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Yen feels the heat as U.S. Treasury yields climb
  + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The greenback added 0.03% to 151.87 yen , holding near a 34-year high of 151.975 yen hit last month as Japanese officials continued to ramp up their jawboning efforts in a bid to defend the currency. The threat of intervention from Tokyo has kept the dollar from breaching the closely-watched 152 yen level, even as U.S. Treasury yields — which the dollar/yen pair tends to closely track — climb. Sterling tacked on 0.04% to $1.2658, while the euro steadied at $1.0860, holding near a two-week high. Despite a rise in U.S. Treasury yields the dollar has failed to draw meaningful support as traders reassess their expectations of the pace and scale of Federal Reserve rate cuts priced in by markets for later this year. That's come even as the two-year Treasury yield rose to an over four-month high of 4.8010% on Tuesday, while the benchmark 10-year yield likewise held near an over four-month peak and last stood at 4.4278%.
Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Ryota Abe, Sterling, That's, It's, Ray Attrill Organizations: Treasury, Finance, SMBC, New Zealand, National Australia Bank Locations: U.S, Tokyo, United States
Yields may be down from last year's highs, but there is still plenty for income investors to like about investment-grade corporate bonds, according to UBS. The effective yield on the ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Bond Index , which tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate debt, is currently hovering around 5.5%. "This measures IG's return over duration-matched Treasuries, meaning that it's been advantageous to own IG over U.S. government bonds," he added. Inside the investment grade market, UBS prefers the financial sector over nonfinancial issuers, and favors short- and intermediate-term duration. Meanwhile, the spread pickup from A-rated bonds to BBB-rated bonds is historically tight, on average.
Persons: Barry McAlinden, McAlinden, Fitch Organizations: UBS, ICE, Corporate, ., Treasury, Poor's
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Here's a scouting report covering a few relevant themes at play heading into the second quarter. The tenacious tape The behavior of the market itself is perhaps the strongest selling point for a bullish outlook from here. After the S & P has returned 10% or more in a first quarter? The index continued higher the following quarter nine of those 11 and was up the remainder of the year all but once. All but one of the previous episodes saw the market higher nine months later, which in this case would take it through 2024.
Persons: It's, YTD, we've, it's, , Joe Kalish, Ned Davis, Organizations: Federal, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Treasury, Fed, JPMorgan, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Eaton Corp
Chart Master: Rates heading lower?
  + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChart Master: Rates heading lower? Carter Worth, Worth Charting, joins the 'Fast Money' traders with his technical take on treasuries.
Persons: Carter Worth Locations: Carter
Despite enticing alternatives, a fixed-rate mortgage remains the best option for us. With mortgage interest rates still close to 7%, alternative mortgages like adjustable-rate loans and mortgages with shorter maturities are gaining in popularity. AdvertisementThe beauty of the fixed-rate mortgage is that it offers certainty in an uncertain world. Any gain somebody might get with a lower interest rate might be offset by paying more for the house. So, we will be sticking with a fixed-rate mortgage and shopping around for the best rate.
Persons: , Sarah Alvarez, Alvarez, Brandon Bell, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service, William, Mortgage, Business, ARM, Treasury, Street Journal, FG, National Association of Realtors Locations: Austin , Texas
Daniel George worked at Google X and then as a VP at JPMorgan after receiving his Ph.D. in 2018. After finishing my Ph.D. at 24 in 2018, I worked at Google X, leading AI for secret early-stage moonshot projects. When I started working at Google X in Mountain View, California, I made about $270,000 a year. Learn to negotiate payFor my first job at Google X, I was given an offer right after grad school and accepted it immediately. Find a partner who has similar goalsMy wife and I met at Google X.
Persons: Daniel George, , JP Morgan Organizations: Google, JPMorgan, Service, Indian Institute of Technology, University of Illinois, Invest Locations: Kerala, India, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, University of Illinois Urbana, Champaign, Illinois, San Francisco , New York, Seattle, View , California
Daniel George worked at Google X and then as a VP for JP Morgan after receiving his Ph.D. in 2018. After finishing my Ph.D. at 24 in 2018, I worked at Google X, leading AI for secret early-stage moonshot projects. When I started working at Google X in Mountain View, California, I made about $270,000 a year. Learn to negotiate payFor my first job at Google X, I was given an offer right after grad school and accepted it immediately. Find a partner who has similar goalsMy wife and I met at Google X.
Persons: Daniel George, Morgan, Daniel, , JP Morgan Organizations: Google, Service, India Institute of Technology, University of Illinois, Invest, JPMorgan, JP Locations: Kerala, India, India Institute of Technology Bombay, Urbana, Champaign, Illinois, San Francisco , New York, Seattle, View , California
In contrast, monetary policy refers to actions taken by a country's authority on money — the Federal Reserve in the U.S. — to reach a desired economic outcome. Fiscal policy and monetary policy are implemented independently, even as one impacts the other. Expansionary fiscal policy combined with contractionary monetary policy. Contractionary fiscal policy combined with expansionary monetary policy. Now consider a situation in which the Fed is easing its monetary policy while Washington raises taxes, thus reducing after-tax income.
Persons: it's, we've, Apple, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Federal, White House, nab, Federal Reserve, U.S, CNBC, Treasury, Fed, Companies, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, Washington
Other regional bank stocks got slammed: By the end of the day, most saw their stock down by double-digit percentages. Kori Suzuki/ReutersIt’s been exactly one year since that fateful day marked the start of a string of subsequent bank failures. Because of that, “there will be bank failures,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned senators in his semi-annual testimony last week. Bruce Van Saun: People like to call last year’s bank failures regional bank failures. Office real estate is just one component of commercial real estate, albeit the most worrisome to banks and economists.
Persons: Bruce Van Saun, NYCB, Kori Suzuki, Reuters It’s, it’s, Jerome Powell, Van Saun, Richard Drew, didn’t, Michael Nagle, Joseph Otting, Otting, CARLOS BARRIA, we’re, we’ve Organizations: New, New York CNN, Citizens Financial Group, New York Community Bank, NYCB, Reuters, CNN, Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Citizens Financial, Providence, Financial Group, Bloomberg, SVB, we’re, SoFi, Citizens, OneWest Bank, CIT Group, REUTERS Locations: New York, Silicon, San Francisco , California, Providence , Rhode Island, Covid
The S & P 500 Volatility Index finished the week near 15 and is in a clear three- month uptrend from its mid-December low near 12, even as the S & P 500 has gained 10% since then. In fact, Friday the market minimized the headline damage to a mere two-thirds-percent dip in the S & P 500 through its signature rotational impulse. Some indicators — such as speculators remaining net short S & P 500 futures and brokerage strategists' muted index targets — imply the helpful wall of worry is not quite fully scaled. Since then, the S & P has delivered a 16.7% annualized total return, even after two bear markets and two other severe/prolonged corrections. And the S & P is only up 7% from its high 26 months ago, hardly in thin air.
Persons: what's, Eli Lilly, Martin Marietta, Nick Colas, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Costco, pharma, Martin Marietta Materials, Vulcan, 3Fourteen Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, DataTrek, Citi
New York CNN —After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. I take that as a signal of a potential turn in the CMBS market in terms of the market sentiment. It’s not just all gloom and doom in the CRE market. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. OPEC+, a coalition of the world’s top oil producing countries, had announced voluntary oil cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November.
Persons: Tracy Chen, Chen, that’s, Bell, Banks aren’t, CMBS, We’ve, they’ve, , Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, , Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, Eva Rothenberg, Brent, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Brandywine, Intercontinental Exchange and Bank of America, outperformance, Fed, New York Community Bank, York Community Bank, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, OPEC, AAA Locations: New York, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, New, New York City, Richmond, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United States
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates climbed for the fourth week in a row, inching closer to 7% just as peak homebuying season gets underway. Since reaching a 20-year high of 7.79% in October, mortgage rates have been slowly falling. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. Last week, mortgage applications dropped 5.6% from the week before, according to the MBA. Higher home prices pushed loan amounts higher in January, offsetting what was a monthly decline in mortgage rates, said Edward Seiler, MBA’s associate vice president for housing economics.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Khater, Bob Broeksmit, Mike Fratantoni, Edward Seiler, MBA’s, Lawrence Yun Organizations: DC CNN —, , Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington
I wondered if ChatGPT would give me good retirement adviceSpeaking of tiresome work, I've spent many years putting off my retirement plan beyond my husband's 401(k). First, I asked Rush and ChatGPT the same question: What are the best retirement strategies for self-employed people? They recommended similar types of accountsRush and ChatGPT had similar suggestions regarding which kinds of retirement savings accounts freelancers should consider. ChatGPT also mentioned determining your risk tolerance and diversifying your investment portfolio accordingly, as well as including healthcare expenses in your retirement plans by contributing to an HSA, and reassessing and adjusting your retirement plans regularly. I'm happy getting retirement advice from a humanBut Rush had a few other suggestions that ChatGPT didn't list in its response to my question.
Persons: ChatGPT, I've, Justin Rush, Rush, it's, they've, doesn't Organizations: Service, Business, Google, IRA
Berkshire is making bank on bonds, and its $168 billion cash pile is worth more than Uber or Nike. Assets aplentyBerkshire held $561 billion of net assets at the end of December, a 19% increase from a year earlier. Berkshire's $1 trillion-plus of assets included $354 billion of stocks, $178 billion of property and equipment, $130 billion of Treasury bills, and $24 billion of inventories. That figure is larger than the value of General Electric ($167 billion), Comcast ($166 billion), Uber ($162 billion), Nike ($160 billion), Walmart ($159 billion), American Express ($156 billion), or Pfizer ($155 billion). The upshot is that on December 31, Berkshire held $354 billion of stocks, and $168 billion of cash and other short-term investments — a ratio of nearly 2:1.
Persons: Warren Buffett's, Buffett, , Warren Buffett, you'd, Cash, Treasuries, Charlie Munger Organizations: Berkshire Hathaway's, Nike, Service, Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire, aplenty, Berkshire's, Electric, Comcast, Walmart, American Express, Pfizer, Federal Reserve Locations: Berkshire, aplenty Berkshire, Omaha
Mortgage rates rise for the third week in a row to 6.9%
  + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates climbed for the third week in a row, inching closer to 7%. Mortgage rates have been making smaller moves over the past two months, after coming down from last year’s high, 7.79%, reached in October. Historically, Khater said, the mix of a strong economy and higher rates didn’t meaningfully impact the housing market. “In essence, Federal Reserve officials are seeking more concrete evidence of sustained improvement in inflation before making any changes,” she said. “The recent increase in mortgage rates has the potential to slow the market by disrupting the plans of many buyers, especially in a market where a significant number of consumers are anticipating lower mortgage rates, not higher,” said Xu.
Persons: Freddie Mac, who’ve, , , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Khater, Jiayi Xu, Powell’s, Xu Organizations: DC CNN —, Federal Reserve, Realtor.com, Federal, Mortgage, Association Locations: Washington
Mortgage rates rise for the second week, reaching 6.77%
  + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Washington, DC CNN —After treading water for months, US mortgage rates jumped higher Thursday following a string of strong employment and inflation reports. “On the heels of consumer prices rising more than expected, mortgage rates increased this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The addition of needed inventory and the prospect of lower mortgage rates this year may spur buyers to jump into the market. “This spring, buyers are likely to see lower mortgage rates than in the fall of 2023, which may mean more eager buyers in the market,” Jones said.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Khater, Bob Broeksmit, Broeksmit, Jerome Powell, Hanna Jones, who’ve, Lisa Sturtevant, Jones, Alicia Huey, ” Jones Organizations: DC CNN, , Mortgage Bankers Association, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Realtor.com, National Association of Home Builders Locations: Washington,
A lower-cost way to play the S&P 500's run to 5,000
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
The S & P 500 once again closed at a new all-time high, achingly close to 5,000 for those enamored of nice round numbers. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year Is there an option trade we can use if we're not sure? If S & P earnings grow closer to their historical average, then $240ish (let's stick to round numbers) might be a more accurate estimate. $240 a shares multiplied by 20 = $4,800 in the S & P. So in that context 5,000 is a little rich, but not much. The VIX Index , a measure of 30 day volatility in the S & P 500, is below 13, cheaper than usual.
Persons: we're, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Krugmans, aren't Organizations: Investors, Nvidia Locations: China, U.S
Treasury sells $42B in 10-year notes
  + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTreasury sells $42B in 10-year notesCNBC's Rick Santelli joins 'The Exchange' to report on the record US$42 billion sale of 10-year Treasuries.
Persons: CNBC's Rick Santelli Organizations: Treasury
Read previewThe labor market smashed expectations in January, adding 353,000 new jobs, far above economist forecasts of 187,000. Despite the strong headline number, however, there are signs that the job market is deteriorating beneath the surface. For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey is showing some divergence from its payroll survey. "High labor and credit costs are beginning to materially impact corporate profits, which impacts both the labor market and (eventually) the default rate." Still, while there are signs of weakening, there are also signs of improvement in the labor market.
Persons: , Jeff Schulze, today's, Shulze, Louis Fed, Lance Roberts, Ian Shepherdson, Lauren Goodwin Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, of Labor Statistics, BLS, of Labor, ClearBridge Investments, RIA Advisors, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Bank of America's Global, New York Life Investments, ClearBridge
Dollar poised for weekly decline; US jobs data up next
  + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar index was last at 103.02 and on track for its first weekly decline for the year. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.07% to $0.6149 and was on track for a weekly rise of nearly 1%, its best performance in over a month. It was poised for a weekly gain of nearly 1.3%, its best week in over a month. That highlighted a growing view within the board that conditions were falling in place to soon pull short-term interest rates out of negative territory, which would be Japan's first interest rate hike since 2007. Data on Thursday showed euro zone inflation eased as expected last month but underlying price pressures fell less than forecast, likely boosting the European Central Bank's argument that rate cuts should not be rushed.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Ray Attrill, Raf Choudhury, BoE, Thierry Wizman Organizations: Federal Reserve, New Zealand, National Australia Bank, Friday's, Analysts, Bank of Japan's, Bank of England, Monetary, European Locations: Abrdn, U.S
Dollar hovers near 7-week high as Fed cut bets shift to May
  + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
In this photo illustration, a person seen holding a 100 US dollar bill in his hand. The dollar has been buoyed by U.S. economic data suggesting the Fed can wait longer before cutting interest rates. Powell gave the currency another push overnight by calling a cut in March "not the base case." Traders are now pricing in a 38% probability the Fed will cut rates in March, down from 59% ahead of the Fed decision. Against Japan's currency, the dollar drifted 0.06% lower to 146.81 yen , adding to Wednesday's 0.47% decline.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Hogan, Riley, Sean Callow Organizations: Federal, Treasury, U.S, New, Bancorp, Fed, Traders, New York Community Bancorp, Investors, UST, Westpac, U.S . Locations: U.S, New York
Here's why the Fed rate cuts are coming
  + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why the Fed rate cuts are comingKomal Sri-Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies president, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss why a rally is ahead for Treasuries and equities markets could struggle, why the economy hasn't already seen a crack from the consumer, and more.
Persons: Kumar Organizations: Kumar Global
There’s plenty for investors to celebrate right now, but a look under the hood reveals quite a bit of decay. But it’s largely Big Tech that’s driving markets higher, and that concentration of gains in so few stocks carries inherent risk. But investors are adjusting expectations: Investors eventually get used to strong data, and come to expect it. “It’s hard for data to keep surprising in the same direction, since investors simply adjust their expectations,” said Allen. Just one month ago, more than 75% of investors thought the central bank would cut rates at their March meeting.
Persons: Bell, Debbie Downer, Wall, Dow, Germany’s DAX, Henry Allen, , Allen, Christopher Waller, That’s, Bill Gates, Larry Fink, Chris Isidore, “ I’m, Scott Kirby, they’ve, ” Kirby, Boeing Max, Max, Kirby, “ We’re, Samantha Delouya, Amy Reinhard, Netflix’s, , we’ve Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nvidia, Microsoft, Investment, Deutsche Bank, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, University of, National Association of Business Economics, University of Michigan, Fed, ” Financial, BlackRock, Boeing United Airlines, Boeing, United, CNBC, Alaska Airlines, Federal Aviation Administration, United Airlines, Refinitiv, Max, FAA, Netflix Locations: New York, Europe
The long wait between S & P 500 all-time highs is a friendly factor for forward performance, as far as historical observations go. John Kolovos of Macro Risk Advisors says, "It is OK to be bullish on the stock market (S & P 500) just not the market of stocks (everything else)," from a trend-following perspective. Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics calculates that the equal-weight S & P is one standard deviation cheap versus the market-cap-weighted index. Remarkably, the S & P 500 first pushed above 19-times forward earnings exactly four years ago, right before the Covid crash. Well, the S & P 500 has delivered an annualized total return near 11% in the four years since.
Persons: Ned Davis, Wayne Whaley, Whaley, I've, haven't, John Kolovos, Barry Knapp, Knapp, USTs, it's, hasn't Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Foresight, Federal, noncommittal, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Deutsche Bank
The idea of using Russia's frozen assets is gaining new traction lately as continued allied funding for Ukraine becomes more uncertain and the U.S. Congress is in a stalemate over providing more support. Bipartisan legislation circulating in Washington called the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act would use assets confiscated from the Russian Central Bank and other sovereign assets for Ukraine. Belgium, which is holding the rotating presidency of the European Union bloc for the next six months, is now leading the talks on whether to seize Russia's assets. Belgium is also the country where most frozen Russian assets under sanctions are being held. Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, cautioned that if Ukraine's immediate needs aren't met, “no amount of seized Russian assets is unfortunately going to compensate for what may happen."
Persons: — It's, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, “ Putin, , ” Biden, Penny Pritzker, , Nicholas Mulder, Vladimir Putin, Shalanda Young, ” Young, ” Sergey Aleksashenko, Treasuries —, Konstantin Malofeyev, Alexander De Croo, De Croo, Maria Snegovaya, aren't, Ellen Knickmeyer, Lisa Mascaro, Seung Min Kim, Zeke Miller, Aamer, Sam Petrequin, Jamey Keaton Organizations: WASHINGTON, Russian Central Bank, U.S ., U.S, ., , Ukraine, Russia, Cornell University, Washington, Russia's Central Bank, White, Management, Russian Central Banker, Russian, Justice Department, State Department, European Union, Belgian, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Associated Press Locations: United States, Ukraine, Davos, Switzerland, Ukrainian, Washington, , America, Russia, Russian, U.S, China, Frankfurt, Belgium, Brussels
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