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What a hung parliament in France could mean for markets
  + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Matt Clinch | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Emmanuel Dunand | Afp | Getty ImagesInitial indications on Sunday evening for the French parliamentary run-off vote threw up some big surprises, leaving political commentators contemplating a "hung parliament" scenario that could prove challenging for both policymaking and financial markets. With none of the groups expected to hit the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, gridlock could ensue over the coming weeks. The euro slipped about 0.3% against the U.S. dollar in thin trading on Sunday evening after the exit polls were released. "Regardless, uncertainty about the outlook for French policymaking is likely to be long-lasting," the analysts said. France is facing a challenging fiscal position, and the European Commission announced two weeks ago that it intended to place France under an Excessive Deficit Procedure due to its failure to keep its budget deficit within 3 percent of gross domestic product.
Persons: Emmanuel Dunand, France's, Emmanuel Macron's, policymaking, Jack Allen, Reynolds, Macron, David Roche Organizations: la Republique, Afp, Getty, Popular Front, Rassemblement National, U.S, Citi, Daiwa, European Commission, Capital Economics, Independent, National Rally Locations: France, la, Paris, Italy, Germany
A 15% year-to-date total return in the S & P 500 is the 21 st best run through June since 1900, according to Goldman Sachs. The S & P 500 since the October 2023 correction low is up 33% for an annualized total return pace of 56%. The S & P has gone eight sessions without a move of as much as half a percent. True in magnitude: The market-cap-weighted S & P 500 has outgained its equal-weighted version by more than ten percentage points this year. Not only haven't up days been broadly inclusive, the direction of the S & P 500 has been running inverse to the daily breadth over the past month.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Sharpe, it's, we'd, I've, What's, Jeff deGraaf, Trump, We've, Poor's, what's Organizations: Nvidia, Walgreens, Nike, Apple, Technology, Communication Services Locations: hiccups
Lekander predicted the EV maker's stock would plunge to $15 a share, implying a 91% decline. Tesla stock represents one of the greatest bubbles in history, he said. Earnings are falling off a cliff," he added, estimating Tesla's earnings could fall as much as 50% this year. Lekander, who has been shorting Tesla stock since 2020, echoed other Tesla bears, who have criticized the stock's lofty valuation and predicted a coming correction. AdvertisementIf the company reports losses for two quarters in a row, the stock could easily see losses in the double-digits, Lekander predicted.
Persons: Lekander, , Tesla Organizations: EV, Service, Energy, Yahoo Finance
The tech momentum trade driving market gains is likely to continue, says WisdomTree's Jeremy Siegel. AdvertisementThe tech momentum trade that has powered the stock market higher over the past year-and-a-half is likely to continue on for a lot longer than most expect, according to WisdomTree economist Jeremy Siegel. "I think that momentum trade on the tech and AI-related is still there. It takes a lot of bad news to break a momentum trade and we just haven't gotten it," Siegel said. "My forecast for three to five years on the entire stock market is 5% after inflation rate of returns.
Persons: WisdomTree's Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, , Jeremy Siegel, Carson Group's, Wharton …, overvalued Organizations: Service, CNBC, Nvidia, Broadcom, it's
Steve Eisman of "The Big Short" fame said a new thesis derived from the artificial intelligence boom has caught his attention. "You can make an argument that the revaluation of hardware is going to continue and that some parts of software will derail." But it's one of the more interesting things that I've heard in a long time," Eisman said. 'Hidden AI play' The widely followed investor has been closely tracking AI developments in the market. Apple announced it would weave generative AI technology across its native apps and latest devices, with features ranging from writing-assistance technology to generative AI-generated emojis.
Persons: Steve Eisman, Neuberger Berman, Eisman, I've, shorting, Michael Lewis's, Apple, Tim Cook Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Oracle
Short seller Andrew Left is after GameStop again, here’s why
  + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShort seller Andrew Left is after GameStop again, here’s whyShort seller Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss why he is shorting the brick-and-mortar video game retailer GameStop again in 2024.
Persons: Andrew Left Organizations: GameStop, Citron Research
Andrew Left just placed a fresh bet against GameStop shares amid its latest rally. AdvertisementAndrew Left, the famed short-seller who lost big betting against Gamestop's stunning rally in 2021, is back to shorting the meme stock amid its latest surge. Left, who also shorted Hertz and Tesla competitor Nikola in 2020, told Bloomberg he placed a bet against Gamestop stock on Monday. His latest short comes amid a surge in retail interest in GameStop. Left's firm, Citron Research, stopped publishing notes on its short bets in January 2021, around the time GameStop shares notched their all-time high.
Persons: Andrew Left, , Nikola, Keith Gill, Kitty, Gill Organizations: GameStop, Service, Gamestop's, Bloomberg, Gamestop, Citron Research
Short interest in GameStop jumped 6% to more than 68 million shares as of May 15, which accounts for over 25% of its float. For the month, GameStop is up more than 92%. A short squeeze occurs when a stock price surges, forcing investors shorting the stock to purchase shares, or cover their shorts, to buy back stock and cut their losses. The stock has its short interest as a percent of float at nearly 34%. Correction: Short interest in GameStop jumped 6% to more than 68 million shares as of May 15.
Organizations: GameStop, Traders, CNBC Pro, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Kohl's, Revenue
There's no sense in this, said Gary Kusin, the cofounder of Babbage, the company to which GameStop traces its roots. Imagine if Taylor Swift's brand or company went public, and all the Swifties bought stock, the shares would be overvalued. What Wall Street doesn't understand is that there are Swifties in the video game industry. "If I worked on Wall Street, I would find some other stocks and some other places to go; I wouldn't touch GameStop." And I believe that's exactly what's ailing Wall Street right now," Kusin said.
Persons: Michael Burry, Keith Gill, Gary Kusin, Babbage, Kusin, It's, Taylor, Swifties, Shorting, doesn't, Citron, Brooks, Macy's Organizations: GameStop, Melvin Capital Management, Technology, S3 Partners
New York CNN —We in the financial press tend to talk about the meme stock revolution (or craze, or frenzy, or mass delusion) in the past tense. Another meme stock, Trump Media and Technology Group, the Donald Trump-owned media company that controls Truth Social, brought back memories of the 2021 GameStop bonanza. With Trump Media, Trump supporters and other speculative traders pumped up the stock not for its (extraordinarily lousy) fundamentals, but more as a vote of support for the former president’s campaign and even a barometer of his winning chances. We’re not quite as exuberant today as we were then, but we’re still within spitting distance of all-time highs on major stock indices, Sosnick notes. In some ways, the arrival in the spring of Donald Trump’s media company reawakened the meme stock monster.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Wall, Keith Gill, Kitty, DeepF, Steve Sosnick, who’ve, Gill, Donald Trump, Donald Trump’s, DJT, ” Sosnick, Michael Pachter, David, Melvin Capital, Gabe Plotkin’s, , Plotkin, Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, GameStop, Interactive Brokers, Trump Media, Technology Group, AMC, Trump, Wedbush Securities Locations: New York
GameStop shares rallied more than 40% in premarket trading Monday after "Roaring Kitty," the man who inspired the epic short squeeze of 2021, posted online for the first time in roughly three years. Roaring Kitty, whose legal name is Keith Gill, is a former marketer for Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance. Currently, the short position in GameStop shares amounts to more than 24% of all its shares that are freely-available to trade, also known as the float. In response, one Robinhood user filed a class-action lawsuit following the app's decision to restrict GameStop trading on its platform. Another class-action lawsuit brought against Gill alleged that he pretended to be a novice trader despite being a licensed professional.
Persons: Roaring Kitty, Keith Gill, Gill, Capital, Ken Griffin's, Robinhood, Melvin Capital, Paul Dano Organizations: GameStop, Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance, Ken Griffin's Citadel, Citadel Locations: Reddit
As a new meme frenzy unfolds in the market, traders are once again making bets in stocks with high levels of short interest. This activity could lead several companies to become the next targets of a short squeeze. A short squeeze happens when a stock price surges and forces those shorting the stock to purchase shares, or cover their shorts, to buy back stock and cut their losses. Another solar name, Maxeon Solar Technologies , has its short interest as a percent of float at about 45%. The Children's Place is another short squeeze target, as 70% of its floating shares are being sold short.
Persons: Maxeon, Goldman Sachs Organizations: GameStop, Dow, Nasdaq, Investors, CNBC Pro, New York Stock Exchange, Solar Energy, Technologies
In 2017, at 19 years old, Jack Kellogg became interested in stock trading. AdvertisementIn 2023, he took advantage of the AI hype by trading stocks within that theme. He then reviews these stocks' price movements over the previous three to two weeks. Where it's set depends on how much he's willing to risk on each position and varies based on the stock's price movements. While he's agnostic about the stock's cap size, he favors swing trading mid and sometimes small-cap stocks.
Persons: Jack Kellogg, Timothy Sykes, Kellogg, Kellogg wasn't Organizations: Business, BI, Trust, Nvidia, CXApp Inc
An attendant holds a sample of newly-designed Japanese 10,000 yen banknote, with three-dimensional holographic technology to prevent forgery, for a photograph at the National Printing Bureau Tokyo plant in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. The yen gave up ground in early trade on Thursday, reversing direction after a sudden surge against the dollar overnight that traders and analysts were quick to attribute to intervention by Japanese authorities. The dollar was 0.9% higher at 155.98 yen as of 0100 GMT, retracing about half of its late Wednesday surge from around 157.55 to exactly 153 over a period of about 30 minutes. "The 'sneak attack' element really is the MOF (Japan's Ministry of Finance) looking to punish speculators and send a warning about shorting the yen." That helped lift the dollar to a 34-year peak of 160.245 yen on Monday and also spurred a sharp reversal which official data suggested was due to Japanese intervention totalling about $35 billion.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Masato Kanda, Kyle Rodda, Sterling, Powell, Jack Mclntyre Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Capital.com, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan, Brandywine Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Melbourne
Donald Trump's social media stock collapsed a month ago, and people were happy to tell you why. AdvertisementRemember when Trump Media & Technology Group Corp, the company that operates Truth Social, Donald Trump's social network, turned into a publicly traded stock? AdvertisementSo how do we explain that over the course of the past two weeks, Trump Media shares had doubled again? Here is the reason that Trump shares collapse, or rally, or collapse again: There is no underlying reason. So go ahead and bet on, or against Trump Media — on any given day, you could be right?
Persons: Donald Trump's, , Trump, Donald Trump, you'd, Jon Stewart Organizations: Trump Media, Service, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp, Truth, CNBC, Trump, GameStop, AMC, Knicks, Sixers, Trump Media — Locations: Bath
I reached out to investing educator Amanda Holden, who told me it's smart to start with a brokerage account. Instead of investing in individual stocks, she suggests ETFs and index funds. In order to explain some of the basics in a simple way, I reached out to investing educator Amanda Holden for her thoughts. She had four tips for getting started on your investing journey. Of course, you'll want to consult with a financial advisor for a full investing strategy; her tips are educational, but they aren't investing advice.
Persons: Amanda Holden, it's, Holden, Charles Schwab, Schwab, Get, You'll, aren't, we'll, doesn't Organizations: Fidelity, Vanguard, — Vanguard
Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes wrote a letter to lawmakers asking them to look into "unlawful manipulation" of the firm's stock. Citadel Securities last week called Nunes a "loser" for blaming shorts for the stock's decline. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementTrump Media stock has been on a roller coaster ride since its IPO at the end of last month, hitting $35.05 a share Wednesday, up almost 8% after a 54% drop from its peak.
Persons: Devin Nunes, Nunes, there's, , Donald Trump Organizations: Trump Media, Citadel Securities, Service, Social, , Securities, VIRTU, Jane, Capital, Nasdaq, Trump Locations: VIRTU Americas
Investors are stepping up bets against a broad collection of stocks as the broader market gets increasingly volatile following another hotter-than-expected March inflation report . Stocks sold off and Treasury yields jumped Wednesday when inflation was shown to be under less control than investors had counted on. Unfortunately, the latest economic numbers suggest no need for the Federal Reserve to take its foot off the interest rate brakes. B. Riley Financial is also seeing large short interest, amounting to almost 76% of its float. Other stocks with high short interest include ImmunityBio and Sunnova Energy.
Persons: Stocks, SunPower, Riley Organizations: Treasury, Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Riley, Riley Financial, Securities and Exchange Commission, Nomura, Sunnova Energy
You might miss a massive move in Trump Media & Technology Group’s stock price. Trump Media is so turbulent that it makes bitcoin’s volatility look tame. There are many reasons why Trump Media shares have been so volatile, including the fact that the company is inextricably linked to the former president. This dynamic makes it easier for investors to place bullish bets, sending Trump Media shares surging. But that has been trickier with Trump Media, allowing its stock to spike in its early days.
Persons: Donald Trump, it’s Trump, , Matthew Tuttle, Michael Ohlrogge, Matthew Kennedy, Kennedy, , it’s, Bob Sloan, Tuttle, Charles Schwab, ” Tuttle, Ohlrogge, Trump, Renaissance’s Kennedy, Jonathan Macey, ” Macey Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, Trump, Tuttle Capital Management, Trump Media’s, NYU School of Law, Similarweb, Renaissance, Facebook, Meta, “ Traders, Companies, S3 Partners, CNN, NYU, MBT, Yale Law School Locations: New York
Determining the best predictors of stock-market returns is like seeking the Holy Grail for investors. They also allowed the algorithm to come up with its own ratios in an attempt to determine whether there are better indicators of stock-market performance. Examples of variables included sales, market value, and cost of goods. The data points were then scaled using ratios to correlate a company's sales revenue to other variables, such as its size. Robbins noted that traditionally, academics begin with a theory for why certain company fundamentals could be good predictors of stock market returns before testing them.
Persons: Alejandro Lopez, Lopez, Andrew Y . Chen, Tom Zimmermann, Michael Robbins, Lira, ChatGPT, Robbins, It's Organizations: Lira, University of Florida, University of Cologne, Institutional, Investors, New York Stock Exchange, American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Lopez
He mentioned a handful of stocks that are nearing buy levels but bigger declines would need to bigger. So, with stocks selling off and cash at the ready, the question is, when do we step in? The fourth quarter was a pretty great one for Club stocks. When a stock is trading above these levels, then investors will look to these levels as support (meaning levels that might serve as a near-term floor). Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Tuesday's selloff, annualized, Jim Cramer, Jim, haven't, we've, We've, Jim Cramer's, Timothy A, Clary Organizations: CME, Federal Reserve, Abbott Laboratories, Palo Alto Networks, Investment, Fed, NYSE, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty
Since 2020, Clean Energy Transition has been short Tesla's stock, meaning Lekander's firm will profit if the automaker's shares fall. Lekander has taken his bearish Tesla call further, suggesting the stock could fall to $14 per share. watch nowIf Tesla's stock hit $14, that would represent around 91% downside from Tuesday's close. Analysts at HSBC and TD Cowen cut their price targets on Tesla's stock on Wednesday. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought Tesla stock for some of its funds this week ahead of the first-quarter delivery numbers in a sign of support.
Persons: Elon Musk, Tesla, Antonio Masiello, shorting, Lekander, Tesla's, that's, Richard Windsor, Windsor, Dan Ives, Ives, TD Cowen, Cathie Wood, Tom Narayan, CNBC's Organizations: Fratelli, shorting Elon, CNBC, Wednesday, Clean, Lansdowne Partners, Volkswagen, Radio Free Mobile, Wedbush Securities, HSBC, Invest, RBC Capital Markets Locations: Italy, Rome
Donald Trump's newly public social-media company is not the next Nvidia — or Meta or Google or whatever has happened with X/Twitter. It seems, let's say, unlikely that his media company's stock price is going to stay so high forever. AdvertisementFor one thing, TMTG, which owns the conservative Twitter copycat Truth Social, makes basically nothing. Truth Social and any other business Trump Media and Technology Group spins up is pretty much guaranteed to appeal just to Trump fans. Might Trump and Truth Social be different, at least on the stock front?
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Peter Thiel, Peter Kafka, aren't, Don Jr, Emily Stewart Organizations: Nvidia, Trump Media, Technology Group, Hasbro, Trump, Apple, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Republicans, White, GameStop, AMC, Business Locations: SPAC
Last week, Goldman Sachs told clients they should start hedging for a market decline . Here's how Goldman suggests investors worried about a declining market can hedge their positions. Others also believe that it's time to start hedging — or at least take a more conservative stance. 'Shift into more value names' Top hedge fund manager David Neuhauser says it would depend on where investors are positioned right now. But he isn't a fan of hedging strategies like options, saying "over time you just end up with lower returns."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Neuhauser, that's, Russell, Neuhauser, Brian Arcese, he's, Arcese, It's, Freddie Lait, Lait Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, CNBC Pro, Livermore Partners, London, Nvidia, Foord Asset Management, CNBC, Latitude Investment Locations: Europe, U.S
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp — Donald Trump's social media company — is a flashing red light of a stock. In other words: It seems like a perfect candidate for short sellers — investors who bet that a company's stock price is overvalued and will fall. But not that much, for now: More than 3 million shares of Trump Media have been shorted, says short-tracker S3 Partners. Related storiesS3's managing director, Ihor Dusaniwsky, offers one explanation: It's particularly hard to short Trump's company for technical reasons. There is extraordinarily little stock borrow available in [Trump Media] to support new short sales and stock borrow rates are extremely high.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Ihor, Trump's, I'd Organizations: Service, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp, Nasdaq, Business, Trump Media, SPACs, GameStop Locations: U.S
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