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China's luxury market could face its worst quarter in four years, amid aggressive stimulus measures. AdvertisementLuxury brand investors are bracing to see if China's aggressive stimulus measures could be enough to pull its faltering luxury market out of the woods. While Beijing's recent moves to inject liquidity and lower interest rates have sparked some hope in pulling Chinese shoppers out of their spending slump, experts are skeptical of an immediate revival of China's luxury market. Related storiesWhile China's poor economic growth had deterred luxury spending for some, others continued their luxury shopping sprees — outside China. AdvertisementAlthough the outlook for China's luxury market remains bleak in the short run, Jefferies analysts are expecting a recovery as soon as 2025, Reuters reported.
Persons: bellwether, , Markus Hansen, LVMH, Patrice Nordey, Trajectry, Nordey, Marc Jacobs, Hermès Organizations: Service, Burberry, Reuters, CNBC, Jefferies Locations: China, Asia, Japan, Paris, Shanghai, LVMH
UnitedHealth Group provided a 2025 profit forecast below Wall Street estimates on Tuesday, saying it expects pressure across its government-supported health insurance businesses, and its shares fell 9%. The largest U.S. health insurer forecast a profit of as much as $30 per share. UnitedHealth's third-quarter medical costs also exceeded Wall Street estimates as the insurer paid out more due to persistently high demand for healthcare services while receiving lower reimbursements on government-backed plans. The company also trimmed the higher end of its 2024 adjusted profit forecast by 25 cents to $27.75 per share. Despite the rise in medical costs, UnitedHealth beat Wall Street estimates for adjusted profit by 15 cents due to increased memberships across its businesses.
Persons: Andrew, UnitedHealth Organizations: UnitedHealth, Medicare, CVS Health, Wall Locations: United States
Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign laid out what it sees as her path to victory in Pennsylvania in a memo shared exclusively with NBC News ahead of Monday night’s rally in bellwether Erie County. “The Harris campaign’s path to win Pennsylvania capitalizes on Trump’s unprecedented weakness in the suburbs,” the memo, which also highlighted the campaign’s focus on Haley voters, reads. “They can point to the suburbs, but they’re losing ground in places like Philadelphia,” a Trump campaign official said. Kush Desai, the Trump campaign’s Pennsylvania spokesperson, highlighted Obama’s visit as a sign the Harris team was scrambling. Speaking with NBC News, Pennsylvania state Sen. Vincent Hughes said he could “understand the frustration” Obama expressed.
Persons: Kamala Harris ’, Harris, Joe Biden’s, Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, , Haley, Trump, Brendan McPhillips, Tim Walz, Hillary Clinton, McPhillips, , Biden, Elon, It’s, We’ve, Barack, Obama, They’ve, Kush Desai, isn’t, ” Desai, ” Obama, Sen, Vincent Hughes, Let’s, Donald Trump’s, He’s, ” Hughes, it’s Organizations: NBC, Democratic, Pennsylvania, Trump, Philadelphia Inquirer, New York Times, Siena College, Marist College, Biden, Quinnipiac University, Times, Street, Minnesota Gov, America PAC, Trump campaign’s, Black, undecideds, NBC News Locations: Pennsylvania, bellwether Erie County, Siena, reddest, Harris ’ Pennsylvania, Johnstown, Lancaster, Rochester, Philadelphia, Bucks, Luzerne, Beaver, Trump, Pittsburgh
“I really do believe Erie is the top bellwether county in Pennsylvania. Certainly top five in the nation,” Fetterman said, citing its mix of urban and rural areas. Tim Walz, the vice presidential nominee, will campaign this week in Wisconsin and western Pennsylvania, the Harris official said. The Trump campaign is seeking to capitalize on a new wave of polls that indicate Harris’ edge is shrinking. Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg said Harris should work to limit the margins of defeat in rural areas.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Trump, Joe Biden, , Sen, John Fetterman, , ” Fetterman, Harris, Obama, Josh Shapiro, Fetterman, “ Trump, Taylor, Biden, Governor Walz, Harris can’t, Tuesday’s, Tim Walz, Tony Fabrizio, Chris LaCivita, Susie Wiles, Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg, Hillary Clinton, Walz, Nikki Haley, Paulette Aniskoff, Liz Cheney, ” Aniskoff Organizations: Pennsylvania, Democratic, Republican, Erie County, Senate, Census, Gov, Trump, Sun, Harris, Black, Minnesota Gov, Congressional, GOP Locations: ERIE, Pa, Erie County, Pennsylvania, “ Pennsylvania, Erie, Lake Erie, Ohio, New York, Pittsburgh, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Oakland County, Milwaukee, La Crosse, Green Bay, Minnesota, Nebraska’s, Omaha, America, California
White women are a huge voting bloc, and since 2000, the GOP presidential ticket has won a majority of them. In Galvanize Action’s June poll, when President Joe Biden was still the presumptive Democratic nominee, he and Trump were in a dead heat among white women. “What we hear from [moderate white women] is, even if I would never choose to have an abortion, this is a freedom that women that I love deserve and should be protected,” Payne said. The trend has been especially pronounced among younger white women ages 18-34. White women 35 to 54 years old remain in the GOP column, per this data, and at 55 and older, the trend line shows a toss-up between both parties.
Persons: Dr, Theresa Wheeling, Donald Trump, , Trump, Roe, Kamala Harris, , Harris, , Jackie Payne, Harris ’, Galvanize, Joe Biden, ” Payne, Payne, It’s Organizations: Republican, ” Wheeling, NBC News, Trump . ”, GOP, Trump, Galvanize Action’s, Democratic, Republicans, Biden, NBC, Wheeling Locations: ERIE, Pa, Wade, Wheeling, Erie , Pennsylvania, Erie
"The risks to Singapore's inflation outlook are more balanced compared to three months ago," MAS said in a statement, adding that growth momentum has picked up. The Monetary Authority of Singapore said it will maintain the prevailing rate of appreciation of its exchange rate-based policy band known as the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, or S$NEER. Capital Economics markets economist Shivaan Tandon concurred, saying "the risk of keeping monetary policy too tight for too long will take center stage soon prompting the central bank to pivot". Singapore is often seen as a bellwether for global growth as its international trade dwarfs its domestic economy. As a heavily trade-reliant economy, Singapore uses a unique method of managing monetary policy, tweaking the exchange rate of its dollar against a basket of currencies instead of domestic interest rates like most other countries.
Persons: Selena Ling, Shivaan Tandon Organizations: MAS, Monetary Authority, Capital Economics Locations: Singapore, Singapore's
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average powered to new highs on Friday and capped off a winning week as banking behemoths ushered in a promising start to the third-quarter earnings season. The broad index gained 0.6% to end at 5,815.03, while the Dow rallied 409.74 points, or nearly 1%, to finish at 42,863.86. The S&P and Nasdaq jumped 1.1% each, while the Dow toted a 1.2% gain. A strong start to the third-quarter earnings season provided a lift to stocks. That included a cooler-than-expected September producer price index reading after the consumer price index increased slightly more than expected.
Persons: , , Craig Sterling, JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Kim Forrest, Forrest, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, David Russell, Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, Bokeh Capital Partners, , Federal, Federal Reserve
On Wednesday, House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., joined Rep. Susan Wild, D-Pa., here on a tour of Latino-owned small businesses. Though she is the incumbent and older than Mackenzie, Wild, 67, labeled Mackenzie, 42, a “career politician,” noting he has served in elected office for 12 years — twice as long as her. “She has a failed record on border security,” Mackenzie said in a Thursday interview after a rally with Johnson in Hellertown. “Every state is a border state, as we say, because they opened the border wide, and ya’ll, they did it intentionally, OK? A recent NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll found that support for Harris among Latino voters is at 54%, the lowest level in the past four presidential election cycles.
Persons: Pete Aguilar, Susan Wild, Mike Johnson, Ryan Mackenzie, Hakeem Jeffries, Katherine Clark, Mackenzie, , Wild, ” Wild, , Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Aguilar, Billy Joel, , Matthew Tuerk, Tuerk, Scott Wong, Del Abuelo, Kamala Harris ’, Charlie Dent, Milou Mackenzie, “ She’s, Greenberg Lemus, Del, she’s, ” Mackenzie, Johnson, ” Johnson, Trump, Harris, he’s, hasn’t, Victor Martinez, He’s, Tim Walz, Martinez, It’s, She’s, mischaracterize, he's, you’re Organizations: Congressional, House Democratic, GOP, Republican, NBC, Republicans, Census, Allentown, El, El Tablazo, Democratic, La, Democrat, Steel, Bethlehem Steel, NBC News, Telemundo, CNBC, Allentown’s Puerto Rican Parade, Dominican, ” Radio, Mega Locations: ALLENTOWN, Pa, , Lehigh, Hellertown, D, Easton, Allentown, Pennsylvania, Aguilar, Lehigh Valley, Philadelphia, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Colombia, Guatemala, Venezuela, New York, New Jersey, U.S, Bethlehem, Dominican, Wild, Harrisburg, Mexican American, Allentown —, Reading, Puerto, , Mexican
Another key US inflation gauge fell in September
  + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
CNN —Inflation for US producers slowed further in September, adding to hopes that prices aren’t getting jacked up before they get to consumers. The annual rate is running faster than the 1.6% gain economists expected, according to FactSet estimates; however, August’s rate was revised higher from the initial 1.7% estimate, so prices still fell in September. PPI is important because it’s often seen as a bellwether for the price increases consumers will wind up paying down the line. On Thursday, the Consumer Price Index — a measurement of average price changes for commonly purchased goods and services — cooled to 2.4%, its lowest rate since February 2021. As a result, Fed officials have now shifted from trying to contain inflation to trying to keep the job market healthy, the other half of their so-called dual mandate.
Persons: Price, that’s Organizations: CNN, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Federal Reserve
After 15 years of bullishness on Honeywell , JPMorgan is finally moving to the sidelines. In a Thursday note, the Wall Street bank downgraded shares of the Charlotte-based industrial manufacturer to a neutral rating from overweight. Shares of Honeywell are up just 1% on the year but stand to gain almost 10% over the next year, based on Tusa's updated price target. HON YTD mountain HON YTD chart While Tusa said Honeywell shares are cheap, the company's planned divestitures are a short-term headwind. Still, Tusa applauded Honeywell's defensive growth profile, extended visibility from a long cycle backlog and renewed focus on growth under a new CEO.
Persons: Stephen Tusa, YTD, Tusa, divestitures Organizations: Honeywell, JPMorgan Locations: Charlotte
US stocks rose after cool inflation data suggested more room for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.1% in August, matching estimates. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Friday after cool inflation data suggested that the Federal Reserve has more room to cut interest rates. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is considered the Fed's preferred inflation measure, increased 0.1% in August, in-line with economist estimates. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Index rose 2.2%, slightly below economist estimates of 2.3%.
Persons: , Clark Bellin, Bellin, Sonu Varghese, that's, Varghese Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Bellwether Wealth, Business, Carson Group, Here's
In her three years as a dating coach Kelsey Wonderlin has learned that the majority of the 200 people she's counseled care about how much their potential mate earns. Evaluating a person based on their salary might seem shallow, but how someone spends their money can be a bellwether of their priorities. However, outright asking how much a person makes on a first date is not the right way, or the right time, to figure out if you two align on how you handle money. "On a first date that would be a socially unacceptable question to ask," Wonderlin says. "It's an unrealistic viewpoint that if someone makes this certain number everything will be great," Wonderlin says.
Persons: Kelsey Wonderlin, she's, Wonderlin
US stocks were mixed Friday, with the Dow closing at a record high while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged lower. All three major averages achieved a three-week win streak as investors cheer a resilient economy and cooling inflation. Investors await key jobs data next week, including the September jobs report on Friday morning. But the main event is next Friday, when the September jobs report is released. AdvertisementAccording to Interactive Brokers senior economist José Torres, the jobs report could have a big impact on the broader market.
Persons: , Dow Jones, Clark Bellin, José Torres, Torres Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Service, Fed, Labor, Survey, ADP, Interactive Locations: Here's
Markets are bracing for the latest GDP revision, jobless claims, and PCE inflation data in the coming days. Traders are still pricing in considerable rate cuts well into next year, per the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, ending a record-setting streak of gains as traders looked ahead to coming economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 300 points and the S&P 500 slipped from record highs, ending the day about 0.2% lower. Traders are still expecting steep rate cuts over the course of the next year.
Persons: , Scott Wren, Wells Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, US, Micron Technologies, Micron Locations: Wells Fargo, East, Ukraine
CNBC Daily Open: Recession concerns still linger
  + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Brendan McDermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. In terms of financial markets, financial firm BTIG sees a possible pullback. Last week's burst of euphoria was mostly driven by anticipation and celebration of the Fed's rate cut. Markets this week will look at the hard data coming out, like the preliminary measure of PMI, consumer confidence and PCE report.
Persons: QCOM, Brendan McDermid, It's, Piper Sandler, Nancy Lazar, Lazar, BTIG, Jonathan Krinsky, , Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Friday, FedEx, Nasdaq, Dow, PMI Locations: New York City, U.S
Stephanie Keith | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. In terms of financial markets, financial firm BTIG sees a possible pullback. Last week's burst of euphoria was mostly driven by anticipation and celebration of the Fed's rate cut. Markets this week will look at the hard data coming out, like GDP figures for the second quarter, consumer confidence and PCE report.
Persons: Stephanie Keith, It's, Piper Sandler, Nancy Lazar, Lazar, BTIG, Jonathan Krinsky, , Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Friday, FedEx, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: New York City
FedEx earnings miss could signal a slowing economy
  + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
CNN —FedEx said a weaker industrial economy produced a “challenging” quarter that caused it to trim its outlook for later this year, a sign of possible cooling in the wider economy. “The labor market is in solid condition, and our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there,” Powell said. “You can say that about the whole economy: The US economy is in good shape. The labor market is at a strong pace. Shares of FedEx had been up 21% year-to-date through Thursday’s close before Friday’s decline.
Persons: Rajesh Subramaniam, ” Subramaniam, John Dietrich, Subramaniam, , , we’re, Jerome Powell, ” Powell Organizations: CNN, FedEx, Federal Reserve
FedEx reported a steep quarterly profit drop and lowered its full-year revenue forecast on Thursday after its customers continued to trade down from speedy, pricey delivery to cheaper, slower options. Shares in the Memphis-based delivery giant tumbled almost 11% to $267.74 in after-hours trading, dragging shares in rival United Parcel Service down 2.5%. The shift to less-profitable packages is squeezing profits at FedEx and UPS. Subramaniam is leading a complex restructuring at FedEx that involves slashing billions of dollars in overheads and merging its separate Ground and Express delivery units. On an adjusted basis, profit fell to $3.60 per share from $4.55 per share a year ago.
Persons: Raj Subramaniam, Subramaniam Organizations: FedEx, United Parcel Service, UPS, Reuters, Federal, United States Postal Service, FedEx Freight Locations: Memphis, China, Shein, U.S
Trump won the presidency in 2016 by stunning Democrat Hillary Clinton to win all three states by a combined margin of about 80,000 votes. But, as in other states, Democrats have been concerned about the risk of depressed turnout and some gains for Trump among Black voters in Philadelphia. Eight years later, the two states split again, when Roosevelt comfortably won Pennsylvania and Michigan narrowly went to Republican Wendell Willkie. This trio of states has arguably become the most consistent tipping point in American politics. In the nine elections since 1920 when they split their vote, the candidate who carried two of these three states won seven times.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump –, Trump, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Harris, Bob Shrum, Shrum, Tad Devine, , Biden, PRRI, William Frey, Tim Marema, don’t, Mason, Dixon, Barack Obama, Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, Republican Sen, Ron Johnson, Dane County, Ben Wikler, Pete Giangreco, , You’ve, That’s, Gene Ulm, Roe, Wade, Whitmer, Branden Snyder, It’s, Clinton, Dante Chinni, White, ” Chinni, they’ve, They’ve, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, Ruffini, “ I’m, ” Ruffini, Geoff Garin, Michael Dukakis, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, James Buchanan, John C, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Herbert Hoover, Republican Wendell Willkie, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Theodore Roosevelt’s, Al Gore, John Kerry, Republican Thomas Dewey, Hubert Humphrey, Garin Organizations: CNN, White House, Democratic, Michigan, Wisconsin, AdImpact, Trump, Center, University of Southern, , Republicans, Survey, Blacks, of Labor Statistics, Public Religion Research, Whites, GOP, Brookings Metro, for Rural, doesn’t, Keystone State, Republican, Center for Rural, Democrats, Biden, Black, White, Wisconsin , Michigan Democrats, Detroit, Electoral, American Communities Project, , Democrat, Pennsylvania, Republican Party Locations: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina , Arizona, Nevada, Flint , Michigan, University of Southern California, California , New York, Illinois, Texas, Florida, Ohio, . Michigan, Wisconsin’s, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Detroit, Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington, Madison, Dane, Dane County, Eau Claire, Appleton, La Crosse, Outagamie, Winnebago, Green Bay, Green, Chicago, Scranton, Wilkes, Barre, ” Michigan, “ Michigan, Gaza, Wisconsin , Michigan, United States, “ Pennsylvania, Ulm, Pittsburgh, Butler , Pennsylvania, Republican George H.W ., Fremont, North Carolina, Michigan , Pennsylvania,
But as a general rule, economists tend to agree that, for U.S. consumers, higher tariffs tend to mean higher prices. "They'll be buying things at higher prices than they otherwise would." Still, a number of organizations say that Trump's new tariff policy would have a negative tangible effect on American consumers' finances. Plus, financial experts say a more aggressive tariff policy could be viewed as a form of economic saber-rattling. It tends to lead to higher prices for consumers in both countries."
Persons: Trump, Howard Gleckman, Kamala Harris, Biden, Donald Trump, Harris, George Ball, Sanders Morris, Clark Bellin, Sam Millette Organizations: Urban, Brookings Tax Policy Center, CNBC, U.S, Trump, U.S ., American Progress, Peterson Institute for International, Commonwealth Financial Network Locations: China, U.S,
Wholesale inflation slowed again last month
  + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
CNN —US producer prices continued to cool overall in August, showing that inflation across the economy is improving. But a closely watched measure of underlying inflation remained stubbornly elevated, reflecting the bumpiness in reining in price hikes. August’s monthly increase was driven by a 0.4% gain on the services side, as goods prices were unchanged, thanks in part to falling energy prices. Economists had expected that prices would increase 0.2% on a monthly basis and 1.8% annually, according to FactSet estimates. Excluding the more volatile categories of food and energy, core PPI advanced 0.3% from July, countering a 0.2% decline seen the month before.
Persons: Price Organizations: CNN, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Federal Reserve Locations: US, reining
Year to date, the S & P 500 machinery group is up only 8% versus the S & P 500 industrial sector, which is up 12%. The S & P 500 itself which is up 16%. We remain underweight industrials generally, and machinery stocks specifically. Here's S & P 500 machinery industry comprising 17 stocks with a total market capitalization of $764 billion: The 2-panel chart below depicts the S & P 500 machinery industry marking new highs the past 18 months, yet a series of lower relative highs to the market. Top Panel: S & P 500 Machinery Industry Group Bottom panel: Machinery's Relative Performance to the S & P 500 Index Caterpillar chart below... we're sellers here.
Persons: Here's, Carter Braxton Worth Organizations: Caterpillar, Machinery Industry, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S
Boeing should be kicked out of the Dow
  + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The United States is no longer primarily an industrial economy, and the changes in the index over the last 126 years reflect that evolution. Beyond that, there are two other major issues indicating that Boeing no longer belongs in the Dow. Trying to stay relevantBoeing obviously wasn’t an early component of the Dow — the index started seven years before the first plane flew at Kitty Hawk, and 20 years before Boeing was incorporated. In 2020, the Dow dropped ExxonMobil, then struggling with low oil prices during the pandemic, and added tech company Salesforce, then on a tear. Boeing declined to comment when asked about its membership in the Dow.
Persons: , Ron Epstein, Dow, Max, That’s, Sam Stovall, Kitty Hawk, , ” Stovall, Stovall, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Boeing, Bank of America, Steel, Disney, Dow, Alaska Airlines, Federal Aviation Administration, CFRA Research, Electric, Lockheed, GE, GE Aerospace, ExxonMobil, Airbus Locations: New York, United States, Alaska, Ukraine
Daniel Pinto, president and chief operating officer of JPMorgan Chase, speaks during the Semafor 2024 World Economy Summit in Washington, DC, on April 18, 2024. JPMorgan Chase shares fell 7% Tuesday after the bank's president told analysts that expectations for net interest income and expenses in 2025 were too optimistic. "I think that that number will be lower," Pinto said. When interest rates decline, new loans made by the bank and new bonds it purchases will yield less. When it comes to trading, JPMorgan said it expects third-quarter revenue to be flat to up about 2% from a year ago, while investment banking fees are headed for a 15% jump.
Persons: Daniel Pinto, JPMorgan Chase, Pinto, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Summit, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve Locations: Washington ,, New York, NII
CNN —The US economy appears to be on a knife’s edge, and Friday’s jobs report will be the deciding factor as to the next direction. Economists are expecting that the August report should reaffirm that the labor market is merely cooling versus outright weakening. Inflation had cooled, and the labor market was rolling right along and doing its part to keep consumers spending and the economy churning. Friday’s jobs report should provide further reassurance that the labor market is merely softening and not collapsing, economists predict. “It would be a mistake to define the labor market as being excessively weak at this stage.”Instead, the signals indicate that the labor market has moved from being extremely strong and into better balance, she said.
Persons: ” Tuan Nguyen, , ” Karin Kimbrough, , ” Oliver Allen, ” Allen, , Andrew Challenger, Nick Bunker, Pantheon’s Allen, Beryl “, Mike Skordeles Organizations: CNN, RSM, Federal, LinkedIn, Labor, Department of Labor, “ Companies, Pantheon Macroeconomics, BLS, Employers, ADP, Challenger, Technology, , North America, Bank of America Locations: US, Michigan, Texas
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