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☆ 'This is typical late cycle behavior': New York Life Investments warns a recession is still barreling toward the US economy despite strong jobs data — threatening to sink stocks by 15-20%
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-10 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Historically, a median pullback in earnings would mean a 15-20% drop in the S&P 500. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on June 2 that the US labor market added 339,000 jobs in May — more than economists had expected. Historically, the Fed tightening cycle takes 18 – 24 months to impact the labor market." Madison Hoff/InsiderHistory shows a recession would mean a rough ride ahead for the stock market, Goodwin said. The median S&P 500 price target among major Wall Street strategists is 4,000, which is 7% lower than current levels.

Persons: Lauren Goodwin, Goodwin, Madison Hoff, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Piper Sandler, it's, Kantrowitz, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, —, Louis Organizations: York Life Investments, Labor Statistics, New York Life Investments, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St

☆ A New York supermarket billionaire said he wants to buy CNN and that he just wants $1 per year for it
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Nidhi Pandurangi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

New York supermarket billionaire John Catsimatidis said he wants to buy CNN, per the New York Post. "I'd go run the place tomorrow morning, and all I'd want is $1 per year and a piece of the upside," he said. Catsimatidis — an outspoken Trump supporter — has a net worth of $4.1 billion, per Forbes. Just two days after embattled CNN CEO Chris Licht stepped down from his role in the aftermath of a brutal profile of his leadership, a New York supermarket billionaire said he wants to buy CNN from its parent Warner Bros. That is the craziest thing in the world," Catsimatidis — an outspoken Trump supporter — told 77 WABC.

Persons: John Catsimatidis, Catsimatidis, Trump, —, Chris Licht, Sid Rosenberg, Catsimatidis —, Forbes —, Donald Trump's, Donald Trump Organizations: CNN, New York, Forbes, Morning, Warner Bros ., WABC, Wall Street Journal, Warner Bros Locations: York, New York, New York City

☆ These 5 home upgrades are the secrets to a better sale price
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Zoe Rosenberg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

It's a seller's real-estate market, meaning the demand for homes exceeds supply. Homesellers can fetch more at closing if their property has a few key upgrades that buyers want. A refreshed kitchen and primary bathroom can help boost the sale price, agents said. It's a seller's real-estate market. The latter is a truth that's existed for a while, despite the predictions of a real-estate market crash or impending comedown of home prices.

Persons: —, Jen Patchen, Opendoor Organizations: Service

☆ Former Florida Deputy Goes on Trial for Not Confronting Parkland Gunman
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Jane Musgrave | Matthew Rosenberg | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The deputy, Scot Peterson, served as the school resource officer at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School at the time of the shootings in 2018. For not confronting the gunman, he is facing 10 charges, including seven counts of child neglect — a rare prosecution of a law enforcement officer involved in the response to a mass shooting. In opening statements, the prosecution repeatedly noted that after arriving at the scene on the afternoon of Feb. 14, Mr. Peterson stayed in a stairway of an adjacent school building while the shootings took place in Building 1200. “The defendant will never leave that alcove while the shooter is in that building,” said Steven Klinger, an assistant state attorney in Broward County. “In fact, he doesn’t leave it for 30 or 40 minutes when everything is finished.”

Persons: Scot Peterson, Marjory Stoneman, Peterson, “, ”, Steven Klinger Organizations: Wednesday, Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School Locations: Parkland, Fla, Broward County, “

☆ See inside Wave House, the legendary Malibu beach home once owned by Rod Stewart that just listed for $49.5 million
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Zoe Rosenberg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A house that juts out over Malibu's coveted beach hit the market for the first time in 36 years. Rod Stewart bought it in the 1970s and sold it to record executive Mo Ostin in 1987. The house was designed to look like a set of cresting waves by California architect Harry Gesner. The Coopers were friends with California architect Harry Gesner, and commissioned Gesner to design a house for their family that encapsulated their affinity for the outdoors. The estate of Mo Ostin, the home's most recent owner and onetime record executive who's known for signing Jimi Hendrix and The Kinks, listed the property in early June for $49.5 million.

Persons: Rod Stewart, Mo Ostin, Harry Gesner, —, Gerry Cooper, Gesner, Glenn Cooper's, Cooper, Lisa Germany, Jimi Hendrix Organizations: Service, Glenn, Coopers, Malibu Colony Locations: California, Malibu, Mo

☆ Billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach dials up his warning of a US recession, pointing to signs of falling demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

"Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach warned that a US recession is imminent, pointing to signs of weakening demand. "It's pretty clear that we have the look of soon to be at the front end of a recession," the billionaire investor said. Gundlach has consistently rang the alarm on an oncoming downturn as the economy faces a raft of headwinds. "It's pretty clear that we have the look of soon to be at the front end of a recession," Gundlach said. This is not the first time Gundlach, often called "Bond King" for his success in fixed-income investing, has warned of a oncoming US recession.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, —, David Rosenberg, that's Organizations: Service, Privacy, DoubleLine, CNBC, Deutsche Bank, Institute of Supply Management, Federal Reserve

☆ A hunter paid $100,000 for 4 old grain bins in the middle of nowhere, then transformed them into a secret home. See inside.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Zoe Rosenberg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

An avid hunter converted four unassuming grain bins into a fully automated smart home. The house, which sits on 386 remote acres in rural Washington, is on the market for $1.6 million. Realtor Anna Van Diest said it would be "heaven" for a doomsday prepper because of its privacy. Loading Something is loading. The property hit the market in late April asking $1.6 million.

Persons: Anna Van Diest, — Organizations: Service Locations: Washington

☆ Stocks are up big this year. But top Wall Street strategists are warning that trouble is brewing under the surface of the market — threatening to sink it.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Six months into 2023, the S&P 500 is having an impressive year, returning more than 11% so far since January. Only 44% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, according to LPL Financial. Technology and consumer are the only sectors up on the year, and even they are exhibiting narrow breadth," he said. Bank of AmericaOf course, market breadth could improve if the fundamental economic outlook improves along with investor sentiment. If the labor market stays sturdy, a stock market rally could become more sustainable.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Mike Wilson, Here's David Rosenberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Adam Turnquist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, LPL, Savita Subramanian Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, North, UBS, NYSE, Technology, of America's Locations: North American, China

☆ Parents in a town in Ireland came together to voluntarily ban smartphones for kids as old as 13
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( Zoe Rosenberg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Parents in Greystones, Ireland, have implemented a smartphone ban for primary school-aged kids. The hope is that the ban will help prolong childhood by lessening the anxiety and exposure to adult materials that smartphone usage often eggs on. It makes it so much easier to say no," Laura Bourne, whose child is in primary school, told The Guardian. The impacts of smartphone usage on kids is becoming an increasing concern as ongoing studies seek to analyze any lasting effects on the brain. Meanwhile, a town in India has banned smartphone usage for all under the age of 18, according to the Times of India.

Persons: Laura Bourne, Rachel Harper, Stephen Donnelly, — Organizations: Guardian, Irish Times, National Institutes of Health, Times Locations: Greystones, Ireland, Dublin, India, Times of India

☆ U.N. Body Condemns Torture of Guantánamo Prisoner Awaiting Capital Trial
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( Carol Rosenberg | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Why It Matters: Criticism of Guantánamo Bay is mounting, again. The report could be presented to a sentencing jury of U.S. military officers in Mr. Nashiri’s case. In October 2021, a military jury in the case of another Guantánamo prisoner who was tortured by the C.I.A. Mr. Nashiri’s lawyers describe him as a torture survivor who suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and other conditions attributed to untreated physical, psychological and sexual abuse. Mr. Nashiri has more hearings this month focused on what evidence can be used at his eventual capital trial.

Persons: Biden, Cole, Abd al Rahim, Janet Hamlin, Nashiri, Katie Carmon Organizations: International Committee, Pentagon, Associated Press Locations: Guantánamo, America, U.S, Aden Harbor, United States

☆ Why running for president has a lot of upsides, even for the candidates who lose
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( Kimberly Leonard | Warren Rojas | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Often, candidates can even get the book deals before they run for president, especially if there's a lot of buzz around them. CNN host and debate moderator Wolf Blitzer stands in front of the Republican presidential candidates in 2016. outlook has taken hold among both Republican and Democratic presidential candidates. Numerous presidents were once failed presidential candidates, including Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, George H.W. "The only way to learn how to run for president," Sullivan said, "is to run for president."

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Sen, Tim Scott of, Asa Hutchinson, Vivek Ramaswamy, Larry Elder, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Doug Burgum, It's, Marco Rubio's, Terry Sullivan, Sullivan, who've, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Kent Nishimura, aren't, Kamala Harris of, Joe Biden, Stacy Rosenberg, Haley, Glenn Youngkin —, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, J, Miles Coleman, Ball, Mike Huckabee, Spencer Platt, Rosenberg, Doug Heye, Trump Adam Kinzinger hasn't, Archie Bunker, Trump, Hutchinson, Sanders, Michael Benet of, Biden, Heye, Rubio, John Hickenlooper, Hickenlooper, Wolf Blitzer, David J, Phillip, Hillary Clinton, Scott, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, he's, Coleman, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, George H.W, Bush — Organizations: Service, GOP, Florida Gov, Arkansas Gov, New, New Jersey Gov, North Dakota Gov, White, Trump, Transportation, Los Angeles Times, Getty, Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College of Information Systems, Public, Virginia Gov, Publishers, Macmillan Publishing, Senators, University of Virginia Center for Politics, Former Arkansas Gov, Fox News, Netflix, Republican, Democratic, Child Tax, Florida Republican, Capitol, CNN, Georgia Gov Locations: Florida, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Arkansas, New Jersey, Millenial, South Bend , Indiana, Kamala Harris of California, Virginia, Iowa, California, Illinois, United States, Michael Benet of Colorado, Colorado, New Hampshire

☆ Home buyers are facing the least affordable market on record
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Joe Raedle / Getty ImagesEdward Seiler is the associate vice president for housing economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association. Phil Rosen: The MBA's Purchase Applications Payment Index just hit a new high in April. For new home buyers, this is the worst situation since the end of the Great Recession. Current homeowners that were lucky enough to get a 2.75% interest rate in 2022 are in a great position, but for new buyers looking to buy a first home, or those looking to move to another home, it's a very daunting proposition. In his view, monthly payments for first-time buyers are up roughly one-third compared to last year — and that's going to keep buyers on the sidelines and weigh on demand.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen —, Joe Raedle, Edward Seiler, Phil Rosen, Jen, Hsun Huang, Huang, Kim Kulish, Gregg Fisher, he's, Jensen Huang, It's, There's, Evercore's Mark Mahaney, Meta, shouldn't, David Rosenberg, who's, Larry Pitkowsky, Max Adams Organizations: Mortgage, Association, Twitter, Nvidia Corp, GPU Technology, Nvidia, Treasury Department, Fed, Tech Locations: San Jose , California, New York

☆ Top economist David Rosenberg says the US economy is a 'dead man walking' – and warns of a 'hard landing' ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

This economy is a dead man walking," the top economist tweeted. The Rosenberg Research chief said the US was headed for a "hard landing" later this year. This economy is a dead man walking," the Rosenberg Research chief said in a tweet on Thursday that also linked to an interview he gave to Wealthion. "You look at the United States and it seems to me that we're still making this transition from expansion to recession," Rosenberg said. That strengthened the case for a global recession, Rosenberg added.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, we're Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Service, CNBC, Federal Reserve Locations: United States

☆ A family makes over $100,000 tax-free renting out their home to billionaires for one week in April. Welcome to the Masters housing frenzy.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Zoe Rosenberg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Masters Golf Tournament doubles the population of Augusta, Georgia, for one week every April. "There's not a lot of homes in this area that look like ours and rent for Masters," Hayley Mack told the outlet. We obviously get a very big number for Masters week." On a normal week, the home rents for about $2,500, but during the Masters, that sum swells to about $30,000. "The area is just pandemonium," Williams told Golf Digest.

Persons: —, Mack, Hayley Mack, Justin Timberlake, Mack wouldn't, Ralph Lauren Polo, Tipton Sholes, Tipton, Kathie Williams, Williams, She's, Sholes, Elizabeth Thacker, NJ.com, Herman Organizations: Service, Golf, Ralph Lauren Polo Bar, Buffalo Wild Wings, Tipton, Masters, Augusta National, Hilton Head, Golf Digest, Wall Street Journal Locations: Augusta , Georgia, France, Augusta, Italy, Hawaii

☆ US home prices just jumped for the second-straight month, suggesting the housing downturn could be over. Here are the 6 cities where prices are rising the fastest.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In the 20-city version of the index, all 20 of the cities saw home prices rise month-over-month. "That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months." "A shortage of listings, plentiful jobs, and strong wage growth are largely offsetting the headwind to housing from high mortgage rates," Adams told Insider. Their reasons include high mortgage rates, historically low affordability, and a potential recession. Below, we've listed in descending order the six cities in the Case-Shiller 20-city index that posted month-over-month growth of at least 2%.

Persons: Craig J, Lazzara, Bill Adams, Adams, Suisse's Ray Farris, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Ian Shepherdson, American Enterprise Institute's Desmond Lachman, Skylar Olsen Organizations: Home, NSA, Redfin, Comerica Bank, American Enterprise Locations: Denver, Detroit, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Minneapolis, West Coast, Miami , Florida, Tampa , Florida, Charlotte, North Carolina

[1/2] Former U.S. President Donald Trump visits an unfinished section of the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border in Pharr, Texas, June 30, 2021. While president in 2018, Trump said he planned to issue an executive order to limit birthright citizenship, but never followed through. Many legal scholars at the time were skeptical that Trump could use executive authority to roll back the right. Trump noted that many countries restrict birthright citizenship for non-citizens. As president, Trump pursued hardline policies toward immigration and took steps toward building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border that he had promised as a candidate in 2016.

Persons: Donald Trump, Callaghan O'Hare, Trump, Joe Biden, Ted Hesson, Will Dunham, Mica Rosenberg Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Callaghan O'Hare WASHINGTON, Republican, Twitter, Trump, Democrat, Thomson Locations: U.S, Mexico, Pharr , Texas, United States, Southern, American, Washington

☆ Asian stocks dip as investors question consequences of US debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Scott Murdoch | Thomson Reuters | Scott Murdoch Has Been A Journalist For More Than Two Decades Working For Thomson Reuters | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The package still has to be approved by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and Democratic-controlled Senate before the debt limit is reached, likely by next Monday. The bond market is implying there is an extreme 70% probability on a U.S. recession in the next year. Australian shares (.AXJO) were down 0.11% while the Nikkei stock index (.N225) rose 0.36%, after the Japanese benchmark hit a 33-year high on optimism over the U.S debt deal and a weaker yen, which helps the country's exporters. Benchmark 10-year yields dropped 6 basis points during Asian trade to 3.7616% while thirty-year yields fell 6.3 bps to 3.9134%. With the debt deal heading to Congress for approval, JB Were analysts said there could be up to $600 billion worth of bill issuance in the next six to eight weeks.

In Asian trade, longer-dated U.S. Treasuries rallied on Tuesday as bond traders welcomed the deal to suspend Washington's borrowing limit. "There's still a huge disconnect between bond markets and equities. The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programmes. While U.S cash markets were closed on Monday, S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.32%, reflecting the positive reaction to the debt deal. With the debt deal heading to Congress for approval, JB Were analysts said there could be up to $600 billion worth of bill issuance in the next six to eight weeks.

☆ At Guantánamo’s Court Like No Other, Progress Is Frustrated by State Secrets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Carol Rosenberg | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

More than 20 years have elapsed since the attacks in Bali and Jakarta killed more than 200 people, seven of them Americans. The three men have been in U.S. custody for nearly two decades, starting in C.I.A. But the lawyers and judge are still trying to figure out what portions of the proceedings are supposed to be secret. Secrecy permeates the proceedings like no other American court. It is enough time for prosecutors to signal to a court security officer, who is schooled in C.I.A.

☆ Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI race. Its stock isn't the only reason why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Last week I asked you all a question in the newsletter — Do you own Nvidia stock? One of you even told me you first bought the stock when Nvidia was $16(!) Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI arms race so far. A secretive hedge fund has likely notched a $5 billion gain on Nvidia stock this year. Shares of the company hovered near their biggest single-day spike ever, and the chipmaker credited AI for its upbeat quarterly outlook.

☆ 'It's not a bubble yet': Wharton's Jeremy Siegel predicts Big Tech boom fueled by A.I.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Sheila Chiang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wharton professor and renowned economist Jeremy Siegel is bullish on a Big Tech boom fueled by artificial intelligence despite concerns of a bubble. He noted that he has been getting questions around whether it would lead to a repeat of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s. Economist David Rosenberg, known for his contrarian views, had predicted that the current AI boom could collapse like late 1990s dot-com stocks. The dotcom bubble burst when capital dried up after a massive adoption of the internet and a proliferation of available venture capital into internet-based companies, especially startups that had no track record of success. "First, there was excitement about AI and Nvidia ratified that excitement with blowout earnings.

☆ Five months in with no deal in sight, Israel's judicial protests endure
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Rami Amichay | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

For five months now, tens of thousands of Israelis have taken to the street every week to protest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed judicial overhaul that would give politicians greater sway over selecting judges. Critics see a threat to independence of the courts by the prime minister, who is on trial on graft charges he denies. Eisenkot, in an interview with Israel's Channel 12, called for the proposed legislation to be frozen for a year. Before the sun set on Saturday, ending the Jewish Sabbath, crowds once again gathered in Tel Aviv and other cities across Israel. Mira Marcus-Kalish, a university researcher, said she no longer keeps track of how many protests she attended.

☆ A debt-ceiling deal may be close but the crisis likely isn't solved for good. Here's what would happen if the US actually defaulted on its debt.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

So the Treasury market remains intact in this scenario? JL: The broader US economy will suffer, the stock market will suffer, there will be higher unemployment. So just because the Treasury market ends up doing fine does not mean good news for the US economy. If you think the stock market isn't signaling there's a recession looming, David Rosenberg says otherwise. The AI hype gripping the stock market will resemble a mini dot-com bubble, according to UBS's Art Cashin.

☆ Famed economist David Rosenberg says home prices are set to fall further as buyers retreat to the sidelines and a hawkish Fed means stubbornly high mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

With mortgage rates unlikely to budge and incomes unlikely to grow, prices are due to drop. Housing affordability is calculated by accounting for three variables: home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics who said in the 2005 that a housing downturn would spark a recession, made the same argument in recent weeks. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but applications are still falling. This would send interest rates — and therefore mortgage rates, which trade closely with Treasury rates — higher, further hurting demand and affordability, Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi recently told Fortune.

☆ As China and the U.S. redefine geopolitics, Europe faces a win-win situation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A member of the Peoples Armed Police stands guard in front of the flag of the European Union at the European Delegation in Beijing, China. As the United States looks at disengaging from China, Europe could soon find itself in a sweet spot. "The U.S.' hawkish policy stance towards China means that China needs to improve relations with Europe to mitigate the impact of export controls. Therefore, China has an incentive to work hard on improving EU relations," Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Institute, told CNBC via email. "Viewed from China, the EU is the most important high-income market that it still has largely unfettered access to.

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