reuters had expected. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline euro zone inflation rate to have moderated to 5.1% in August from 5.3% in July, still far above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% goal. Euro zone inflation has exceeded the target level for two years. Germany's two-year yield rose 7 bps to 3.099% after regional Germany inflation data.
Persons: Issei Kato, SEB, Elisabet Kopelman, Jerome Powell's, Europe's, Sylvia Ardagna, Ardagna, Germany's, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SEB Group, Fed, Reuters, Bank's, Barclays, ECB, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, Asia, Spain, Germany, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's
China's economy will struggle for at least the next year, TS Lombard strategists said. The research firm estimated China's growth would remain under 5% through 2024. That implies the nation's economy will slip into a "structural hard landing," strategists said. AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, turmoil in China's real estate and stock market helped wipe away recent wealth gains, which initially was thought would help economic growth once China's economy reopened. Other analysts have warned of long-term problems for China's economy, given that the nation is also slammed with high debt levels and an aging population.
Persons: TS Organizations: Service, People's Bank of China Locations: Wall, Silicon, China
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, edged 0.08 lower to 104.08 after hitting its highest since early June on Friday. "It remains unlikely we get a hike from the Fed in September," Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said. With the Fed highlighting the importance of the upcoming U.S. economic data, investors' focus this week will be on reports on payrolls, core inflation and consumer spending. But the single currency traded near an almost 11-week low hit on Friday after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said policy needed to be restrictive. China's yuan steadied against the dollar, buoyed by the Chinese central bank repeatedly setting stronger-than-expected daily-mid-points.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jackson, Jerome Powell, Chris Weston, Weston, Rodrigo Catril, Christine Lagarde, Tommy Wu, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Mark Potter, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Fed, National Australia Bank, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Sterling, London, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, U.S, China, Japan, London, Singapore
TSX set to open flat ahead of data-packed week
  + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019. ET (1105 GMT), after finishing the week flat on Friday. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended higher on Friday, lifted by gains in energy stocks. Investors are also awaiting earnings from major Canadian banks, including Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO) and National Bank of Canada (NA.TO), reporting this week. Wall Street futures edged higher on Monday.
Persons: Chris Helgren, Canada's, Shashwat Chauhan, Shweta Agarwal Organizations: Toronto Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of Canada, Toronto Stock, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova, National Bank of Canada, Wall, Brent, Thomson Locations: Toronto , Ontario, Canada, United States, China, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bengaluru
World shares (.MIWD00000PUS) were up 0.3% in European trading. European stocks, led by technology shares and China-exposed automakers, also rose. But the uncomfortable message from Jackson Hole may mean a protracted higher inflation than market bulls might have hoped, said the note. Figures on European Union inflation this week may also be instrumental in whether the European Central Bank (ECB) decides to hike next month. Oil prices drew some support from the storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico and China support.
Persons: Issei Kato, Florian Ielpo, Jerome Powell, Lombard, Ielpo, Jackson, Christine Lagarde, Ben Broadbent, Kazuo Ueda, Brent, Nell Mackenzie, Amanda Cooper, Stephen Coates, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Nikkei, U.S, REUTERS, Companies, payrolls, China PMI, China, Nasdaq, FTSE, China Evergrande, HK, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Shanghai, Lombard, Traders, Federal, Fed, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, Beijing, Generali, Hollywood, Friday's, Gulf of Mexico
Stocks around the world kicked off a new week on a positive note, with U.S. indexes rising. The stock market's gains were broad-based, with nearly all of the S&P 500's sectors rising and some big tech stocks lagging. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell slightly, recently trading at 4.218%, after settling at 4.239% on Friday. Hawaiian Electric shares leapt after the utility pushed back against claims that its power lines caused the deadly Lahaina wildfire. Chinese indexes swung after the government cut a trading tax and said it will take more steps to revive markets.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Jackson Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, Hawaiian Electric Locations: Jackson Hole, U.S, Shanghai
The Fed may have broken the US housing market, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. That's because interest rate hikes have helped drive up mortgage rates, weighing on both supply and demand. High rates have frozen the housing market over the past year by crimping both supply and demand. AdvertisementAdvertisement"When you go from record-low mortgage rates to levels that we haven't seen for almost 20 years, you've destroyed both demand and supply. That is the way you destroy the housing market," El Erian said.
Persons: Mohamed El, you've, El Erian, We've Organizations: Service, Allianz, CNBC, Mortgage News Daily, US Locations: Wall, Silicon, El
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Monday as investors remained focused on remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that signaled the possibility of more interest rate hikes to tackle inflation. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down at 4.2217%. While Powell said the Fed could be flexible, he said it still has further to go to fight inflation. "Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high," Powell said in prepared remarks. The Treasury is expected to auction three-month and six-month bills as well as two-year and five-year notes.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Willem Sels, Sels, CNBC's, subindexes Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Traders, Federal Reserve, Kansas City, HSBC Private Banking, Wealth, Composite, U.S . Labor Department Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S
At the gathering, a slew of central bankers met to discuss monetary policy and how to address stubbornly high inflation in many major economies. The most closely watched speech of the event came from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The U.S. central bank head said that that inflation remains too high and that the Fed is ready to continue hiking interest rates to tame persistently high prices. While Powell said the Fed could be flexible, he added it still has further to go to fight inflation. "Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high," Powell said in prepared remarks at Jackson Hole.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, CAC, Italian, Kansas City Federal Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S
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Persons: Dow Jones
"The economy is a global economy, right? Yet Fed officials remain puzzled, and somewhat concerned, over conflicting signals in the incoming data. But gross domestic product is still expanding at a pace well above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%. Difficulties in China, meanwhile, may drag down global growth the longer they fester. Its slowdown after a short-lived growth burst earlier this year could pinch Germany's exports and slow Europe's growth, for instance.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann Saphir, JACKSON, Jackson, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Loretta Mester, Mester, Lagarde, Biden, Nathan Sheets, Powell, Gourinchas, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Monetary Fund, Cleveland Fed, Reuters, Citigroup, Consumer, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Brazil, Chile, China, Ukraine
The Bank of England's Deputy Governor, Monetary Policy, Ben Broadbent speaks at a press conference at the Bank of England, London, Britain, May 11, 2023. The BoE said earlier this month that borrowing costs were likely to stay high for some time as it raised rates for the 14th time in a row. Investors expect another increase in the BoE's Bank Rate to 5.5% from its current level of 5.25% on Sept. 21, after the next scheduled meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. Broadbent said the BoE's stance on interest rates would respond to "the evidence on spare capacity, and to indicators of domestic inflation, as and when it comes through." The chair of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell, told the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers on Friday that the Fed may need to interest rates further.
Persons: Ben Broadbent, Henry Nicholls, JACKSON, Broadbent, BoE, Jay Powell, Jackson, William Schomberg, Paul Sandle, Christina Fincher Organizations: of England's, Monetary, Bank of England, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, , Wyoming, United States, Ukraine, BoE's, Russia
ECB rate pause now may be too early: policymaker
  + stars: | 2023-08-26 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming, Aug 26 (Reuters) - It may be too early for the European Central Bank to pause interest rate hikes now as an early stop in the fight against inflation could force the bank to exert even more pain on the economy later, Latvian policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Saturday. The ECB has raised rates at each of its past nine meetings to arrest runaway inflation but policymakers are now contemplating a pause as recession risks loom, inflation slows and wage growth remains moderate. ECB projections currently see inflation returning to its 2% target only in late 2025 and Kazaks argued this was too late. Once rates peak, a plateau should be held for some time and the ECB should only start cutting rates when projections start showing inflation was at risk of coming back below 2%. Markets see a rate cut only in the second half of 2024 and Kazaks said he did not consider this inconsistent with the macroeconomic outlook.
Persons: JACKSON, Martins Kazaks, Kazaks, Balazs Koranyi, Marguerita Choy Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, Industry, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Latvian, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
It is not even certain that the decline in China's U.S. import share represents a true delinking, they said. Yet in the background, the researchers noted that China had "stepped up" its trade and investment activity with Vietnam and Mexico, as well as other countries. "The U.S. could well remain indirectly connected to China through its trade and global value chain links with these third-party countries," they argued. Prices for goods from some countries, moreover, were beginning to rise. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: JACKSON, deglobalization, Laura Alfaro, Davin Chor, Alfaro, Chor, What's, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Biden, Trump, Federal, Harvard Business School, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth, Fed, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, China, Ukraine, freefall, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Vietnam, Mexico
Interest rates in the European Union will need to stay high "as long as necessary" to slow still-high inflation, Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, said Friday. "While progress is being made," she said, "the fight against inflation is not yet won." Lagarde's remarks, at an annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, came against the backdrop of the ECB's efforts to manage a stagnating economy with still-high inflation. The central bank has raised its benchmark rate from minus 0.5% to 3.75% in one year — the fastest such pace since the euro was launched in 1999. "If we also face shocks that are larger and more common — like energy and geopolitical shocks — we could see firms passing on cost increases more consistently," Lagarde said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, European Union Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, European, Ukraine
No appetite at Fed, ECB for changing inflation goal
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. "Two percent is and will remain our inflation target," Powell said in his keynote address. After aggressive interest rate increases by the Fed and the ECB, among others, inflation has fallen but has not yet reached the 2% goal in either Europe or the United States. Increasing the target could undermine efforts to anchor inflation expectations, she said, and anchored expectations are key to keeping inflation constrained. Reporting by Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider and Balazs Koryani; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, JACKSON, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lagarde, Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Balazs Koryani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Fed, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Europe, United States
Treasury trading nearly ground to a halt, imperiling the functioning of global financial markets, until the Fed jumped in to buy hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds that helped to free up space on dealer balance sheets. "Backstopping the liquidity of this market with transparent official-sector purchase programs will further buttress market resilience." Future bouts of Treasury market illiquidity could also be made less likely with broader use of central clearing, Duffie wrote, as well as changing the way regulators assess bank capital levels. Financial authorities made such a change temporarily after March 2020, but allowed the so-called Supplementary Leverage Ratio exemption to sunset a year later. Other changes could include technical changes to market function to encourage direct buying and selling without dealer intermediation, Duffie wrote.
Persons: JACKSON, Darrell Duffie, Duffie, intermediation, Ann Saphir, Chizu Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Stanford University, Kansas City, Fed, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Indexes up: Dow 0.24%, S&P 0.38%, Nasdaq 0.63%Aug 25 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks extended gains on Friday after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium were perceived to be less hawkish than expected. The Fed may need to raise interest rates further to ensure inflation is contained, Powell said at the conference, which is also attended by other top global central bankers. "My hunch is that he is being seen as not as hawkish as had been feared." Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Shristi Achar A; additional reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Powell, Stuart Cole, Amruta Khandekar, Bansari Mayur, Shinjini Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, CPI, Equiti, Traders, Dow Jones, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, London
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Jerome Powell to speak at 10:05 a.m. Powell is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech at 10:05 a.m. "While Powell is unlikely to be anywhere near as hawkish as he was last year, he won't want to declare victory either." ET, Dow e-minis were up 106 points, or 0.31%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 5 points, or 0.03%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Powell, Michael Hewson, Amruta Khandekar, Shinjini Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Marvell Technology, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, CMC, Fed, Traders, Nvidia, Microsoft, Dow e, Marvell Technology Inc, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Maui
Stocks swoon, dollar firms as Powell speech looms
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Crude oil found its footing around one-month lows, but remained on course for a second weekly decline amid a firmer dollar and simmering China-centred worries about global growth. "However, there is also no real reason for Powell to strike a dovish tone," he added, "and that could mean an ugly end to the week for stocks, while the dollar shines." Against Japan's currency , the dollar edged tentatively back toward last week's nine-month high of 146.545, trading as strong as 146.21. In energy markets, crude prices rose slightly on Friday, but remained on track for weekly declines of between 1.5-2.5%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Kazuo Ueda, Christine Lagarde, Powell, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, Joseph Capurso, Brent, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, People's Bank of, Bank, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Nvidia, Advantest, Fed, Boston Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, Yahoo, U.S, Bank of Japan, CBA, Treasury, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, . U.S, China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Tokyo, Jackson
The U.S. economy has avoided a threatened banking crisis and financial markets have not only aligned with the Federal Reserve's tight-credit policies but of late even helped the process by bidding up market interest rates. "I think Powell’s main effort is going to be explaining to what degree you want to hold (interest rates) higher for longer in the current outlook." Investors in contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark interest rate currently expect the Fed to begin reducing the policy rate next year from the current level set between 5.25% and 5.5%. Fed officials in fact have begun discussing the possibility of rate cuts down the road, at least in the context of steadily falling inflation. If inflation does decline as expected, Fed officials including Powell have suggested rate reductions might be appropriate to maintain a roughly constant inflation-adjusted "real rate."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jim Urquhart, JACKSON, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, who've, isn't, Adam Posen, William English, Donald Kohn, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Kansas, Fed, Northern Trust, Bank of England's, Committee, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Yale School of Management, Brookings Institution, Thomson Locations: Teton, Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Washington
Exclusive: China asks banks to limit some Connect bond outflows
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
[1/2] Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022. "And it could also drive offshore yuan yields higher to support the renminbi." The southbound leg of the two-year-old Bond Connect scheme allows mainland institutional investors to purchase bonds traded in Hong Kong. Several measures have been aimed at raising the cost of shorting the yuan offshore. China's state-owned banks have taken steps to squeeze yuan this week by mopping up cash from the market, other sources told Reuters earlier this week.
Persons: Florence Lo, Ken Cheung, Vidya Ranganathan, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Bond, People's Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, Reuters, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, Hong Kong, China, outflows, Beijing
The timing is ripe as African countries grapple with sluggish growth, food insecurity and debt distress. CNN: According to IMF reports, the levels of inflation and public debt we’re seeing in Africa have not been seen in many decades. Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, speaks in Washington, DC, in April at a meeting of the World Bank and IMF. Georgieva: I expect to see a very strong focus on the African continent. We did a paper on how the continental free trade agreement can benefit Africa if these trade and non-trade barriers are eliminated and the results are phenomenal: trade within Africa can increase by 53%, trade between Africa and the rest of the world by 15%, and real income per capita could grow by 10%.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva, CNN’s Eleni Giokos, Kevin Dietsch, we’re, they’re Organizations: CNN, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Bank, IMF Locations: Africa, Marrakech, Morocco, Washington , DC
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. While inflation has come down from its peak, Powell said, it still remains high and policymakers would "proceed carefully" in deciding further interest rate moves. "But he also threatened to drop the hammer again if the economy and job market run too hot. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and seven new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 12 new highs and 149 new low. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Shristi Achar A; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Nordstrom, Jerome Powell's, Powell, David Russell, advancers, Amruta Khandekar, Shinjini Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Marvell Technology, Dow, Nasdaq, Jackson, Treasury, Fed, Dow Jones, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Maui
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Crude oil found its footing around one-month lows, but remained on course for a second weekly decline amid a firmer dollar and simmering China-centered worries about global growth. "However, there is also no real reason for Powell to strike a dovish tone," he added, "and that could mean an ugly end to the week for stocks, while the dollar shines." Against Japan's currency , the dollar edged back toward last week's nine-month high of 146.545, last trading at 146.15. The Chinese yuan traded slightly weaker in offshore markets , slipping 0.07% to 7.2866 per dollar.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Kazuo Ueda, Christine Lagarde, Powell, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Patrick Harker, Brent, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, People's Bank of, Bank, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Nvidia, Advantest, Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, U.S, Treasury, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, . U.S, China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Tokyo
Total: 25