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☆ India's central bank holds rate, looking for inflation 'elephant' to vanish
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

India's central bank held its key interest rate for a seventh straight policy meeting on Friday as growth in the economy is expected to remain robust while inflation stays above the 4% target. The six-member monetary policy committee kept the main lending rate at 6.5%, in line with expectations. While low core inflation provides comfort, the uncertainty on food inflation remains a worry. "While low core inflation provides comfort, the uncertainty on food inflation remains a worry," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. "The increasing incidence of climate shocks remains a key upside risk to food prices," the rate setting panel said in its monetary policy statement.

Persons: Shaktikanta Das, Das, Upasna Bhardwaj, Devendra Kumar Pant Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Kotak Mahindra Bank, U.S, NSE, BSE, Research Locations: India

☆ Chair Powell says the Fed isn’t more tolerant of higher inflation. Some economists disagree
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some economists interpreted that as a sign that the Fed is now more tolerant of higher inflation. Powell pushed back on the perception that the central bank has grown more comfortable with inflation being higher for longer than expected in his post-meeting news conference. and my sense coming out of this month’s meeting was that Fed Chair Powell wants to get this easing cycle going sooner rather than later. What’s allowing the Fed to be patient or more tolerant of higher inflation? They’re willing to essentially look through some of the bumpiness in the inflation data at the beginning of the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, That’s, Powell, “, ” Powell, “ We’re, Mohamed El, Erian, ”, Bell, Lydia Boussour, they’re, What’s, we’ve, Nathaniel Meyersohn, Read, Levi Strauss, Tupperware Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Fed, Home Depot, Home, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Maine Foods, Dave, Buster’s Entertainment, US Labor Department, US Commerce Department, Stanford University Locations: EY, Cal

☆ The Fed still probably isn't ready to give Americans the interest rate cuts they're hoping for
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Still, the door is open for rate cuts later in the year. AdvertisementThe nation's central bank is gearing up to make its second interest rate decision of the year, and it probably won't be the relief many Americans want to see. AdvertisementStill, while Americans may not see an interest rate cut this month, they could see one later on this year. But I still think interest rate cuts of one form or the other are likely this year." A group of Democratic lawmakers are also urging Powell to develop a timeline in which Americans can expect to see rate cuts.

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, Powell, there's, we've, Nick Bunker, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Congressional Progressive Caucus — Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed, Financial Services Committee, North America, Democratic, Congressional Progressive Caucus

☆ Deflation: Here's where prices fell in February 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. is still grappling with higher inflation, government data released this week shows. This "does not mean prices have come down, it just means that they are increasing at a slower rate," said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School. "It is reasonable that people continue to be frustrated by high prices," House said. While inflation is an overall increase in prices, that doesn't mean all prices go up, said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James. "Some prices go up, some prices go down," Aleman said.

Persons: Brett House, —, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Aleman Organizations: Columbia Business School, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: U.S

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for February 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation is down from its hottest point in 2022, but is still warm, considering the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Real wages are on the rise, said Hamrick, which means people are seeing wages adjusted for inflation. When interest rates may subsideOne factor that affects how well Americans are doing — for better or for worse — is interest rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year, after having executed a series of rate increases to tamp down inflation. "We don't perceive there to be like an imminent pressure on the Fed to cut rates," such as a recession or sudden rise in unemployment, Doyle said.

Persons: Elijah Nouvelage, Mark Hamrick, David Doyle, Doyle, Hamrick Organizations: Kroger, AFP, Getty, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Federal Locations: Atlanta, Macquarie

☆ Trading CPI: How JPMorgan thinks stocks will react to Tuesday’s big inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Against this backdrop, JPMorgan traders how they expect the S & P 500 to fare, depending on how much core CPI increased from the prior month. 30% chance — CPI rises 0.3%-0.4%: Such a gain would raise concern that inflation may be reaccelerating. JPMorgan sees the S & P 500 falling 0.5%-1% under this outcome. 7.5% chance — CPI jumps more than 0.4%: JPMorgan traders see a 1.75%-2.25% sell-off under this scenario, noting such a report would manifest fears of a "second peak in inflation." 2.5% chance — CPI rises less than 0.1%: Under this outcome, an "everything rally" in stocks would take place, sending the S & P 500 higher by 1.5%-2%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, it's Organizations: JPMorgan, Core CPI

☆ European Central Bank hints at June rate cut as it trims inflation forecast
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The European Central Bank on Thursday lowered its annual inflation forecast, as its confirmed a widely expected hold of interest rates. ECB President Christine Lagarde, meanwhile, suggested market pricing for a June rate cut was coming into line with policymakers' outlook. Looking ahead, staff see inflation hitting the ECB's 2% target in 2025 and cooling further to 1.9% in 2026. They meanwhile updated their forecast for economic growth for 2024 to 0.6% from 0.8%, as the euro zone's economic activity escapes its current stagnation. The ECB will be "laser-focused" on two areas of inflation that could surprise, namely wage growth and profit margins, Lagarde said.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB

☆ The Fed is 'held hostage' by data and risks sparking financial instability, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's over-dependence on data risks financial instability, Mohamed El-Erian wrote in a recent op-ed for Bloomberg. He says the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's strict adherence to data is sapping it of policy alternatives, economist Mohamed El-Erian wrote for Bloomberg on Friday. Many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. He expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged through 2024, citing that neither inflation nor the US economy is sufficiently cooling.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, Torsten Slok Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Fed

☆ Stock futures are flat after the market wraps its 4th winning month in a row: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Thursday after the market wrapped up its fourth winning month and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite reached its first closing record since November 2021. S&P 500 futures were flat and Nasdaq 100 futures inched 0.1% lower. Major averages ended another positive month as the rally driven by an artificial intelligence boom and hopes for rate cuts chugged along. The S&P 500 climbed 5.2%, while the Dow added 2.2% for its first four-month winning streak since May 2021. On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 is tracking for a roughly 0.2% advance, while the Nasdaq is up 0.6%.

Persons: We're, Adam Crisafulli, Thursday's, Bitcoin, Dow Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, New, New York Community Bancorp, Dow, Vital, Federal Locations: New York

☆ Trump and Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

If there is a simple political truth, it’s that voters hate inflation. But Trump also criticizes high interest rates — the Federal Reserve’s key tool for lowering inflation. And the second-term agenda he is proposing contains few policies that economists believe would reduce inflation. Trump has also pledged to deport many undocumented immigrants, which could cause labor shortages that lift prices on food and other items. And while Trump has not laid out his plans in sufficient detail for economists to judge how his agenda as a whole would affect inflation, there’s little to suggest that his policies would stamp out price increases.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Biden, Trump, ”, Michael Strain Organizations: American Enterprise Institute

☆ China's deflation problem keeps getting worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In the latest sign of the country's worsening deflation problem, fresh data showed consumer prices in China tumbled in January at the sharpest rate in 14 years. AdvertisementOn an annualized month-over-month basis, consumer prices fell 4.3%, with particular weakness in food prices. Measured year-over-year for January:Pork prices fell 17.3%Vegetable prices fell 12.7%Fruit prices fell 9.1%The producer price index, too, dropped 2.5%, while service prices climbed at 0.5% on the year, half the rate seen in December. The more consumer prices fall, the more difficult it will be for Beijing to reverse. Foreign investors have already fled Chinese markets in droves over the last year, and ongoing deflation could spell trouble for earnings of Chinese companies.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, National Bureau, Statistics, Bloomberg, Institute of International Finance Locations: China, China's, Beijing

☆ Costco and TJX crushed rivals in an inflationary world. What happens as prices come down?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-04 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Costco and TJX Companies should be able to manage the emerging transition to deflation by leveraging their deep value propositions to get customers to buy more. Average sale prices on other items like TVs have been lower while unit sales have gone higher. Membership fee revenue is some of the glue that allows Costco to keep prices so low. Costco can boost sales in either scenario by "encouraging its members to buy more items to get more savings," Feldman said. Like Costco, Feldman said the off-price retailer would need to increase revenue either through price or number of units.

Persons: won't, Joe Feldman, Jim Cramer, Rich Galanti, Galanti, Feldman, It's, They'll, Jefferies, TJX, We'll, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Robert Nickelsberg Organizations: Costco, TJX, Marshalls, Federal, Fed, Telsey Advisory, Kirkland, CNBC, Costco Wholesale, Getty Locations: Maxx, stoke, TJX, Colchester , Vermont

☆ Euro zone inflation eases as expected, but core figures disappoint
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Euro zone headline inflation eased slightly in January, flash figures published by the European Union's statistics agency showed on Thursday, while core figures declined less than expected. Inflation stood at 2.9% in December, up from 2.4% in November, largely due to the wind-down of energy price support measures. By sector, services inflation — an important gauge for policymakers due to its link to domestic wage pressures — held steady at 4%. Preliminary figures out earlier this week showed inflation in Germany easing slightly more than had been forecast, reaching 3.1%. "However, core inflation only inched lower, with services especially coming in quite hot.

Persons: Janis, Price, Christine Lagarde, Kamil Kovar, Kovar Organizations: Reuters, Inflation, European Central Bank, ECB, Moody's Locations: Cais, Lisbon, Portugal, Germany

☆ JPMorgan says investors wishing for early and aggressive rate cuts will be disappointed
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Rising geopolitical headwinds and the potential for political turmoil could combine to thwart investors' hopes for the Federal Reserve to enact sharp interest rate cuts this year, according to JPMorgan Chase strategists. Markets have been betting that the Fed likely will start lowering its benchmark short-term borrowing rate by May or even as early as March. JPMorgan's investment team said the calculus could be important for investors as stocks and other asset classes look for direction. In recent days, multiple Fed officials have made remarks insisting that they are in no hurry to start cutting rates. For the full year, traders have gone from a strong chance of six cuts to a coin-flip between five and six.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Chase, JPMorgan, U.S, Fed, European Central Bank, Atlanta Fed, Federal, Market, Traders, Commerce Department Locations: 1H24

☆ Why that ‘last mile’ of the inflation fight may be more challenging
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Inflation measures how fast prices are rising for goods and services — anything from concert tickets and haircuts to groceries and furniture. That means further broad disinflation likely won't come from consumer goods, economists said. In fact, attacks by Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea threaten to disrupt a key transit corridor and may trigger higher goods inflation if it persists, El-Erian explained. While down from more than 7% last year, services inflation still sits at 5.3%. Why this may all be 'nonsense'Not all economists think the last mile of disinflation will be harder than what came before, however.

Persons: Robyn Beck, Mohamed El, We're, Gargi Chaudhuri, Houthi, Erian, Chaudhuri, Mark Zandi, Sarah House, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Afp, Getty, Allianz, Queens ' College, University of Cambridge, CNBC, Americas, BlackRock, Finance, of Labor Statistics, Labor, Moody's Analytics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Capital Economics Locations: Los Angeles, U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Stocks end 2023 with a 4th-quarter rally and many soft landing converts. Breaking down the '24 outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-30 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD As for the "too far, too fast" argument, it's worth recalling that all the S & P 500 has done is nearly complete an almost-symmetrical two-year round trip. Ned Davis Research U.S. strategist Ed Clissold looked back at prior times the S & P 500 has gone more than a year without making a record high. This is always a tricky proposition – cash that leaves money markets to buy stocks leaves the seller of the stocks with cash. For one thing, $6 trillion is only about 12% of total U.S. equity market cap, near the lower end of its historical range. At the 2009 market low money markets were 50% of equity market cap.

Persons: —, we've, Jason Goepfert, Jeff deGraaf, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jerome Powell, it's, Cash Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Timely, National Association of Active Investment, Ned Davis Research, Investment, of

☆ Strategists say red hot stock market rally is due for a breather
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-20 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The equity market is due for a cooldown, according to several strategists, who are telling clients to begin positioning themselves defensively in preparation for a slow-growth earnings environment next year. The S & P 500 has rallied almost 24% this year, but is up 11% in the fourth quarter alone. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF , for example, is up 24% this quarter, but still down 12% for the year. According to Calvasina, industrials are the most overvalued sector in the S & P 500, while energy and communication services offer the most attractive valuations. .GSPHC YTD mountain S & P Health Care sector performance this year.

Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna, haven't, Lori Calvasina, Calvasina, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Barclays, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Big Tech, Regional Banking, RBC Capital, P Health Care, JPMorgan Locations: Krishna, SPX, Europe

☆ Morning Bid: Buoyant markets hold near year's highs
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. Fed futures markets think a first cut may come as soon as March - with a quarter-point easing by then already two-thirds priced. Two-year Treasury yields hit their lowest since June on Friday and 10-year yields their lowest in three months, although they edged higher on Monday. U.S. crude hit its lowest in two weeks and is tracking year-on-year losses of almost 10%. But that is widening into yearend as peak rate hopes encourage some rotation to smaller cap stocks.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Powell, Goldman Sachs, Jan, Fitch, Bitcoin, Christine Lagarde, Joann, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Spelman College, Fed, Tech, HK, Central Bank, Treasury, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Atlanta, Europe, Gaza, China, Hong Kong, WuXi, Evergrande, RGC Resources

☆ Wall Street closes amazing November in a bullish mood, and for good reason
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

We are closing out an extraordinary month: The S & P 500 is up nearly 9%, its fourth-best month in 12 years. The equal weight S & P 500 is up almost as much as the market-cap weighted S & P 500. Of the 10 major financial firms, only two (Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan) see the S & P 500 lower next year. Wall Street strategists' year-end S & P 500 estimates . That puts the S & P 500 at a very rich multiple of almost 19 times forward earnings (17x is the historic norm).

Persons: Russell, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, bullish, Brian Belski, Scott Wren, Wren, That's, JP Morgan's, Dubravko Organizations: Wall, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Treasury, Core PCE, Wells Fargo Institute, CNBC Locations: Wells Fargo, Atlanta

☆ The stock market could plunge as much as 27% when the economy finally tips into recession, investment research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

That's because the US economy remains on track to enter a recession as high interest rates take a toll. A downturn could cause stocks to plummet as much as 27%, the investment research firm predicted. Economists have been warning of a potential recession since 2022, when central bankers began to aggressively raise interest rates to tame high inflation. AdvertisementLending conditions are tightening under the influence of higher-for-longer interest rates, leading some experts to warn of a coming default cycle on the horizon. "Cracks" also appear to be forming in the job market as firms slow their pace of hiring, BCA strategists said.

Persons: — Organizations: Research, Service, BCA Research, Fed, ECB, Deutsche Bank , Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets

☆ Asia stocks hang onto weekly gains as yields, oil fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The market is pricing in 98 basis points of cuts next year, compared with 73 basis points a week ago. "We forecast the policy rate to drop 100 basis points in 2H24 to end the year at 4.5%, before settling on hold at 3.5% by 1Q25." Treasury investors were looking to price in a little of that right now with yields on two-year treasuries down a whopping 21 basis points for the week at 4.85%. Ten-year note yields stood at 4.44%, having fallen 18 basis points for the week so far, a rousing rally from the 5.02% high hit just a month ago. It fared better against commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar , which were hampered by the slide in oil.

Persons: Brent, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Fumio Kishida, Xi, Wayne Cole, Sam Holmes Organizations: SYDNEY, Dealers, Walmart, Equity, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Japanese, APEC, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, 1Q25, Treasury, Fed, Thomson Locations: Asia, Japan, Pacific, U.S, United States, China, 2H24

☆ UBS expects the Fed to halve interest rates next year. Here are 3 preferred trades
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

UBS has highlighted several stock ideas it favors for 2024, as it forecasts massive cuts to interest rates next year. The investment bank expects the U.S. will see slower economic growth and strong disinflation leading to an interest rate cut of 275 basis points . Given the economic outlook, UBS strategists recommend a number of trades to clients for 2024. All the sectors apart from software trade on bigger discounts than normal against their US peers," the UBS strategists said. To reflect that view, UBS strategists said they favored gaining exposure to the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF in 2024.

Persons: Jonathan Pingle, Gerry Fowler, Sean Simonds, KWEB Organizations: UBS, Federal, CNBC, U.S, Investors, China Tech, Internet Technology, CSI China Internet Locations: U.S, China

☆ Target sits at the center of a number of consumer headwinds, says JPMorgan's Christopher Horvers
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTarget sits at the center of a number of consumer headwinds, says JPMorgan's Christopher HorversChristopher Horvers, JPMorgan senior analyst, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Target's and Walmart's consumer backdrops, the disinflationary outlook for goods, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Christopher Horvers Christopher Horvers Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ Here's when market experts think inflation will get back to normal
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

While many experts don't see inflation getting back to normal just yet, it could in a year or two. Consumer price inflation has been mostly slowing this year. Some experts see inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index being around 2% — the Fed's target year-over-year rate of price growth — by some time in 2024. Advertisement"We foresee headline and core CPI inflation around 2.2% y/y in Q4 2024," Daco said in his commentary. Goldman Sachs forecasts that measure is expected to cool off and see a 2.4% year-over-year increase in December 2024.

Persons: J.P, David Kelly, —, Gregory Daco, Daco, Kelly, ING's James Knightley, Sarah Foster's, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick Organizations: Morgan, Service, Consumer, CPI, Morgan Asset Management, Bankrate, Federal Reserve, Federal, Business

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon Acquire Licensing RightsNov 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The Asia Pacific economic data and policy calendar on Friday is very light, with only Malaysian third quarter GDP and current account reports scheduled for release. Ahead of the data the ringgit is trading around 4.6850 per dollar, near last month's 25-year low of 4.79 per dollar. Anyone hoping for market-moving news from the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in San Francisco will have been disappointed. The gathering of APEC leaders has been cordial and cooperative but, viewed through an economic and market lens, lacking any real substance.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Jamie McGeever, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Fed's Barr, Collins, Daly, Josie Kao Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Treasury, Asia, Malaysian, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, APEC, CSI, Brent, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Asia Pacific, Asia, San Francisco, China, Malaysia

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