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☆ Sterling eases after cooler British inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

British Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Sterling eased on Wednesday after data showed British inflation cooled more than forecast in October, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will be cutting interest rates by the middle of next year. Sterling was last down 0.2% on the day at $1.2471 by 0724 GMT, compared with $1.2487 shortly before the data. The figures reinforced the view that the U.S. Federal Reserve has probably also finished raising interest rates. Money markets show traders believe there is a good chance the BoE could start cutting rates by May next year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, BoE, Richard Garland, Rishi Sunak, we’ve, Huw Pill, Amanda Cooper, Alun John, Robert Birsel Organizations: Pound, U.S, REUTERS, Bank of England, Office, National Statistics, Omnis Investments, government's Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: September's, Britain

☆ Inflation cooled off in October
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Inflation cooled off in October based on new year-over-year data out Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index increased 3.2% year over year in October, less than the year-over-year increase of 3.7% in September. AdvertisementInflation cooled but is still above the Fed's 2% target per the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, for October. The year-over-year increase in October was just less than the forecast of 3.3%, and the increase is less than the September's 3.7% year-over-year increase . AdvertisementThe food index didn't see as large an increase as the shelter index, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3%.

Persons: —, David Kelly, Kelly, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morgan Asset Management, PMI, Federal Reserve, Federal

☆ October's inflation report 'broke the hiking cycle's back,' and signals the Fed is done raising rates, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America changed its Fed outlook on Tuesday after a softer-than-expected CPI report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementOctober's softer-than-expected inflation reading prompted Bank of America on Tuesday to change its outlook on further interest rate increases, with strategists declaring that the Federal Reserve's rate hiking cycle is over. Inflation in October came in at 3.2% year-over-year, down from 3.7% in September and the lowest reading since June. In its note on Tuesday, the bank called the report "the straw that broke the hiking cycle's back."

Persons: —, Katie Stockton, seasonality, Stockton Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, Markets, Fed, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Locations: New York

☆ Euro zone recession fears harden
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The downturn in euro zone business activity accelerated last month as demand in the dominant services industry weakened further, a survey showed on Monday, suggesting there is a growing chance of a recession in the 20-country currency union. The economy contracted 0.1% in the third quarter, official data has shown, and Monday's final Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October indicated the bloc entered the final quarter of 2023 on the back foot. Services activity in Germany, Europe's largest economy, slipped back into contraction in October amid persistent weakness in demand while in France it shrank again. In another bright spot, investor morale in the euro zone rose more than expected at the start of November, with expectations for the future at their rosiest since early this year, Sentix's index showed on Monday. Policymakers there, who have failed to get inflation to target, will likely take some cheer from easing price pressures shown in the PMI survey, as both the input and output prices indexes fell from their September readings.

Persons: Adrian Prettejohn, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson, Toby Chopra Organizations: PMI, P Global, Capital Economics, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: September's, COVID, Germany, Europe's, France, Spain

Private employers added 113,000 workers in October, led by the education and health care sectors, payroll firm ADP said on Wednesday. “No single industry dominated hiring this month, and big post-pandemic pay increases seem to be behind us,” said ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson. Political Cartoons on the Economy View All 605 ImagesThe ADP report kicks off the week’s focus on employment data. “The 1.1% rise in the Employment Cost Index in Q3 was a touch stronger than expected but showed labor cost pressures continue to slowly ease on trend,” said Wells Fargo economists. “With the ECI still running north of 4%, labor cost growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.

Persons: ”, Nela Richardson, “, it's, Wells, Rucha Vankudre, ” Vankudre Organizations: Labor Department, “

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The inflation that has been wearing on European consumers fell sharply to 2.9% in October, its lowest in more than two years as fuel prices fell and rapid interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank took hold. Inflation fell from an annual 4.3% in September as fuel prices fell by 11.1% and painful food inflation slowed, to 7.5%. The lower inflation figure follows a rapid series of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank. The future path of inflation toward the ECB's target remain uncertain because core inflation, excluding volatile fuel and food prices, remains higher than the headline figure, at 4.2%. The current burst of inflation was set off as the global economy rebounded from the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to shortages of parts and raw materials.

Persons: Rory Fennessy, ”, Jack Allen, Reynolds Organizations: European Central Bank, European, Oxford Economics, European Central Bank . Higher, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, France, Europe, Russian, Ukraine, Moscow, U.S

In the United States, the manufacturing sector pulled out of a five-month contraction on a pickup in new orders, and services activity accelerated modestly amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. HEADACHE FOR THE ECBIn the euro zone, business activity drooped as demand fell in a broad-based downturn across the region, causing the bloc to enter the fourth quarter on the wrong foot and suggesting it may slip into recession. "The flash PMIs mark a poor start to October for the euro zone, especially after showing some early signs of recovery in September," said Rory Fennessy at Oxford Economics. Suggesting a recession is well underway in Germany, Europe's largest economy, business activity contracted there for a fourth straight month as the downturn in manufacturing was matched by a renewed decline in services, its PMI showed. In France, the euro zone's second-largest economy, business activity remained in contraction territory in October, PMI data showed, improving just slightly from September's near three-year low.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Chris Williamson, Christine Lagarde's, Rory Fennessy, Williamson, Ajay Banga, Dan Burns, Jonathan Cable, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle, REUTERS, P Global, Composite, Federal, Commerce Department, Reuters, P, P Global Market Intelligence, P Global PMI, September's, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, PMI, European Union, Bank of, Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Dearborn , Michigan, U.S, United States, joblessness, Germany, Europe's, France, September's, Britain, Gaza, Ukraine

☆ Euro zone PMI hits lowest in nearly 3 years, stirs recession worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HCOB's flash euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good guide to overall economic health, fell to 46.5 in October from September's 47.2, its lowest since November 2020. "In the euro zone, things are moving from bad to worse," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "We wouldn't be caught off guard to see a mild recession in the euro zone in the second half of this year with two back to back quarters of negative growth." While the 20-country euro zone will narrowly dodge a recession, according to a recent Reuters poll, the economy was expected to have only flatlined last quarter and will do the same again in the current one. The composite employment index fell to 49.4 from 50.8.

Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Cyrus de la Rubia, Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Carrefour, REUTERS, P Global, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Service, PMI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Montesson, Paris, France, September's, Hamburg

WEST READING, Pa. (AP) — A Pennsylvania chocolate factory was fined more than $44,000 by the federal workplace safety agency on Thursday for failing to evacuate before a natural gas explosion that killed seven people. Palmer Co. did not heed warnings from employees about a natural gas leak, according to the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration, which issued multiple citations to the company. Palmer Co. did not evacuate the facility after being told of a suspected gas leak,” OSHA Area Director Kevin T. Chambers, of the agency’s Harrisburg office, said in a written statement. Employees in both buildings told federal investigators they could smell gas before the explosion. Workers at the plant have accused Palmer of ignoring warnings of a natural gas leak, saying the plant, in a small town 60 miles (96 kilometers) northwest of Philadelphia, should have been evacuated.

Persons: Kevin T, Chambers, ” Palmer, Palmer Organizations: Palmer Co, . Occupational Safety, Health Administration, Palmer, Employees, Workers Locations: Pennsylvania, Palmer, Harrisburg, West Reading, Philadelphia

The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.4% in August, slightly below estimates, while the yearly rise was 3.5%. But it was the core index that strips out food and energy prices coming in at 3.9%, its lowest reading since September of 2021, that is likely of most interest to the Fed. While goods prices have slowed considerably, costs in the services sector have proven harder to bring down, driven largely by housing prices. Looked at just over the past three months, the rate of core inflation has slowed markedly and is not far from the Fed’s 2% annual target. “PCE and core pce figures indicate continued inflation easing,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, commented on X.

Persons: “, ”, Carol Schleif, ” Kathy Jones, Andrew Patterson, Downside, ” Patterson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, PCE, BMO Family Office, Schwab Center, Financial Research

☆ Euro zone economy likely contracted this quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The euro zone economy is likely contract this quarter and won't return to growth anytime soon, a survey showed, as the dampening effect of central banks' long campaign of interest rates rises becomes clearer. HCOB's flash euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, rose to 47.1 in September from August's 33-month low of 46.7. "The increase in the ECB key interest rate by 450 basis points in the meantime is slowing down the economy in all euro countries." OUT OF ORDERSeptember's fall in overall activity in the euro zone came despite firms barely increasing their charges. The services PMI rose to 48.4 from 47.9 but spent its second month below the breakeven mark this year.

Persons: Christoph Weil, France's, Andrew Bailey, Sarah Meyssonnier, Bert Colijn, Jonathan Cable, Toby Chopra Organizations: P Global, August's, Hamburg Commercial Bank, ECB, PMI, European Union, Bank of England, Carrefour, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ING, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, Commerzbank, Europe's, Britain, Montesson, Paris, France, Spain

☆ US stocks fall as 10-year Treasury yield surges to highest since 2007 after Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell on Thursday as the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2007. Jobless claims fell to 201,000 last week, signaling the labor market remains tight. The 10-year US Treasury rate jumped to a high of 4.49% on Thursday, representing its highest level since October 2007. "He underscored numerous times that while the Fed remains data dependent and can proceed carefully, but another rate hike remains on the table as the Fed is seemingly wedded towards restoring price stability," LPL Financial strategist Quincy Krosby told Insider. Meanwhile, jobless claims fell to 201,000 last week, the lowest reading since January and below economist estimates of 225,000, signaling the labor market remains tight.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US stocks end higher but Wall Street closes out losing week amid interest rate concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Major indexes ended Friday higher but were down on the week as rate fears persisted. Signs of a tight labor market renewed fears of further interest rate hikes this year. Apple fell 5% during the week on fears of a widening crackdown in China on the use of iPhones. Through the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.26%, the Dow fell 0.53%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.11%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 43.5% of investors are expecting an interest rate hike in November.

Persons: John Williams, Apple Organizations: Apple, Service, Dow, Nasdaq, New York Fed, Here's, Dow Jones Locations: China, Wall, Silicon

☆ Global business activity showed signs of slowdown in August -PMIs
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Germany's services sector contracted for the first time this year and France's shrank more than first estimated. Japan proved an outlier as service sector activity expanded there at its quickest pace in three months, underpinned by robust consumer spending as inbound tourism regained momentum. "August's services PMI pointed to a contraction in UK private sector activity. ASIAN PAINChina's Caixin/S&P Global services PMI dropped to 51.8 in August from 54.1 in July, the lowest reading since December when COVID-19 confined many consumers to their homes. The data broadly aligned with the official services PMI released last week, which showed the sector continued to trend downwards.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Adrian Prettejohn, Martin Beck, Duncan Wrigley, Jonathan Cable, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, RBC, P Global, Capital Economics, PMI, Bank of Japan, Pantheon, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, India, Japan, Asia, July's, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, COVID

☆ GLOBAL ECONOMY Global business activity showed signs of slowdown in August -PMIs
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ US labor market loses steam as job openings, resignations decline
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

That was reinforced by a survey from the Conference Board showing consumers' perceptions of the labor market cooled in August. Nevertheless, labor market conditions remain tight, with 1.51 job openings for every unemployed person in July, compared to 1.54 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.465 million job openings. State and local government education job openings declined by 62,000 and there were 27,000 fewer federal government vacancies. Reuters GraphicsDeclining job openings are likely to be mirrored by slower job growth in August.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Conrad DeQuadros, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jeffrey Roach, Christopher Rupkey, Scott Anderson, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Board, Brean, Reuters, Midwest, Reuters Graphics, LPL Financial, Treasury, Fed, Companies, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Northeast, West, Wyoming, Charlotte , North Carolina, Stocks, San Francisco

☆ 'Interest rates are killing our industry': Here's what businesses are saying about the Fed's impact on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are having a negative impact on the economy. "Interest rates are killing our industry," said an executive from the transportation equipment sector. AdvertisementAdvertisement"High interest rates are affecting industrial production like never before... interest rates have placed an inverted incentive to grow due to a major slowdown in capital equipment expenditures. This is the time to stop raising interest rates," one survey respondent in the computer and electronic product manufacturing industry said. Finally, a survey respondent from the transportation equipment manufacturing industry had this to say about what the Fed is doing with interest rates: "Interest rates are killing our industry."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson Organizations: Dallas Fed's, Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Locations: Dallas Fed's Texas, Dallas

☆ UK retail sales slide by most in over two years: CBI
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - British retail sales fell in August at the fastest rate since March 2021 and most stores are expecting another tough month ahead, an industry survey showed on Thursday. The Confederation of British Industry's monthly balance of retail sales, which compares volumes with a year ago, fell to -44 in August from -25 in July. Expectations for the month ahead improved to -21 from -32, but were still deeply negative. The quarterly business situation balance - a gauge of sentiment among retailers - fell to -14 from +6 in May, the lowest reading this year. The CBI data echoed industry data earlier this week that showed sales growth at British supermarkets slowed in August, reflecting lower inflation as well as a hit to demand from unsettled, unseasonably wet weather.

Persons: Martin Sartorius, NIQ, Andy Bruce, David Milliken Organizations: British, CBI, Thomson

☆ Economic data in Europe just went from bad to worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

An emloyee works on the assembling of a brake caliper for an electric vehicle in Dueren, western Germany. A reading above 50 marks an expansion in activity, while one below 50 marks a contraction. If pandemic months are excluded, the latest numbers point to the lowest reading since April 2013. In terms of the breakdown between services and manufacturing, the former dropped to a 30-month low at 48.3 and the manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 42.7 in July to 43.7 this month. "Considering the PMI figures in our GDP [growth] nowcast leads us to the conclusion that the euro zone will shrink by 0.2% in the third quarter," Rubia added.

Persons: Dow Jones, Cyrus de la, Rubia Organizations: Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI Locations: Dueren, Germany, Hamburg

☆ Germany’s economy hasn’t looked this weak since the start of the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

That’s the lowest reading since May 2020, when the country began gradually lifting stringent pandemic restrictions. “Any hope that the service sector might rescue the German economy has evaporated. The figures add to evidence that Germany’s economy is sputtering again after it emerged from a winter recession in the second quarter by the narrowest of margins. “The downward pressure on the economy of the eurozone in August stems mainly from the German service sector,” said De la Rubia. “Activity has started to shrink while prices have shot up again, even picking up pace,” De la Rubia said.

Persons: stoking, ”, Cyrus de la Rubia, —, De la, “, De la Rubia, ” Andrew Kenningham Organizations: London CNN —, Hamburg Commercial Bank, P Global, P, European Central Bank, ECB, Capital Economics Locations: London CNN — Germany, Hamburg, Germany, Europe, “

Mortgage rates and home prices have spiked over the past couple of years, making homebuying more expensive than ever. High mortgage rates coupled with high home prices have made buying a house significantly more expensive than it's been in previous years. 5 advantages of buying a house when mortgage rates are highThere's no perfect time to buy a house. But mortgage rates are expected to drop throughout the next couple of years. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest forecast, mortgage rates could drop below 5% by the end of 2024.

Persons: Freddie Mac, they're, Sarah Alvarez, You'll, Melissa Cohn, they've, Cohn, Alvarez, it's Organizations: Service, Privacy, Finance, Gallup, Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban, William, Mortgage Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US job openings at more than two-year low but still elevated
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

There were 1.6 job openings for every unemployed person in June, little changed from May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.610 million job openings. Reuters GraphicsThere were an additional 136,000 job openings in healthcare and social assistance, while vacancies increased by 62,000 in state and local government, excluding education. The job openings rate was unchanged at 5.8% in June. ISM manufacturing PMIIt has, however, not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing employment in the government's nonfarm payrolls count.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Employers, Treasury, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Economists, ISM, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, . U.S

☆ US manufacturing shows signs of stabilizing at lower levels in July, ISM says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It was the ninth straight month that the PMI stayed below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing, the longest such stretch since the 2007-2009 Great Recession. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index increased to 47.3 in July. According to the ISM, the delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing firms has been faster for 10 straight months. It has, however, not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing employment in the government's nonfarm payrolls count. Manufacturing employment likely rose by 5,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

Persons: Charles Mostoller, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: BMW, REUTERS, Reuters Connect WASHINGTON, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Reuters, ISM, Federal Reserve, Manufacturing, Fed, U.S . Labor Department, Thomson Locations: Greer , South Carolina, U.S

☆ US consumer confidence races to two-year high; house prices rising
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Consumer confidence index increases to 117.0 in JulyLabor market differential rises to 37.2 from 32.5 in JuneHouse prices continue upward trend in MayWASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence increased to a two-year high in July amid a persistently tight labor market and receding inflation, bolstering the economy's prospects in the near term. That supports economists' views that consumer spending was flattening out after rising at its fastest pace in two years in the first quarter. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index increased to 117 this month, the highest reading since July 2021, from 110.1 in June. TIGHT LABOR MARKETThe survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, increased to 37.2 this month from 32.8 in June, a sign labor market conditions remain tight despite job growth slowing. And while more households planned to buy houses, they could run into affordability challenges as tight supply pushes up prices.

Persons: Robert Frick, Dana Peterson, Lisa Sturtevant, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Conference, Federal Reserve, Consumers, Navy Federal Credit Union, The, Reuters, University of, Conference Board's, Fed, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bright MLS, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Vienna , Virginia, U.S

The BoE said in May it expected June inflation would fall to 7.9%, moving further away from October's 41-year high of 11.1% but still way above its 2% target. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the core measure of price growth to hold at 7.1%. Despite June's drop, Britain's inflation rate remains the highest among the world's top seven rich economies. In Western Europe, only Iceland had a higher rate of inflation in June. Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, an accountancy body, said July's inflation rate was likely to slow to below 7%.

Persons: Sterling, BoE, James Smith ,, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, William Schomberg, William James, Sarah Young, Catherine Evans Organizations: Reuters, Bank of, Bank of England, U.S ., Reuters Graphics, National Statistics, Labour Party, Sunak's Conservative Party of, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, May's, Western Europe, Iceland, Britain

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