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☆ UBS investors warm to Credit Suisse deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Oliver Hirt | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Several fund managers who hold UBS stock have told Reuters they think UBS has bought Credit Suisse at a good price, with some even describing it as a steal. "UBS got Credit Suisse for practically nothing, so accordingly the deal will work out for them," another investor told Reuters. Still, UBS inherits a troubled legacy at Credit Suisse, said Thomae, pointing to legal risks which UBS has said could cost billions of dollars. Rivals have poached entire teams from Credit Suisse, he said, and some clients are likely to follow them. Deka's Thomae said UBS and Credit Suisse together would have a market share in Switzerland that is just within acceptable limits.

Persons: Colm Kelleher, Guy de Blonay, Andreas Thomae, Thomae, de Blonay, De Blonay, JP Morgan, Kian Abouhossein, Julius Baer, Deka's Thomae, Oliver Hirt, John Revill, David Holmes Organizations: Credit Suisse, UBS, Switzerland's, Reuters, Jupiter Asset Management, CS, Swiss, UBS AG, Credit Suisse AG, STATE, Deka Investment, Fund, Rivals, Suisse, JP, Suisse's, Investors, Credit, Thomson Locations: ZURICH, Suisse's Swiss, Switzerland

☆ China economic data likely to show recovery is fading quickly
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Producer prices fell at the fastest pace in over seven years in June and consumer prices teetered on the verge of deflation, data showed earlier in the week. Authorities are likely to roll out more stimulus steps including fiscal spending to fund big-ticket infrastructure projects, more support for consumers and private firms, and some property policy easing, policy insiders and economists said. The central bank cut the RRR - the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves - in March. China also cut its benchmark lending rates by a modest 10 basis points in June, the first such reduction in 10 months. But the central bank is likely to be wary of cutting lending rates further.

Persons: Kevin Yao, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reuters, Authorities, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, COVID

☆ China central bank to use tools such as RRR to tackle economic woes
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. The central bank will step up "countercyclical adjustments" to support the economic recovery, PBOC Deputy Governor Liu Guoqiang told the press conference. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the central bank to cut the RRR by 25 basis points in the third quarter. But Liu said China has not seen deflation and there were no deflationary risks for the second half. "As for the specific policy tools, we will use them reasonably according to the needs of the situation."

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Zou Lan, Zou, Liu Guoqiang, Liu, Liangping Gao, Ellen Zhang, Shri Navaratnam, William Mallard Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Reuters, Securities Times, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING

BEIJING, July 13 (Reuters) - China's exports contracted last month at their fastest pace since the onset three years ago of the COVID-19 pandemic, as an ailing global economy puts mounting pressure on Chinese policymakers for fresh stimulus measures. Momentum in China's post-pandemic recovery has slowed after a brisk pickup in the first quarter, with analysts now downgrading their projections for the economy for the rest of the year as factory output slows in the face of persistently weak global demand. Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy slumped a worse-than-expected 12.4% year-on-year in June, data from China's Customs Bureau showed on Thursday, following a drop of 7.5% in May. Imports contracted 6.8%, steeper than an expected 4.0% decline and the previous month's 4.5% fall. With exports accounting for about one-fifth of the economy and the troubled property sector for about one-third, China's prospects have dimmed for a quick recovery after COVID-related lockdowns battered the economy in 2022.

Persons: Zichun Huang, Xu Tianchen, Li Qiang, Zhiwei Zhang, Joe Cash, Ellen Zhang, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Customs, . Imports, Reuters, Capital Economics, Administration of Customs, Exports, Economist Intelligence Unit, Management, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, United States, Russia

☆ China's Q2 GDP seen rising 7.3% y/y but on low base, recovery fades: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Economic growth is likely to slow to 4.8% in the third quarter and 5.3% in the fourth, with full-year growth expected to reach 5.5%, the poll showed. China's central bank on Monday extended until the end of 2024 some policies which were unveiled in a November rescue package to shore up the real estate sector, including loan repayment extensions for developers. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the central bank to cut banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25 basis points in the third quarter, while keeping benchmark lending rates steady. The central bank cut the RRR - the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves - in March. But the central bank is likely to be wary of cutting lending rates further.

Persons: it's, Zhang Yiping, Li Qiang, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Jing Wang, Kevin Yao, Kim Coghill Organizations: Beijing, Reuters, Gross, China Merchants Securities, stoke, Thomson Locations: China, BEIJING, Bengaluru, Shanghai

☆ China's June exports fall 12.4%, imports drop 6.8%
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, July 13 (Reuters) - China's exports fell 12.4% in June year-on-year, while imports contracted 6.8%, customs data showed on Thursday, suggesting manufacturers are struggling to find buyers while overseas economies wrestle with inflation and rising interest rates. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast exports to have shrunk 9.5% and imports to have fallen 4.0%. The drop in exports was the worst since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic more than three years ago. That is less than half the rates typical throughout recent decades and creates the feel of an economy in recession. South Korean shipments to China, a leading indicator for China's imports, fell 19.0% last month, the smallest decline since October but suggesting demand for semiconductors and other components used to manufacture electronic goods remains weak.

Persons: Li Qiang, Joe Cash, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China

Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy were projected to have fallen 9.5% year-on-year, following a drop of 7.5% in May, according to the median forecast of 30 economists in the poll finalised on Wednesday. That is less than half the rates typical throughout recent decades and creates the feel of an economy in recession. One-third of respondents to the trade poll forecast that exports in June dropped by a double-digit percentage, as in January. Imports in June are expected to have shrunk by 4.0%, after a fall of 4.5% in May, reflecting persistently weak domestic demand. China's trade data will be released on Thursday.

Persons: Premier Li Qiang, Susobhan Sarkar, Devayani, Joe Cash, Edmund Klamann Organizations: BEIJING, Societe Generale, Imports, Fitch, Premier, Thomson

☆ Dollar slips as Fed hike cycle nears end; focus on US inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Several Fed officials said on Monday the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down still-high inflation, but that the end to its current monetary policy tightening cycle is getting close. U.S. interest rate expectations have been a key driver of the dollar since the Fed began its tightening cycle last year. A survey from the New York Federal Reserve showed on Monday waning near-term inflation expectations among Americans, who said last month they were expecting the weakest near-term inflation gains in just over two years. The dollar/yen pair is particularly sensitive to U.S. yields as interest rates in Japan are anchored near zero. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar gained 0.16% to $0.6687, while the New Zealand dollar added 0.06% to $0.6216.

Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New York Federal, Treasury, Australian, New Zealand, Macquarie, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, . U.S, Japan, China

☆ Dollar slips as Fed hike cycle nears end, focus on U.S. inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong Organizations: Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New York Federal, Treasury, Australian, New Zealand, Macquarie Locations: U.S, Asia, . U.S, Japan, China

All eyes will be on U.S. inflation data this week that will feed into the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the month. A Reuters poll of economists showed they suspect that growth in consumer prices likely slowed in June. Most megacap technology and growth stocks, valuations in which come under pressure when borrowing costs rise, eased in premarket trading, with Apple (AAPL.O) and Alphabet (GOOGL.O) down 0.7% each. Overall, earnings for the S&P 500 constituents are expected to fall 5.7% in the second quarter, Refintiv data showed. ET, Dow e-minis were up 19 points, or 0.06%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 4.5 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 41.25 points, or 0.27%.

Persons: Carl Icahn, Wall, JPMorgan Chase, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Li Auto, Johann M Cherian, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty Organizations: Citigroup, Dow, Nasdaq, Traders, Apple, JPMorgan, Swissquote Bank, Dow e, China Association of Auto Manufacturers, Ichan Enterprises, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ UK's FTSE 100 flat as energy gains offset mining losses; real estate stocks tumble
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SummaryCompanies FTSE 100 flat, FTSE 250 off 0.4%July 10 (Reuters) - UK's FTSE 100 was subdued on Monday, as gains in energy firms outpaced losses in mining stocks, after weak Chinese economic data rekindled slowing demand concerns, while real estate stocks slumped on a bearish call from HSBC. By 0718 GMT, the blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was flat, while the more domestically-focussed FTSE 250 midcap index (.FTMC) fell 0.4%. Industrial metal miners (.FTNMX551020) lost 0.8%, tracking a fall in most base metal prices. A bearish note from HSBC on UK real estate weighed on the sector, pushing down the real estate investment trusts (REITs) (.FTNMX351020) 1.2% and real estate (.FTUB3510) 1.1%. Heavyweight energy stocks (.FTNMX601010) added 0.8%.

Persons: Shashwat Chauhan, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: HSBC, Prudential, Thomson Locations: China, Bengaluru

☆ Russia's Medvedev says standoff with West to last decades, Ukraine conflict 'permanent'
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Andrew Osborn | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Medvedev, once seen in the West as a liberal moderniser, has emerged as one of Russia's most outspoken hawks since Moscow launched what it called a "special military operation" in Ukraine last year. A nuclear war was "quite probable" but was unlikely to have any winners, said Medvedev, who has repeatedly said Western support for Ukraine increases the chances of nuclear conflict. Medvedev said Moscow was still committed to stopping Ukraine join NATO. Given NATO's rule about not admitting countries entangled in territorial conflicts, he said the conflict with Ukraine could become "permanent" given its existential nature for Moscow. The only way to de-escalate tensions between Russia and the West was to enter into tough negotiations, he said.

Persons: Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's, Medvedev, Andrew Osborn, Guy Faulconbridge, Frank Jack Daniel Our Organizations: NATO, LONDON, West, Security Council, Gazeta, Thomson Locations: Russia, Cuban, Moscow, Ukraine, Kyiv, United States

REUTERS/Stringer/File PhotoSummary Fears of civil war rose in world's biggest nuclear powerMercenaries posed biggest threat to Putin in 23-year rule'Anyone with anything to lose was extremely tense' -sourceThe elite wonder: What's next for Russia? One fear was that Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary group, if he entered Moscow, would try to take over the economy, triggering yet another redistribution of ownership in Russia, the world's biggest supplier of natural resources. The source spoke on condition of anonymity due to the danger of speaking publicly in contemporary Russia. Russians started to withdraw significant amounts of roubles and seek foreign currency in 15 regions across Russia. But within the elite, there is now a fear that Putin will seek to assert his position and remove those he felt did not profess their loyalty with enough ardour.

Persons: Wagner, Stringer, Putin, What's, Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner, Prigozhin's, Mikhail Gorbachev, Andrei Belousov, Dmitry Gusev, Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin, Russia's, Sergei Shoigu, Valery Gerasimov, Viktor Zolotov, Guy Faulconbridge, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: Southern Military District, REUTERS, Reuters, Kremlin, KGB, Bolshevik, Air, Jets, General Staff, National Guard, Thomson Locations: Rostov, Don, Russia, MOSCOW, Moscow, Russian, Soviet, Ukraine, Belgrade, Istanbul, Dubai, Sochi, Belarus, Belarusian, Zolotov

MOSCOW, June 28 (Reuters) - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he persuaded Russian President Vladimir Putin not to "wipe out" mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, in response to what the Kremlin cast as a mutiny that pushed Russia towards civil war. While describing his Saturday conversation with Putin, Lukashenko used the Russian criminal slang phrase for killing someone, equivalent to the English phrase to "wipe out". "I also understood: a brutal decision had been made (and it was the undertone of Putin's address) to wipe out" the mutineers, Lukashenko told a meeting of his army officials and journalists on Tuesday, according to Belarusian state media. Later Lukashenko told his military that "people fail to understand that we are approaching this in a pragmatic way ... Prigozhin halted what he called was "march of justice" on Moscow from the southern city of Rostov-on-Don within 200 kilometres of the capital after Lukashenko's intervention.

Persons: Alexander Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin, Prigozhin, Lukashenko, Sasha, Wagner, They've, Guy Faulconbridge, Lidia Kelly, Nick Starkov, Andrew Osborn, Peter Graff Organizations: Thomson Locations: MOSCOW, Russian, Russia, Belarus, Kremlin, Belarusian, Moscow, Rostov, Melbourne

☆ What’s Going On With First Republic Bank?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( Colin Barr | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

First Republic Bank teetered for weeks following the failures early in March of two large U.S. regional banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The San Francisco company reported first-quarter results on April 24. First Republic’s deposits fell by $100 billion during the banking crisis. Net income dropped by a third.

Depositors had pulled $100 billion from accounts at the bank in the panic triggered by the SVB and Signature failures, imperiling its survival. Both SVB and Signature failed last month. Both SVB and Signature grew quickly in recent years, outpacing the ability of regulators to keep up, especially with shrinking resources. Regulators closed Signature two days after SVB was shuttered. Signature lost 20% of its total deposits in a matter of hours on the day that SVB failed, FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg has said.

☆ The Week in Business: A Trial With a Twist
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-23 | by ( Marie Solis | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

In an unexpected twist in the courtroom on Tuesday — after jurors had been selected and opening statements delayed — Fox News agreed to a $787.5 million settlement. But even at less than half that amount, the settlement is still one of the largest ever in a defamation case. Caveats released in August said vehicles and plug-in hybrids assembled outside North America were not eligible for the $7,500 credit. The list of eligible vehicles is expected to grow as carmakers fine-tune their supply chains and catch up with demand. When the bank reports its quarterly earnings this week, analysts expect to see an enormous flight of deposits — that is, customers pulling their money from the bank — and losses.

☆ JPMorgan Chase is set to report first-quarter earnings – here’s what the Street expects
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings before the opening bell Friday. Here's what Wall Street expects:Earnings: $3.41 per share, 29.7% higher than a year earlier, according to Refinitiv. For instance, JPMorgan likely benefited from an influx of deposits after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank experienced fatal bank runs. That's because smaller banks faced pressure last month as customers sought the perceived safety of megabanks including JPMorgan and Bank of America . JPMorgan is expected to post a $2.27 billion provision for credit losses, according to the StreetAccount estimate.

☆ Yellen: ‘Not anticipating a downturn’ in the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes the American economy remains strong and its banking system is resilient despite some recent turmoil among regional financial institutions. “I believe our banking system remains strong and resilient; it has solid capital and liquidity.”She added that the “US economy is obviously performing exceptionally well,” noting solid job creation, moderating inflation and robust consumer spending. “So I’m not anticipating a downturn in the economy, although of course that remains a risk,” she said. The global economy remains in a better place than many have expected, she said. “[During the G20 meeting in February], I said that the global economy was in a better place than many predicted last fall,” Yellen said.

☆ Wall Street says bad news is no longer good news. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —There’s been a seismic shift in investor perspective: Bad news is no longer good news. Markets teetered after a slew of economic reports signaled that the red-hot labor market is finally cooling (more on that later), flashing warning signals across Wall Street. Now that Wall Street is in “bad news is bad news and good news is good news” mode, it will be looking for signs that the economy remains resilient. President Joe Biden said in a statement Friday that the March data is “a good jobs report for hard-working Americans.”The March jobs report revealed that US employers added a lower-than-expected 236,000 jobs last month. The jobs report was also the first one in 12 months that came in below expectations.

☆ Morning Bid: Crude cut complicates Q2
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Brent crude surged on Monday in response, settling about 5% higher than Friday's close. The mild reaction in the rates and bond markets to the OPEC move reflects some of that. Asia and Europe's main stock indices were steady to higher, with S&P500 futures only marginally in the red ahead of Monday's open. The VIX (.VIX) volatility index was a touch higher, though still below 20, and the dollar (.DXY) was up smartly. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index teetered back on the 50 dividing line between expansion and contraction again in March.

☆ Deposit drain from smaller banks into financial giants like JPMorgan Chase has slowed, sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

First Republic Bank headquarters is seen on March 16, 2023 in San Francisco, California, United States. Tayfun Coskun | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesWearing many hatsThe dynamic has put big banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs in the awkward position of playing multiple roles simultaneously in this crisis. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo representatives declined to comment for this article. "There's been a lot of ins and outs, but people are still putting money into the big banks." While the deposit flight from smaller banks has slowed, the past few weeks have exposed a glaring weakness in how some have managed their balance sheets.

[1/2] A JPMorgan logo is seen in New York City, U.S., January 10, 2017. While lenders regularly compete for customers, the loss of confidence that shook the banking system in the last two weeks sparked concerns about contagion that could lead to a broader panic. President Joe Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Citigroup Inc. C.N Chief Executive Jane Fraser have all made statements in recent days to reassure the public that the U.S. banking system is safe. "We all have a vested interest in keeping America's financial system strong and thriving," a JPMorgan spokesperson said. "It's the envy of the world with thousands of institutions of all sizes serving every corner of the country."

Many of the regional banks have also said that their deposit base has stabilized. "The regional banks have come under pressure because they are less equipped to handle a withdrawal of deposits the way the big banks are," said Mark Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. In a move of solidarity, most of the major banks agreed on Thursday to deposit $30 billion in First Republic. At least four U.S. lawmakers said on Sunday they would consider whether a higher federal insurance limit on bank deposits than the current $250,000 threshold was needed to inspire more confidence in the system. Buffett has yet to prop up any of the regional banks.

The logos of Swiss banks Credit Suisse and UBS on March 16, 2023 in Zurich, Switzerland. Credit Suisse shares collapsed by 60% at around 9:05 a.m. London time (5:05 a.m. Swiss authorities and regulators helped to facilitate the deal, announced Sunday, as Credit Suisse teetered on the brink. The size of Credit Suisse was a concern for the banking system, as was its global footprint given its multiple international subsidiaries. "This suggests that a substantial part of Credit Suisse's $570bn assets may be either impaired or perceived as being at risk of becoming impaired.

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