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With a wry nod to the weekend coronation of King Charles, Goldman Sachs' currency team labelled an upgrade of its sterling recommendation from neutral to 'Long (live) Sterling' - nudging a 3-month forecast for sterling 3% stronger to 0.86 per euro. "Headwinds on sterling in 2022 - mostly natural gas prices and the relative stance of BoE policy - have turned to tailwinds." Economic surprise indexes compiled by Citi show incoming UK readouts more positive relative to expectations than at any time since October 2020. But the FTSE 250 is mostly holding its own so far in 2023 as they have both advanced 3%-4%. UK Economic Surprises surge vs rest of the westG3 Terminal RatesFTSE100 vs FTSE250The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Morning Bid: Volatile news, not markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

While the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise interest rates again on Wednesday, the move could be its last. So in a holiday-strewn month around the world, the VIX (.VIX) - Wall St's so-called 'fear gauge' of the implied stock market volatility for the month ahead - hit its lowest level on Monday since November 2021. Even though it ticked back up a bit above 16 overnight, it remains three full points below its 33-year historical average. For macro markets, the Fed decision is complicated by the debt ceiling and banking backdrop. March job openings numbers later on Tuesday will give an indication of just how tight the labor market remains.

If it is just a lagged statistical quirk, then the huge disparity in March inflation rates - of some 3-5 percentage points with western peers - should narrow sharply by yearend. With an election due next year, that may prove a big factor in any re-convergence of inflation rates if the cost of that is a much deeper economic downturn that rest. The question about Britain as an inflation outlier re-opens the age-old issue about just how that should be priced into sterling. For much of the past 10 years, G7 inflation rates were largely locked together in either their subdued pre-pandemic state or during the wild price spikes since. If UK inflation turns "idiosyncratic" among its peers during the much-vaunted normalization, then currency markets may need to rethink fundamental long-term assumptions about purchasing power, Gallo reckons.

☆ Morning Bid: Global pulse picks up, rates creep higher again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith investors largely assuming recession ahead, an accelerating global economic pulse challenges the narrative and is seeing interest rates tick back higher again as the March banking wobble subsides. With March starts and permits numbers out later, there was also signs of a troughing in the U.S. housing market. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April as a dearth of previously owned homes and falling mortgage rates boosted demand. Wall St futures were higher again on Tuesday, with European bourses and most Asia indices advancing too. With euro zone and UK rate expectations pushing higher too, the dollar slipped back again against the euro and sterling .

Analyst Samik Chatterjee upgraded HP shares to overweight from neutral. "We are looking to turn a corner in relation to the headwinds that have plagued the PC end-market," Chatterjee wrote in a note Monday. He added that structural margin improvement in the printer segment should help HPQ offset some of the downward pressures from easing supply. The analyst admitted that HP still faces long-term challenges in its printer segment. Shares have jumped almost 11% in 2023 amid a rally in tech shares, after slumping almost 29% in 2022.

☆ Marketmind: Dollar skids, China revs
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar's DXY index - the Swiss franc hit its strongest level in more than two years. Taking in all the information, futures markets still show a near 75% chance of another quarter point rate rise to the 5.0-5.25% range in May, but more than 60 basis points of cuts from there to yearend. Two-year Treasury yields were stuck at 4%, with producer price inflation and weekly jobless up next on Thursday's data calendar. European markets were further pepped by reports the European Central Bank was minded to downsize its rate hikes to a quarter point in May after six successive half point moves. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets labor under recession cloud
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. If the tight U.S. labor market is finally unwinding, markets suspect the Federal Reserve's job may well done after all - but at the cost of a looming recession. With Wednesday's private sector jobs reading for March and Friday's national payrolls report ahead, U.S. interest rate markets were jolted again on Tuesday by surprisingly soft data on job vacancies that suggested cooling demand for staff. More decisively, the two-year Treasury yield plunged more than 20 basis points intraday to hover just above 3.8% on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Crude cut complicates Q2
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Brent crude surged on Monday in response, settling about 5% higher than Friday's close. The mild reaction in the rates and bond markets to the OPEC move reflects some of that. Asia and Europe's main stock indices were steady to higher, with S&P500 futures only marginally in the red ahead of Monday's open. The VIX (.VIX) volatility index was a touch higher, though still below 20, and the dollar (.DXY) was up smartly. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index teetered back on the 50 dividing line between expansion and contraction again in March.

☆ Wall Street analysts love these emerging market stocks that all trade in the U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

While U.S. and European investors continue to navigate a banking crisis, high inflation and slower earnings growth, a host of emerging markets stocks beloved by Wall Street analysts are expected to surge higher. Emerging markets equities had an optimistic start to the year as China reopened its economy, and as high inflation showed signs of easing. In 2023, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is up 4.4% through Thursday's open. In fact, some emerging markets stocks that are also listed in the U.S. could be due for huge upside. These names are included in exchange traded funds such as the the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, the Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF or the SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF.

☆ Morning Bid: Bank calm, rates firm, Alibaba steals show
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A semblance of calm has returned to world markets in the final week of the first quarter as the banking storm abates and the spotlight switched to a share-boosting six-way revamp of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba. Investors cheered the surprise move from Alibaba (9988.HK) as a sign Beijing's corporate crackdown may be nearing an end, sending shares of the Jack Ma-founded firm and peers soaring. The surprise move seeks to take advantage of Ermotti's experience rebuilding the bank after the global financial crisis 15 years ago. Broader stock markets were higher across the board, with Wall St futures up almost 1% ahead of the open. Futures markets now show a 50-50 chance of one more Fed rate hike in this cycle in May and half a point of easing by yearend.

Similarly, the U.S. economy and stock markets tend to outperform during booms and draw in overseas investment that lifts demand for dollars. Surely times of great banking and credit stress should boost the greenback? And now we face a bout of severe banking stress alongside stubbornly high inflation that had almost all major central banks raising interest rates again over the past week despite the pretty clear underlying credit stress. JPMorgan's take on the stressed side of the dollar smile last week pointed out that "the underlying macro-financial pathology that necessitates lower yields is the primary determinant of dollar direction". Clearly, the dollar smile is no laughing matter.

☆ Morning Bid: Leaning back to Fed hike, UK inflation jolt
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Two weeks of U.S. and European banking stress and failures leaves the Federal Reserve and other major central banks in the unenviable position of choosing between stabilising financial systems and fighting still historically high inflation. On top of that, the latest quarterly economic projections from Fed policymakers may reveal a big dispersion of views. Beyond the Fed, the dire UK inflation reading seems to have solidified expectations of another BoE rate rise on Thursday and a further move later in the year. If nothing else, it underlines in red ink just how all central banks are totally dependent now on incoming data evidence on what's happening in the real economy. With the U.S. dollar lower across the board ahead of the Fed meeting, sterling hit its highest level since early February.

☆ Morning Bid: Fed halt being priced as bank blaze smoulders
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanAnother weekend of financial firefighting has doused the whole interest rate horizon as the banking blaze smoulders. European bank chiefs were immediately on guard for further contagion and insisted more support was required. And that thinking has crushed the interest rate horizon everywhere. Futures markets now see the first Fed rate cut emerging by midyear. * European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks at the European Parliament in Brussels* Chinese President Xi Jinping meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

☆ Morning Bid: Shock and awe - or mayday?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanMarkets are struggling with whether to be relieved by the sheer scale of Thursday's U.S. bank rescue or be terrified by it. But there was little confidence the rising financial stress would dissipate quickly from here. The discount window jump crashed through a prior record of $112 billion during the banking collapse of 2008. What's more, 75 basis points of Fed rate cuts are still priced between a peak of 5% in May to yearend. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Even though reading anything with certainty from such volatile prices is difficult right now, the runes of the bond market suggest unfolding banking stress will suppress inflation anyway - regardless of further central bank action. "That would be very much in line with what the central banks want." U.S. equivalents were steadier about 2.5%, but five-year "breakeven" inflation rates from the index-linked market fell to 2.3%. To be fair to central bank policymakers, their own early warning systems - such as the ECB's Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress - don't yet show any more pressure on the system than they did during last year's tightening. Armed with Thursday's trial run from the ECB, the Fed and BoE will now have to make that judgment next week.

☆ Morning Bid: Bond blows batter banks as SVB cracks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SVB may be an unusual case in point - given its exposure to both last year's attrition in the tech sector, related startups and bond markets. Major U.S. banks were also hit, with Wells Fargo (WFC.N) down 6%, JPMorgan (JPM.N) down 5.4%, Bank of America (BAC.N) 6% lower and Citigroup (C.N) 4% lower. In currency markets, the dollar held the line on Friday in its lonely easy monetary policy stance. The BOJ held off making changes to its controversial bond yield cap policy, leaving all options open ahead of a leadership transition in April. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

The biggest question in world finance right now is whether the eye-watering rebound in borrowing rates we've seen over the past month is just another overshoot - or the new reality. G7 2-year yields soarFed, ECB and BoE 'terminal rates' riseWorld economy surprising in 2023LOSING THE PLOTSince the middle of last year, futures markets have consistently priced peak Fed rates below where Fed officials themselves were guiding. But for at least six of the past nine months, futures markets priced a lower terminal rate than the central Fed view. Five-year equivalents have risen sharply too, while long-term euro zone inflation swaps are pricing the highest rates in more than a decade. The outcome is "strongly bimodal", they said, and either a recession hits and rates are cut, or it doesn't and rates go to 6.5%.

☆ Morning Bid: Long March ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"If it goes down that road it will come at real costs to China," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN. China said on Monday it sought dialogue and peace for Ukraine despite the U.S. warnings. European stocks and U.S. futures recaptured some ground on Monday but the DXY dollar index briefly hit its highest since Jan. 6. The new U.S. interest rate horizon remains jarring, however. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) on Saturday reported its highest-ever annual operating profit, even as foreign currency losses and rising interest rates contributed to lower earnings in the fourth quarter.

Warren Buffett released his latest annual shareholder letter for Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday. "And I doubt very much that any reader of this letter will have a different experience in the future." And I doubt very much that any reader of this letter will have a different experience in the future." Buffett defends stock buybacks "Gains from value-accretive repurchases, it should be emphasized, benefit all owners – in every respect. • Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: "Warren, think more about it.

☆ Morning Bid: War and PCE
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith world headlines focussed on first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the inflationary consequences that pounded world markets last year still smoulder. Curiously, the initial energy shock from the Ukraine war is already less of a problem than the change in pricing behaviour that it seeded - especially in services still distorted by the pandemic, in corporate margin building and rising wage settlements. But it's the pickup and stickiness in underlying "core" prices, excluding energy and food, that is irking the central banks and the Federal Reserve most of all. Alongside another tight U.S. weekly jobs report, markets got another glimpse of those price pressures on Thursday. And increasingly buoyed by the still intense geopolitical fallout from a year of the war in Ukraine, the dollar pushed higher yet again.

☆ Morning Bid: Too flashy?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. If investors' big concern about the new year is that the U.S. economy is running too hot, then February's flash business surveys from around the world will do little to soothe nerves. U.S. markets return from Monday's Presidents Day holiday and the early readout on this month's factory and service sector activity tops the slate. Aside from Tuesday's business surveys, a reality check for U.S. retailers is due from Walmart and Home Depot's quarterly earnings - holding last month's red-hot retail numbers up to the light. In banking, HSBC (HSBA.L) rose 1.5% - bouncing back from early losses after announcing a surge in its quarterly profit.

☆ Morning Bid: Interminable anxiety
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The about-turn in rates markets in just two weeks has been extraordinary - with Fed funds futures pricing moving from a terminal rate as low as 4.8% to 5.26% on Wednesday. Two-year Treasury yields soared to a 3-month high of 4.64% on Tuesday - where current Fed rates sit - and only gave back a fraction of that on Wednesday. U.S. stocks held up remarkably well on Tuesday - helped by hopes recession fears are easing even as rate speculation intensifies. Sterling slipped as UK inflation fell faster than expected last month, even though the annual inflation rate remains in double digits. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest in three months at 4.65%, now on par with the current Fed policy rate. Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach described the payrolls as a "mood changing" print that's seen markets chase rates higher as if gripped by a sort of reverse FOMO - fear of missing out. Reports circulated last week of swaps and options market activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that bet on market rates touching 6%, or at least hedging against that possibility. If that's true, the battle over the terminal rate may now be overtaken by how long the Fed can keep rates higher to achieve its goals. BofA chart on peak rates from fund manager surveyInflationThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Morning Bid: Wings of a Dove
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. President Joe Biden is expected on Tuesday to name Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard to a top White House economic policy position, replacing National Economic Council Director Brian Deese. Biden confidant Jared Bernstein is expected to replace Cecilia Rouse as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. Brainard was seen as a powerful voice cautioning against over-aggressive Fed policy tightening. U.S. stock futures and world equities were higher on Tuesday, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar were steady to lower. Euro zone economic growth slowed in the last three months of 2022 but avoided a contraction many had predicted for months.

Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs - often a market mover with its big macro calls - is a good example. Last month's Bank of America survey of fund managers around the world still had net 68% expecting recession this year. Rates markets reared up to price Fed rates back above 5% and now expect them higher at yearend than they are today. And yet market volatility gauges have stayed peculiarly serene. Bond market volatility (.MOVE) remains well above its 20-year mean - but it has retreated sharply to two-thirds of last year's peaks.

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