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☆ How Modi can grab India’s geopolitical “moment”
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

India is in a geopolitical sweet spot because of growing tension between the United States and China. The hard-nosed realpolitik view is that this doesn’t matter as India and the United States have a common threat. This matters for India’s economic future, as geopolitical considerations are increasingly driving global commerce. The United States is encouraging this process through what it calls “friendshoring”. Modi can do a lot to make the most of India’s geopolitical opportunity.

☆ TSMC founder says he supports US efforts to slow China's chip advances
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Sarah Wu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/3] Morris Chang, the founder of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), speaks on stage during a Chip War book event in Taipei, Taiwan March 16, 2023. In Taiwan, TSMC, Asia's most valuable listed company and a major Apple Inc (AAPL.O) supplier, is widely regarded as the "sacred mountain protecting the country," because of its economic importance. U.S. "onshoring" and "friendshoring" efforts to boost chip manufacturing stateside or in allied countries present a predicament for Taiwan. TSMC is expanding its global production footprint, even as it keeps its most advanced technology in Taiwan. Meanwhile, the Chinese government is plowing billions into bolstering its chip sector, but Chang said China's chip manufacturing technology lags that of Taiwan by "at least five or six years".

For many economists, globalization appears to have stalled after three decades of low inflation, easy credit, China's integration into the world economy and a relatively peaceful period. As a share of global GDP, trade likely increased from the previous year's 57% and exports as per World Bank data. It is not really evident in the data," Nicita says, estimating that global trade grew by about 3% last year, at a pace similar to the global economy. "Trade and globalization are not on the wane, but they are changing," she told the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum in November, citing growth in service- and digital-based trade. UNIPOLAR V MULTIPOLARThis 'regionalization' will continue assuming Beijing's economic, trade and financial ties to the U.S. gradually loosen.

☆ A post-Erdogan Turkey could come in from the cold
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The six-party coalition challenging the ruling AK Party plans to stamp out inflation, which official figures put at 58%. The six-party coalition should probably do this pre-emptively to gain extra economic credibility, though it seems unlikely to do so. These have soared following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, as some Western goods now go to Russia via Turkey. Nathalie Tocci, a former special adviser to two EU foreign policy supremos, shares this view. But it is not too early to think about how to bring Turkey in from the cold if he loses.

☆ Economic war with China would be MAD
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Hopefully, fear of the economic equivalent will do a similar trick when it comes to a showdown with China. To see whether MAD will be enough to prevent war between America and China, look at just how disastrous such a conflict – which could be triggered by a Chinese invasion of Taiwan - would be. THREE SCENARIOSA Chinese invasion of Taiwan would lead to economic repercussions of a totally different order. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be hellish, but some scenarios would be especially ghastly from an economic perspective. Despite all these concerns, America might run the risk of economic war.

☆ Green subsidy race may be what the world needs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Elsewhere carbon taxes are low and patchy, as in China, or virtually non-existent, as in the United States. RACE TO THE TOPThat said, the prospects for combating climate change are much better now that America is throwing money at green technologies. Competition between China, the United States and the EU to supply this kit will also benefit consumers in other parts of the world. The United States could align its green subsidies with its “friendshoring” plan, which aims to build up supply chains in friendly countries. Even with such supporting policies, a global green subsidy race will remain a second-best option.

☆ Important for U.S. to build up 'technology ecosystems' in like-minded nations, says think tank
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailImportant for U.S. to build up 'technology ecosystems' in like-minded nations, says think tankStephen Ezell of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation discusses the technological competition between the United States and China and the role that "friendshoring" can play.

☆ Intel is becoming accidental ad for friendshoring
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Robert Cyran | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Its plan to catch up to rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW) in technology and manufacturing prowess, always ambitious, now looks implausible. If the U.S. government is keen to nurture a domestic chip industry, Intel is becoming an accidental advertisement for friendshoring. And as the building of data centers has cooled, revenue at the Intel unit that makes chips for them declined 33%. The bigger problem for Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger is that its chief rival TSMC is still making strides, and producing smaller chips, at just 3 nanometers. Intel estimated first-quarter revenue would be between $10.5 billion and $11.5 billion.

☆ Yellen lauds Ford's 100-year history in South Africa, flags more investments
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Siphiwe SibekoSILVERTON, South Africa, Jan 26 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday lauded the Ford Motor Co's 100-year history of assembling vehicles in South Africa and underscored Washington's resolve to expand trade ties with countries that it "can count on," including South Africa. About 600 U.S. companies operate in South Africa, employing about 220,000 people and generating revenue equivalent to about 10% of South Africa's entire gross domestic product, U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety said at the event. As in her comments to South Africa's finance minister earlier on Thursday, Yellen did not address South Africa's refusal to take sides over Russia's war in Ukraine or Washington's concern over military exercises it plans with China and Russia. That includes our many trusted trading partners on this continent — like South Africa."

☆ Davos 2023: Key takeaways from the World Economic Forum
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/4] NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Poland's President Andrzej Duda and Canada's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland take part in the World Economic Forum session on "Restoring Security and Peace. REUTERS/Arnd WiegmannDAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Global leaders and business executives departed a freezing World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting on Friday after a frank exchange of views over how the world will tackle its biggest issues in 2023. Here's what we learned:ECONOMY: Gloom and doom heading into Davos turned into cautious optimism by the end with the global economic outlook for the year ahead looking better than feared. On the inside, political leaders like Kier Starmer railed against new oil investments and Pakistani climate minister Sherry Rehman pushed for loss and damage funding. The lesson I have learned in the last years ... is money, money, money, money, money, money, money."

☆ Davos 2023: Global trade rethink: 'race of the big pockets'?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SummarySummary Companies US climate bill concerns dominate Davos trade talkSome fear "rich-country game" of rising state subsidiesRevamped globalisation must benefit all, Davos toldDAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The United States pitched its vision of "worker-centric" trade. "I am very concerned," World Trade Organization (WTO) chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told Reuters on the sidelines of the meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Three decades of free global trade have, the International Monetary Fund estimates, lifted more than a billion people out of extreme poverty. The United States notably built into its trade pact with Mexico a mechanism for identifying and dealing with the denial of worker rights. U.S. Trade Representative Tai told a panel on Wednesday the United States wanted to "lead a conversation" on a new version of globalisation.

☆ Davos: India flexes its muscle as China's star fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In 2023, as global recession fears persist, the country is expected to log the best performance of any major economy. An Invest India banner hanging from a building ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Monday, Jan. 16. India is also due to displace its powerful neighbor as the world’s most populous country this year. They’re a substantial asset — if India’s economy can create enough jobs. “The world needs resilience,” Tata Sons Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran told a Davos panel.

☆ Davos draws record crowds, but its relevance is fading
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Data from the World Bank shows that global trade of goods and services as a percentage of total economic output peaked that year. A wooden sign on the waterfront of Lake Davos in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 8, 2023. Just look to Italy’s new prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, who was installed in October. Those skipping the gathering this year include US President Joe Biden, China’s Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. That raises questions about whether Davos can hang on to its reputation an essential event for the rich and powerful.

☆ Covid broke supply chains. Now on the mend, can they withstand another shock?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

“Because of that, supply chains are not as brittle as they were three years ago,” he said. “There could be another huge black swan event in a month that throws everything upside down; but for right now, it seems like respondents are predicting steadiness in the supply chain.”If anything, the pandemic’s shock to the supply chain should be a wake-up call, said Jack Buffington, director of supply chain and sustainability at First Key Consulting and assistant professor of supply chain management at the University of Denver. “I would categorize it as ‘efficiently broken,’” said Buffington, whose own book about supply chains, “Reinventing the Supply Chain: A 21st Century Covenant with America,” had its release delayed due to supply chain issues. “All supply chains really are is supply and demand, and there’s been so much disruption in materials and consumer demand related to labor and inflation and geopolitics,” he said. The complexities related to a globalized supply chain, human systems aren’t capable of handling it.”He added: “Covid wasn’t the cause of the problems with the supply chain, it was a trigger to show how bad it was,” he said.

☆ Polycrisis may lead to polycentric world order
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Another scenario is possible: a “polycentric order” with multiple centres of authority, where the United States is the leading power but not the hegemonic one. Indeed, the outlines of such an order may already be emerging out of the conflagration of economic, political and other shocks often labelled the polycrisis. A polycentric order would be different from what is often called a “multipolar” system - a dog-eats-dog world where big powers have a licence to dominate their neighbours. The United States is not nearly as powerful as it was. President Joe Biden realises the United States needs allies, says Peter Engelke of the Atlantic Council think tank.

REUTERS/Dinuka Liyanawatte/File PhotoDec 13 (Reuters) - For the energy industry, 2022 will be remembered as the year Russia's invasion of Ukraine accelerated a global energy crisis. The world's top energy companies beat a hasty retreat from Russia and wrote off tens of billions of dollars in assets. WHY IT MATTERSRussia's invasion of Ukraine caused European countries to re-evaluate their relationship with that nation, long the continent's primary supplier of natural gas. "We are seeing nothing less than the termination of a successful 50-year partnership on gas between Russia and Europe," said Michael Stoppard, special adviser and global gas analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights. As the year comes to a close, costs for natural gas and heating fuel have ebbed as economic activity declines.

☆ Friendshoring makes sense if done in the right way
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

These examples explain the enthusiasm for “friendshoring”, an idea U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is pushing. First, it could provoke an all-out trade war – causing the kinds of disruptions that friendshoring is intended to prevent. Things would be different if China was the West’s implacable enemy in the way that Putin’s Russia is. Using friendshoring in a defensive rather than aggressive way means focusing on strategic products. While it makes sense to cut its dependency on China, that doesn’t mean going all the way to zero.

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