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☆ S&P 500 to correct by 10% by end of September, so get defensive, Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-04 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should position themselves defensively as the S & P 500 could drop about 10% before the end of September, according to Stifel Financial. That would mark a more than 10% decline from where the S & P 500 finished Monday's trading session. The S & P 500 closed out 2023 at about 4,770. That can, in turn, push the S & P 500 price-to-earnings multiple down by about two points, weighing on the stock market. Discounted for inflation, the S & P 500 is slightly below where it was about two and a half years ago.

Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister Organizations: Financial, Central, Federal Reserve, Federal

☆ A way to profit from a negative reversal in Chipotle if the consumer continues to weaken
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Investors may not have sufficiently accounted for the impact of stretched consumer finances on the discretionary sector. We'll review the dichotomy going on in the consumer discretionary sector and give a bearish trade on an outperforming stock once thought to be immune from some of the pressures. To some extent, the haves and have-nots divide explains the difference between the consumer discretionary stocks that have outperformed versus underperformed this year. Horton, YTD However, two industry groups within the consumer discretionary sector have not followed this pattern to the same degree. The trade: Chipotle The best-performing restaurant in the consumer discretionary sector so far this year is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) up a market-crushing 36.8%.

Persons: Roland Garros, Ralph Lauren, Hermes, Versace, Prada, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Van Heusen, Horton, TOL, D.R, Tesla, Darden, YTD, Chipotle Organizations: Monaco, PVH Corp, IZOD, Carnival Corp, CCL, GM, Grill Inc, Darden, Starbucks Locations: Royal Caribbean, Horton

☆ Oil prices slip despite OPEC+ production cut extension
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices fell early on Monday, despite a move by producer group OPEC+ to extend deep output cuts well into 2025. This includes 3.66 million bpd of cuts that were due to expire at the end of 2024, and voluntary cuts by eight members of 2.2 million bpd to expire by the end of June 2024. But on Sunday, the group agreed to extend the cuts of 3.66 million bpd by a year until the end of 2025. It will also prolong the cuts of 2.2 million bpd by three months until end-September 2024, before phasing it out over a year from October 2024 to September 2025. "The communication of a gradual unwind reflects a strong desire to bring back production of several members given high spare capacity."

Persons: Brent, Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: . West Texas, of, Petroleum, U.S Locations: Russia, OPEC, East, Gaza, Israel, Iran

☆ Mayfield: Bearish sentiment is good for bull markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMayfield: Bearish sentiment is good for bull marketsRoss Mayfield, Investment Strategy Analyst at Baird, discusses the markets and economy.

Persons: Ross, Baird Organizations: Investment Locations: Ross Mayfield

☆ A longtime skeptic on Best Buy now says buy the stock — here's what changed their mind
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

A longtime bearish analyst on Best Buy has jumped over to our side the debate after its head-turning earnings report last week. Barry said Best Buy expects to have the largest assortment of AI PCs on sale later this month from brands such as Dell, Microsoft and HP, with "more than 40% of the assortment retail exclusive to Best Buy." Based on Monday's prices, Best Buy would need to gain nearly 59% to take out its old highs. Considering the innovation pipeline ahead, Citi analysts are optimistic Best Buy shares can go even higher. People walk into a Best Buy store in a Brooklyn mall on August 29, 2023 in New York City.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Corie Barry, Barry, Jim, it's, Jim Cramer's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Citigroup, Citi, Dell, Microsoft, HP, Nasdaq, CNBC, Getty Locations: Brooklyn, New York City

☆ 5 moves investors can make as they navigate extreme speculation with the potential for huge losses, according to elite investor Gary Shilling
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The investing environment is loaded with risks, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. AdvertisementStock market investors are facing the risk of huge losses as the economy slows, and there are five rules they should follow to prepare for future headwinds, according to elite forecaster Gary Shilling. The stock market's setup also looks troubling. Shilling has advised investors in Chinese stocks to switch to Indian assets for months, citing factors like better economic growth prospects and population growth. AdvertisementShilling has maintained a notably bearish view on stocks and the economy, despite more investors warming up to the possibility of soft landing.

Persons: Gary Shilling, —, Shilling, Steer Organizations: Service, Stock, Reserve, Nvidia Locations: China, India

☆ A 32-year market vet shares 2 charts showing stocks could be entering a major market peak — and warns a coming recession will send the S&P 500 plummeting more than 60%
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It's been a near-frictionless seven months for the S&P 500, with the benchmark index up a cool 26% since late October. While earnings were just fine in the first quarter, if they start to decline alongside a slowing economy, stocks will go with them. He sees the S&P 500 declining by more than 50% when all is said and done. The current inversion of 580 days implies a drop of around 65% for the S&P 500. Those fears have since dissipated, and the S&P 500 has rallied 47% since October 2022.

Persons: It's, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, BullAndBearProfits.com Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Bullandbearprofits.com Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Marko Kolanovic, Albert Edwards Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Fed, OVOM

☆ Nvidia will be key to market's direction as Wall Street heads into the summer with May jobs report on deck
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Nvidia is the key to how stocks will perform in the next few months as investors head into a seasonally weak period for markets, with the macroeconomic picture once again a center of attention. Stocks capped a winning month in May after a strong earnings season and signs of easing inflation buoyed investor optimism. .VIX YTD mountain CBOE Volatility Index In fact, the CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's fear gauge, is currently at 14. The broad market index was last around 5,220. Traders will have to rely on macroeconomic data for the next several weeks, including the May jobs report that's on deck next Friday.

Persons: Stocks, what's, Olivier Sarfati, Sarfati, Jensen Huang's, Josh Brown, Jonathan Krinsky, Jeff deGraff, CNBC's, deGraff, Rob Ginsberg, JC O'Hara, Roth, Dow Jones, Thomas Urano, Jobs, Cook Organizations: Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Ritholtz Wealth, Semiconductors, VanEck Semiconductor, Macro, Wolfe Research, Advisory, PMI, Manufacturing, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Body, Services PMI, Labor, Girls Global, University of, District of Columbia, Consumer Credit Locations: Smucker, Washington

☆ A hedge on chip stocks if some of the profit-taking in Nvidia continues
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After the first sign this week of potential profit taking in Nvidia (NVDA) since it's monster post-earning pop, now might be the time to hedge for further downside in the semiconductor space. I want to utilize SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) to express my protective and bearish strategy. However, I do have concern about the stock's "over ownership" and investors who have become conditioned to NVDA's massive earnings beats. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia (NVDA), YTD The protective trade strategy I want to implement is to define upside risk while seeking to finance the whole option strategy which will profit if we indeed see Semi's move lower. This also serves as a short-term hedge to any and all exposure you may have to the AI theme.

Persons: SPDR, NVDA Organizations: Nvidia, VanEck Semiconductor, Semiconductor

☆ Your guide to Wall Street analyst research and how to use it like the investing pros
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Wall Street sell-side research is a key part of the financial markets, written by analysts working for brokerage firms, investment banks and other institutions. Research reports An analyst's published research report might include a company overview with basic information about a company's business, products and position in the relevant market. This is especially true when an analyst is first initiating research coverage into a particular company or industry. Analyst recommendations affect stock prices every day , especially if an analyst or her firm is highly reputable or believed to hold expertise in a particular area. Contrarian indicators Analyst recommendations can occasionally act as a contrarian indicator , too.

Persons: Merrill Lynch, Henry Blodgett, Merrill Organizations: Research, Wall, Sarbanes, Oxley, Global, Securities and Exchange Commission, National Association of Securities Dealers, CNBC Pro Locations: Sarbanes

☆ The charts say more pain for Salesforce could be ahead in the short-term before bottoming
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( David Keller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

What do the charts say after this sudden 20% drop in price? After making a new all-time high of around $318 in early March, Salesforce demonstrated choppy, sideways price action into mid-April. A gap lower in price pushed CRM below its 50-day moving average, which often serves as an early warning sign of an impending trend change. From mid-April until this week, Salesforce has again settled into a sideways price range, this time between $268 and $290. While CRM was in a somewhat precarious position leading into this week, the gap lower post-earnings represented a sudden revaluation for this former technology leader.

Persons: Let's, Salesforce, we'd, it's, David Keller Organizations: CRM, CMT

A small group of stocks are on the verge of forming a worrisome chart pattern known as a "death cross ." A death cross occurs when a stock's 50-day moving average falls below its 200-day average. Baxter International Stock in medical equipment maker Baxter International is also on the verge of a death cross. Other stocks nearing a death cross chart pattern include Illinois Tool Works and Abbott Laboratories . While the golden cross suggests a potential uptrend, ITW is now approaching the bearish death cross chart pattern only five months later.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Bonnie Herzog, Clorox, TD Cowen, Joshua Jennings, Baxter, Jennings, Abbott's Organizations: Nasdaq, CNBC, Baxter International Stock, Baxter, Abbott Laboratories ., Tool, Abbott Laboratories, U.S . Food, Drug Administration Locations: Hillrom, Illinois, U.S

☆ The stock market rally is running on fumes as earnings growth can't keep up with sky-high prices, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is primed for a correction as equity valuations hit historically high levels, according to economist David Rosenberg. AdvertisementThe stock market is "primed for a correction" as earnings valuations hit historically high levels, according to economist David Rosenberg. That suggests that the expansion in the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings valuation multiple to 21x from 18x in October is getting stretched. Wall Street consensus for the S&P 500's 2024 earnings per share is $245, which is the same forecast today as it was in October, before the stock market staged a near-30% rally. AdvertisementThat has informed Rosenberg's consistently bearish view, but the economist did say that high valuations on their own do not mean the stock market can't go higher from here.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, " Rosenberg, Rosenberg's Organizations: Service

☆ The charts say this energy stock is showing signs of leadership that must be respected
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

One of the best performing stocks in the underperforming energy sector looks ready for another potential up leg, according to the charts. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has underperformed the S & P 500 thus far in 2024, but with a year-to-date gain of about 8.5%, it's actually the fifth best sector out of 11. From the closing low in May 2023 to its recent closing high on April 5, it gained a whopping 109%. However, when the stock finally emerged from that condition a year ago, demand resurfaced, and the strong advance commenced. Lastly, even after MPC's recent 20% decline, the stock has drastically outperformed both the XLE Energy ETF and the S & P 500 since the COVID lows.

Persons: it's, haven't, Said, XLE, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Marathon Petroleum, MPC, Marathon Oil, ConocoPhillips, XLE Energy

☆ A bearish bet on homebuilders that profits if the consumer starts to weaken
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Tony Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Recent weakness in the homebuilders, which are dependent on the consumer, suggests that they may be heading in the direction of the discretionary sector. This suggests that XHB is likely to revisit the bottom of the trading range and potentially break below it. This weakness suggests that it will revisit the $140 support level and potentially break lower, especially as momentum has recently turned negative. So I'm going to use the June 28 weekly expiration and buy the $145/$135 put vertical at a $3.82 debit. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: XHB, DHI Organizations: DR Horton

☆ The S&P 500 could plunge as much as 70% this cycle as markets hit a 'motherlo' of FOMO extremes, famed fund manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Legendary investor John Hussman says the latest stock rally is rooted in the extreme fear of missing out. FOMO factors have surged in markets, and stock prices could fall 50%-70% this cycle. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The legendary bear, famed for predicting the 2000 and 2008 crashes, reiterated that equities could drop as much as 70% this cycle. "Even the more conventional (but less reliable) S&P 500 price/forward operating earnings multiple is at levels that have no rivals except surrounding the 2000 and 2022 peaks," Hussman said.

Persons: John Hussman, —, Hussman, Dow Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust

☆ A bearish options trade on a beer stock that's breaking down
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-28 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

When the DI+ is above the DI-, the stock is considered to be in an uptrend. Conversely, when the DI- is above the DI+, the stock is in a downtrend. The trade: Bear put spread Most trading platforms will offer a bear put spread (or long put spread) as a trade type and automatically construct the trade for you. If SAM’s stock price starts rising against my directional bias, I would want to cap my losses at 50% of my investment (i.e., $250). THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET.

Persons: Bear, Nishant Pant Organizations: Boston Beer, RSI

☆ Market crash indicator with spotty track record 'Hindenburg Omen' triggered last week
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-28 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The ominous "Hindenburg Omen" was triggered last week, StockCharts.com chief market technician David Keller noted Monday. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 "It has a track record of calling major market tops so when the Hindenburg Omen fires it's something that investors should take note of. The Russell 2000 is up just 2.5% in 2024, while the S & P 500 has advanced 11%. If anything, the technician regards the Hindenburg Omen more as an indicator of new market leadership than a harbinger of a downturn. A loss of the consumer discretionary sector, which makes up roughly one-tenth of the S & P 500, could mean a deeper drawdown of 10% to 20% in the index.

Persons: David Keller, JC O'Hara, Roth, O'Hara, Russell, He's Organizations: Street, Dow Jones

☆ Billionaire 'Bond King' Bill Gross says a Trump win would be 'disruptive' for markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-27 | by ( Shubhangi Goel | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Bill Gross warned that a second Trump presidency could harm bond markets. Gross highlighted that Trump's tax cuts and spending programs would worsen the fiscal deficit. AdvertisementDonald Trump winning the presidential election would be bad news for the bond markets, said "Bond King" Bill Gross. A Trump presidency would worsen US fiscal deficits, which would hurt bonds, the billionaire investor and PIMCO cofounder said in an interview with the Financial Times. "Trump is the more bearish of the candidates simply because his programs advocate continued tax cuts and more expensive things," Gross said.

Persons: Bill Gross, Trump, Gross, —, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Business

☆ The 'Oracle of Wall Street' shares a secret sign of economic strength 'hiding in plain sight': Young Americans are outspending cash-poor baby boomers
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-25 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Younger Americans are finally outspending baby boomers, former Wall Street bank analyst Meredith Whitney recently noted. That's an encouraging sign for the US economy, which most economists believe is healthy, though some bearish prognosticators have serious doubts. There are several possible explanations for these findings and numerous takeaways from them, the "Oracle of Wall Street" said. However, young Americans' spending power shouldn't be discounted, as Whitney suggested that they command relatively high salaries since they attend college at higher rates. A continued economic expansion would be especially crucial for Gen Zers and millennials, who are entering the workforce or establishing their careers.

Persons: —, Meredith Whitney, That's, Whitney, Zers, relaunching, boomers, it's, Gen Zers Organizations: Service, Business, Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, Target, Starbucks, BI, Walmart, American, American Express Locations: Street

☆ Why one analyst sees a 20% drop for Nvidia stock in the next 18 months
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Nvidia stock can't keep climbing forever, according to DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria. The Wall Street veteran sees a decline of as much as 20% in Nvidia stock in the next few years. That trend will falter, Luria predicts, and he says he's anticipating a double-digit decline for the chip maker's stock within the next 18 months. Advertisement"My estimates for 2026 are the lowest on the Street," Luria said. AdvertisementLuria has warned of a long-term decline for Nvidia stock for months, though investors are still feeling pretty bullish.

Persons: Gil Luria, —, who's, Luria, It's, Tesla Organizations: Wall Street, Nvidia, Service

☆ The key for markets next week will be inflation as stocks try to maintain record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The news will come with stocks on pace to close out a strong month that included all-time highs. Stocks are poised to end an impressive month of gains after some softer inflation data released earlier in May and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings revived investor exuberance in the market rally. On Friday, the 30-stock Dow was on pace to snap a five-week win streak, falling by 2% for the period. Pesky inflation, consumer weakness The April personal income and expenditures report, which includes the PCE inflation reading, could confirm the recent trend of cooling inflation. Pending Home Sales (April) Earnings: Costco Wholesale , Ulta Beauty , NetApp , Best Buy , Dollar General , Hormel Foods Friday, May 31 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Dow, Mike Dickson, Dickson, FactSet, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Steph, it's, Christian Mueller, Glissmann, Mueller Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Horizon Investments, Fed, PCE, Robinhood, Costco Wholesale, Software, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Hormel, Chicago PMI Locations: Chicago

☆ Charles Schwab CEO says inflation is the 'No.1 concern' among investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

In a Thursday interview with CNBC's Jim Cramer, Charles Schwab CEO Walt Bettinger said inflation is the most pressing concern among the brokerage firm's 35 million clients. "We just put out today one of our regular studies on client sentiment, and what's happened is, inflation has now become the No. 1 concern among investors," Bettinger said. "When they think about inflation, it has moved their position from the first quarter of being a little bit on the bullish side to where now they're a little bit on the bearish side." He added that Schwab recommends most investors build up their portfolios with low-cost index funds or low-cost actively managed funds.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Charles Schwab, Walt Bettinger, Bettinger, Schwab Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Morgan Stanley tells investors to avoid hedge funds' overcrowded trades
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Owning overcrowded trades that are most popular among hedge funds could be risky for individual investors in the event of a herd-like stampede by systematic traders, according to Morgan Stanley, which looked at stocks to avoid. Despite their popularity and performance, none of the megacap tech stocks made the list of overcrowded stocks. That's because their enormous share count makes hedge funds' ownership less significant. Morgan Stanley found that hedge funds were most overweight in consumer discretionary, industrial and health care stocks last quarter, while they were most bearish on technology and consumer staples companies. Janus Henderson , The New York Times , Planet Fitness and Wayfair were also on the list of crowded trades.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Russell, Howard Hughes, Janus Henderson, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Avis Budget Group, Howard Hughes Holdings, The New York Times Locations: The

Morgan Stanley accompanied the move by cutting its price target to $100 from $120. His $185 price target, up from $160, forecasts that shares of Take-Two could rally 23% from Wednesday's close. — Lisa Kailai Han 5:55 a.m.: Bernstein initiates Ford at an outperform rating Investors who don't own Ford are missing out, according to Bernstein. — Lisa Kailai Han 5:55 a.m.: JPMorgan upgrades Hasbro Don't expect Hasbro's momentum to slow in the near future, according to JPMorgan. It also raised its price target on shares to $74 from $61, implying upside of 22%.

Persons: Bernstein, Morgan Stanley downgrades NetEase, Morgan Stanley, Alex Poon, Poon, Lisa Kailai Han, Omar Dessouky, Dessouky, — Lisa Kailai Han, Sam Poser, Sean Dodge, Dodge, GoodRx, Ford, Daniel Roeska, Roeska didn't, Roeska, Christopher Horvers, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Ford, JPMorgan, Hasbro, NetEase, Bank of America, Rockstar Games, Rockstar, Supreme, Corp, Trading, EMEA, Timberland, RBC, RBC Capital Markets, pharma, Kroger Locations: China, Wednesday's, Americas

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