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Market bears calling for a 60% crash in the S&P 500 could soon be proven correct, Milton Berg said. The technical analyst said that stocks may be close to a final peak as speculation runs hot. Berg warned a recession appears likely based on several economic indicators that are flashing red. AdvertisementStocks might crash up to 60%, a recession seems likely, and market speculation has reached dangerous levels, a veteran technical analyst warned. AdvertisementBerg, a former advisor to elite investors like George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, now runs Milton Berg Advisors.
Persons: Milton Berg, Berg, , they've, John Hussman, Jeremy Grantham, who's, George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller Organizations: Service, Milton Berg Advisors, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Netflix Locations: Milton
The Leading Economic Index fell for the 22nd consecutive month in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The Leading Economic Index brings all of those together to gauge the future state of the economy across multiple dimensions, from growth and unemployment to consumer demand and homebuilding. Here's a screenshot showing the index's historic decline, from The Conference Board's latest release:AdvertisementThe Leading Economic Index has consistently declined ahead of previous recessions. There's no guarantee these four market veterans are right about the Leading Economic Index.
Persons: , Here's, joblessness, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Jeremy Grantham, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gary Shilling, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Conference Board, Treasury, Manufacturers, Institute, Supply, The Conference, Board, Rosenberg Research, North, DoubleLine, Conference Locations: North American
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we're looking at why side hustles are all the rage these days . Call it “overemployed light,” but working side jobs for some extra income is en vogue, especially for young people. For as much energy as they put into eliciting change, they also view their job as… just a job.
Persons: , I've, Andrew Hollenhorst, we’re, hasn’t, Gen Zer, Jackie Mitchell, Mitchell, Business Insider’s Madison Hoff, Michell isn’t, Zers, don’t, Z, Eve Upton, Clark, Keida Dervishi, Jeremy Grantham, ” Grantham, Riley Wealth's Paul Dietrich, Bryan Erickson, Craig Hastings, Isabel Fernandez Pujol, Oppenheimer, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Citi, Boston Globe, Labor, Getty, Netflix, Walmart Locations: California, TikTok, New York, London
Jeremy Grantham warned US stocks and the economy are headed for trouble. The elite investor and market historian said the AI frenzy is a bubble that's bound to burst. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . "Please be advised, the rest of the world is looking with amazement at the US, the US economy, the US stock market," he said. It's worth emphasizing that the US stock market and economy have defied Grantham's warnings of crashes and recession for several years now, and might well continue to do so.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, , you've, it's Organizations: Service, Exchange, Nvidia, Microsoft Locations: Miami, Ukraine, Gaza
A lower-cost way to play the S&P 500's run to 5,000
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
The S & P 500 once again closed at a new all-time high, achingly close to 5,000 for those enamored of nice round numbers. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year Is there an option trade we can use if we're not sure? If S & P earnings grow closer to their historical average, then $240ish (let's stick to round numbers) might be a more accurate estimate. $240 a shares multiplied by 20 = $4,800 in the S & P. So in that context 5,000 is a little rich, but not much. The VIX Index , a measure of 30 day volatility in the S & P 500, is below 13, cheaper than usual.
Persons: we're, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Krugmans, aren't Organizations: Investors, Nvidia Locations: China, U.S
These findings, published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change, are alarming but also controversial. Other scientists say the study contains too many uncertainties and limitations to draw such firm conclusions and could end up confusing public understanding of climate change. Researchers say the results also suggest global temperature could overshoot 2 degrees of warming by the end of the decade. Changing that baseline would mean the world has already warmed at least 1.7 degrees (scientists say long-term global warming currently stands at between 1.2 to 1.3 degrees). Whatever the baseline for measuring global warming, what remains clear, experts say, is that the impacts will worsen with every fraction of a degree of warming.
Persons: ” Malcolm McCulloch, Gavin Schmidt, , Gabi Hegerl, Yadvinder Malhi, It’s, Amos Winter, Joeri Rogelj, , Winter Organizations: CNN, University of Western, NASA, University of Edinburgh, Environmental, Institute, University of Oxford, Indiana State University, Grantham Institute, Imperial College London Locations: Puerto Rico, Caribbean, Paris, University of Western Australia
US stocks are heavily overvalued, a recession is coming, and AI is overhyped, Jeremy Grantham said. Stocks would have plunged another 20% or 30% in 2023 if not for the AI craze, the investor said. Grantham said he's worried about foreign wars, especially when asset prices are at record highs. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy .
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Stocks, Grantham, he's, Organizations: Service, Nasdaq Locations: Grantham, Ukraine, Japan
"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.
Persons: , Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan
“Anybody who understands the physics knows that.”Hansen’s words have heft — he is widely credited as the first scientist to publicly sound the alarm on climate change in the 1980s. Climate change is fueling storms in both the summer and winter. The year came within a whisker of breaching 1.5 degrees, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “For all practical purposes we are only going to be looking at 1.5 degrees in the rearview mirror,” he said. Why 1.5 mattersFew scientists will dispute that the world faces a daunting path to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.
Persons: James Hansen, Lauren Owens Lambert, I’ve, Jim, , Michael Mann, Hansen, Friederike Otto, , it’s, Niño, Hurricane Idalia, Joe Raedle, ” Otto, , Storm Daniel, Karim Sahib, Bill McGuire, ” McGuire, Chris Smith, El Niño, Mann, Samantha Burgess, Copernicus, Otto said, ’ ” Smith, “ we’ve, McGuire, Otto Organizations: CNN, Getty, University of Pennsylvania, Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, , United, Hurricane, University College London, University of Leeds Locations: Hampton , New Hampshire, AFP, United States, Europe, Tarpon Springs , Florida, Paris, Libya's, Derna, kilter
He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, , Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI
One of the newest and fastest-growing weapons in the fight against global warming is technology to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, known as direct air capture. Direct air capture is already a growing business, and governments around the world are adding to it, providing tax incentives and grants to help spur the industry forward. Some of the first firms to do it, such as Climeworks and Carbon Capture, use massive fans in the process. Similar to other direct air capture companies, Avnos is benefiting from both government tax credits and direct funding. In addition to JetBlue Ventures, Avnos is backed by Shell Ventures, the Grantham Foundation's Neglected Climate Opportunities Fund and Rusheen Capital Management.
Persons: it's, Will Kain, Avnos, Kain, Amy Burr Organizations: JetBlue Ventures, Avnos, Shell Ventures, Rusheen Capital Management, CNBC PRO Locations: California, Grantham, VCs
On Monday, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, energy minister and the key climate negotiator, for the kingdom, was a no-show at the Saudi Green Initiative. "The climate finance that they have pledged at this COP28 is simply not enough," said Pakistani activist Zaigham Abbas, whose country was devastated last year by widespread flooding. Elsewhere, France and Japan said they would support a move by the African Development Bank to leverage IMF Special Drawing Rights for climate and development. This year also features the biggest-ever representation of business at the annual U.N. summit, amid hopes for more private investment toward climate causes. "The scale of the climate crisis demands urgent and game-changing solutions from every industry," COP28 President Ahmed Al-Jaber said.
Persons: COP28, Johanna Geron, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, Nicholas Stern, Mia Mottley, Antonio Guterres, Zaigham Abbas, Abu Dhabi, Ahmed Al, Jaber, Simon Jessop, Maha El, Al Sayegh, Alexander Cornwell, Elizabeth Piper, David Stanway, Katy Daigle Organizations: of, European Union, REUTERS, Companies, Saudi, United, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Green Initiative, Crown, Grantham Research, Asian Peoples ' Movement, Development, African Development Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, BlackRock, HSBC, Finance, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Dubai, Brussels, Belgium, Companies UAE, DUBAI, COP28, United Arab, Saudi Arabia, Sharm el, Sheikh, Egypt, Paris, China, Grantham, Barbados, France, Japan, Copenhagen, Abu
[1/3] A general view shows Marathon Petroleum's refinery, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Anacortes, Washington, U.S., March 9, 2022. Higher carbon taxes - including levies on emissions from the maritime and aviation sectors - should be among options COP28 studies, the panel recommended. Subsidies for fossil fuels totalled $1.3 trillion, and substantially more if counting the societal cost of dealing with emissions and pollution. Co-chair Nicholas Stern, professor at LSE/Grantham Research Institute, said there was a compelling case for energy companies to make voluntary contributions. "I think that moral obligation is something that will be emphasised at COP28, and indeed before and after," he said.
Persons: David Ryder, Amar Bhattacharya, Vera Songwe, Nicholas Stern, Mark John, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Summit, United Arab, Brookings, Center, Sustainable Development, Investments, World Bank, LSE, Grantham Research Institute, Aviation, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Anacortes , Washington , U.S, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Paris, COP28, China
In a 2022 Pew survey covering 19 countries in North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, climate change was named the top global threat. Aira UK“There is no trade-off between (installing a heat pump), saving the planet and at the same time saving the pockets of consumers,” CEO Martin Lewerth told CNN. “If you’re living outside Scandinavia and you want a heat pump, it’s not a hassle-free experience,” Lewerth acknowledged. “There is no scenario in which delay is the cheaper option with climate change,” said Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the LSE. “If we’d invested more in renewable energy… energy bills wouldn’t have gone up so much, which disproportionately impacted on poor households,” Valero at the LSE told CNN.
Persons: , ” Brett Meyer, Tone, Tony Blair, ” Langengen, Meyer, Anna Valero, Keith Mayhew, Oliver Blume, doesn’t, Rishi Sunak, Kelley, Martin Lewerth, Sunak, ” Lewerth, , Bob Ward, we’d, ” Valero, Tim Jackson Organizations: London CNN, Times Radio, Tony, Tony Blair Institute for Global, Pew, London School of Economics, Political Science, CNN, HSBC, carmakers, Volkswagen, Grantham Research, LSE, , Swiss, Confederation of British Industry, Centre, Prosperity, University of Surrey Locations: London, Europe, North America, Asia, Pacific, Greece, United Kingdom, United States, Germany, , Norway, Sweden, Aira, Essex, Swedish, Britain, Scandinavia, Grantham, Ukraine
The GMO US Quality ETF (QLTY) launched on November 12, and as its name implies, the fund seeks to offer investors exposure to so-called quality stocks through an actively managed approach. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. "At GMO, internally we also talk about intrinsic value, which is adjusting for growth and quality," Hancock said. The aerospace business manufactures and re-services airplane engines, and the continued resurgence in global demand for travel following the pandemic bodes well for the business, Hancock said. While the timing of the ETF release is not related to Grantham's call, Hancock said quality stocks are typically more defensive in a recessionary environment.
Persons: Tom Hancock, Hancock, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham Organizations: Business, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Electric, GE
Economic models buckle under strain of climate reality
  + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
But detractors say those numbers are the product of economic models that are not fit to capture the full extent of climate damage. A year earlier, the Trump administration cited similar models to justify replacing the Obama-era Clean Power Plan with one allowing higher emissions from coal-burning plants. At issue are the "integrated assessment models" (IAMs) economists use to draw conclusions on anything from output losses to financial risk or the pricing of carbon markets. Line chart with data from Climate Tracker shows varying predictions of global warming damage as percentage of GDP. "Our main message is: 'Economists, speak to climate scientists and come up with results that make sense'," he said.
Persons: William Nordhaus, Trump, Obama, Isabel Schnabel, Leon Walras, doesn't, Thierry Philipponnat, Steve Keen, Nordhaus, Rupert Thorne, Livio Stracca, Jean Boissinot, Nicholas Stern, Stern, Watch's Philipponnat, Mark John, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Central Bank, Finance Watch, Reuters, Network, Greening, " University College of London, ECB, NGFS, LSE, Grantham Research Institute, European Union, Thomson Locations: Dubai, Paris, Brussels
Nearly one-fourth of that was built through real estate equity. With less pressure from interest rates, they can take advantage of the current real estate market, too. They're also in the perfect position to help themselves by taking advantage of the current real estate market. However, boomers can make stronger bids on homes for sale because of their savings and real estate equity. AdvertisementMeanwhile, more than one-third of house purchases in September were all-cash, according to the real estate broker RedFin.
Persons: , They're, Jessica Lautz, RedFin, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Brigade, Census Bureau, Federal, Rosenberg Research, North, Federal Reserve Locations: North American
Legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham is betting on a special caliber of stocks with his firm's first active ETF: the GMO U.S. Quality ETF. "There's a lot more interest in active ETFs than there was even a few years ago," Hancock told CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week. According to GMO's website, as of November 17th, the ETF's top holdings include Microsoft , UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson . "These are battleship companies that are going to remain relevant and important going forward." Shares of UnitedHealth are virtually flat while Johnson & Johnson is down more than 15%.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Tom Hancock, Hancock, CNBC's, Johnson Organizations: Quality, Microsoft, Johnson
Jeremy Grantham's investment firm is taking its first steps to enter the world of exchange traded funds, debuting a new offering modeled on one of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo's crown jewel mutual funds. The GMO U.S. Quality ETF (QLTY) launched last Wednesday, marking the investment firm's first ETF. The new ETF will be managed by the same team that helms GMO Quality III mutual fund ( GQETX ). The QLTY ETF should see a similar turnover rate of around 20% to what the mutual fund has, he added. Jeremy Grantham, GMO's chief investment strategist, is not directly involved in the new ETF.
Persons: Jeremy, Van, Tom Hancock, Hancock, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Quality, helms, Morningstar, Microsoft, General Electric Locations: Grantham, Mayo
Britain solves half of its wind power problem
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( George Hay | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
REUTERS/Andrew Boyers Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Maybe UK wind isn’t a busted flush after all. Britain needs 50 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind by 2030, against 14 GW completed now and around 13 GW in development. It will also increase by 52% for floating offshore wind projects, from 116 pounds per MWh to 176 pounds per MWh. In AR6, offshore wind will also be given a separate funding pot in recognition of the high number of projects ready to participate. The UK aims to deliver 50 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind by 2030, including up to 5 GW of floating offshore wind.
Persons: Andrew Boyers, Sweden’s Vattenfall, Jefferies, Denmark’s, LCPDelta, Neil Unmack, Streisand Neto Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Jefferies, Grantham Research, Thomson Locations: Watchfield, Swindon, Britain, British
REUTERS/Nicholas Roberts/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 13 (Reuters) - GMO LLC, the asset management firm co-founded by veteran investor Jeremy Grantham, will launch its first exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Wednesday. Holdings in GMO's quality stock-focused mutual funds include companies like Microsoft (MSFT.O), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Apple (AAPL.O). About 22% of all inflows into ETFs this year have been to active ETFs, which represent only 7% of total ETF assets, according to Todd Sohn, an ETF analyst at Strategas. The fund will be managed by Tom Hancock, who has been running a $7.9 billion mutual fund with a similar focus, the GMO Quality III , since 2009. The GMO launch is the second steered to market by the Goldman Sachs ETF Accelerator, which offers asset managers consulting advice on each stage of the launch process.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Nicholas Roberts, Johnson, Todd Sohn, Tom Hancock, Goldman Sachs, Hancock, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Pace University, REUTERS, Quality, Holdings, Microsoft, Apple, CFRA Research, Goldman, Thomson Locations: Oxford, New York
A temperature display reading 99 degrees Fahrenheit (37.2 degrees Celsius) in Houston, Texas, on June 21, 2023. “October 2023 has seen exceptional temperature anomalies, following on from four months of global temperature records being obliterated,” Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, said in a statement. Every month since June has smashed monthly heat records and every month since July has been at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The year to-date is averaging 1.43 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to Copernicus — perilously close to the internationally agreed ambition to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. China saw more than 12 monthly temperature records broken on Monday, with temperatures reaching 34 degrees Celsius (93 Fahrenheit) in some places.
Persons: ” David Reay, Niño, ” Andrew Pershing, , Chen Chen, Samantha Burgess, Copernicus, ” Hannah Cloke, Hurricane Otis, ” Reay, it’s what’s, Friederike Otto, , “ El Niño, ” Pershing, ” CNN’s Robert Shackelford, Sara Tonks, Brandon Miller Organizations: CNN, University of Edinburgh, Climate, University of Reading, Hurricane, Southern, Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, UN Locations: Edinburgh, India, United States, South, Southwest, Houston, Iceland, Lesotho, Houston , Texas, Xinhua, Southern Mexico, China, Texas, Dubai, Paris
Rome, Italy CNN —At least six people have died in Tuscany, according to the region’s president, after torrential rain and strong winds from Storm Ciarán swept northern and central Italy overnight Thursday. A man walks in the mud in Montemurlo, near Prato, after torrential rain hit the area, on November 3, 2023. It asked people to leave nearby areas and remove vehicles near river banks. Helicopters, land vehicles, water pumps, buses and also the Comsubin [submarine search vehicles] for search and rescue activities,” he said in a statement Friday morning. Storm Ciarán has pummeled parts of western Europe since Wednesday night with strong winds and torrential rain.
Persons: Storm Ciarán, Eugenio Giani, Giani, Federico Scoppa, Arno, Guido Crosetto, , Olivier Véran, Friederike Otto, CNN’s Laura Paddison, Pierre Bairin, James Frater, Delal Mawad, Eve Brennan Organizations: Italy CNN —, Storm, Getty, CNN, Defense, Armed Forces, Belgium —, Grantham Institute, Imperial College London Locations: Rome, Italy, Tuscany, Veneto, Prato, Florence, Montemurlo, AFP, Pontedera, Pisa, Milan, Como, Sardinia, Lazio, Europe, France, Belgium
Paris CNN —Storm Ciarán has brought hurricane-strength winds to France, the Channel Islands and southern England, leaving more than a million people without access to electricity and forcing hundreds of schools to close. Waves crashing on the Phare du Four in Porspoder, western France, on November 2, 2023, as Storm Ciarán reached the region. Fallen trees and electricity pylons uprooted by the storm were to blame for the cuts. A tree brought down by Storm Ciarán overnight blocking the road at Castle Hill on November 2, 2023 in Falmouth, Cornwall, England. Storm Ciarán follows less than two weeks after Storm Babet, which brought strong winds, heavy rainfall and flash flooding to parts of Scotland and northern and central England, killing several people.
Persons: Paris CNN —, Ciarán, Storm Ciarán, Damien Meyer, Enedis, Hugh Hastings, Ben Birchall, Storm Babet, , Friederike Otto, Angela Dewan Organizations: Paris CNN, Channel, Getty, French Transport, Clément, Franceinfo, Isles, Islands, Storm, Met, Met Office, Grantham Institute, Imperial College London Locations: France, England, Finistère, Porspoder, Brittany, Clément Beaune, Jersey, Cornwall, English, Castle Hill, Falmouth , Cornwall, Somerset, Scotland
UK's household wealth dropped due to rising interest rates, with regions like Scotland hit hardest. The US faces a similar risk with many Americans' wealth tied up in home equity and retirement accounts. Decline in UK household wealth since the start of 2022. Scotland, Wales, and the North of England had the biggest drops of 24% to 26% in total household wealth. Similar factors are seen in the USThe factors leading to declining household wealth in the UK cast a long shadow over the US.
Persons: , Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, Daniel Bustamante, boomers Organizations: Service, Bank of England, Foundation, Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer Finances, Treasury, Brigade, Bustamante, Co Locations: Scotland, Wales, England, East, North
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