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LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) - Europe’s gas storage is filling more slowly after prices fell sharply in the first half of the year, but a further slowdown will be needed to prevent space running out before the start of winter 2023/24. Gas inventories across the European Union and the United Kingdom amounted to 889 terawatt-hours (TWh) on July 4, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, July 6). Chartbook: Europe's gas inventories and pricesFront-month futures prices have already fallen by 85% in real terms since August 2022 to encourage more consumption by electricity generators and industrial users as well as re-route liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to Asia. Prices and spreads will continue to come under pressure until storage accumulation slows much further to avoid space becoming full before October. Related columns:- Europe’s gas prices stabilise as storage additions slow (June 8, 2023)- Europe’s gas prices slide on swollen inventories (May 11, 2023)- Europe only has space for a small gas refill in 2023 (April 14, 2023)- Europe’s gas outlook transformed after mild winter (April 13, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Stocks, John Kemp, Emelia Sithole Organizations: European Union, Gas Infrastructure, Thomson, Reuters Locations: United Kingdom, GIE, Asia, Europe

☆ Oil pares gains as rate hike fears offset US inventory drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Benchmark Brent crude prices are down more than 15% this year as rising interest rates hit investor appetite, while China's economic recovery has faltered after several months of softer-than-expected consumption and other data. "For now, the market remains stuck with demand concerns weighing," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "Overall, the commodity sector, including crude oil, is suffering from risk adversity amid China growth worries and U.S. data strength pointing to higher rates," he said. The Energy Information Administration's official supply report is due out at 1430 GMT. Higher interest rates can weigh on economic activity and oil demand.

Persons: Brent, Ole Hansen, Oil, Christine Lagarde, Tamas Varga, Mohi Narayan, Jason Neely, David Evans Organizations: Oil, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Saxo Bank, American Petroleum Institute, Energy, European Central Bank, ECB, PVM, Saudi, Thomson Locations: contango, China

☆ Oil rises on large US stock draws, but rate hike fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Mohi Narayan | Thomson Reuters | Reports On Everything How Asia S Fuel Use Recovers The Fallout Of To Tracking How The Global Energy Transition Impacts Refinery Expansion Plans | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

June 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday after industry data showed a larger-than-expected drawdown of U.S. inventories, signalling robust demand from the world's biggest oil consumer, but the gains were limited by worries over interest rate hikes. Both contracts had fallen by about 2.5% in the previous session on signals that central banks may not be done with interest rate hikes. "Tuesday's slump took Brent and WTI close to support levels that have held through the price dives of the past couple of months," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. Higher interest rates can weigh on economic activity and oil demand. Analysts said that markets have struggled to shake off fears that higher interest rates will weigh on global growth and oil demand.

Persons: Brent, WTI, Vandana Hari, Hari, Christine Lagarde, Mohi Narayan, Arathy Somasekhar, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Jamie Freed, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, Vanda Insights, American Petroleum Institute, Analysts, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: Saudi, China

☆ Oil higher on large US stock draws, but rate hike fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Mohi Narayan | Thomson Reuters | Reports On Everything How Asia S Fuel Use Recovers The Fallout Of To Tracking How The Global Energy Transition Impacts Refinery Expansion Plans | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

June 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday after industry data showed a larger-than-expected drawdown of U.S. inventories signalling robust demand from the world's biggest oil consumer, but the gains were limited by worries over interest rate hikes. Both contracts had fallen by about 2.5% in the previous session on signals that central banks may not be done with interest rate hikes. "Tuesday's slump took Brent and WTI close to support levels that have held through the price dives of the past couple of months," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. Higher interest rates can weigh on economic activity and oil demand. Analysts said that markets have struggled to shake off fears that higher interest rates will weigh on global growth and oil demand.

Persons: Brent, WTI, Vandana Hari, Hari, Christine Lagarde, Mohi Narayan, Arathy Somasekhar, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Jamie Freed Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, Vanda Insights, American Petroleum Institute, Analysts, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: Saudi, China

Oanda analyst Craig Erlam said prices were mainly at the mercy of "the ever-changing expectations for interest rates". European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday that stubbornly high inflation will require the bank to avoid declaring an end to rate hikes. Higher interest rates can weigh on economic activity and oil demand. But the upbeat data suggested the Federal Reserve will likely have to continue raising interest rates to slow demand in the overall economy. The U.S. central bank, which has raised its policy rate by 500 basis points since March 2022, signaled this month that two additional rate hikes were warranted this year.

Persons: Brent, Craig Erlam, Christine Lagarde, Phil Flynn, Wagner, PVM's Tamas Varga, Saudi Arabia's, Li Qiang, Stephanie Kelly, Shadia Nasralla, Trixie Yap, Jan Harvey, David Goodman, Ed Osmond, Deepa Babington, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, European Central Bank, Price Futures, Reserve, American Petroleum Institute, Reuters, Saudi, Thomson Locations: contango, Europe, United States, U.S, Russia, China

SummarySummary Companies Oil price structure implies demand bulls are retreating2-mth Brent spread in contango, implying oversupply concernECB poised for further rate hikesLONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Tuesday ahead of data shedding light on U.S. appetite for fuel during the summer driving season, with the Brent benchmark's price structure indicating bulls are retreating. U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group is expected after 2000 GMT, followed by government data on Wednesday. For the two-month spread , the market is in shallow contango, the opposite price structure, indicating traders are factoring in a currently slightly oversupplied market. The oil market has shrugged off a clash between Moscow and Russian mercenary group Wagner which was averted on Saturday. Russian oil loadings have kept on schedule.

Persons: Brent, Craig Erlam, Christine Lagarde, Wagner, PVM's Tamas Varga, Saudi Arabia's, Premier Li Qiang, Trixie Yap, Jan Harvey, Louise Heavens Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, Central Bank, American Petroleum Institute, Reuters, Saudi, Premier, Thomson Locations: contango, U.S, Moscow, Russian, China

In the physical market, dated Brent prices are in contango through the rest of June and July, indicating traders expect plenty of crude to be available. The second-month spread is firmer, in the 66th percentile, but still implies the market is expected to tighten only gradually in the third quarter. Global petroleum inventories are well below the long-term average, especially for refined fuels such as diesel and gas oil. If the global economy avoids recession and resumes steady growth, low inventories could quickly put explosive upward pressure on prices and spreads. At the same time, expectations about a strong rebound in the economy and oil consumption in China have been deferred.

Persons: Brent, John Kemp, Barbara Lewis Organizations: OPEC, OPEC ⁺, Thomson Locations: Saudi Arabia, contango, North America, Europe, China, U.S, Venezuela, Iran, Russia, Saudi

LONDON, June 8 (Reuters) - Europe’s gas storage is refilling much more slowly than usual as the drop in prices encourages more consumption by industrial users and power generators while diverting liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to Asia. The surplus has narrowed from +282 TWh (+80% or +2.41 standard deviations) at the end of the traditional winter drawdown season on March 31 (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, Gas Infrastructure Europe, June 8). Chartbook: Europe gas inventories and pricesInventories have responded to lower prices, with front-month futures prices down by more than 90% from its peak in August 2022. Lower prices in Europe are also diverting more LNG cargoes to price-sensitive customers in South and East Asia for power generation. Related columns:- Europe’s gas prices slide on swollen inventories (May 11, 2023)- Europe only has space for a small gas refill in 2023 (April 14, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: John Kemp, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Union, Gas Infrastructure, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, United Kingdom, Gas Infrastructure Europe, Chartbook, Europe, South, East Asia

LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 22 (Reuters) - The spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is in the sweet spot of being low enough to boost buying interest, but not so low that it sparks a surge in demand. The decline in spot LNG prices has seen demand in key Asian importers hold steady, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. The seasonal softness can be seen in Japan's May imports dropping to an expected 4.24 million tonnes from 5.0 million in April and 5.55 million in March. However, it's likely that the decline in spot prices will only boost demand from June onwards, and there are some early signs that this is already happening. The lower spot price in Asia is also working to boost buying interest in Europe, with May imports expected at 12.28 million tonnes, up a smidgeon from April's 12.27 million.

Western lead buyers remain reliant on China's exports to smooth out the global supply chain. WESTERN MARKET STILL TIGHTChinese inflows have helped nudge LME stocks higher. U.S. buyers are paying up to 20 cents/lb ($440 per tonne) over the LME cash price to secure spot metal, according to Fastmarkets. Europe, however, should fare better this year thanks to the restart of the Stolberg lead smelter in Germany. The difference between the pace of production and usage recovery explains the narrowing global supply gap this year.

Outright short positions have mushroomed by 68% to 58,157 contracts in the space of three weeks. Outright long positions have been scaled back to 41,987 contracts, almost half the level of the February peak when investors were betting on a full-throttle post-COVID recovery in China. Fund managers are now net short of CME copper to the tune of 16,170 contracts, the largest collective bear bet since August last year. Investment funds have slashed their net long positioning from 25,737 contracts on April 14 to just 4,813 contracts as of May 5. Investment funds slash LME copper long positions as mood turns bearishWEAK RECOVERYChina's recovery from the stringent zero-COVID policy of last year has so far fallen short of expectations from a metals perspective.

LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - The nickel market is facing a massive supply glut this year as surging Indonesian production continues to outpace global demand. The INSG expects only "mild growth" in the stainless sector this year. Taking up the slack from a weak stainless sector is demand for nickel from the electric vehicle (EV) battery sector. This changes the nature of this particular nickel surplus. LME stocks of Class I nickel continue to slide even as surplus builds in other parts of the supply chain.

LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Oil prices have fallen back after a brief spike triggered by the surprise production cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC+ on April 2. ROUTING THE BEARSIf one of the objectives for Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies was to drive bearish hedge funds out of the oil market, it seems to have succeeded. Following the cut, however, the number of short positions was reduced further to just 78 million barrels by April 11, near to its post-2010 low of just 65 million. In the past, Saudi Arabia's oil minister has described surprise production cuts intended to discourage hedge fund short selling as "ouching". Related columns:- Oil prices stall as short-covering rally is completed (April 17, 2023)- Surprise, squeezing the shorts, and revealed preferences (April 3, 2023)- Oil market has fully absorbed impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (March 9, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ Bitcoin volatility is back to pre-banking crisis lows, but crypto futures show investor optimism is building
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This means traders expect bitcoin prices will increase and may be willing to pay a premium for longer-dated futures contracts in anticipation of those higher prices. The banking crisis opened many investors' eyes to the range of bitcoin's nonspeculative use cases, specifically its potential as an alternative banking system. As worries about U.S. banks have waned and inflation has eased, some are concerned the fallout from the U.S. banking crisis could tilt the economy into recession this year. The drop in bitcoin volatility also comes as the stock market's "fear index," the Cboe Volatility Index , has fallen to about 17 from 26 at the height of the banking crisis. New catalysts for volatility While the banking crisis briefly put some life back into the crypto market , tension between the crypto industry and U.S. regulators remains as a dark cloud over it.

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - Europe needs to put a smaller-than-average volume of gas into storage this year after a mild winter left the region with record high inventories. Chartbook: Europe gas storageThe European Union and the United Kingdom have capacity to store around 1,129 terawatt-hours (TWh) of gas, according to data compiled by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). On April 1, the start of the traditional refill season, storage was 56% full - a record high for the time of year - with inventories of 633 TWh (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, April 14). DEEPENING CONTANGOPrices and spreads are now moving decisively to limit the amount of gas added to storage this summer. Related column:- Europe’s gas outlook transformed after mild winter (April 13, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ Reader mailbag: From M&A and MBAs to Elon Musk and bitcoin, all your questions answered
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

It's easier to leverage misinformation for personal gain within the world of finance than perhaps any other industry. I'm not the type to suggest the only real information you can get on the markets is from established news outlets. Do you think the legacy media is fearful of Elon Musk's new Twitter? I just think the discourse on Twitter is very different from what you'd find on a media website. My position on bitcoin, and the wider digital-currency ecosystem, is that it's too often a solution looking for a problem.

April 4 (Reuters) - Even as bitcoin flies high, investors are keeping their options open, judging by a record race to derivatives. Most options traders are betting on bitcoin prices jumping higher, with open interest in call options at 206,979 contracts on Deribit, more than double the bearish put options of 93,857. "We have reached the same levels of open interest as 2021 at half the prices, which means we have doubled." Options contracts give their buyers the right, but not an obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a fixed price in the future. Open interest in ether on Deribit features 1.7 million call options versus 656,158 puts.

☆ The stock market just flashed the first sign that investors think the Silicon Valley Bank crisis is over
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market just flashed its first sign that suggests the US banking crisis is over, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. The CBOE Volatility Index closed below the 20 level for the first time since Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. "That is generally a constructive sign and is certainly counter to the general gloom of investors post SVB-failure," Lee said. "The VIX term structure is also back into normal contango... this normalization of spread is often a sign investors see the worst of the crisis behind. Lee highlighted three other signals that would suggest the banking crisis is over.

Soldering demand from the electronics sector remains weak and investors in London and Shanghai continue to play the market from the short side. Surging purchases of electronic goods during lockdown were followed by sharply reduced spending as many Western consumers were hit by a cost-of-living squeeze. LME positioning reports show both investment funds and other financial players are currently net short of the London tin contract after the early-year rally went into reverse. LME tin price, stocks and cash-3s spreadSHANGHAI STOCKS UP, LONDON STOCKS DOWNReasons to be negative are more obvious in China. ShFE registered tin stocks have risen by 60% to 8,745 tonnes since the start of January.

Aluminium will be hardest hit with penal tariffs of 200% on imports of Russian metal, effective March 10, and imports of any third-country product containing Russian metal, effective April 10. This sort of "super contango" is the market's cry for financiers to pick up spare metal, particularly Russian metal. The Gwangyang deliveries are reported to be Russian aluminium being delivered by Glencore (GLEN.L), which has a long-term off-take deal with Rusal. The cash-to-threes time-spread will be a litmus test of financing appetite for Russian aluminium over the coming period. The only get-out for supplier nations is if they too impose minimum 200% tariffs on their own Russian aluminium imports.

Chartbook: U.S. gas prices and inventoriesFreeport’s eventual reopening should provide an outlet for some excess inventory, but with stocks in Europe also very full, exporters will have to compete for price-sensitive customers in Asia. Slumping futures prices will discourage drilling and incentivise electricity generators to run their gas-fired units for more hours at the expense of coal. Discounted futures prices will also boost combustion from the power sector, helping limit the accumulation of inventories this summer. Gas prices are now trading below the cost of coal, once the superior efficiency of gas-fired units is taken into account, which will encourage maximum gas burn this summer. Related columns:- Europe’s gas supply stabilises after colder weather (Reuters, February 3, 2023)- U.S. gas prices slump on production surplus (Reuters, January 12, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Combined gas inventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom were equivalent to 807 terawatt-hours (TWh) on Feb. 1, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. Stocks are projected to deplete to a post-winter low of 606 TWh (with a range from 468 TWh to 705 TWh), slightly down from a projection of 617 TWh (487-733 TWh) on Jan. 22. Chartbook: Europe gas stocks and pricesNorthwest Europe is more than 60% of the way through the heating season so there is increasing visibility about the likely carryout. But overall Europe’s gas inventories remain exceptionally high for the time of year, which has kept a lid on prices and spreads despite the drop in temperatures. Europe’s gas stocks at seasonal record high(Reuters, January 17, 2023)- Europe's gas prices slump to moderate storage build (Reuters, January 4, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked up as the market is looking towards a meeting of OPEC and its allies as well as a Federal Reserve rate decision and U.S. government data on crude and fuel stockpiles on Wednesday. Brent crude futures rose 45 cents, or 0.5%, to $85.91 a barrel at 1215 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude futures rose 62 cents, or 0.8%, to $79.49 a barrel. Tamer U.S. rate hike expectations helped lower the dollar index , which supported oil prices as a weaker greenback makes the commodity cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, according to Stephen Brennock, analyst at PVM. OPEC's oil output fell in January, as Iraqi exports dropped and Nigeria's output did not recover, with the 10 OPEC members pumping 920,000 barrels per day (bpd) below their targeted volumes under the OPEC+ agreement, a Reuters survey found.

LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices were broadly stable as the market is looking towards a meeting of OPEC and its allies as well as a Federal Reserve rate decision and U.S. government data on crude and fuel stockpiles on Wednesday. Brent crude futures dipped 11 cents, or 0.1%, to $85.35 a barrel at 0949 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude futures rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $78.95 a barrel. Tamer U.S. rate hike expectations helped lower the dollar index , which supported oil prices as a weaker greenback makes the commodity cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, according to Stephen Brennock, analyst at PVM. OPEC's oil output fell in January, as Iraqi exports dropped and Nigeria's output did not recover, with the 10 OPEC members pumping 920,000 barrels per day (bpd) below their targeted volumes under the OPEC+ agreement, a Reuters survey found.

☆ Oil prices settle steady on higher U.S. demand, weaker dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices closed steady on Tuesday after recovering from a near three-week low, drawing support from a weakening dollar and on data showing that demand for U.S. crude and petroleum products rose in November. The more active second-month Brent contract settled at $85.46 a barrel, up 96 cents or 1%, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $78.87 a barrel, up 97 cents or 1.3%. Crude benchmarks were also supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. However, Tuesday's weakness in front-month Brent prices may cause concern in the group, Yawger said. This widened the contango in the market, which occurs when futures prices show a commodity's price is expected to be much higher in the future.

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