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Over the past seven decades, the world economy has grown 14-fold, powered by a 45-fold expansion in global trade, according to the World Trade Organization. World trade as a percentage of GDP peaked at 61% in 2008. The first is rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. The retrenchment is probably going to be gradual: global trade was still worth 57% of world GDP last year. For 2024, the WTO said growth in goods trade would pick up to 3.3%, virtually unchanged from its April estimate of 3.2%.
Persons: Chris Helgren, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping “, , Caroline Freund, Aaditya Mattoo, Alen Mulabdic, Michele Ruta, Ursula von der Leyen, it’s, Laura Alfaro, Davin Chor, Dario Perkins, GlobalData’s Perkins, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Warehouse Union, REUTERS, Reuters, World Trade Organization, Economic, Reuters Graphics Reuters, HK, Amperex Technology, European Central Bank, GlobalData, Lombard, Companies, Bureau of Labor Statistics, ECB, Thomson Locations: Vancouver , British Columbia, Canada, Netherlands, United States, China, Beijing, Washington, U.S, Taiwan, Mexico, Vietnam, People’s Republic, Latin America, Chile, Brazil, Ukraine, Geneva
The central bank's quest for a "soft landing" of more slowly rising prices and continued economic growth looks increasingly probable. In fact, the U.S. may hit a sweet spot just as the 2024 presidential election campaign crescendos next year. Rather than cheering, though, after years of economic turbulence since the coronavirus pandemic erupted in 2020, Americans grumble, at least if you ask them about the economy. With fast rising prices and the end of an array of pandemic-era government benefit programs, inflation-adjusted household income fell last year, and the poverty rate increased. A Biden adviser said the White House understands that the economy and inflation are a critical issue, and the campaign has a big media push planned on "Bidenomics."
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome Powell, crescendos, grumble, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jimmy Carter's, Ronald Reagan, George H, Bush, Democrat Bill Clinton, Clinton, Biden, They've, that's, Robert Shiller, stupidly, Shiller, Powell, Howard Schneider, Trevor Hunnicutt, Heather Timmons, Paul Simao Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, . Federal, Reuters, Republican, Biden, Democrat, U.S . Consumer, Yale University, McKinsey & Company, McKinsey, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, U.S
[1/5] FILE PHOTO-A drone picture shows where the former water line was more than one KM from the present line in Pretor, at Prespa Lake, North Macedonia September 6, 2023. The decline has continued over decades - the water at Lake Prespa, which is situated high in the mountains and is 5-million-years-old, is now more than 8 metres (8.74 yards) lower than the late 1970s. With a surface area of around 260 square kilometres, more than twice the size of Paris, more than two thirds of the lake belongs to North Macedonia and the rest to Greece and Albania. Any drop in water level can affect Lake Ohrid, a much larger lake just 10 km from Prespa and which draws around one third of its water from Prespa. "All (pesticides) go in the underground waters, in the lake, they go everywhere and are very dangerous for Prespa," said Mende Pandevski, harvesting plums close to the lake.
Persons: Vasilevski, Dragan Arsovski, Mende, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: NASA, The United Nations Development Program, Macedonian Geological Society, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Pretor, Prespa, North Macedonia, Greece, Albania, Macedonia, Lake, Paris, Ohrid, Skopje
CNN —A newly discovered comet will be visible at times as it flies by Earth next week. Japanese space photographer Hideo Nishimura first observed Comet Nishimura in early August as he was taking images of the night sky, according to EarthSky. Comet Nishimura can bee seen as a faint green dot in the sky over L'Aquila, Italy, on September 7. “Unless it becomes quite a bit brighter than expected, it will likely not be visible.”What’s next for Comet NishimuraGiven how closely Comet Nishimura will pass by the sun, it’s possible the intense heat might destroy it. If you miss the chance to see Comet Nishimura, there are several comets expected to appear in the night sky in the next 16 months, Hale said.
Persons: Hideo Nishimura, Comet Nishimura, Alan Hale, Comet Hale, Bopp, Nishimura, Dr, Paul Chodas, would’ve, Hale, Chodas, Dave Schleicher, Schleicher, Manuel Romano, ” Hale, What’s, ” Chodas, Comet Pons, Brooks, Comet Olbers Organizations: CNN, Earthrise, NASA’s Center, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Lowell Observatory, Northern, Sun Locations: Pasadena , California, Arizona, L'Aquila, Italy
The Great Salt Lake has shrunk in half since 1847 due to freshwater demand and climate change. Spencer Cox earlier this year created a position and chose the first-ever commissioner of the Great Salt Lake in an effort to find solutions. AP Photo/Rick BowmerThe risks of a diminished Great Salt Lake aren't merely beached sailboats and wider beaches. AdvertisementAdvertisementAs the lake shrinks, it becomes saltierThe sun sets on the Great Salt Lake on June 15, 2023, near Magna, Utah. AdvertisementAdvertisementAlready, a pelican colony on a Great Salt Lake island has floundered after their island became a peninsula, letting in coyotes, Seed said.
Persons: Brian Moench, didn't, Rick Bowmer, Spencer Cox, Moench, Rick Bowmer Stu Gillespie, Gillespie, ____ Jesse Bedayn Organizations: Service, Utah's Republican, Utah Rivers Council, Utah Physicians, Environment, AP, Republican Gov, Chemicals, Sierra Club, Center for Biological Diversity, Associated Press, America Statehouse News Initiative, America Locations: Utah, Mississippi, Salt Lake, Magna , Utah, Salt, Marina, Lake, Earthjustice, Chile, Alaska, North America
In the nearly 12 years since a prisoner was charged in the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole warship, eight parents of the 17 fallen American sailors have died waiting for a trial to begin. Late this June, just two members of that group were there — a sailor’s father and a naval officer who survived the blast. The bombing of the Cole never garnered the attention of Guantánamo’s better-known prosecution of the five men who are accused of plotting the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. But the Cole attack came first, on Oct. 12, 2000.
Persons: Cole, Guantánamo’s Locations: U.S, Ukraine
People ride a boat through a flooded road after the rains and floods brought by remnants of Typhoon Doksuri, in Zhuozhou, Hebei province, China August 3, 2023. The vast Hai River basin covers an area the size of Poland that includes Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin. On his visit to flood storage areas in Baoding, Ni added that it was necessary to reduce the pressure on Beijing's flood control and create a "moat" for the Chinese capital. "I'd like to know, among all the people living in flood storage areas across the country, how many of them know they are living in such areas?" As of 8:00 a.m. (0000 GMT) on Friday, Hebei had relocated more than 1.54 million people, including 961,200 from flood storage areas, state media reported on Saturday.
Persons: Doksuri, Tingshu Wang, Xi Jinping, Secretary Ni Yuefeng, netizens, netizen, David Kirton, Ryan Woo, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Beijing, Hebei's Communist, Secretary, Reuters, China Water Resources, Ministry of Water Resources, Thomson Locations: Zhuozhou, Hebei province, China, BEIJING, China's, Hebei, Poland, Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding prefecture, Baoding, Xiongan, Ni, Weibo, Bazhou, Shanghai
London CNN —The euro area economy is growing again. Separately, official data showed that the overall rate of inflation continued to fall this month. The consumer price index for the euro area rose by 5.3%, down from 5.5% in June. Germany stagnated last quarter, but that was a modest improvement from the previous six months, when Europe’s biggest economy was stuck in recession. Demand for business loans in the euro area fell to a record low in the second quarter, according to a survey published by the ECB last week.
Persons: , Putin, ” Holger Schmieding, Michael Probst, Christine Lagarde Organizations: London CNN, Gross, ECB, European Central Bank Locations: Ukraine, Germany, Frankfurt
Here are 38 stocks that will revise earnings estimates higher, according to Morgan Stanley. Corporate profits are on pace to fall 9% through roughly a fifth of the Q2 earnings season, which is about 6 percentage points better than anticipated, according to Morgan Stanley. Morgan StanleyIn fact, the firm found that earnings revisions decelerated in two thirds of industries in the weeks since early July. That's cause for concern as a seasonally challenging time for revisions nears — earnings revisions breadth traditionally trends downwards in the months of July through November. Morgan Stanley expects nominal earnings and sales growth to suffer as price growth slows faster than expected, even if long-awaited interest rate cuts come.
Persons: haven't, Morgan Stanley, Ed Yardeni, Morgan, Mike Wilson, isn't, Wilson, they've
Anti-LGBTQ+ activism spiked in June, according to the monitoring group ACLED. Pride Month saw more anti-LGBTQ+ demonstrations than any other period since 2020. As the LGBTQ+ community has become increasingly visible in entertainment, politics, and corporate America, there has been an accompanying spike in anti-LGBTQ+ activism. "This new peak in our data comes after anti-LGBTQ+ demonstrations had already surged to their highest point on record by late 2022." That — visibly showing up for LGBTQ+ rights — is what Bjorn-James argues will determine whether far-right activism proliferates or recedes.
Persons: Vanderbilt, Sophie Bjork, James, ACLED, Kieren Doyle, Wesley Phelps, Hodges, there's, Phelps, It's, There's, they've, Bjork, Donald Trump —, , Bjorn Organizations: Service, University of North, Lone Star State, District of Columbia, Golden State, Vanderbilt University, Miss America, Target Locations: Wall, Silicon, America, California, United States, North America, University of North Texas, Obergefell, ACLED, Texas , New York, Golden
For twelve consecutive months, the sector has experienced net outflows – coupled with the worst May since 2009. The industry's total Wall Street exposure has fallen to the lowest in over 10 years – despite US stocks enjoying a remarkable 2023 bull run. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. "The net outflow in May 2023, while not generally large, was the largest net outflow value we've seen." "Attempting to be blunt…there was little evidence of meaningful new interest in hedge funds in May."
Persons: Peter Laurelli, Laurelli, Alison Savas Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Research, Financial Times, Antipodes Partners, Nvidia Locations: Wall, Silicon, Australia, Europe
As the water recedes, officials said the storm shows an ongoing need to adapt to the climate crisis. It was the highest level in nearly a century, when the river reached 27 feet during the Great Vermont Flood of 1927, according to local officials . Vermont Agency of Agriculture, Food and Markets via APEven as water levels recede, more rain is expected on Thursday and Friday. Some residents said the flooding was worse than Tropical Storm Irene in 2011, which at the time seemed like an anomaly in the state. About 18% of properties in Vermont are at significant risk of flooding over the next 30 years, predicts First Street Foundation .
Persons: Justin Michaels, Phil Scott, Irene Organizations: Service, Vermont Agency of Agriculture, Food, AP, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Foundation, FEMA Locations: Vermont, Wall, Silicon, Montpelier, Waterbury, Ludlow, Montpelier , Vermont
Stock markets could suffer if the United States economy sidesteps a recession that many believe is just around the corner, according to Investec equities strategist Roger Lee. Lee said the market is bracing itself for a recession within the next year, a prediction he called the "most widely forecast recession in history." Paradoxically therefore, the greatest risk to U.S. markets is if the recession risk recedes. The implications of this could potentially lead to a downturn in both equities and bond markets, according to the strategist. "Paradoxically therefore, the greatest risk to U.S. markets is if the recession risk recedes," Lee added.
Persons: Roger Lee, Lee, Investec's Lee, , treasuries, it's, Jeff Cox Organizations: HSBC, CNBC, Dow Jones, Treasury Locations: United States, U.S, London, America
Morning Bid: Dollar swoons in upbeat inflation vigil
  + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets leaned positively into another critical U.S. inflation report later on Wednesday, seeding a dollar (.DXY) slide to two-month lows that's revved-up yen and sterling gains. And June's CPI readout should be a marker if the consensus forecast for almost a full percentage-point drop in the headline inflation rate to two year lows of just 3.1% is borne out. Still, encouraged by a screed of other positive disinflation signals this week, U.S. markets are relatively buoyant going into the release and still feel the end of the Fed rate rise campaign is nigh. UK bank stocks pushed higher on the rates view and a relatively clean bill of health from Wednesday's financial stability report from the BOE. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused its long-running rate rise campaign early on Tuesday.
Persons: Mike Dolan, BOE, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester, Joe Biden, Nick Macfie Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, yearend, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Bank of, recoiling, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Canada, Japan's Nikkei, Microsoft, Activision, Richmond Federal, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Cleveland Fed, NATO, . Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Shanghai, Hong Kong, British, Vilnius
[1/3] A nurse prepares to administer the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine under the COVAX scheme against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the Eka Kotebe General Hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia March 13, 2021. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri/File PhotoLONDON, June 26 (Reuters) - Several billions of dollars left in a scheme to deliver COVID-19 vaccines to the world’s poorest could be diverted to prepare for other pandemics or to support vaccine manufacturing in Africa, the scheme's partners said. The initiative is set to wind up at the end of this year, although some of its work will continue. With demand for COVID-19 vaccines dwindling, the partners are now working out how best to use the remaining cash – a significant sum in global health – alongside the donors who originally pledged it. Another idea that has gained traction is to use some of the money to boost vaccine manufacturing in Africa, Saraka-Yao said.
Persons: drugmakers, , Marie, Ange Saraka, Gavi’s, Yao, Melinda Gates, ” Saraka, Gavi, Muhammad Ali Pate, David Marlow, Seth Berkley, Jennifer Rigby, Christina Fincher Organizations: AstraZeneca, Oxford, REUTERS, Tiksa, Gavi, Vaccine Alliance, World Health Organization, WHO, Coalition for, Reuters, Melinda Gates Foundation, Thomson Locations: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Africa, COVAX, United States, Germany, Nigeria
A 1.7% decline in Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and a 1.3% dip in Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) weighed on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. S&P 500 fell 0.36% to end the session at 4,409.77 points. Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, eight declined, led by communication services (.SPLRCL), down 1%, followed by a 0.83% loss in information technology (.SPLRCT). Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 1.4-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 24 new highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 112 new highs and 67 new lows.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, Sam Stovall, Morgan Stanley, Sruthi Shankar, Shristi, Noel Randewich, Vinay Dwivedi, Richard Chang Organizations: Microsoft, Nasdaq Adobe, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal, Richmond Fed, CFRA, University of Michigan's, Microsoft Corp, Inc, Nvidia Corp, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Adobe Inc, iRobot Corp, Micron Technology, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bengaluru, Oakland , California
This week it hit a six-month low on the dollar after surprise cuts to key China rates, putting the gap between 10-year sovereign yields in China and the U.S. at its widest since November. The position, with China's rates below those in the United States , is the reverse of more than a decade of high-growth that saw China paying better yields than markets in the west. "The People's Bank of China's tolerance of currency weakness ... also opens up room for further yuan weakness." Even if the Federal Reserve holds rates steady later on Wednesday, as expected, traders are braced for an extended period of elevated U.S. interest rates and, increasingly, for China to hold rates low or push them even lower. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the PBOC will cut the costs of medium-term loans on Thursday and many market watchers expect a benchmark lending rate cut next week.
Persons: hasn't, Morgan, J.P, Tommy Xie, Kiyong Seong, Winni Zhou, Brenda Goh, Tom Westbrook, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bond, People's Bank, People's Bank of China, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Authorities, OCBC Bank, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China, U.S, Beijing, United States, Asia, Shanghai, Singapore
London CNN —With the threat of an unprecedented US debt crisis receding fast, the global economy looks to have dodged a huge shock. While an immediate crisis has likely been avoided, the litany of problems that had been temporarily overshadowed by the specter of a US default — among them, high inflation, rising interest rates and sluggish growth — haven’t gone away. Bloomberg/Getty ImagesInflation still too highAgainst that backdrop, inflation has eased in Europe’s second biggest economy, mimicking falls in Germany, Spain and Italy. But it could still arise from two longstanding threats: the Ukraine war and the climate crisis, both of which pose risks to global supply chains and food prices. The war helped drive international food prices to an all-time high last year.
Persons: specter, haven’t, , Carsten Brzeski, , Charlotte de, Neil Shearing, Vladimir Putin, Michael Bociurkiw, Bociurkiw, Marcelo del Pozo Organizations: London CNN —, ING, Charlotte de Montpellier, Bloomberg, Getty, Data, United, Deutsche Bank, Capital Economics, Atlantic Council, Isla Mayor, ” Gro Intelligence Locations: United States, China, Germany, France, Beijing, Europe’s, Spain, Italy, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Moscow, Russian, Russia, Isla, Europe
After a woman gives birth, the baby’s well-being usually becomes the focus of family attention, and the mother’s health often recedes as a priority. But new research has highlighted the frequency with which serious pregnancy-related medical complications emerge after childbirth — often well after the mother is discharged from the hospital. When are postpartum complications most likely to occur? The first six weeks after delivery are the most dangerous; women and their partners or support teams should be particularly vigilant during the first week. But complications related to pregnancy can emerge up to a year after childbearing.
“The water then slides away, destroying everything.”What also slid away were orchards, vineyards and crops ready to harvest. A tractor goes off road after flooding outside Ravenna in the Emilia Romagna region of Italy on May 20. Emilia Romagna is one of the richest regions in Italy. Firefighters come to rescue people and recover their belongings after flooding hit the Fornace Zarattini district of Ravenna in the Emilia Romagna region of Italy on May 20. Extreme weather such as what has happened this month in Emilia Romagna is perplexing even to experts.
He told Insider what investors should buy today, and what they should buy if prices come down. Almost a year ago investors became convinced that, as the Federal Reserve began dramatically raising interest rates to contain inflation, a recession would swiftly follow. A year later, the recession still hasn't started — but there's still a great deal of confidence that one is coming any day now. Draho said that performance reflects the fact that investors think things are going to turn out fairly well. "You're going to get a better return from investment grade corporate bonds," with many high-quality bonds still yielding 5% or more.
Barclays outlined the top questions investors are asking as the S&P 500 looks stuck in a tight trading range. The S&P 500 is likely to remain rangebound in the short-term, Krishna said. Tail risks aside, markets may be lulled into thinking hurdles - just as the current earnings recession – can be cleared in record time. That scenario tilts the balance of risk toward its base case of a shallow recession base case and an S&P 500 price target of 3,725. The S&P 500 during Tuesday's session was at 4,125.
[1/5] A Ukrainian service member Oleksandr, 44, is seen in a trench at a frontline, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine April 28, 2023. REUTERS/Sofiia GatilovaON THE FRONTLINE IN DONETSK REGION, Ukraine, May 4 (Reuters) - After months of living in trenches and bunkers near Ukraine's southeastern frontlines, Artem and his fellow soldiers have lost the fear they once felt. "You no longer feel the fear that you had at the beginning," added Artem, who has been based in the eastern Donbas region for some six months. He and his comrades, mostly volunteers, rotate regularly through the trenches, four days on, four days off. "Over time, when you understand that they are all safe, it just becomes a job."
In the first quarter of 2023, net demand for loans to businesses fell the most since the end of 2008, the central bank found after polling 158 banks in the region between March 22 and April 6. “From a historical perspective, the pace of net tightening in credit standards remained at the highest level since the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2011,” the ECB said. The central bank has made clear that it won’t ease the most intense campaign of rate hikes in its history until it is certain inflation is under control. “What really matters,” she added, is that inflation recedes to the central bank’s 2% target over the medium term. “Eurozone banks are already generally tightening credit standards and terms and loan demand is decreasing,” Berenberg economist Holger Schmieding said in a note to clients.
Opinion | What Should Christians Do About Guns?
  + stars: | 2023-04-23 | by ( Tish Harrison Warren | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
More broadly, gun-related tragedies happen every day across America, including the shooting of an unarmed African American teenager last week in Kansas City, Mo. The problem of guns in America is vast and complex. In a chilling 2022 piece, The Times named our age the “era of the gun,” with gun violence as the leading cause of death among children in the United States. Studies have shown comprehensively that more guns and easier access to guns leads, inevitably, to more gun deaths, which is why America is a global outlier when it comes to rates of gun violence. To reduce gun violence in the United States, we need legal change and we need social change.
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