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Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a ‘Soft Landing’? The soft, the hard and the grayThere isn’t any standard definition of an economic soft landing. But what’s an acceptable inflation rate? On the other side, policymakers used to believe that an unemployment rate below 4 percent was basically unattainable without runaway inflation. Unless we have a really, really hard landing, the overall story of the postpandemic economy will be one of remarkable resilience.
TYING SHOELACES is a ho-hum task, but in 2023, many moneyed men have expunged that 20 seconds of tedium from their mornings. Postpandemic, C-suite sorts are padding about in slip-on shoes sophisticated enough for the boardroom yet as comfy as cashmere pajamas, according to personal stylists who cater to the one percent. Laceless footwear is “very, very popular at the moment” due to its convenience, said Milda Chellingsworth, a London stylist who counsels corporate heavyweights aged 40 to 70 from around the world. Cassandra Sethi, a Los Angeles stylist, is also fielding more requests for slip-ons from CEO types who’d rather not have to do any knotting. “Non-lace footwear is really valuable for them,” she said.
Philip Jefferson, an economist who joined the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors in May 2022, was nominated by President Biden on Friday to be its vice chair. I didn’t write about his appointment last year; his proposed elevation gives me a second chance to discuss his ideas. He became a Fed staff economist, a professor and then the vice president for academic affairs and dean of faculty at Davidson College in North Carolina. On the Board of Governors he is considered a centrist. If confirmed as vice chair, as is expected, Jefferson would become the second Black person to serve in the post, following Roger W. Ferguson Jr., who held it from 1999 to 2006.
Accounting majors in the class of 2023, the first to enter a postpandemic professional world, will find no shortage of demand for their services as the industry grapples with a scarcity of candidates. Photo: Thomas Wells/The Northeast Mississippi Daily/Associated PressGraduates entering the workforce this year who are considering careers in accounting should see plenty of demand for their services as the industry grapples with a dearth of candidates. But even so, they may find what companies are willing to pay them underwhelming, particularly given the rigorous academic and testing requirements required to follow this career path. Recruiters say experienced accountants are often moving into new roles in finance and technology. And the exodus is expected to worsen as baby boomers leave the workforce, with 75% of certified public accountants retiring or close to retiring in the next 15 years, according to the American Institute of CPAs.
Companies like Thermo Fisher reported outsize growth during the Covid-19 pandemic. Photo: yves herman/ReutersFor drug companies, Covid-19 brought financial gains that were unevenly distributed, with Pfizer making over $50 billion from pandemic-related products last year even as other pharma companies saw more modest sales boosts. By contrast, the pandemic wealth was more evenly spread for “picks-and-shovels” businesses that supply big pharma companies with products needed to manufacture drugs and vaccines.
Pharma Suppliers Are Nursing a Postpandemic Hangover
  + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( David Wainer | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Companies like Thermo Fisher reported outsize growth during the Covid-19 pandemic. Photo: yves herman/ReutersFor drug companies, Covid-19 brought financial gains that were unevenly distributed, with Pfizer making over $50 billion from pandemic-related products last year even as other pharma companies saw more modest sales boosts. By contrast, the pandemic wealth was more evenly spread for “picks-and-shovels” businesses that supply big pharma companies with products needed to manufacture drugs and vaccines.
From long lines to delays and cancellations, airports around the world have been trying to manage a postpandemic travel surge with a shortage of staff. Photo Composite: Emily SiuThe Biden administration plans new regulations that would require airlines to compensate passengers when flight times change drastically due to causes within the carriers’ control, President Biden said Monday. The rule-making would require airlines to provide compensation in addition to refunds, similar to passenger-protection measures required in the European Union, when flights are canceled or passengers endure significant delays due to airline-caused disruption. It would also require airlines to cover expenses such as overnight hotel accommodations and transportation during such significant flight disruptions—services many carriers already provide.
The Company Making Luxury Stretch Pants Feel Indispensable
  + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Rory Satran | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
The women’s work-pants hall of fame has its first postpandemic inductee: High Sport’s “Kick” cropped knit pants. The independent New York and Los Angeles brand was launched in 2021, but its luxurious, smoothing, stretchy trousers already have a zealous following. For the fashionable and well-resourced women who whisper brand names to each other in line for desk salads, or at school pickups from Pasadena’s Polytechnic to Manhattan’s Spence, these cult pants are apparently worth their $860 price tag. They’re favorites of fashion-obsessive types like Laurel Pantin and Leandra Medine Cohen, who extol their virtues in their respective newsletters. (High Sport says it very rarely gifts influencers.)
Big Tech Earnings Spark Hope That Worst Is Over
  + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( Meghan Bobrowsky | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Google eked out an operating profit for its cloud business for the first time this quarter. Photo: robyn beck/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesResults from the big tech companies have sparked investors’ hopes that the worst of the postpandemic hangover is fading, but they also show how much growth has slowed. Companies as varied as Amazon .com Inc., Google-parent Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Intel Corp. signaled to investors in recent days that the brutal slowdown in sales growth that began as people emerged from the pandemic and re-engaged with daily routines was coming to an end.
Amazon has made efforts in recent months to reduce costs and focus on profitability. Photo: Marissa Leshnov for The Wall Street JournalAmazon.com Inc. reported surging growth as it rebounded from stagnant sales after a postpandemic slowdown, but its cloud-computing business showed further signs of cooling. Stronger-than-expected performance in its advertising and international businesses was initially greeted warmly by investors.
Coal Is Too Hot to Handle—Maybe Even for Glencore
  + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Teck Resources says that its own plan for its company would mean better opportunities to maximize value for its shareholders. Glencore , one of the world’s largest coal miners and traders, wants more coal—just not in its backyard. An emerging battle for fellow coal heavyweight Teck Resources ’ assets says a lot about the curious position the black stuff finds itself occupying in the postpandemic, post-Ukraine-invasion world. Glencore is pursuing Teck Resources in a $23 billion deal that would create two new companies—one for Glencore and Teck’s merged base-metal and other assorted businesses, and another for their merged thermal, coking coal and ferroalloys businesses. The Swiss commodities giant’s initial proposal for an all-share deal, and a revised offer that sweetens the deal with $8.2 billion in cash as an alternative to shares in the combined coal company, were both rejected by the Canadian miner this month.
The Gift for a Postpandemic Era: Over-the-Top Travel
  + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( Jen Murphy | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
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Airline executives said they are optimistic about the outlook for the rest of this year. Executives from major U.S. airlines on Tuesday said they were optimistic about travel demand for the rest of the year, shaking off worries about creeping operating costs and fears of ebbing demand. Travel appetite surged last year and airlines began to make money again after losing billions of dollars during the Covid-19 pandemic. Carriers’ shares have also climbed this year, but airlines have been dogged by worries that demand will falter amid higher fares, and that rising costs of fuel and labor would dent profits.
The postpandemic reshuffle of the world’s electronics supply chain is speeding up. At the center of the change: India and Apple . Apple supplier Hon Hai Precision Industry , better known as Foxconn, plans to more than double its iPhone production at an existing plant near Chennai, India, to around 20 million units by 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported last week, and roughly triple the number of workers to as many as 100,000.
The postpandemic reshuffle of the world’s electronics supply chain is speeding up. At the center of the change: India and Apple . Apple supplier Hon Hai Precision Industry , better known as Foxconn, plans to more than double its iPhone production at an existing plant near Chennai, India, to around 20 million units by 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported last week, and roughly triple the number of workers to as many as 100,000.
The American manufacturing sector is starting to show signs of weakness after two years of strong growth, as higher interest rates and a slowdown in exports threaten production. New orders for manufactured goods contracted for the sixth straight month through February, according to surveys by the Institute for Supply Management. Manufacturing output is down 1.7% from its postpandemic peak in May 2022, according to a three-month moving average of Federal Reserve data. And the Commerce Department’s measure of civilian capital equipment orders, excluding aircraft—the building blocks of business—was down 3.4% in January from its recent high in November 2021, after adjusting for inflation.
India’s Economy Looks Shaky Under the Hood
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
India’s economy is losing steam in the one place that has been the South Asian nation’s strongest bulwark against a possible global recession: robust domestic demand. India’s economy slowed further in the December quarter, figures released this week showed, as postpandemic pent up demand ebbed and the country’s manufacturing sector continued to weaken. Asia’s third largest economy recorded year-over-year growth of 4.4% last quarter, down from 6.3% in the September quarter.
McDonald’s plans to open 3,000 new stores in China by 2025. HONG KONG—Large American companies from fast food to high-end fashion are increasing their bets on China’s consumers in anticipation of a postpandemic rebound for the world’s second-biggest economy. McDonald ’s Corp. and Starbucks Corp. are opening hundreds of new restaurants.
The Federal Aviation Administration halted flights across America in early January, paralyzing air traffic for nearly two hours. It was the first nationwide ground stop since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and shook an industry struggling to cope with a postpandemic surge in travel. The FAA blamed a contractor for unintentionally deleting computer files in an alert system, which tells pilots about restrictions and hazards along their routes.
The Federal Aviation Administration halted flights across America in early January, paralyzing air traffic for nearly two hours. It was the first nationwide ground stop since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and shook an industry struggling to cope with a postpandemic surge in travel. The FAA blamed a contractor for unintentionally deleting computer files in an alert system, which tells pilots about restrictions and hazards along their routes.
The last-minute hangout is the surprise star of our postpandemic social lives, helping to re-energize our friendships. Over the past few years, many gatherings had to be meticulously arranged in advance—and often got canceled anyway because of Covid-19 concerns. And recently, a season of swirling flu, RSV and other viruses, a ramped-schedule of postpandemic events, as well as recurring bouts of social burnout have continued to disrupt long-range plans.
Apple Inc. reported disappointing quarterly results that ended its three-year streak of sales and profit records, capping an earnings season in which the world’s biggest technology companies mostly struggled to shake off a postpandemic hangover. The iPhone maker announced its first quarterly revenue decline in nearly four years as manufacturing disruptions in China curbed its ability to deliver premium iPhones. Its results came the same day that Amazon.com Inc. reported growth that, while beating expectations, nonetheless concerned investors, because of slowdowns in its online shopping and cloud computing businesses, and Google parent Alphabet Inc. said it was hit by a broad slowdown in the digital ad market.
Louis Vuitton collaborated with Japanese artist Yayoi Kusama for a new collection. Demand for LVMH’s brands has been strong despite the pandemic and inflation. PARIS— LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 results later Thursday, as it rides a surge of demand for luxury goods that China’s recently loosened Covid-19 restrictions could extend into this year. Postpandemic demand for LVMH’s dozens of brands, including fine wine, jewelry and fashion labels and upscale hotels, has cemented the group’s position as the most valuable listed company in Europe. It has also helped its chief executive and controlling shareholder, Bernard Arnault , overtake Elon Musk as the world’s richest person.
Consumer confidence in the eurozone has recovered in recent months as the threat of energy rationing fades. Business activity in the eurozone rose in January after successive declines in the second half of last year, raising the chances that the global economy could avoid a recession this year, economists said. The unexpectedly upbeat surveys suggest that while the global economy could slow this year under pressure from high prices and interest rates, a recession appears less likely thanks to the receding threat of energy shortages in Europe and China’s postpandemic reopening.
The Year of the Rabbit is nearly here, and China’s economy, after a very tough 2022, is poised for a leap. China could grow 5% in 2023—compared with 6% in 2019 and 3% last year—and perhaps even more than that. The bull case essentially rests on the postpandemic experience of the West, and the U.S. in particular. During the worst stretches of 2020, many people stayed home and saved. In 2021, as the public health situation improved people began to spend, helping ignite an economic boom—and inflation.
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