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Further stock market advance depends on rally broadening out
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The advance in those indexes, particularly the S & P 500, has been very uneven, even with last week's broad rally. Lowry Research analysts noted that investors simply in the S & P 500, or in tech stocks, were clearly in an up market. Lowry noted that 48.2% of all operating-company only stocks are 20% or more below their 52-week highs, which Lowry and others define as bear market territory. That's far worse than the 32% that were in bear market territory on February 2, when the S & P 500 was at a new high for the year. "Bull markets are hard-pressed to last when the number of stocks entering 'bear market territory' grows," Lowry noted.
Persons: You'd, Chadha, SPX, Venu Krishna, Lowry, Russell, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Street Journal, Lowry Research, LPL
Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz says a recession is hurtling toward the US economy. He pointed to stocks falling in lockstep with rising unemployment claims in 2007, 2000, 1990, 1981, 1973, and 1969. Today, investors are again doing a poor job of forecasting rising unemployment claims in the months ahead, Kantrowitz believes. Underpinning Wilson's call is an earnings recession this year that investors aren't pricing in. "We first started talking about the coming earnings recession a year ago and received very strong pushback, just like today.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Michael Kantrowitz doesn't, Piper Sandler, it's, Louis, Greg Boutle, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Venu Krishna, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, Albert Edwards Organizations: Energy, Survey, Federal Reserve Bank of St, BNP, Barclays, Conference, Board, National Federal, Independent, of Labor Statistics, Generale's Locations: lockstep
Where do the sharpest minds on Wall Street believe the market is headed? The CNBC PRO exclusive Market Strategist Survey is a roundup of year-end targets for the S & P 500 from top Wall Street strategists, updated quarterly, or whenever there is a material change to the forecasts. Here are the current 2023 targets from top strategists. Maximum target: 4,575 — Sam Stovall, CFRA Minimum target: 3,725— Venu Krishna, Barclays Average target: 4,147 Median Target: 4,100
Barclays outlined the top questions investors are asking as the S&P 500 looks stuck in a tight trading range. The S&P 500 is likely to remain rangebound in the short-term, Krishna said. Tail risks aside, markets may be lulled into thinking hurdles - just as the current earnings recession – can be cleared in record time. That scenario tilts the balance of risk toward its base case of a shallow recession base case and an S&P 500 price target of 3,725. The S&P 500 during Tuesday's session was at 4,125.
Although small-cap stocks have taken a hit in recent weeks, Barclays Capital has several picks in the sector that it expects to have significant upside. The following names show strong upside potential, with a median upside to price target of 28%. Powell has a price target of $24 on the REIT, which represents 52% upside from where shares closed on Tuesday. Barclays sees an upside of 37% for the stock since Tuesday's close. Retailer Dick's Sporting Goods , water management products manufacturer Advanced Drainage Systems and US Foods are companies Barclays expects to benefit from expanding margins through strong sales growth and declining costs.
More than one third (35%) of the S & P 500 reports earnings next week — including megacaps Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon — versus less than 12% in the week just ended and only 2% last week. So far this quarter, S & P 500 earnings are running 4.7% below the same period a year ago, Refinitiv data shows. Back then, the S & P 500 fell 19.4% from its April high to a low on October 3. Meanwhile, next week is the last full trading week before Wall Street's old adage to "sell in May and go away" takes hold. ET: FHFA Home Price index (February); S & P Case-Shiller home price indexes (February) 10:00 a.m.
That is hardly an "earnings recession." More accurately: analysts are predicting a mild "earnings recession" for the first half of the year, but then a rebound in the second half. The strategists have good reason to be nervous Strategists are nervous because the market is priced for a perfect landing. It is not even priced for a "mild" recession. The difference between a "mild" recession and a "deep" recession on stocks is enormous: a "typical" recession will produce an earnings decline of 10%-20%, and a multiple compression of 20%-25%.
The S&P 500 is up about 18% from its October lows, getting close to reach bull-market status. But Barclays says "the bull case for equities, like valuations, is still a stretch." Earnings estimates are still high for an economy that's unlikely to skirt a recession, the bank says. But Barclays sees valuations as "too optimistic" relative to its base case for a shallow recession and $200 in per-share earnings collectively for S&P 500 companies in 2023. "Ultimately, we think the bull case for equities, like valuations, is still a stretch," he said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMargins will be under pressure as inflation comes down, says Barclay's Venu KrishnaG Squared’s Victoria Greene and Barclay Investment’s Venu Krishna, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss market expectations and outlook.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with G Squared’s Victoria Greene and Barclay Investment’s Venu KrishnaG Squared’s Victoria Greene and Barclay Investment’s Venu Krishna, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss market expectations and outlook.
As the likelihood of a hard landing this year rises, Barclays says investors should seek quality stocks that are not overly expensive. Large-cap tech stocks have been outperforming the market in 2023, with the S & P 500's tech sector up more than 16%. "Rather than chasing yet another crowded trade that is vulnerable to the next unwind, we recommend seeking safe haven among quality stocks at less demanding valuations," Krishna wrote in a report on Monday. With the growing market uncertainty in mind, Barclays recommended a basket of quality stocks trading at lower valuations as a way to position for the growing risk of an economic downturn this year. Several tech stocks made the list, including Microsoft and Accenture .
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is proven to be a little stickier than people expected, says Barclays' Venu KrishnaVenu Krishna, head of US equity strategy with Barclays Investment Bank, and Aditya Bhave, Bank of America senior U.S. and global economist, join 'TechCheck' to discuss their thoughts on the market and the decline in European bank stocks.
The S&P 500 could fall to as low as 3,000, they said. In a note this week, Wilson said that the S&P 500 remains overvalued relative to history by price-to-earnings and price-to-sales metrics. S&P 500 P/E multiples are 9% above their median while P/Sales multiples are 23% above median," Wilson said. "History implies that for the current level of real rates the S&P 500 multiple is ~2.5x overvalued," the chief market strategist said. Wilson's end-of-year target for the S&P 500 is 3,900, while Krishna and Kolanovic have targets of 3,725 and 4,200, respectively.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRaymond James' Tavis McCourt and Barclays' Venu Krishna break down the marketTavis McCourt, Raymond James institutional equity strategist, and Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy with Barclays Investment Bank, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss their thoughts on inflation and the market.
Barclays has an 2023 S&P 500 target of 3,724, more than 6% lower than current levels. The base case at Barclays is for the S&P 500 to land at 3,724 in a shallow-recession scenario in 2023. The S&P 500 last week dropped by 2.6%, the worst weekly selloff of 2023 and the third consecutive weekly decline. Stocks started 2023 with a rally after last year's plunge but have recently suffered alongside a jump in bond yields. The S&P 500 pushed higher during Monday's session after stocks last week notched their worst weekly performance of the year.
After a stellar start to 2023, many big bank analysts are skeptical that this rally can continue and urge investors to prepare for another leg lower. "We believe investors should fade the YTD rally as recession risks are merely postponed rather than diminished," wrote JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic in a January note to clients. Meanwhile, Barclays' Venu Krishna wrote in a Monday note that equities have "jumped the gun." Several factors, including falling recession risks and a correction in the CBOE Volatility Index and other spreads, also support a long-due fade in the market rally, wrote Credit Suisse's Patrick Palfrey in a January note. "We continue to recommend that equity investors position defensively and be prepared for additional volatility ahead," she said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYou can't ignore the risk and move on, says Barclays' Venu KrishnaVenu Krishna, head of US equity strategy with Barclays Investment Bank, joins 'TechCheck' to discuss the market, the Fed rate hike decision, and why he sees earnings declining in the future.
He also thinks earnings expectations are too high and will come down. This hawkish policy will eventually lead to a recession this year, Bierman said, a view that is shared by many on Wall Street. "The market has not priced in earnings misses, the market has priced in earnings beats," he said. Bierman's views in contextBierman's recession call has become a somewhat consensus view on Wall Street. RIA AdvisorsThis translates to lackluster expectations for stocks among Wall Street strategists.
The benchmark index also entered a bear market, dropping more than 20% from its record high set in early January 2022. Ned Davis Research's Ed Clissold noted that stocks were "quiet quitting" heading into 2022, as market breadth deteriorated. Quiet quitting is a term that came about during the Covid pandemic and refers to employees choosing not to go above and beyond their job requirements. .SPX mountain 2021-01-13 From 'quiet quitting' to 'quiet rebuilding'? CNBC's Market Strategist Survey shows the median S & P 500 strategist target sits at 4,100, implying upside of just 6.8% for 2023.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full discussion with RBC's Lori Calvasina and Barclays' Venu KrishnaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, and Venu Krishna, Barclays Investment Bank, join CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss where they see the markets headed this year.
That works out to a 31.2% return on total average short interest of $973.6 billion throughout the year, according to S3 Partners. Stanphyl Capital portfolio manager Mark Spiegel, who has been short Tesla "constantly, in varying size" since 2014, said a bet against Tesla was his fund's most profitable individual short position this year. While higher interest rates have punished growth stocks, some investors believe Tesla CEO Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter is diverting his time running the electric car company. Long-short hedge funds, which bet on stock prices rising or falling, posted a 9.7% loss through November, according to data provider HFR. Charles Lemonides, portfolio manager at $226 billion hedge fund ValueWorks LLC, believes tight monetary policy will weigh on risk appetite next year.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere is hope for more bear market rallies, but they're not sustainable, says Barclays' Venu KrishnaVenu Krishna, head of US equity strategy with Barclays Investment Bank, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss pulling out of the market, anticipating an earnings bottom and factoring in a growth slowdown.
Data analyzed by Bespoke Investment Group shows that stocks' current bear market may need to take another leg lower before rebounding. That spells bad news for investors hoping the current bear market has hit a bottom, as the general rule of thumb is the final six months of a bear market before a bounce should be particularly painful. "When it comes to investing during a bear market, you'll often hear the advice that investors should wait on the sidelines until the market shows signs of meaningful stabilization," the firm said. The S & P 500 closed within 5% of the true low a median of 10 times during previous bear markets. In just the six months before Oct. 12, the S & P 500 closed within 5% on 20 trading days.
Barclays and UBS see more pain ahead for stocks. Here's why
  + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Despite 2022's steep losses and extreme volatility in stocks, UBS and Barclays are still not calling the bottom. The S & P 500 just came off its fourth negative week in five with a 1.6% loss last week. The S & P 500 is down about 22% on the year, and the equity benchmark hit a new 2022 low last week amid wild price swings. The S & P 500 is now trading around 15.5 times forward earnings, closer to Barclays' fair value estimate of 14 times, the firm said. Barclays said its mostly likely scenario for the S & P 500 is to end 2022 at 3,200, which is about 12% below where the benchmark traded on Monday.
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