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Excluding food and energy, the increase for core inflation, is forecast at a 0.3% gain, also one-tenth of a percentage point above the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is expected to show a 3.1% gain and core inflation a 3.7% increase when the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest reading on the consumer price index Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. On the brighter side, House said lower prices on travel, medical care and other services helped keep inflation in check. Still, Wells Fargo has raised its full-year inflation forecast. Focusing on the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred Fed gauge, Wells Fargo sees inflation at 2.5% for the year, versus a prior estimate for 2.2%.
Persons: Elijah Nouvelage, Dow Jones, Sarah House, Wells, Wells Fargo Organizations: Kroger, AFP, Getty, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, AAA, CPI, Wells, New York Fed Locations: Atlanta , Georgia, Wells Fargo, isn't
Dollar ends week under pressure as data keeps rate cut hopes alive
  + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February after holding at 3.7% for three straight months, the data showed. The euro got a lift this week as the dollar came under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded more confident about cutting interest rates in coming months. Currencies typically weaken if central banks lower interest rates. Against the yen, the dollar was 0.68% lower at 147.05 yen, its weakest since Feb. 2. Firming hopes that interest rates in the U.S. and Europe will start to fall in June also helped prop up the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Stuart Cole, Cole, Powell, Lindsey Bell, Kathleen Brooks, Sterling, BoE, Firming, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Equiti, ECB, Federal, Ventures, Bank of, Reuters, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, New Locations: Japan, Charlotte , North Carolina, Bank of Japan, U.S, Europe, New Zealand
watch nowJob creation topped expectations in February, but the unemployment rate moved higher and employment growth from the previous two months wasn't nearly as hot as initially reported. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month while the jobless rate moved higher to 3.9%, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The jobless level increased as the household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 184,000 in those employed. The increase came even though the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%, though the "prime age" rate increased to 83.5%, up two-tenths of a percentage point. An alternative jobless measure, sometimes called the "real" unemployment rate, that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons rose slightly to 7.3%.
Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Stocks, It's, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Dan North, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Government, Futures, Allianz Trade, Capitol
The 2-year Treasury yield nearly three basis points lower at 4.47%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower Monday as investors looked ahead to key economic data and fresh comments from Federal Reserve officials that could provide hints about the interest rate outlook. January's consumer price index is due Tuesday, before the producer price index, retail sales figures and further data points which are slated for later in the week. Investors are hoping that the data will suggest that the Fed could begin cutting rates sooner rather than later. On Friday, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics revised December's consumer price index lower, saying it had risen by 0.2% that month.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics
The prices consumers pay in the marketplace rose at an even slower pace than originally reported, according to closely watched revisions the government released Friday. Revisions to the consumer price index showed that the broad basket of goods and services measured increased 0.2% on the month, less than the originally reported 0.3%, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Indications that inflation in 2022 rose more than anticipated drove Treasury yields higher and sparked worry from investors that the Fed might keep monetary policy more restrictive. Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% for the month, the same as originally reported. Fed policymakers tend to focus more on core measures as they provide a better indication of long-run movements in inflation.
Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, much better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Job growth was widespread on the month, led by professional and business services with 74,000. The report also indicated that December's job gains were much better than originally reported. The January payrolls count comes with economists and policymakers closely watching employment figures for direction on the larger economy. The fourth quarter saw GDP increase at a strong 3.3% annualized pace, closing out a year in which the economy defied widespread predictions for a recession.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Gross, Atlanta, Fed Locations: U.S
Tech's longtime highfliers are growing up by getting smaller
  + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Ari Levy | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +7 min
They're still out hunting for the best technical talent, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, but headcount growth is measured. Last year, tech companies were responding to dramatically changing market conditions — soaring inflation, rising interest rates, rotation out of risk — after an extended bull market. Meta slashed over 20,000 jobs in 2023, Amazon laid off more than 27,000 people, And Alphabet cut over 12,000 positions. Other than Nvidia , which had a banner 2023 due to soaring demand for its AI chips, none of the other mega-cap tech companies have been growing at their historic averages. By late this year, analysts are projecting growth at Meta will be back down to the low teens at best.
Persons: Tayfun, There's, Daniel Flax, Neuberger Berman, CNBC's, Morgan Stanley, Brian Nowak, Brian Olsavsky, They're, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Olsavsky, Phil Spencer, Justin Sullivan, Okta, Zuora, Evan Sohn, Recruiter.com, " Sohn, Susan Li, Ben Barringer, Cheviot, Barringer, , Annie Palmer Organizations: Anadolu Agency, Getty Images Technology, Amazon, Meta, hasn't, Microsoft, Activision Blizzard, SAN FRANCISCO, Activision, FTC, Getty, Federal, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Tech, Nvidia, Finance, CNBC Locations: Menlo Park , California, Silicon Valley, CALIFORNIA, San Francisco , California
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.30 million job openings in October. Job openings decreased by 168,000 in the finance and insurance industry, while real estate, rental and leasing had 49,000 fewer positions. The job openings rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.6% in September. "The current state of the labor market suggests no further recalibration is necessary to bring the labor market back into balance," said Nick Bunker, director of economics research at Indeed Hiring Lab. They also described the labor market as remaining "very competitive," and "trying to get to full staff levels."
Persons: Brian Snyder, Rubeela Farooqi, Nick Bunker, Conrad DeQuadros, November's, Bill Adams, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, Labor, Survey, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Treasury, Brean, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, United Auto Workers, UAW, Comerica Bank, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, WASHINGTON, White Plains , New York, South, Midwest, New York, East, Dallas
Job growth slowed in October and the unemployment rate climbed to 3.9%, the highest level since January 2022. Import prices dropped 0.8% last month after rising 0.4% in September. Economists had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, falling 0.3%. In the 12 months through October, import prices declined 2.0% after decreasing 1.5% in September. Excluding fuels and food, import prices dropped 0.2% after dipping 0.1% in September.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Nancy Vanden Houten, Unadjusted, Goldman Sachs, Lou Crandall, Wrightson, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Labor Department, Oxford Economics, Reuters, Goldman, Treasury, Fed, Reuters Graphics, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City , New York, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Massachusetts, Oregon, Georgia, United States, China
US producer prices unexpectedly fall in October
  + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Goods prices dropped 1.4% in October, with a 15.3 plunge in gasoline prices accounting for more than 80% of the decline. Goods prices rose 0.8% in September. Food prices fell 0.2%. Excluding the volatile energy and energy components, goods prices edged up 0.1% last month. These so-called core goods prices rose 0.2% in September.
Persons: Lucia Mutikani Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Reuters, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would fall 0.3%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rose 0.2% in October. Data for September was revised up to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.7% instead of the previously reported 0.6%. Core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP. Goods prices rose 0.8% in September.
Persons: Bill Adams, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Saks Fifth, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Federal, Comerica Bank, Commerce, Data, Reuters, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Consumer, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wednesday, PPI, Reuters Graphics, Fed, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Dallas, Commerce Department's
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.1% on the month and increasing 3.3% on a year-on-year basis. The rally was due to rising investor belief that the Federal Reserve will now be less likely to hike interest rates at future meetings. LINDSAY ROSNER, HEAD OF MULTI-SECTOR FIXED INCOME INVESTING, GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK“Today's Core CPI print was below expectations. "The Fed will not want to step back from its hawkish stance yet; the annual core rate at 4% is still some way away from target. THOMAS HAYES, CHAIRMAN AT HEDGE FUND GREAT HILL CAPITAL, NEW YORK"We're happy to see both headline and core CPI come in lower than expected.
Persons: Hannah Beier, ” BEN JEFFERY, GREG BASSUK, ” “, ” BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, we’ll, ” CHRIS ZACCARELLI, LINDSAY ROSNER, GOLDMAN, ” MATTHEW MISKIN, JOHN, , ” STUART COLE, Kashkari, Powell, PETER ANDERSEN, ANDERSEN, it's, THOMAS HAYES, OLIVER PURSCHE, It’s, Organizations: Reading, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Treasury, Markets, BMO, Reserve, CPI, ALLIANCE, Fed, Global Finance, Thomson Locations: Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, U.S, WALTHAM, MA, WISCONSIN, CHARLOTTE, GOLDMAN SACHS, JOHN HANCOCK, BOSTON, LONDON
US consumer prices unchanged; core inflation slowing
  + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Grocery food inflation increased 0.3%, driven by gains in the prices of meat, fish and eggs. Reuters GraphicsGOODS DEFLATIONExcluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.2% amid higher costs for rental housing. Health insurance costs rebounded as the BLS implemented changes to the methodology it uses to calculate health insurance prices, effective with October's CPI release. The old method was based on an annual calculation using aggregated health insurance premium and benefit data. There were concerns about the volatility in the annual data and the lag involved in incorporating the health insurance financial data.
Persons: Bing Guan, Christopher Rupkey, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Tuesday, Treasury, Reuters, Fed, CPI, Thomson Locations: SoHo, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON
MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: U.S. stock futures (.SPX) rose after the jobs data.BONDS: U.S. Treasury 10-year yield dropped to three-week low after the jobs report, last yield down at 4.562%. FOREX: The dollar index fell after the weaker-than-expected jobs report. There's not a lot of breadth in the markets and there's not a lot of breadth in the job gains anymore." Back month revisions were substantial as the BLS has consistently overestimated job gains this year, unlike last year where they consistently underestimated the gains. "This is a good sign that the labor market is weakening and is playing into the hands of the Fed.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Detroit's, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, That's, PETER CARDILLO Organizations: REUTERS, United Auto Workers, UAW, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Treasury, BLS, Fed, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WISCONSIN, September's
The anticipated moderation in employment growth last month would also be pay back after September's enormous gains, the largest in eight months. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to show labor market conditions steadily easing, with annual wage growth the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years and significant growth in the supply of workers. Manufacturing payrolls are forecast falling 10,000 after advancing 17,000 in September. Last week, the BLS reported at least 30,000 UAW members were on strike during the period it surveyed businesses for October's employment report. Wages gains would still be above the 3.5% that economists say is consistent with the Fed's 2% target.
Persons: Brian Snyder, Detroit's, Sam Bullard, payrolls, Veronica Clark, we've, Sung Won Sohn, we're, Brian Bethune, that's, Lucia Mutikani, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, UAW, United Auto Workers, Labor, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Manufacturing, BLS, Citigroup, UPS, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Boston College, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. The economy needs to create roughly 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The report could strengthen financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates for the current cycle. The labor market is the major force behind the economy's staying power, with gross domestic product recording an annualized growth pace of nearly 5% in the third quarter. But others disagreed, saying that the record-setting contracts would only become an issue for wage inflation if the Fed raised rates too high and choked off demand.
Persons: Brian Snyder, Detroit's, Lucia Mutikani, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, Rights, United Auto Workers, UAW, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, BLS, Federal, UPS, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S
Wages boost US labor costs in third quarter
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The Employment Cost Index (ECI), the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 1.1% last quarter after increasing 1.0% in the April-June period, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Labor costs increased 4.3% on a year-on-year basis after advancing by 4.5% in the second quarter. Wages increased 1.2% in the third quarter after climbing 1.0% in the prior three months. They were up 4.6% on a year-on-year basis after advancing by the same margin in the second quarter. Inflation-adjusted wages for all workers rose 0.9% on a year-on-year basis after jumping 1.7% in the second quarter.
Persons: Megan Varner, Rubeela Farooqi, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Treasury, Fed, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Labor, State, Thomson Locations: Dalton , Georgia, U.S
US services sector growth slows moderately
  + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
The survey's measure of new orders received by services businesses dropped to 51.8, the lowest level since December, from 57.5 in August. PRICES REMAIN ELEVATEDDespite the slowdown in new orders, services businesses continued to face higher prices. A gauge of prices paid by services businesses for inputs was unchanged at 58.9. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid measure as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. The ISM's gauge of services sector employment dipped to 53.4 from 54.7 in August, which mostly reflected supply issues.
Persons: Amira Karaoud, Kurt Rankin, tightens, September's, Goldman Sachs, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci, Will Dunham Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, PNC Financial, United Auto Workers, Retailers, Treasury, Fed, ADP, Conference Board, Stanford Digital Economy, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Goldman, BLS, Thomson Locations: Louisville, U.S, WASHINGTON, Pittsburgh
"It's going to be a mixed picture, with headline inflation picking due to higher gasoline prices and core inflation remaining contained," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The Fed would be encouraged by the continued moderation trend in core inflation, but it's still too high." While that would mark the second straight month of a pick up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI is forecast to have increased by 4.3%. "Under our new forecast for CPI health insurance, we continue to expect core CPI and especially core services ex.
Persons: Sam Bullard, it's, Ronnie Walker, Goldman Sachs, James Knightley, Lucia Mutikani, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, U.S . Energy Information Administration, CPI, Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, ING, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S, I'm, New York
The consumer price index increased by 0.6% last month, the largest gain since June 2022. Gasoline prices, which jumped 10.6% after rising 0.2% in July, accounted for more than half of the increase in the CPI last month. While that marked the second straight month of a pick-up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The so-called core CPI had increased 0.2% for two consecutive months. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI increased 4.3%.
Persons: bode, Phillip Neuhart, Chris Zaccarelli, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, First Citizens Bank, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Treasury, Independent, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Charlotte , North Carolina
As such, economists are cautioning against reading too much into any sharp deceleration in job gains when the Labor Department's publishes its closely watched employment report on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 170,000 jobs last month after rising 187,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Still, employment growth would be more than the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Yellow Corp trucking filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early August, leaving about 30,000 workers unemployed. "This (job growth) would be one more piece of evidence that would be consistent with that, but that also depends a lot on the upcoming inflation data."
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, it's, Brian Bethune, Nonfarm, payrolls, Conrad DeQuadros, Dean Maki, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Lucia Mutikani, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Boston College, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Federation of Television, Radio Artists, Yellow Corp, Brean, Point72, Management, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Stamford , Connecticut
The S & P 500 could decline by 10% by the end of the year to correct for a recent rise in valuation multiples, according to hedge fund manager Dan Niles. @CL.1 YTD line How to play it Niles, whose fund holds a concentrated portfolio of between 20-40 stocks, also revealed that he was short Apple and long Amazon . According to the hedge fund manager, Apple's valuation at 30x P/E has been made unsustainable after the iPhone-maker reported three consecutive quarters of declining revenues and net profits. That's terrific if you own it, but that's not a game I want to play counting on multiple expansion offsetting earnings going down," Niles added. And that's with the backdrop where I'm concerned about this [multiple expansion]," Niles added.
Persons: Dan Niles, CNBC's, Niles, that's Organizations: Federal, The Labor Department, department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Apple, Meta Locations: Niles, United States, that's
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is still expected to show a tight labor market, with the unemployment rate steady near multi-decade lows, though wage growth probably moderated. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs last month, after rising 209,000 in June, according to a Reuters survey of 80 economists. Still, employment growth would be double the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Striking Hollywood writers and actors also likely had no impact on employment growth. Though annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target, it would be the latest indication of wage pressures continuing to subside into the third quarter.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Sam Bullard, Nonfarm, Carl Riccadonna, Sung Won Sohn, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Fed, BNP, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply, Labor Department, Conference, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles
Sinking Spring, PA - April 19: The sign at the McDonald's restaurant on Penn Ave in Sinking Spring, PA April 19, 2021 with a message on a board below it that reads "Work Here $15 $15 $15". (Photo by Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images)Private sector companies added far more jobs than expected in July, pushed higher by a boom in leisure and hospitality jobs, payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Job gains for the month totaled 324,000, driven by a 201,000 jump in hotels, restaurants, bars and affiliated businesses. The ADP report serves as a precursor for Friday's more widely followed nonfarm payrolls count from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Also of note from the ADP report was that the job gains were concentrated in firms with fewer than 50 employees, which were responsible for 237,000 positions.
Persons: Ben Hasty, Dow Jones, Nela Richardson, nonfarm Organizations: Penn, MediaNews, Getty Images, Dow, Reserve, Goods, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, ADP Locations: PA
U.S. private payrolls beat expectations in June
  + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
WASHINGTON, July 6 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in June, indicating that the labor market remains strong despite growing risks of a recession from higher interest rates. Private payrolls jumped by 497,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 228,000. A survey last month showed consumers' perceptions of the labor market more upbeat in June relative to May. According to a Reuters survey of economists, private payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs in June.
Persons: payrolls, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: ADP, Reuters, Fed, Stanford Digital Economy, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: U.S
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