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☆ Inflation blame game: UK economic woes set government and central bank on a collision course
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Sunak has reiterated his "total support" for the Bank of England and under fire Governor Andrew Bailey. Meanwhile, economic growth has all but stagnated and public debt has surpassed 100% of gross domestic product for the first time since March 1961. "What is perhaps surprising is that the energy shock in the U.K. was larger than in most of mainland Europe." In a recent CNBC-moderated panel at a monetary policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, Bailey noted that the U.K. labor force is unique in remaining below its pre-Covid levels. Thanos Papasavvas, founder of ABP Invest, also alluded to the unique susceptibility of the U.K. to high inflation, but said the Bank of England should have been alive to this far earlier.

Persons: Sunak, Andrew Bailey, STEFAN ROUSSEAU, Rishi Sunak, Shaan Raithatha, CNBC's, We've, they've, Raithatha, we've, Richard Flax, Panmure Gordon, Simon French, Bailey, it's, Brexit, Catherine Mann, It's, Panmure Gordon's, French, Thanos Papasavvas Organizations: Bank of England, Getty, Sunak's Conservative, The Bank of, Vanguard, CPI, CNBC, Bank, Monetary, Committee, Panmure, ABP Invest Locations: The Bank of England, U.S, Ukraine, Europe, Moscow, Sintra , Portugal, U.K, British

☆ Toyota's making an EV with a manual transmission
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Peter Valdes-Dapena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —For those who find electric cars a bit boring, Toyota engineers are working on a realistic-feeling fake manual transmission as a possible feature. To be clear, a manual transmission on an electric car would serve absolutely no purpose. Toyota’s virtual manual transmission includes programming that will allow drivers to realistically experience using it badly, up to a point. If the driver doesn’t “give it enough gas” or selects the wrong gear the car will shake and buck, just like a gas-powered manual transmission car would. If the drivers don’t feel like using the fake manual transmission, they don’t have to.

Persons: holdouts, aren’t, doesn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Toyota, CNN Locations: New York, United States, Europe

"We are not pausing - that is very clear," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference. NOT FED DEPENDENTShe also dismissed the notion that the ECB would have to pause if its U.S. counterpart did so, saying the ECB was "not Fed-dependent". The German 10-year yield , the euro zone benchmark, fell as much as 7 basis points to a one-month low of 2.18%. "In a nod to the hawks, the ECB hinted at 'future decisions' in the plural," Holger Schmieding at Berenberg said. Firms in the services sector especially have complained of labour shortages, suggesting that more wage pressures could come this summer.

☆ European Central Bank set to slow rate hikes as financial conditions tighten rapidly
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank is expected to lift its benchmark rate by a smaller step of 25 basis points Thursday, as core inflation declines and its own survey data points to much tighter financial conditions in the region. The ECB has kept interest at zero, and below, for years, and has launched bond-buying program like the APP (Asset Purchase Program) and PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) in an effort to simulate lending. On the other hand, PEPP was a more flexible bond purchase program introduced during the coronavirus pandemic. "It's a positive sign that core inflation has fallen for the first time in a long time. In addition, the ECB's bank lending survey pointed to an exceptionally large drop in credit demand amid tighter lending criteria, adding to the case for a smaller rate hike.

A 25 basis point move, a slowdown after three straight 50 basis point hikes, appears the most likely outcome, although the bigger increase is still a possibility at what is almost certainly not the end of a historic tightening cycle. Markets see an 80% chance of a 25 basis point move while the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters were also betting on the smaller hike. Supporting a possible ECB downshift, the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and signalled it may pause further increases. At 3%, the ECB's deposit rate is already restricting economic activity, and underlying inflation has also stopped rising - at least for the time being. The ECB will announce its policy decision at 1215 GMT and Lagarde will hold a press conference at 1245 GMT.

☆ Consumers are ‘retrenching.’ What that means for recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But for consumers, the lengthy spell in the crossfire of persistently high prices and rising interest rates has taken its toll. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat in March, marking the fourth time in five months that expenditures held steady or declined. “Further deterioration in the job market — the last remaining leg propping up the consumer — is bound to accelerate the downshift in consumer spending in the coming months. Private label growth is one of six indicators that Allison tracks to determine a consumer recession. “If you ask the economists, ‘Are we in a recession?’ they’re going to say ‘No, we’re not in a recession,’” he said.

That's a good reason to pause after one more rate increase, he said, to study how the economy and inflation evolve, and try to limit the damage to growth and jobs. 'HAD TO DOWNSHIFT'The Atlanta Fed chief spoke in detail about how the recent turmoil in banking markets buffeted his monetary policy views. At first, high inflation made him open to a half-percentage-point increase at the March 21-22 Fed meeting. Indeed, Bostic sketched out why he still believes the inflation battle can be won without a recession or even much of a rise in the unemployment rate. People and businesses "are sitting in a financial condition that is abnormal, and abnormal in a way that would drive excess consumption," Bostic said.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Tom Michaud, CEO of KBW
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Tom Michaud, CEO of KBWTom Michaud, CEO of KBW, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss net interest income, downshift in banking revenue growth, and the duration of Fed policy.

☆ Net interest income will be lower by the end of 2023, says KBW's Tom Michaud
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNet interest income will be lower by the end of 2023, says KBW's Tom MichaudTom Michaud, CEO of KBW, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss net interest income, downshift in banking revenue growth, and the duration of Fed policy.

☆ The stock market rally is over as commercial real estate risks begin to compound, JPMorgan's chief market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market rally is nearing its end as risks related to commercial real estate begin to rise, according to JPMorgan. The bank believes the highs for the stock market have been made in 2023, with further downside ahead. "Commercial real estate stresses appear to be compounding, amplified by banking shocks that could complicate their debt roll," Kolanovic warned. Kolanovic isn't the only one on Wall Street that's concerned about the sky-high debt pile that's coming due for commercial real estate. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said last week.

☆ Jeremy Siegel says the banking crisis has made him more optimistic about the US economy next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Jeremy Siegel said the banking crisis has made him more optimistic for the US economy next year. "A natural downshift in how tight policy will become from this is one of silver linings from this current banking crisis," he said. "So, a natural downshift in how tight policy will become from this is one of silver linings from this current banking crisis." But Siegel suggests the fallout from the banking mayhem will push the Fed to ease up on rate increases. The banking turmoil is doing some of the US central bank's job for it by tightening financial conditions, according to several analysts.

☆ Sell any bounce in the banks, warns BCA Research
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

With unprecedented volatility in the market this week, thanks to the recent U.S. bank closures and fear of contagion spreading across Europe, the BCA Research team is doubtful banks can stay profitable in the foreseeable future. The KBW Regional Banking Index is higher by just 0.2% Thursday. There also could be an opportunity for investors to use potential bounces to underweight the industry, she added. KBWR 1D mountain KBWR Regional Bank index "We believe that this remains the most prudent course of action, selling banking exposure into a potential bounce," she wrote. "To capture the best exit point, we are putting banks on a downgrade watch from current neutral position."

☆ Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Friday: Bank fallout, jobs sweet spot
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ As accomplished, high-profile female leaders step back from their careers, I wonder whether any woman can have it all
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-19 | by ( Marguerite Ward | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

I don't fault them; they're women who achieved much and then, it appears, made the best decision for themselves. Women face bias when they're leaders. McKinsey & Company recently said it found that "compared with men, senior women leaders report higher rates of burnout, chronic stress, and exhaustion." A report last year from LeanIn.org and McKinsey said women leaders were leaving their companies at the highest rate ever; the organizations started tracking the data in 2015. "You're not promoting enough women into the leadership ranks, and now you have more women leaving leadership roles," Thomas told CNBC Make It in October.

☆ Major central banks set to signal interest rate glide path in crucial week for monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A screen displays the Fed rate announcement as a trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), November 2, 2022. Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England are all expected to hike interest rates once again this week, as they make their first policy announcements of 2023. Economists will be watching policymakers' rhetoric closely for clues on the path of future rate hikes this year, as the three major central banks try to engineer a soft landing for their respective economies without allowing inflation to regain momentum. The market is now pricing in this eventuality, but the key question is what the FOMC will indicate about further rate hikes in 2023. "Fewer hikes might be needed if the recent weakening in business confidence captured by the survey data depresses hiring and investment more than we think, substituting for additional rate hikes," Mericle said.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to hold a news conference half an hour later to elaborate on the decision. Caught flat-footed last year as inflation accelerated and threatened to prove far more persistent than anticipated, the Fed approved the fastest interest rate hikes since the 1980s. New data last week showed a key inflation measure slowed faster than expected in December, continuing a six-month downward trend. The expected move to 25-basis-point rate increases will be a "hawkish downshift," BNP Paribas economists wrote ahead of this week's policy meeting. Traders of futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate see the path somewhat differently, with the benchmark rate peaking in the 4.75%-5.00% range, and the central bank cutting that rate to around 4.4% by December.

U.S. labor costs increased at their slowest pace in a year in the fourth quarter as wage growth slowed, bolstering expectations of the Fed slowing the pace of its interest rate increases. "As the Fed meeting begins today, they'll be looking at every index that could give them a better judgment on inflation and this is one of them," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities LLC. "Labor costs are still high, but this means costs have come down, and that's a key factor for future wage inflation." United Parcel Service (UPS.N) jumped 4% on strong quarterly earnings, boosting the Dow Jones Transport Average index (.DJT). The S&P index recorded four new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 32 new highs and 14 new lows.

☆ Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the market Monday: FANG-obsession over; crazy earnings, Fed, jobs week
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Susquehanna raises price target on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to $88 per share from $80; keeps positive rating on the Club stock. Baird increases price target on Starbucks (SBUX) to $110 per share from $94; keeps hold rating. Deutsche Bank cut price target by $3 per share to $84. HSBC raises price target on oilfield services company Halliburton (HAL) to $57 per share from nearly $44; keeps buy rating. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ I'd be shocked if Fed did anything other than 25 bps hike, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI'd be shocked if Fed did anything other than 25 bps hike, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss why the time is not suitable for a Federal Reserve downshift, El-Erian's fears with inflation, and more.

About a quarter of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings so far, of which 69% have beaten analysts' estimates, according to Refinitiv data as of Thursday. Both companies were among the biggest boosts to the S&P 500 (.SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI). Seven of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors edged higher with the consumer discretionary sector (.SPLRCD) surging 1.4%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.32-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.37-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 12 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 43 new highs and 21 new lows.

☆ U.S. inflation roller coaster prompts fresh look at long-ignored money supply
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The recent decline in the money supply comes as the Fed has been aggressively raising rates to push inflation back to its 2% target. That dynamic changed in the last two years, though, with money supply trends moving in roughly the same direction as inflation pressures: As money supply rose rapidly into early 2022, so did inflation; since M2 started a persistent decline last summer, inflation pressures have also receded. To be sure, measuring money supply is complicated, with no one way to do it. Bullard, acknowledging the cooling off of money supply, said this downshift in money "bodes well for disinflation," which means the Fed is likely to face an enduring trend of lower price pressures. Economists, meanwhile, are still taking on board whether money supply is something they need to pay greater mind to as they contemplate monetary policy and inflation.

☆ European markets head for higher open ahead of flash PMI data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Surging inflation may appear largely in the past, but a shift to a 25 basis point hike at the next Federal Reserve policy meeting is a "mistake," according to Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian. "'I'm in a very, very small camp who thinks that they should not downshift to 25 basis points, they should do 50," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday. Inflation, he said, has shifted from the goods to the services sector, but could very well resurge if energy prices rise as China reopens. El-Erian expects inflation to plateau around 4%. "That's probably the best outcome," he said of the latter.

☆ Investors are stampeding into boring old bonds to start the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-21 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Yet boring old bonds have just about kept pace, as investors rush to lock in healthy-seeming yields after one of the worst years ever for fixed-income returns. The Federal Reserve's historically aggressive tightening campaign last year gouged debt portfolios but quickly rebuilt the supply of safe yield on offer for today's buyers. I made the case for bonds' value from this perspective in a column here three months ago , just as Treasury yields were peaking. The good news is that "real yields," meaning yields above the market's implied outlook for inflation, remain positive. The American Association of Individual Investors' monthly asset allocation survey for December showed bonds at 14.3%, below the survey's long-term average of 16%.

☆ Oil prices climb on hopes for Fed slowing interest rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jan 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday on optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve will ends its tightening cycle, buoying the economy and boosting fuel demand. Both closed 1% higher on Thursday, near their highest closing levels since Dec. 1. A number of other Fed officials have expressed support for a downshift in the pace of rate rises. A rebound in Chinese economy and the Russian oil industry's struggles under sanctions could tighten energy markets in 2023, International Energy Agency (IEA) head Fatih Birol said on Thursday. Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar; Editing by Kenneth MaxwellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed to deliver two 25-basis-point hikes in Q1, followed by long pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fed officials broadly agree the U.S. central bank should slow the pace of tightening to assess the impact of the rate hikes. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 425 basis points last year, with the bulk of the tightening coming in 75- and 50-basis-point moves. If realized, that would take the policy rate - the federal funds rate - to the 4.50%-4.75% range. The fed funds rate was expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% in March, according to 61 of 90 economists. Reuters Poll- U.S. Federal Reserve outlookIn the meantime, the Fed is more likely to help push the economy into a recession than not.

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