DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ Morning Bid: Markets wary Powell may undermine rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. The disconnect between financial markets and central banks has only deepened as central banks push back against talk of rate cuts while markets take in the relatively more benign inflation data of recent weeks. That helped to embolden markets to take on rate-cut bets. Markets are now pricing in a 46% chance of the central bank cutting rates in March, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Speakers: Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Waller, Powell, Elon Musk, Megan Greene, Christine Lagarde, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Ankur, Fed, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Europe, Asia, France, UK, Germany, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: November bids adieu with inflation data, OPEC
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. With signs of turn emerging in Federal Reserve policy guidance and October PCE inflation readings set to encourage that later in the day, rate cut fever was in full flow across the Atlantic too. Headline annual inflation in the bloc fell as low as 2.4% - within arm's length of the ECB's 2% target. Later on Thursday, U.S. PCE inflation for the prior month is pencilled to fall 3.0% from 3.4% - with a core also ebbing to 3.5%. "Monetary policy is in a good place," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday, echoing comments from previously hawkish Fed governor Christopher Waller the previous day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, policymaker Fabio Panetta, Loretta Mester, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Christine Lagarde, Megan Greene, Kroger, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Italy, policymaker, U.S ., ECB, Cleveland Fed, Wall, OPEC, Dallas Fed, PMI, York Federal, Bank of England, Academy Sports, Rock Biotech, Titan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Canada, Vienna, Automotive, Duluth, BOS, Jan

☆ The economy is flashing a worrying signal that hasn't been seen since right before the 2008 crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy is flashing a worrying signal about the health of the consumer. The gap between growth of GDP and gross domestic income hasn't been this large since 2007, Macquarie said. That's evidenced by a worrying indicator, which hasn't flashed a warning this loud since right before the 2008 recession, according to Macquarie strategists. Yearly growth in gross domestic product is currently outpacing gross domestic income by the most since 2007, Macquarie said in a note. The gap between the two could also explain why Americans feel poorly about the economy despite robust GDP growth, Macquarie added.

Persons: Macquarie, —, hasn't, That's, Thierry Wizman Organizations: Service, Macquarie, Macquarie Group

☆ Stock Market Today: What's Next for Berkshire Hathaway
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell below 4.3% Wednesday, a significant level when considering where it started the month—hovering above 4.8%. This comes a day after a formerly hawkish Fed official endorsed an extended pause on rate moves. Investors are also digesting Tuesday’s death of Berkshire Hathaway titan Charlie Munger . Contracts tied to the S&P 500, Dow industrials and Nasdaq-100 each ticked up modestly. The benchmark S&P 500 is on pace to end November with its best month since July 2022.

Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, Dow, Gold, Hang Seng, ” Organizations: Treasury, Fed, Dow industrials, Nasdaq, Futures, Hormel Foods Locations: Europe, Berkshire, Asia, Hong

☆ Here's what it would take for the Fed to start slashing interest rates in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"In a different cycle, when inflation hadn't spiked so much, I think the Fed would have been cutting rates already. "If the real fed funds rate continues to go higher as I expect it will, then you'd want to offset that through rate cuts. And the amount of rate cuts I think they're going to have to do is a relatively large amount." "I think there's a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn't start cutting rates pretty soon," the head of Pershing Square Capital Management added. However, even some of the historically more dovish Fed officials aren't showing their hands on when they think cuts will come.

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Waller, Bowman, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Chris Marangi, Bill Ackman, Ackman, David Rubenstein, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Fed, Nikko Securities America, National Economic Council, CME Group, Stocks, Gabelli, Market, Pershing, Capital Management, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Richmond Locations: Washington , DC, Atlanta

☆ Markets are too optimistic about the economy, and 3 drivers behind big stock gains face headwinds, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are overly optimistic about the economy next year, Mohamed El-Erian said in a CNBC interview. Meanwhile, November's rally was driven by Goldilocks data, lower yields, and lower oil prices. According to the top economist, markets are overly optimistic about the economy next year. And thirdly, I don't think OPEC is going to stay quiet to see oil prices where they are now." AdvertisementAnd finally, falling oil prices may not sit well with OPEC+ countries, like Saudi Arabia and Russia, who have been slashing production to prop up oil prices.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, they've, I'm, Treasurys, there's Organizations: CNBC, Service, Federal, West Texas Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia

Speaking on CNBC, Boston Fed President Susan Collins also said the U.S. central bank must be "patient and resolute, and I wouldn't take additional firming off the table." Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure was 3.4% in September, down from its 7.1% peak last summer, but above the central bank's target. And he expressed increased confidence that the Fed can meet its inflation goal without the kind of rise in unemployment seen in the U.S. central bank's prior battles with inflation. Speaking on Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, one of the central bank's more hawkish policymakers, said she had not yet assessed whether she would continue to pencil in a further rate hike. Fresh economic and interest rate projections are due to be the released at the Dec. 12-13 policy meeting.

Persons: Mary Daly, Daly, Susan Collins, Collins, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Pete Schroeder, Dan Burns, Balazs Koranyi, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, San Francisco Fed, CNBC, Boston, Deutsche Bank, Chicago Fed, Fed, Cleveland Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S

Word "Oil" and stock graph are seen through magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last week crude oil production in the United States this year will rise by slightly less than previously expected while demand will fall. That is "not a prospect that crude oil will welcome given that recent data in China and the U.S. has brought growth fears back to the surface," he said. Weak economic data last week from China, the world's biggest crude oil importer, increased fears of faltering demand. Additionally, refiners in China asked for less supply from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, for December.

Persons: magnifier, Dado Ruvic, Baker Hughes, Brent, Hiroyuki Kikukawa, Jerome Powell, Tony Sycamore, Kikukawa, Yuka Obayashi, Colleen Howe, Lincoln, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal, U.S . West Texas, NS, Nissan Securities, U.S . Energy Information Administration, IG, U.S, Organization of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, United States, China, U.S, Iraq, Israel, refiners, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Stocks gain, bonds calm as Fed outlook trumps Moody's downgrade
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. Tech stocks stood out, as they had in the U.S. at the end of last week, after the calming of long-term Treasury yields since the start of this month boosted the outlook for borrowing-dependent growth shares. The U.S. dollar index hovered below its post-payrolls-report high of 106.01, reached on Friday, last trading little changed around 105.80. "But now, the Treasury market has already priced in a pause, so there's not much room for Treasury yields to fall further," removing a support for the stock market, he added. "In short, I don't think the stock market rally is going to continue."

Persons: Issei Kato, Wall, HSI, Naka Matsuzawa, Kevin Buckland Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Tech, Federal Reserve, U.S, Japan's Nikkei, Nomura Securities, Treasury, Brent, U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, U.S, United States, China, Iraq

☆ Morning Bid: Oil-fueled rally turns to Powell
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. And that's hit home by dragging U.S. pump prices down to levels not seen since March. Overall, U.S. 10-year yields remained on the back foot at 4.57% first thing and ahead of Wednesday's auction. Although Asian and European stocks fell back a bit, Wall St stock futures were unchanged before the bell. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Mike Dolan, who's, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, BoE, Ping, Donald Trump, White, Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Joachim Nagel, Walt Disney, Ralph Lauren, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Wall, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Atlanta, Fed, Chicago Fed, St, Reuters, Ping An Insurance, HK, New York Fed, Warner Bros Discovery, MGM Resorts, Biogen, Energy, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Gaza, Tokyo, Ohio, Kentucky, Brussels, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Bad news for the economy is good news for the stock market ... as long as it doesn't get too bad
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on November 02, 2023 in New York City. Friday's market reaction to the jobs report comes down to a simple premise: bad news is good news, as long as it isn't too bad. Slow, controlled growth is something the markets and the Fed are seeking in the current climate, negative growth is not. Despite market pricing, it seems like cuts aren't around the corner if recent statements from Fed officials are any indication. You could imagine a scenario where inflation is starting to settle and you want to lower real rates.

Persons: Stocks, nonfarm, Mike Loewengart, We've, Michael Arone, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Fed, Morgan Stanley's Global Investment, Markets, Traders, Group, State Street Global Advisors, Richmond Fed, CNBC PRO Locations: New York City

☆ What to expect from today’s Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

That would be the second consecutive meeting the Fed keeps rates unchanged. But that doesn’t mean the Fed is done hiking rates. Still, hawkish Fed officials — those who back a more aggressive approach to addressing inflation — believe there’s more room to raise rates. Domestic spending has continued at a strong pace and the labor market remains tight,” Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said last month in Morocco. The strong economy will likely slowDespite the Fed’s 11 rate hikes since March 2022, the US economy has displayed remarkable resilience.

Persons: Jerome Powell, “, ” Powell, Michelle Bowman, ” Luke Tilley, Powell, Banks, ”, Nela Richardson Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, hawkish Fed, ”, Labor Department, Wilmington Trust, CNN Locations: Washington, New York, Morocco, Wilmington, Israel

☆ Markets are on board with the Fed's ‘higher for longer’ policy, CNBC survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As recently as the summer, respondents had forecast rate cuts in the beginning of next year. The change can also be seen in the outlook for the fed funds rate, the central bank's benchmark for short-term lending costs. It's now forecast on average to end 2024 at 4.6%, assuming about 75 basis points of rate cuts. In June, the year-end 2024 funds rate was forecast at 3.8%, which assumed 125 basis points of cuts. Some 60% of respondents see the Fed hitting its inflation target in 2025 or sometime after that, and 19% don't believe the Fed will ever get there.

Persons: Jerome, Powell, Peter Boockvar, Robert Brusca, Troy Ludtka Organizations: CNBC, Survey, Federal Reserve, Bleakley Financial, Fed, Nikko Securities

☆ Why the Fed could be wrong — again — on its latest interest rate call
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"The Fed has never kept the target fed funds rate at peak levels for longer than nine months after a tightening cycle," Arone said. Nine months from now, at least based on history, the target fed funds rate is likely to be lower, not higher." He also sees lower rates ahead and pointed out the history of what happens with tight monetary policy. "The market is eager for lower rates or rate cuts. If the Fed has to rate cuts, it's likely because we're in recession or something in the capital markets is broken," he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, aren't, Michael Arone, Powell, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Arone, Barry Sternlicht, —, I'm, They've, Thomas Ryan, Nick Elfner, Elfner, Breckinridge, Street's Arone Organizations: Federal, U.S, SPDR, State Street Global Advisors, Fed, JPMorgan, Starwood Capital, Future Investment Initiative, Capital Economics, Breckinridge Capital Advisors Locations: United States, Saudi Arabia, U.S, Breckinridge

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble shares 3 warning signs that the economy is crumbling despite upbeat data, putting stocks at risk of further downside
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is up 7.6% year-to-date. Only about 40% of analyst ratings changes for S&P 500 companies are upgrades. While the S&P 500 is up over 7% this year, Edwards cited it as another data point covering up the economy's true health. Their outsized contribution to the index's performance is evidenced by the returns of the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, Edwards said, which is down by 5% this year. In the equal-weighted index, each individual S&P 500 constituent's performance impacts the overall index's performance the same.

Persons: Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, Freddie Kruger, —, Russell Organizations: Generale Chief Global, Societe Generale They're, Societe Generale, National Federation for Independent, Institute, Supply, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, RBC Capital Markets

☆ Soaring Treasury yields threaten long-term performance of US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

This year’s climb in Treasury yields is changing that calculus, as government bonds offer income that is viewed as risk-free to investors who hold them to term. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed about a full percentage point since then. The term premium is the added compensation investors expect for owning longer-term debt and is measured using financial models. Stocks have averaged a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 over the last 10 years, while the term premium has averaged -0.3%. That compares with a historical average forward P/E of 15.6 and a term premium of 1.4% since 1985.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Quincy Krosby, Elon Musk, John Lynch, Lynch, LSEG, Matthew Miskin, Keith Lerner, ” Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Dan Burns, Ira Iosebashvili, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Soaring U.S, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, . Treasury, BofA Global Research, LPL, Comerica Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, John Hancock Investment Management, UBS Global Wealth Management, Advisory, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Gulf bourses drop amid hawkish Fed tone, Mideast conflict
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-22 | by ( Md Manzer Hussain | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 22 (Reuters) - Stock markets in the Gulf fell on Sunday amid warnings of possible further interest rate hikes from the U.S Federal Reserve, and worries of escalation in the Middle East conflict. Monetary policy in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is usually guided by Fed policy decisions because most regional currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) was down for a third consecutive session, ending 1.5% lower, with all sectors in the red. Elm Company (7203.SE) dropped 2.3%, while Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), the world's largest Islamic bank by assets, slipped 2.1%. The Qatari index (.QSI) fell for a fifth straight session, ending 0.9% lower, with Industries Qatar (IQCD.QA) dropping 2.2% and Qatar Navigation (QNNC.QA) sliding 3%.

Persons: Joe Biden, Hamad I Mohammed, Jerome Powell, Talaat Mostafa, Md Manzer Hussain, David Holmes Organizations: Bahrain Bourse, U.S, REUTERS, Stock, U.S Federal Reserve, Gulf Cooperation Council, U.S ., Elm Company, Al Rajhi Bank, Industries Qatar, Qatar Navigation, Qatar National Bank, Eastern Co, Gaza, Thomson Locations: Bahrain, Manama, Saudi, Israel, Lebanon, Syria

☆ The stock market's volatility indicator is signaling a trough in the S&P 500
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market's volatility gauge is signaling a trough in the S&P 500. Futures for the CBOE Volatility Index indicated more uncertainty about the near term than longer term. Futures contracts tied to the volatility index, also known as the VIX, track the expected amount of market volatility down the line. It speaks to more anxiety about where the stock market is headed amid recession angst, the bond market rout, and mushrooming geopolitical risk. In September, the volatility index was trading at post-pandemic lows, signalling a strong bull market and fizzling recession fears.

Persons: —, Torsten Sløk Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Apollo Locations: Israel

☆ Morning Bid: To 5% and beyond, bond yields soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The company earnings picture, meantime, was mixed to sour over the past 24 hours in both the U.S. and Europe. Despite decent demand at a typically awkward 20-year bond auction on Wednesday, yields continued to spiral higher overnight and ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's key speech later on Thursday. The upshot of all factors has seen Treasury yields climb ever higher through the night - with two-year and 20-year yields , now both above 5.25%, the latter at a record high and the former the highest since 2006. Ten and five-year tenors also saw yields soar to within a hair's breadth of 5% early on Thursday too. The ructions in the bond market and incoming earnings saw Wall St indexes (.SPX), (.NDX) hit their lowest in 10 days on Wednesday and futures were in the red again ahead of the open today.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Republican Jim Jordan, Blackstone, Philip Morris, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Patrick Harker, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, U.S, Netflix, Republican, Bank of Japan, Mortgage Bankers Association, HK, Fifth Third Bancorp, Philip Morris , Union Pacific, CSX, Truist Financial, American Airlines, Alaska Air, Philadelphia Fed, U.S . Federal, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, Housing, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Washington, Venezuela, Europe, Frankfurt, Freeport, McMoRan, China

☆ Economists think odds of a recession in the next year have fallen below 50%. This chart shows how consensus has changed over 18 months.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Goldman Sachs' 12-month recession probability is hovering at 15%, about the "historical unconditional average." A WSJ survey showed the consensus probability of a downturn in the next year dipped below 50% for the first time since mid-2022. Here's how recession expectations have changed over the last 18 months. The consensus among Wall Street economists has shifted again, tilting further in favor of the no recession camp, at least in the near to medium-term. AdvertisementAdvertisement"That model implies larger effects of monetary policy and faster policy transmission than other empirical models," the economists explained in September.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, That's, Goldman, Stefania D'Amico, Thomas King Organizations: Service, Street, Journal’s, Economic, Goldman Sachs Investment, Chicago, Consumer, Index

☆ Dollar drifts as investors eye Powell speech, yen wobbles near intervention zone
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen was pinned close to the key 150 per dollar level, keeping traders on edge for any signs of intervention by the Japanese authorities. The yen last fetched 149.62 per dollar, having slipped to 150.17 on Oct. 3, the weakest in a year, before getting some relief in a brief rally. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, eased 0.038% to 106.20, after dropping 0.36% on Monday. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said on Monday the central bank should not create new pressures in the economy by increasing the cost of borrowing. Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC, said the dollar is likely caught in a range for now.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Powell, Masato Kanda, Israel's shekel, Charu, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Harker, Christopher Wong, Wong, Ankur Banerjee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Swiss, Palestinian, Hamas, Saxo, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Reserve Bank of Australia's, News Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, East, Singapore, Australia's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Hawkish Fed? Hot PPI? Investors shrugged
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Chen Mengtong | China News Service | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineInvestors shrugged off Fed minutes that tilted hawkish and a hotter-than-expected PPI report to give markets a fourth consecutive winning session. Unfortunately, the U.S. PPI report came in surprisingly hot, rising 0.5% for September compared with the expected 0.3%. It's true the PPI report focuses on producer prices, while the Fed tends to scrutinize the consumer side of the equation more.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Chen Mengtong, Derek Schug, weren't fazed, Treasurys Organizations: Federal, Market, China News Service, CNBC, U.S, PPI, Fed, CPI, today's, Kestra Investment Management, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Washington ,

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Investors shrugged off a hawkish Fed and hot PPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineInvestors shrugged off Fed minutes that tilted hawkish and a hotter-than-expected PPI report to give markets a fourth consecutive winning session. Unfortunately, September's PPI report came in surprisingly hot. It's true the PPI report focuses on producer prices, while the Fed tends to scrutinize the consumer side of the equation more. Investors could be feeling defiant — or wanting to seize the opportunity to snap up stocks at relatively cheaper prices — after September's stocks slump.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Ryan Collerd, Derek Schug, weren't fazed, Treasurys Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, PPI, Fed, CPI, today's, Kestra Investment Management, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: York , Pennsylvania

☆ The CPI trade: Here's where JPMorgan sees the market going, based on these scenarios
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"This would be the Goldilocks Scenario," JPMorgan wrote. This could lead to the S & P 500 rallying between 1% and 1.5%. This outcome could pull the S & P 500 down in a range of 1.5% to 2%. "Another tail-risk outcome where some of the most interesting moves could come from the bond market," JPMorgan wrote. JPMorgan expects the S & P 500 to jump 1.5% to 2%.

Persons: Dow Jones, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, CPI Locations: U.S

Yet increasingly, euro area specific factors, particularly exposure to higher oil prices, risk further weakness in an already stagnating economy, and the single currency. The euro is especially vulnerable to rising oil prices, with net imports accounting for over 90% of oil products available in the European Union. "High oil prices are weighing on the euro area's terms of trade, and if oil prices move above $100 per barrel to $110 per barrel we think it will be difficult for the euro to avoid parity," said Nomura's G10 FX strategist Jordan Rochester. But it also lifts price pressures through higher import costs, compounding the impact from higher oil prices. "Definitely the euro zone is not in a good place right now," said Moec, adding that he did not rule out a euro move to parity.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jordan, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt, Francesco Pesole, Athanasios, Gilles Moec, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John, Yoruk, Christina Fincher Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, European Union, OPEC, Barclays, European Central Bank, ECB, ING, Germany, Bank of America, AXA Investment, Thomson Locations: Jordan Rochester, United States, ITALY, Italy, U.S, London, Amsterdam

Search resuls for: "hawkish Fed"

25 mentions found