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☆ March in a presidential election year may kick off a weak period. Here's why that could be a buying opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Seasonally speaking, stocks could be in for a pullback as the calendar turns to March in a presidential election year. In every March since 1950, the S & P 500 historically rises 1.1%, but the same month in presidential election years scores a smaller 0.4% advance on average. Currently, the S & P 500 is trading around the 5,100 level. But Hirsch advised investors to watch S & P 500 support levels closer to 4,800, the prior all-time high, or 4,600, the high from the summer of 2023. That's because Hirsch anticipates the S & P 500 will rise to 5,500 by year end, so any dips may prove a buying opportunity for investors.

Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, Russell, Hirsch, it's, you've, —, Hirsch isn't, Katie Stockton, Sam Stovall, Stovall Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, CFRA Research

☆ Something unusual is happening with the S&P 500, and it could mean more gains ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 is about to do something unusual that has typically been followed by strong gains ahead. There have been only been 28 instances in which the S & P 500 has risen over the first two months of the year. The S & P 500 hit record highs in recent weeks, prompting questions about whether it can continue advancing or is due for a correction. With last week's advance, the S & P 500 officially finished 15 of the last 17 completed trading weeks in the green. The S & P 500 went on to finish that year up by a whopping 27.3%.

Persons: what's, Henry Allen, Allen, Madonna Organizations: Carson Group, Deutsche Bank, Bretton Locations: U.S

☆ Jim Chanos discusses his legendary Enron short bet more than two decades later
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Short seller Jim Chanos is best known for calling the collapse of Enron, the world's largest energy trading company at the time. "Because the news got worse and worse and worse, and every piece of incremental bad news was much worse than what we've been through." Here's one thing that might come as a surprise: Enron was not the only stock Chanos shorted and profited from during the episode. However, Chanos saw a big red flag in Dynegy that make him bet against the stock, which eventually plunged 90%. Watch the full video above to learn about Chanos' legendary Enron bet.

Persons: Jim Chanos, Chanos, Dynegy, Jeffrey Skilling, Warren Buffett's, —, Michael Burry, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Enron, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, CNBC, Warren, Warren Buffett's Berkshire, Nvidia, There's

☆ A software consultant who also day trades stocks gained 805% in 2023. He shares a chart indicator he uses to trade volatile small-cap and penny stocks.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-03 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

After a few years of attempting to swing trade, Gajjala searched for an approach where he could feel more in control of his trades. For this trade, Gajjala has less time for analysis and needs to execute within the first and second bull flags. The red circle in the chart below demonstrates what a bull flag pullback looks like on a chart. Bull flag pullback chart pattern. By the time he did notice it, it had begun to form the second bull flag pattern.

Persons: Goverdhan Gajjala, Mark Minervini, Gajjala, hadn't, Norman Zadeh, Zadeh Organizations: Business, Nextplay Technologies, Bionomics Ltd

☆ Wall Street is on pace to finish January higher. Why that could be good news for the rest of the year
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

That's according to the "January barometer" from the "Stock Trader's Almanac," which argues that "as the S & P 500 goes in January, so goes the rest of the year." The S & P 500 has managed to trade above the 4,900 level already this month and is currently up 3.3% in the new year. That's enough to put the broad market index trading above Wall Street strategists' average 2024 target of 4,914, according to the CNBC PRO Market Strategist Survey. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2024 Election Year Notably, 2024 is a U.S. presidential election year. By comparison, the S & P 500 typically gains 15% in those years with a higher January.

Persons: Stocks, Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Sam Stovall, Outperformers, Dow, Stovall, What's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wall, CNBC, Market, Survey, Bank of America, Dow Jones Locations: U.S

☆ A software consultant who day trades stocks gained 805% in 2023. He shares 3 chart indicators that led him from consistent losses to becoming profitable.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-20 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

He joined his private access program, a paid educational platform for trading stocks, where he spent a year learning the content. The stock's price should pull back organically, meaning the volume parallel to the downward price move should be gradual. On a daily chart like the one above, it's based on the past nine days. If the stock's price doesn't fall below it or forms a support line, it signals that the price could likely retrace and increase. Instead of entering five to 10 trades daily, he now keeps it at two to three.

Persons: Goverdhan Gajjala, William O'Neil, Gajjala, Mark Minervini, It's, Minervini's, Norman Zadeh, Zadeh Organizations: Service, Investor's Business Daily, US, EMA, Health Intelligence Locations: Dallas

☆ First the Santa Claus Rally failed, now the First Five Days indicator is also negative
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Despite a huge rally Monday led by tech stocks that drove up the S & P 500 by 1.4%, a second seasonal indicator is flashing red. First the Santa Claus Rally failed. Now the First Five Days indicator is also negative. The S & P 500 is down 0.1% in the first five trading days of the year. The Santa Claus Rally and the First Five Days indicator have failed together 9 times since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Persons: Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, There's Organizations: Santa Claus, Stock

☆ The ‘Santa Claus rally’ is in trouble, and that may signal weaker stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Santa Claus rally is in trouble. With one day left in the trade, the S & P 500 is down 0.1% in the past six days. Fortunately, a negative Santa Claus rally period doesn't happen very often, only 12 times since 1969 — less than 25% of the time. "That is 16 out of 16 years, which includes years with recessions, like 2020," Clifton notes. The outperformance is notable: The S & P tends to be stronger by 1.3% on average.

Persons: Santa Claus, Jeff Hirsch, Tom McClellan, Hirsch, Dan Clifton, Clifton, Biden, Jason Trennert, Strategas, There's Organizations: Santa, Treasury, Bloomberg Locations: Santa, Santa Claus, U.S, Strategas, Mexico, India, Taiwan, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa, Tunisia

☆ Santa Claus rally period starts on Friday with an average gain of about 1% the next 7 trading days
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-22 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Friday is the official start of the Santa Claus rally. What the Santa Claus Rally is, and isn't Over the years, Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac has repeatedly told me the key to understanding the Santa Claus rally is that it is not a trading strategy, it is an indicator. Fortunately, a negative Santa Claus rally period doesn't happen very often, only 12 times since 1969 (less than 25% of the time). In the years when the Santa Claus period is negative, the S & P is up an average of only 5.0%, versus an average gain of 9.1% in all years. You can see this very clearly in this chart: The common explanation is that: 1) markets are stronger with a sitting president because a sitting President can pull levers to help the economy, and 2) markets tend to be weaker with no sitting president because of increased uncertainty around economic outcomes.

Persons: Santa Claus, Yale Hirsch, Ryan Detrick, I've, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch Organizations: Carson Group, Santa Locations: Santa

☆ One year after the December 2022 Fed meeting and stock investors are almost back to even
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-13 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P ended last December down almost 6% and ended all of 2022 down almost 20% (19.4% to be exact). 2 022 was an odd duck Last year was an unusual one — unusual because market declines of 20% don't happen very often. And the S & P 500? The S & P dropped 25% from the January 2022 closing high of 4,793 to the bottom of 3,577 in October 2022. Three-quarters of the time, the S & P 500 goes up from one year to the next.

Persons: Stocks, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Down

☆ Here’s what the S&P 500’s summer hot streak can teach us about the late 2023 rally and its staying power
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

In the final run-up to the late-July peak in stocks this column surveyed the rally , and asked, "Enough for now? .SPX YTD line The S & P 500's year-to-date performance Yes, the market is overbought by various technical measures. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Barclays are seeing the S & P 500 as dead money next year, at best. The virtues of owning the S & P 500 passively have always been low cost, tax efficiency, low turnover and broad exposure to the asset class. While 2021 was a Nasdaq 100 melt-up year, 2022 was the mirror image: Big Tech got blasted and the equal-weight S & P 500 held up better.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Jack Bogle, Alan Greenspan's Organizations: Federal, Deutsche, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, Barclays, Hamas, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, matchless, Treasury Locations: Wells Fargo, Israel

☆ Signs of a sector rotation — plus 2 more themes to watch in the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Historically, November is the best month of the year for the stock market, and December is third, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Under the surface this week, we also saw signs of a possible market rotation in the works. Rotation watch : We must look to next week's trading for confirmation that we're in the grips of a rotation or simply a head fake. Signs of the former were on display this week as the two of the biggest sector winners of the year, communication services and technology , trailed the market. Jobs, jobs, jobs : The most important release of the week comes Friday in the form of the November nonfarm payrolls report.

Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Locker, it's, Hock Tan, We'll, Joann, JOAN, JM Smucker, OLLI, Campbell Soup, Brown, Forman, LULU, Smith, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Wall, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Cisco Systems, VMWare, Club, PMI, Labor, Signet Jewelers, SIG, Brands, Toll, Thor Industries, Natural Foods, GameStop, Vail Resorts, MTN, Smith & Wesson, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Asana, ASAN, New York City

☆ Wall Street will try to keep the November momentum going in the final month of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street will endeavor to keep the November momentum going in the final month of 2023, as investors look for a broadening out of the rally that has been dominated this year by a handful of tech names. It also marked the best monthly performance for the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite since July 2022. While the S & P 500 cap-weighted index climbed more than 18% this year, the equal-weighted index is up by just over 4%. They highlight the attractive relative valuation of value stocks compared to growth stocks, as well as the significant underweighting of value names in portfolios by traders. And the question is, is it going to be in 2024, is it going to be 2025 or in 2026?

Persons: Stocks, Hogan, Olivier Sarfati, GenTrust's Sarfati, Carlos Asilis, Asilis, FactSet, nonfarm payrolls, They're, TK, Nonfarm Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Riley, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Expedia, Paramount Global, Russell, Glovista Investments, PMI, Services PMI, ADP, Labor, Consumer Credit, Broadcom Locations: U.S, Michigan

☆ After an extraordinary November for stocks, December has a lot in its corner. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is boring right now, and that is not a bad thing. There's a strong backdrop going into December. The S & P 500 was up 8.9%, its best month since July 2022, and the fourth-best November since 1950. If it doesn't seem that way, it's because the S & P has been flat for the past week and a half. There will be lots of complaints about high valuations, and the cynics will be right: The S & P is approaching 19-times 2024 earnings.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, let's Organizations: Triple Witching, Treasury, Atlanta, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, JPMorgan, Dow, Revenue Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ 'It's beginning to look a lot like VIX-mas.' What Wall Street's fear gauge is saying right now
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"It's beginning to look a lot like 'VIX-mas,'" Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, wrote in a note Sunday. Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey on Monday wrote that a low VIX is historically a bad sign for markets entering a new year. .VIX 5Y mountain CBOE Market Volatility Index, 5 years "We think 2024 will be a 'trader's market,' not a buy-and-hold situation," Harvey wrote. "But we ultimately think, you know, beyond that, it's poised to go lower just given the low volatility cycle that's been in place." The question is whether we are entering a new period of low volatility as the norm starting in 2024.

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG's Krinsky, Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey, Harvey, SPX, Will Tamplin, Tamplin, it's, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, " Wald, Krinsky Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia Locations: U.S

☆ Wells Fargo unveils 2024 target, warns of 'really, really sloppy' first half for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Wells Fargo Securities is officially out with its 2024 stock market forecast. The second half will be better, but the first half is going to be really, really sloppy." In his official 2024 outlook note, Harvey told clients to brace for a "trader's market" instead of a "buy-and-hold situation." We've seen the equity market pull back, and it's just not a great setup into 2024," Harvey added. He warns the higher cost of capital is an additional market problem because it prevents multiples from going higher.

Persons: Chris Harvey, CNBC's, Harvey, it's Organizations: Wells Fargo Securities Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Don't fear December: Stocks usually see year-end gains, especially before a presidential election year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

December is the time of the season when investors seldom have to worry about stock market performance, particularly in years that come before a presidential election. "Trading in December is holiday-inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month," Hirsch recently told subscribers. "However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins." December does even better for small-cap stocks, at least going back to 1979, delivering the year's second-highest monthly return. That small cap return is usually back end loaded, however, only starting around the middle of the month.

Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, Hirsch, outsized, Dow Industrials, Russell Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft Locations: Decembers

☆ The turkey trade: These stocks have a history of doing well after Thanksgiving
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Pro screened for stocks that tend to rise following the Thanksgiving holiday. Wall Street likes the shares today: At least 55% of analysts polled by FactSet maintain buy ratings. Shares are also well liked by analysts with more than 69% of analysts polled by FactSet maintain a buy rating on CVS. CVS YTD mountain CVS stock. The stock has historically added 2.6% after Thanksgiving with holiday travel in full swing, and shares have climbed 9% in 2023.

Persons: Wall Organizations: Dow Jones, Stock Trader's, CNBC Pro, FactSet, Caesars Entertainment, Culinary Union, Pharmacy, CVS, Delta Locations: Atlanta

☆ A less risky way to bet on a chip stock with a reasonable valuation ahead of earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

These events could be company-specific, like earnings announcements, shareholder meetings, and presentations, or market-wide, such as macroeconomic data releases. An important part of our process is options market sentiment analysis . I've included that score related to our proprietary options market analysis in the table below. Options market sentiment analysis is a technique used to gauge investors' expectations and attitudes toward a particular stock or the market as a whole, based on options trading data. The benefit is that one is risking $3.30 in total, or about 1.8% of the current stock price.

Persons: I've Organizations: Devices, Deere, Deere & Co, DE Locations: HPQ

☆ Wall St Week Ahead After breathtaking surge, US stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up nearly 18% for the year and less than 2% away from its year-high, reached in July. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Yung, Yu Ma, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, ” Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Seasonality, LSEG Datastream, Jason Pride, Keith Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, BMO Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, “, CPI, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Advisory Services, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead - After breathtaking surge, U.S. stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up 17% for the year and about 6% from its record closing high from January 2022. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.

☆ Wall Street turns to Nvidia earnings in the week ahead as stocks try to keep their November momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Nvidia earnings will be in focus in the Thanksgiving-shortened week ahead, as investors consider the sustainability of the November rally heading into year-end. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD The chip giant's results will come amid a broad rally for equities this month. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced more than 9%. That stands in marked contrast to the S & P 500, which trades at a multiple of 22. Hopes for a dovish Fed Wall Street is also heading into next week after absorbing some positive news.

Persons: Timothy Arcuri, China —, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Quincy Krosby, Bill Baruch, CNBC's, That's, Bonds, Giuseppe Sette, Dow, Jeff Hirsch, —, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Microsoft, LPL, Dow, Blue, Investors, Chicago Fed, HP Inc, Autodesk, Devices, Lowe's, Deere, P, PMI, P Global PMI Locations: FactSet, China, Treasurys, Lombard, Michigan

☆ Stock market looks to escape macroeconomic fears as it mounts a November comeback
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Progress, for sure, with something more to prove. And of course, the S & P had only just broken an eight-session win streak before then. There's no doubt the spread between, say, the Nasdaq 100 and the equal-weight S & P 500 is extreme this year, at some 42 percentage points. The S & P 500 High Beta Index, tracked by the SPHB ETF , now trades under 15-times forward earnings, down from 20-times in February and a current 18 for the S & P 500. Earnings growth — even if slow and unevenly bestowed across sectors — tends to limit equity downside at minimum.

Persons: that's, Disinflation Organizations: Federal, stoke, Treasury, Fed, NYSE, Trader's, Nasdaq, Beta Locations: Friday's

☆ Here are Wall Street’s favorite stocks into November — all expected to rise more than 20%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Heading into November, CNBC screened for Wall Street's favorite stocks out of the S & P 500, or stocks that met the following criteria: Consensus 12-month price target calls for a 20% or more upside. The average analyst surveyed by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv, has a consensus potential upside of 23% on T-Mobile . The consensus price target for the stock implies a forecast upside of almost 24%. In October, Morgan Stanley named the stock as one of its favorite stock picks in a slowing, late-cycle economy. Other names beloved by Wall Street and highlighted in our screen include Targa Resources , Halliburton and Centene .

Persons: Stocks, Wall, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CNBC, LSEG, Mobile, Energy, Oil, Wall, Resources, Halliburton, Centene

☆ After a miserable October, the setup for stocks in November is looking better
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a miserable October, the setup for November is looking better. Barring a huge rally Tuesday, October will be the third-consecutive down month for the S & P 500 — that's unusual. 1 month for the S & P 500. It's just that stocks have sold off during earnings season because of the cautious outlook being projected on many earnings calls. The chances the S & P 500 would be down four months in a row is very small.

Persons: —, That's, Nicholas Colas, Colas, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, It's, hasn't, Jonathan Krinsky Locations: DataTrek, Israel, BTIG

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