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☆ Take Five: And let there be calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - At the incredible end to the first quarter for financial markets, rattled by bank turmoil, some stability will be much hoped for in coming days. SNB chief Thomas Jordan reckons the next two weeks will be vital to securing UBS's Credit Suisse takeover. Market cap of US regional banks included in the S&P 500 regional bank index3/ DID YOU SAY AT1? Potential legal action is also possible after Swiss authorities ruled that holders of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds would get nothing in the deal. And U.S. and European banks turmoil show how quickly a crisis can surface, giving Ueda even more reason for caution.

☆ Central banks stick to rate hikes with eye on market turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Overall, 10 developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,290 basis points (bp) in this cycle to date. Reuters Graphics1) UNITED STATESThe Fed raised rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, continuing its most aggressive series of hikes since the 1980s. After setting its policy rate to 4.75%-5.00%, the Fed hinted it may soon pause rate rises. Reuters Graphics3) CANADAThe Bank of Canada on March 8 became the first major central bank to halt monetary tightening during this cycle. Reuters Graphics5) AUSTRALIAAustralia's central bank raised its key rate by a quarter point to 3.6% in March, the highest since May 2012, but hinted rate hikes may be over for now.

☆ Market stress indicators flash warnings as banking worries continue
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

March 20 (Reuters) - Fears of a global banking crisis are continuing to swirl, with investors keeping a close eye on a dashboard of indicators that show how stress is rippling through markets and the banking system. Many of these are continuing to flash warnings, though they have not surpassed levels seen during the COVID-19-fueled market turbulence of 2020. But the spread, measuring the gap between the euro zone three-month forward rate agreement and the overnight index swap rate, is still relatively elevated at around -1 basis points in a sign of lingering concern about financial market stress. Cost of insuring European junk bondsThe cost of insuring exposure to European junk bonds rose to the highest since mid-November on Monday at over 516 basis points. This has risen over 130 basis points since March 7 as riskier assets have borne the brunt of bank turmoil on both sides of the Atlantic.

☆ Take Five: Everything Everywhere All at Once
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Lender Credit Suisse will likely dominate a Swiss National Bank meeting and the Bank of England might place its inflation fight on hold. Some predict Credit Suisse could merge with peer UBS to rebuild Switzerland's reputation as a finance safe haven. Credit Suisse will also take centre stage when the SNB meets on Thursday. The Bank of England could be on the verge of wrapping up a 17-month campaign of raising rates to combat inflation. Labour market pressures - including wage inflation - are starting to soften.

☆ Credit Suisse managed funds' net outflows top $450 mln -Morningstar
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Net outflows seen March 14,15Data for March 16 yet to compiled -MorningstarLONDON, March 17 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse <CSGN.S> saw more than $450 million in net outflows from its U.S. and European managed funds from March 13 to 15, Morningstar Direct said on Friday, as retail and institutional counterparties pulled money out of funds managed by the embattled Swiss lender. The more than 300 European funds managed by the bank had an estimated net inflow of just over $14 million on March 13. By March 14 that had flipped to net outflows of $205 million, data provider Morningstar said. On March 15 there were net outflows of just over $211 million, it said. More than 20 U.S. funds tracked showed a $22,000 net outflow on March 13 which widened to $20 million the next day and to $29 million on March 15, Morningstar said.

☆ ECB goes big on rates but bank turmoil clouds central banks' outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Overall, 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,165 basis points (bps) in this cycle to date. Reuters Graphics3) CANADAThe Bank of Canada on March 8 became the first major central bank to halt monetary tightening during this cycle. Reuters Graphics6) NORWAYNorway's central bank meets next week and is expected to raise rates by 25 bps to contain above-target inflation. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the most dovish major global central bank, maintained ultra-low interest rates at its March meeting, the final one for retiring BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The BOJ resisted changing its controversial yield curve control policy, which it uses to cap interest rates on longer-term debt.

"Since mid-October, 10-year gilt rates have fallen, debt servicing costs are down, mortgage rates are lower and inflation has peaked. The International Monetary Fund says our approach means the UK economy is on the right track." [1/6] Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt holds the budget box on Downing Street in London, Britain March 15, 2023. The OBR forecast economic output would grow by 1.8% in 2024 and by 2.5% in 2025, Hunt said, compared with its previous forecasts for growth of 1.3% and 2.6% respectively. Many economists have said Hunt probably wants to hold back some fiscal firepower for closer to the next national election.

[1/6] Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt holds the budget box on Downing Street in London, Britain March 15, 2023. The International Monetary Fund says our approach means the UK economy is on the right track." After the shocks of Brexit, a heavy COVID-19 hit and double-digit inflation, Britain's economy is the only one among Group of Seven nations yet to recover its pre-pandemic size, having already suffered a decade of near-stagnant income growth. "Despite continuing global instability, the OBR report today that inflation in the UK will fall from 10.7% in the final quarter of last year to 2.9% by the end of 2023," Hunt said. Many economists have said Hunt probably wants to hold back some fiscal firepower for closer to the next national election.

☆ Hunt, hemmed in by debt, set to focus on growth in UK budget
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Instead, hemmed in by his promise to lower the burden of Britain's 2.5 trillion pounds ($3.0 trillion) of debt, Hunt will seek to tackle some of the causes of Britain's long-term economic funk. "In the autumn we took difficult decisions to deliver stability and sound money," Hunt is due to say, according to excerpts of his budget speech. "Today, we deliver the next part of our plan: a budget for growth," he adds. Labour's would-be finance minister, Rachel Reeves, sought to keep the heat on Hunt by calling for urgent action now. In an attempt to soften that tax hit, Hunt has hinted at new incentives for business investment.

☆ Take Five: A macro-packed punch for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/ THE PRICE IS RIGHTU.S. inflation data have been pivot points for markets and Tuesday's report will likely be consequential as investors gauge whether the Federal Reserve will return to the jumbo-sized rate hikes that shook markets last year. The European Central Bank has raised rates by 3 percentage points since July to 2.5% and looks set for another half-point increase on Thursday. Austria's central bank chief Robert Holzmann wants half-point rises at each of the next four meetings. Riskier, more fragile emerging markets, especially those with twin deficits, could feel the heaviest punch if the Fed goes all the way to 6%. Emerging markets countries hiking (+) or cutting (-) their policy ratesCompiled by Amanda Cooper; Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Kripa Jayaram and Vincent Flasseur; Edited by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ SVB collapse a sign of pain coming from end of easy-cash era
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - The easy-cash era is over and its impact is only just starting to felt by world markets yet to see the end of the sharpest interest rate hiking cycle in decades. European banks slid on Friday after JPMorgan (JPM.N) and BofA (BAC.N) shares fell over 5% on Thursday. BofA noted European banks' bond holdings have not grown since 2015. And with defaults rising, the focus is on the less visible private debt markets, which have ballooned to $1.4 trillion from $250 billion in 2010. Reuters Graphics5/FOR SALEReal estate markets started cracking last year and house prices will fall further this year.

☆ Take Five: A manic March
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Another dose of hot job growth after January's payrolls increase of 517,000 trounced estimates could stoke fears of more hawkish Fed action. Powell has said the January jobs report showed why the battle against inflation will "take quite a bit of time". Powell's comments and the jobs data could help settle what the Fed does later this month. The RBA hinted at further tightening at its meeting last month, but data since then has pointed the other way. After a red-hot January rally, bonds and equities retreated in February as strong data sparked concerns about more rate hikes.

LONDON, March 2 (Reuters) - Major central banks resumed their quest to ramp up interest rates in February after a tepid start to the year with price pressures proving more sticky than markets and many policy makers had hoped for. February saw six interest rate hikes across six meetings by central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies. January had seen just one interest rate hike of 25 bps by Canada across three meetings by G10 central banks. "This (inflation) shock came for everyone together, but it might disappear at different rates," said Gabriel Sterne at Oxford Economics. "The disinflation trend is looking surprising good in Asia now for example where services inflation has already turned a corner."

☆ The UK's lagging economy shows some signs of recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

JP Morgan last week raised its projection for gross domestic output growth in 2023 to 0.4% from a previous estimate of 0.1%. Britain is the only Group of Seven (G7) economy still smaller than before the coronavirus pandemic. Below is a summary of recent gauges of the economy and how investors have increased their bets on future BoE rate hikes. Reuters GraphicsUK AS G7 LAGGARDDespite the improvement signs, Britain lags its peers in terms of its recovery from the pandemic. Data to the end of 2022 shows Britain is the only G7 economy yet to recover its level of the end of 2019.

☆ Take Five: Strap in for no landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/ FED VS STOCKSReports on U.S. durable goods orders, home prices as well as manufacturing and consumer confidence threaten to cement expectations of more Fed rate hikes and to deal a knockout punch to the early-year stocks rally. Evidence of a stronger-than-expected economy has forced investors to recalibrate projections for Fed hawkishness, lifting bond yields and weighing on stock gains. Tuesday's consumer confidence data may be of particular interest, offering a glimpse into households' views on economic prospects and inflation expectations. The idea of "no landing," which upends a host of popular trades based on a the scenario of the global economy entering recession is gaining traction thanks to surprisingly upbeat data. A soft landing could still happen.

☆ One year of war in Europe: How the dollar, energy and food prices swirled
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted economies and markets around the world, from energy and food prices to European banks, emerging market stocks and the Russian currency. Below are five charts that show how Europe's biggest conflict since World War Two has shaped global financial markets in the last 12 months. But when Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in late February, European natural gas prices rocketed by almost 400% in two weeks. Energy prices soared, bringing the threat of blackouts, recession and a worrying switch back to dirtier sources of fuel. Food price pressures are easing, but that does little to soften the blow for many developing nations, where food and energy prices make up a larger share of spending.

☆ Take Five: The truth about inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

That puts Tuesday's U.S. inflation data on the must-watch list. 1/ INFLATION BETSurprisingly strong January U.S. jobs data forced markets to rethink the view that interest rates will peak soon. Now, Tuesday's latest inflation figure is the next big test for where the Federal Reserve takes rates in coming months. Stock markets are confident that the Fed can bring down inflation without triggering a sharp growth slowdown. January's inflation report on Wednesday could show double-digit price rises, meaning no respite yet on the interest-rate front.

☆ Recession alarm bells are ringing, but (much) less loudly than before
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Feb 10 (Reuters) - The rapid reopening of China's economy, plunging European gas prices and cooling U.S. inflation suggest a global recession may not be as deep and protracted as feared just weeks ago. The International Monetary Fund raised its 2023 global growth outlook and a painful euro area recession that was once seen as all-but-certain is less of a concern. Citi sees a 30% chance of a global recession this year, down from 50% in the second half of last year. But rallying stocks do not mean the world will escape a recession, rather that China's post-COVID economic reopening should limit the downturn. And economists polled by Reuters forecast global growth would barely clear 2% this year, a level associated with significant downturns historically, and flagged the risk that it could be even slower.

January saw just three meetings by central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies with Canada delivering a 25 basis point hike while Norway and Japan stayed put. Policy rate hikes and cuts by central banks overseeing the 10 most traded currencies. Policy rate hikes and cuts by central banks overseeing the 10 most traded currencies. The January moves compare with five central banks hiking by 260 bps in December. "As we move through 2023, non-U.S. dollar central banks including most in emerging markets should become happier," he added.

☆ Take Five: The Bottom Line
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Australia and India's central banks are navigating the shifting sands of data and markets are digesting what the world's top central banks have to offer. The question is what impact this will have on bonds and stocks markets after a stellar January? Reuters Graphics4/ RUN RALLY, RUNIt was a stellar start to 2023 for markets - stocks and government bonds enjoyed one of the best Januaries on record, fuelled by optimism that the worst is over. That's not good for a central bank, nor is the idea that their communication is ineffective. Policy rate hikes and cuts by central banks overseeing the 10 most traded currencies.

☆ Central banks hike rates again, but a pause is coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Joshua RobertsLONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Major central banks are steadily moving closer to a pause in their aggressive interest rate hiking campaigns. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England raised rates on Thursday, but markets suspect a peak is nearing. Overall, 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 2,965 basis points in this cycle to date, with Japan the holdout dove. Canada's central bank has raised its policy rate at a record pace of 425 basis points in 10 months. The central bank raised its forecast for its peak interest rate to 5.5%, up from a previous forecast of 4.1%.

☆ End of easy-cash era is going to hurt
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The end of the easy-cash era is over and its impact yet to be felt on world markets, hopeful that the pain of aggressive rate hikes and high inflation has passed. Reuters Graphics3/ GOING PRIVATEPrivate debt markets have ballooned since the financial crisis to $1.4 trillion from $250 billion in 2010. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/CRYPTO WINTERRising borrowing costs roiled crypto markets in 2022. Reuters Graphics5/FOR SALEReal estate markets, first responders to rate hikes, started cracking last year and 2023 will be tough with U.S. house prices expected to drop 12%. How the sector services its debt is in focus and officials warn European banks risk significant profit hits from sliding house prices.

[1/2] Men walk past an electric board displaying Nikkei and other countries' indexes outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan January 16, 2023. After $14 trillion was wiped off world shares in 2022, $4 trillion has been added back this month. "Markets are in this Goldilocks-scenario of OK growth, slowing inflation and softer monetary policy," said Richard Dias, founder of London-based investment consultancy Acorn Macro. Major central banks have added almost 3,000 basis points to global borrowing costs in this tightening cycle to date. "We've had a monumental rally in government bonds based on expectations we've reached the peak in interest rates," he said.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking in Davos recently, stressed the need for monetary policy to "stay the course." "There were questions recently about why markets don't understand what the ECB will do next," said ING's Brzeski. With updated ECB projections not out until March, Lagarde is likely to be pressed on how the ECB views core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. The ECB targets headline inflation at 2%, but officials are focused on a core measure. Reuters Graphics5/ Is the ECB more upbeat on the growth outlook?

☆ Take Five: Goldilocks and the three bears
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Will the Federal Reserve tone down its hawkish rhetoric in the face of cooling inflation or stick to its guns? Investors widely expect a 25-basis point rate increase at the Feb. 1 meeting and for rates to stop short of hitting 5%. Fed officials, however, have indicated they expect the key policy rate to top out at 5.00-5.25% this year. Dollar bears, meanwhile, will watch for dovish leanings that could further accelerate a decline in the greenback. Amundi reckons ECB rates could reach 4%.

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