Speaking to a conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, Williams’ remarks took on the technical concept of the natural rate of interest, which is the interest rate that neither slows nor stimulates the economy. Before the pandemic struck, this measure, referred to as R-Star, had been historically low, allowing the central bank to keep its interest rate target at fairly low levels. Williams, a leading intellectual architect of the R-Star concept, said his bank would be relaunching its public estimate Friday, updating it on a quarterly basis. Williams’ contended that even with the pandemic and the aftermath of its most acute phase, the fundamental story of a low natural interest rate remains in place. But his comments suggest that once the Fed’s battle to contain high inflation is over it may again at some later time be able to return short-term rates to low levels.

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