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Morning Bid: Markets cheer as Powell finds his balance
  + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Acquire Licensing RightsNov 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been a day for relief rallies in Asia as investors became increasingly confident the next move in U.S. interest rates will be down, not up. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained the option of another hike, he sounded less than committed to the idea. The dovish mood proved infectious as investors pared back rate risks across much of the developed world.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Wayne Cole, It's, presser, Powell, EURIBOR, Edouard Fernandez, Isabel Schnabel, Philip Lane, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Treasury, The Bank of, U.S, Bank of England, Norges Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Wayne, Asia, The Bank of England, China
Watch CNBC's investment committee discuss treasury refunding
  + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's investment committee discuss treasury refundingJoe Terranova, Bryn Talkington, Steve Weiss, and Richard Saperstein join 'Halftime Report' to discuss the bond market's reaction to the treasury refunding, fiscal stimulus working its way through the economy, and seasonality in the market.
Persons: Joe Terranova, Bryn Talkington, Steve Weiss, Richard Saperstein Organizations: Watch
The Treasury Department announced plans Wednesday to accelerate the size of its auctions as it looks to handle its heavy debt load and with financing costs rising. The announcement comes with Treasury yields around their highest levels since 2007, a reflection of financial markets spooked over how much damage higher borrowing costs could exact. From there, the department said it will increase the auction size of various maturities, focusing more on coupon-bearing notes and bonds. By the end of January, the auction sizes will show respective increases of $9 billion, $6 billion, $9 billion and $3 billion. Stock market futures came off their lows of the morning following the announcement, while Treasury yields were lower.
Persons: Deirdre K, Dunn, Colin Teichholtz Organizations: Treasury Department, Treasury, Stock, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall
US Treasury increases size of most of its debt auctions
  + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A bronze seal for the Department of the Treasury is shown at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. Treasury yields fell after the announcement on relief the increases were not as large as some had feared. The Treasury said on Wednesday it plans to increase the size of its two-year and five-year note auctions by $3 billion per month, and to increase the size of its 3-year and 7-year note auctions by $2 billion and $1 billion per month, respectively. The government will also increase the size of its two-year floating rate note new issue and reopenings by $2 billion. Some Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) auction sizes will also be increased, with a $1 billion increase in the December 5-year TIPS auction and January 10-year TIPS auction.
Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Steven Ricchiuto, Karen Brettell, Herb Lash, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury Department, Treasury, U.S, Mizuho Securities USA, Securities, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, New York, U.S
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department said it will slow the pace of increases in its longer-dated debt auctions in the November-January quarter. Seven of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were trading higher, with information technology (.SPLRCT) and communication services (.SPLRCL) leading gains. Overall, analysts expect earnings for S&P 500 companies to grow 5% in the third-quarter, per LSEG data. The S&P index recorded seven new 52-week highs and 24 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 18 new highs and 190 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Estee Lauder, U.S . Treasury Department's refunding, Jerome Powell's, Robert Pavlik, EL.N, advancers, Amruta Khandekar, Shashwat Chauhan, Sriraj Kalluvila, Dhanya Ann Thoppil, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Treasury, CVS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, U.S . Treasury, Dakota Wealth, Traders, Treasury Department, Microsoft, Nvidia, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Labor, Dow Jones, Paycom, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, October's U.S, Fairfield , Connecticut, Bengaluru
US stocks climbed Monday as the Fed announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Bond yields ticked lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield slipping 11 basis-points. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks closed higher on Wednesday as investors took in the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision. Fed officials chose to keep interest rates level at their November policy meeting, in-line with investors' expectations. The Fed funds rate is still in the 5.25%-5.5% range, the highest interest rates have been since 2001.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: Fed, Treasury, Service, Nasdaq Locations: US, Here's
Waiting on the Fed and TreasuryThe Fed hasn’t budged on interest rates since July, and it’s expected to stand pat again today. Still, an anxious Wall Street will be closely watching for any change in the central bank’s higher-for-longer strategy on rates, including the possibility of a new increase as soon as next month. Before Jay Powell, the Fed chair, speaks this afternoon, the Treasury Department will take center stage. But this Treasury update comes against a backdrop of big tensions in the bond market. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes jumped to a 16-year high last month as investors dumped bond holdings, sending borrowing costs higher for consumers and businesses.
Persons: Wall, Jay Powell Organizations: Fed, Treasury, Treasury Department
Morning Bid: Fed, financing and jobs greet November
  + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Despite the U.S. Treasury forecasting a lower fourth-quarter borrowing need than previously flagged, the tension in the bond market remains ahead of its detailed future refinancing plans due later on Wednesday. With the Federal Reserve widely expected to hold policy rates steady again on Wednesday, the Treasury plans may end up getting more bond market attention. But U.S. consumer confidence has softened, oil prices are falling again and the overseas demand picture is weakening. Another heavy day of U.S. corporate earnings is topped by big insurers and the likes of PayPal and Kraft Heinz. On Tuesday, shares in heavy-machinery maker Caterpillar (CAT.N) sank almost 7% as signs of slowing demand overshadowed a quarterly earnings beat.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Masato Kanda, it's, Japan's, China Evergrande, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Kraft Heinz, Estee Lauder, Kraft, Ingersoll Rand, Nick Macfie Organizations: Wednesday's, Bank of Japan, Japan's Nikkei, Japan, U.S, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Treasury, HK, White House, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, Wall, PayPal, Kraft, Caterpillar, Edison, AIG, Prudential Financial, MetLife, Qualcomm, Mckesson, Kraft Heinz, Allstate, Congnizant, Boston Properties, Water, Garmin, CVS, Brands, Humana, Reuters Graphics Reuters, US National Retail Federation, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, United States, China, Hong Kong, San Francisco, Tokyo, Marathon, Boston
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Wednesday praised the Treasury Department's quarterly refunding plan, saying its method of managing the U.S.' growing debt load is just what the unsettled bond market needed. The routine announcement is receiving more attention than usual on Wall Street because of the steep rise in bond yields over the past few months. Higher bond yields often lead to increased volatility on the stock market. In particular, Cramer praised Josh Frost, the department's assistant secretary for financial markets, and the author of the report. "The 30-year buck stops right here at the door of Josh," Cramer said.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Josh Frost, Frost, Josh Organizations: Treasury, U.S, U.S . Treasury
Investors this week have fixated on a routine quarterly announcement of how the government plans to finance itself, a sign of how sensitive Wall Street has become to a rapid run-up in interest rates. On Wednesday, the Treasury Department said in its latest “refunding” announcement that it would issue an elevated amount of short-term debt later this month. It had earlier announced that it plans to borrow $776 billion in the last three months of the year, more than it ever has in the fourth quarter, to keep up with government spending and rising interest payments. The outsized attention on the Treasury Department’s announcement comes as a sharp rise in rates has pushed up the cost of government debt. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, indicative of what the government pays to borrow money for a decade, has risen by three-quarters of a percentage point since early August, the last time the Treasury Department updated the markets on its borrowing plans.
Organizations: Treasury Department, Treasury
Yen languishes as focus turns to Fed
  + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Against the dollar, the yen fell about 1.7% overnight, touching a low of 151.74 — a whisker from the 151.94 level that prompted intervention a year ago. In the U.S. data showed wages and salaries rose solidly last quarter and while consumer confidence ebbed, it fell far less than markets had expected. The euro declined 0.4% on the dollar overnight and nursed losses at $1.0579. China's Caixin PMI data will be in focus later on Wednesday, ahead of U.S. manufacturing and private payrolls figures — before the Fed meeting. U.S. yields rose in early Asia trade, while Japanese yields fell slightly on thin volumes, leaving the spread between benchmark 10-year rates at 398 bps.
Persons: Alan Ruskin, Sterling, James Malcolm, 10bp Organizations: Resona Bank, U.S, Federal Reserve, U.S . Treasury, New Zealand, The Bank of, Deutsche Bank, UBS Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, The, The Bank of Japan, U.S, London
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bond market is where the action is right now, says Treasury Partners' Richard SapersteinJoe Terranova, Bryn Talkington, Steve Weiss, and Richard Saperstein join 'Halftime Report' to discuss the bond market's reaction to the treasury refunding, fiscal stimulus working its way through the economy, and seasonality in the market.
Persons: Richard Saperstein Joe Terranova, Bryn Talkington, Steve Weiss, Richard Saperstein Organizations: Partners
Morning Bid: Refunding relief stokes bond-led bounce
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 23, 2023. But relief in Treasuries, the villain of the piece for several weeks, is probably the most significant marker for the remainder of the year. And there were further soothing noises for world bonds, even if not for global growth, from surprisingly weak Chinese business surveys for October. Overall, the picture pointed to another positive day for Wall Street stocks, with futures marginally positive ahead of the open as the Fed meeting gets underway. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Hubbell, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of, Federal Reserve, U.S . Treasury, Nikkei, Big Oil, BP, Wall, pharma, Pfizer, Caterpillar, General Motors, United Auto Workers, Detroit Three, Dallas Fed, Federal, AMD, Global, Franklin Resources, Equity, GE Healthcare, WEC Energy, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of Japan, Treasuries, California, Israel, Gaza, Europe, Chicago, Amgen, MSCI, Eaton, Franklin, AMETEK, Echolab
Morning Bid: Yield curve control morphs
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
It will keep buying bonds, but time will tell whether and how tenaciously it will impede yields rising beyond 1%. After touching an almost 10-year low in morning trade, Japanese government bond futures rallied following the announcement. For the meantime the sense that some sort of anchor remains also spread some cheer to Treasury trade, sparking a brief rally. Falls in Hong Kong and Shanghai led MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan 0.9% lower (.MIAPJ0000PUS). Meanwhile, outside of markets, Hamas said its militants fired anti-tank missiles at Israel's invading forces in Gaza early on Tuesday as the conflict intensified.
Persons: Tom Westbrook, DAOU, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Treasury, Bond, Federal Reserve, U.S . Treasury Department, Samsung Electronics, Brookfield consortium, Treasury Wine Estates, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Bouygues, BASF, BP, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S, Europe, Asia, Falls, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Pacific, Japan, Australia, Gaza
Olivier Douliery | Afp | Getty ImagesAuctions of government debt, normally routine events for the Treasury Department, have suddenly become very important to financial markets. That's why an announcement Wednesday on refunding, entailing the size of auctions as well as the duration mix of the debt that will be issued, is expected to draw even more market interest. Indeed, the two entities are both pivotal in determining how the U.S. is going to manage its mammoth debt load. That symbiotic relationship will be on full display this week when the Treasury Department makes its refunding announcement Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the Fed follows with its decision on interest rates that same day at 2 p.m.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Olivier Douliery, Josh Emanuel, Emanuel, Morgan Stanley, Stanley Druckenmiller, Druckenmiller, Alexander Hamilton, Paul Tudor Jones, she's, Dhingra, Thomas Simons Organizations: Treasury, Foreign Investment, United States, Treasury Department, Afp, Getty, Federal Reserve, Duquesne Capital, Robin Hood Foundation, Jefferies Locations: Washington ,, refunding, Wilshire, U.S
NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Investors should be prepared for long-duration Treasury yields to reach 7% if the U.S. economy skirts a widely anticipated recession, Ned Davis Research warned in a note on Tuesday. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, are hovering near 16-year highs of 5% as investors price in rising U.S. federal deficits and the Federal Reserve's guidance that it will keep rates high until it is convinced that inflation is under control. Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, said the Treasury sell-off could continue if the neutral rate of interest - the rate at which monetary policy is neither contractionary nor expansionary - rises due to a prolonged expansion. "So getting comfortable with a 5% 10-year Treasury is actually quite conservative," he wrote. With the potential for a worsening Treasury market sell-off, Kalish is bullish on gold and remains slightly underweight bonds, and favors large-cap equities over small-caps, he noted.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Powell, Treasury Department's, David Randall, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Ned, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S, Treasuries
Oct 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Most talk is it will stay on hold this time, but will discuss laying the groundwork for an eventual shift. Any tweak would see Japanese yields rise and add to the pain being felt in the Treasury market, where 10-year yields nudged up to 4.87% on Monday with scant sign of any safe haven bid. Analysts at NatWest Markets expect $885 billion of marketable borrowing in Q4 and $700 billion in Q1. It is also notable that the borrowing kept climbing even though the economy surprised everyone with its strength.
Persons: Wayne Cole, It's, Eli Lilly, Luis de Guindos, Erik Thedéen, Muralikumar Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Ichi, Insurance, Reuters, Treasury, NatWest Markets, Federal Reserve, Apple, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Gaza, China
The projections prompted U.S. Treasury debt yields to fall slightly, with the benchmark 10-year yield last at 4.88%. "Interest in today's borrowing projections have been higher than normal," said Thomas Simons, money market economist at Jeffries in New York. Investors awaited the Treasury's quarterly refunding statement on Wednesday for details on which maturities will be increased as the department pursues record borrowing levels. QUARTERLY RECORDSThe reduced $776 billion borrowing estimate would still be a record for any October-December period, exceeding the $689 billion in the 2021 quarter boosted by high COVID-19 relief outlays. In the third calendar quarter of 2023, the Treasury said it borrowed $1.01 trillion and ended that period with a cash balance of $657 billion.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Thomas Simons, Jeffries, Steven Zeng, Wednesday's, Zeng, Karen Brettell, David Lawder, Daniel Burns, Davide Barbuscia, Andrea Ricci, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, Treasury, Investors, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, California, New York
The U.S. government's borrowing needs will decline slightly in the final three months of 2023 from the prior quarter, a potentially important development during a turbulent time for the global bond market. The borrowing level appeared to be somewhat below Wall Street expectations — strategists at JPMorgan Chase said they expected the announcement to be around $800 billion. Treasury yields were mostly higher. Officials attributed the lower borrowing needs to higher receipts, which were offset somewhat by greater expenses. The Treasury said it expects to borrow $816 billion during the January-through-March period, which is the government's fiscal second quarter.
Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Stocks Organizations: U.S, U.S . Department of, Treasury, JPMorgan, Reserve, Federal, CNBC
Apple shares rose 1.2% on Monday ahead of its quarterly results due after Thursday’s close, which will be closely watched after the carnage in tech stocks last week. Other Big Tech stocks also rallied Monday. Alphabet shares rose 1.9%, Meta Platforms added 2%, Microsoft gained 2.3% and Amazon increased 3.9%. McDonald’s shares also rose 1.7% on Monday after the fast-food chain beat top- and bottom-line expectations. Traders largely expect that the Fed won’t hike rates for the rest of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: New York CNN — Stocks, Dow, Jerome Powell, Thursday’s, Eli Lilly, stoking, , Tom Graff Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Federal, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Traders, Treasury Department, Treasury, Apple, Microsoft, Anheuser, Busch, Stellantis, CVS, Kraft Heinz, Pfizer, Starbucks, Investors Locations: New York
Asia stocks mull over Middle East, central bank meetings
  + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The earnings season also continues with Apple, Airbnb, McDonald's, Moderna and Eli Lilly & Co among the many reporting this week. Early on Monday, S&P 500 futures had edged up 0.3% to 4,151, while Nasdaq futures added 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.1% amid speculation the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might tweak its yield curve control (YCC) policy after its two-day policy meeting wraps up on Tuesday. The Bank of England is also expected to stay on hold this week, with markets pricing around a 70% chance it is done tightening altogether. Oil prices eased as worries about demand outweighed risks to Middle East supplies, at least for the moment.
Persons: Issei Kato, BoE, BOJ, Eli Lilly, China Evergrande, Treasuries, Goldman Sachs, reacceleration, Brent, Wayne Cole, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, Apple, Moderna, Nasdaq, HK, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Barclays, Treasury, NatWest, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Capital, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Gaza, payrolls SYDNEY, United States, Britain, McDonald's, Gaza's, Iranian, Asia, Pacific, China, Israel, East
Morning Bid: Market bounce sets up Fed-dominated week ahead
  + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. A worrying late-year stock market unwind is starkest in small-cap indexes (.RUT) now tracking year-to-date losses of some 7% - even as the benchmark S&P500 (.SPX) remains up 7% and Big Tech leaders of the Nasdaq 100 are still 30% (.NDX) higher. Annual earnings growth for S&P500 companies is now expected to have picked up to a 4.3% annual growth rate, according to LSEG estimates, from as low as 1.6% before the reporting season began. But beyond Fed policy rates, it's the restive bond market and near 16-year-high long-term borrowing costs that are starting to hurt most. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields held steady at 4.85% - well below the 5% threshold they breached last week.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, keener, Russell, China Evergrande, Simon Property, Louis, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Tech, Federal Reserve, Detroit's Big, Apple, HSBC HSBA.L, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan, China, HK, Dallas Fed, Western Digital, FMC, Arista Networks, Arch, Semiconductor, Treasury, Reuters, Louis Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, London, Europe, Hong Kong, Loews, St
A bronze seal for the Department of the Treasury is shown at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. Investors are playing close attention to this week's quarterly refunding announcement as a sharp jump in long-term Treasury yields has been partly attributed to concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit. So far this year, the Treasury has issued about $1.6 trillion of additional bills and roughly $1.04 trillion in longer-term debt. The Treasury is also likely to announce a buyback program for a possible launch in January, aimed at improving bond market liquidity, analysts said. The projected increase in longer-term deficits in the coming years, however, will keep Treasury raising auction sizes, analysts said.
Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Guneet Dhingra, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's Dhingra, Tom Simons, Zachary Griffiths, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Megan Davies, Jamie Freed Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, TD Securities, Treasury, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina
Some Wall Street banks have raised their forecasts for the amount of Treasurys to be auctioned. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are focused on the Treasury Department's upcoming quarterly refunding statement as Wall Street braces for another dose of sticker shock on US debt. After raising auction estimates in August, the department has already hinted that the Treasury supply will need to keep increasing. It's an outlook shared by Wall Street, and institutions are raising their expectations on the size of US debt issuance. AdvertisementAdvertisementJPMorgan also projected higher Treasury issuance ahead, noting that fiscal 2023's deficit surpassed its estimates by $100 billion.
Persons: , Josh Frost, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Treasury Department, Service, Treasury, Treasurys, Wall, Bank of America, JPMorgan
Now I rent out other properties using Vrbo and Airbnb. AdvertisementAdvertisementI sold the Vrbo Fiji property because it was too much to maintain. AdvertisementAdvertisementI get more bookings on Airbnb, but the guests on Vrbo are betterI've noticed that the guests who book with us on Vrbo are a bit older, and they book for longer. My findings with being on Airbnb and Vrbo are that you get the most traction where you make the most bookings. I've personally never had a problem with Airbnb refunding guests without cause, though I've heard that Airbnb doesn't have a great reputation among owners.
Persons: Elizabeth Ellington, , It's, Covid, I'm, I've, Airbnb, Jenna Gyimesi Organizations: Ellington, Service, Happy Locations: Fiji, North Carolina, Hendersonville , North Carolina, Hendersonville, jgyimesi@insider.com
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