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☆ After a robust third quarter, US economic growth will likely slow. That's good for the prospect of rate cuts next year.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-22 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The central bank also doesn’t have any incentive to restrict the economy through elevated interest rates if inflation is already under control. The US central bank has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022 to their highest level in 22 years. The US Commerce Department reports new home sales in September. The US Commerce Department reports third-quarter gross domestic product along with September figures on new durable-goods orders. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended October 21.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Gregory Daco, ” Diane Swonk, Donald Trump, Colin Kaepernick’s, Bud Light’s, Elliott Gotkine, ”, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, “, Satya Nadella, ” Sundar Pichai, , Sherwin, Williams, Clark, General, Hess, Rowe Price Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, The Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury, KPMG, BlackRock, America, Nike, Yale School of Management, Microsoft, ” Disney, Sonnenfeld, Tottenham Hotspur, Whirlpool, Verizon, General Electric, Barclays, 3M, General Motors, Spotify, Quest Diagnostics, Mobile, Boeing, General Dynamics, Old Dominion, Hilton, Meta, IBM, US Commerce Department, Mastercard, Merck, Comcast, UPS, Myers Squibb, Northrop Grumman, Valero, The Hershey Company, Amazon, Intel, European Central Bank, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate, Palmolive, Phillips, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, EY, Israel, United States, United Kingdom, London, Gaza, Kimberly, Haliburton, Old, Bristol, AbbVie

☆ Israel-Hamas war risks further deglobalization and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The global economy is facing tremendous uncertainty from the war between Hamas and Israel in the Middle East, on top of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. They say Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas could be yet another catalyst for deglobalization, though the extent of that is still up in the air. If deglobalization does get exacerbated, what would that mean for inflation and monetary policy, globally? With deglobalization, you get a global economic environment that’s less competitive, and when there’s less competition, that is ultimately inflationary, causing prices to rise. Over the Covid era, China shut down production, disrupting the global supply chain, so deglobalization would bring some production back within US borders.

Persons: Wells, Bell, Brendan McKenna, that’s, Trump, there’s, Hanna Ziady, we’ve, ”, Avi Hasson, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Tesla, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Trump, Hamas, Nation Central, Philadelphia Fed, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Procter & Gamble, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, American Airlines, US Labor Department, Federal, Fed Locations: Washington, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Wells Fargo, Gaza, deglobalization, United States, Mexico, US, Tel Aviv, New York

☆ The Fed is at odds with itself. That’s a feature, not a bug
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.

Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, ”, Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens

☆ Americans support strikes — until they affect their daily lives
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The public will continue to support them – that is until the strikes begin to affect Americans’ daily lives. CNN reached out to the Justice Department for comment but has not received a response. The US Labor Department releases August figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of worker filings for jobless benefits in the week ended September 30. The US Labor Department releases September data on the state of the job market, including payroll gains, wage growth and the unemployment rate.

Persons: –, ” Andrew Flowers, “, Eva Rothenberg, Suisse’s, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Michael Barr, John Williams, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Levi Strauss, Tom Barkin, Mary Daly Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN —, Gallup, Guild of America, Teamsters, Reno, United Auto Workers, UAW, Toyota, Honda, CNN, Nationwide, UBS, DOJ, US Department of Justice, Credit Suisse, “ UBS, CS, Bloomberg, Justice Department, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, McCormick, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Co, US Commerce Department, Carnival Corp Locations: Washington, United States, Hollywood, Las Vegas, Germany, Russia

☆ Defeating inflation without high unemployment is still unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

And the US economy’s surprising resilience, despite 11 rate hikes, has raised hopes of a soft landing becoming a reality. “I’ve always thought that the soft landing was a plausible outcome, that there was a path to a soft landing,” he said. But historical records show that a soft landing has only occurred once in the 1990s, or perhaps even a handful of times. The US Commerce Department releases its final estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product. The US Commerce Department releases August data on household income, spending, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, “ I’ve, ”, “, Powell’s, ” “ Jerome Powell, ” Quincy Krosby, Krosby, ” Krosby, Matt Egan, ” Neil Bradley, “ We’ve, Read, Christine Lagarde, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, John Williams Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Fed, LPL, CNN, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, European Central Bank, Costco, Global, Board, Survey, US Commerce Department, Micron, Nike, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Carnival Corp, University of Michigan, New York Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington

☆ Inflation is expected to slow because of these trends
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington, DC CNN —US inflation has slowed steadily from its four-decade peak last June, and it’s expected to cool further thanks to easing car prices and rents. Despite the expected inflation drop, she said investors anticipate the Fed will keep interest rates steady and not cut them anytime soon. “It may take a little bit longer than expected for inflation to come down to 2%, and inflation being in a 2-3% range next year is reasonable,” she said. Tuesday: Canada’s statistics agency releases August inflation data. The UK’s Office for National Statistics releases August inflation data.

Persons: we’re, ” José Torres, “, ”, Sarah House, Saira Malik, Michelle Toh, ” Read, General Mills, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Interactive Brokers, CNN, “, ”, United Auto Workers, CPI, San, San Francisco Fed, National Association of Home Builders, US Commerce Department, Japan’s Ministry of Finance, FedEx, General, National Statistics, Federal Reserve, Darden Restaurants, The Bank of England, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, The Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Global Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo, San Francisco, China, Michelle Toh ., Japan’s

☆ The problem with labor data in understanding inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The central bank will continue to pay close attention to the state of the labor market, specifically on wages, as it focuses on defeating inflation, but there’s only so much that labor data can reveal about price increases. Mainly, it’s that wage figures are great at gauging inflation’s progress, but they’re lousy at forecasting its future. Financial markets have shifted back to a “bad news is good news” way of perceiving economic data and will continue to react to labor data, but ultimately, it’s the actual inflation data that matter most to the Fed. The issue of labor figures in forecasting inflation lies with productivity data. The Federal Reserve releases August data on industrial production.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, ”, Quincy Krosby, ” Agron Nicaj, it’s, Anna Cooban, ” James Athey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, Financial, LPL Financial, CNN, Oracle, National Federation of Independent Business, National Statistics, US Labor Department, Adobe, European Central Bank, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Lennar Homes, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Saudi Arabia

☆ The Fed likely won’t raise rates this month — but November is another matter
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —Last week’s economic data increasingly gave investors hope that the Federal Reserve could hold interest rates steady this month, following a hike in July that brought rates to their highest level in 22 years. It’s hard to say definitively if or when the central bank will hike interest rates again this year. The Fed could hold rates steady for the rest of the year if both the job market and the broader economy continue to slow, helping bring down inflation. Higher for longer means keeping interest rates elevated for a prolonged period. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases August inflation data.

Persons: hasn’t, ” Leslie Thompson, Thompson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Susan Collins, Powell’s Jackson, there’s, Raphael Bostic, Olesya Dmitracova, ” Patrick Hummel, David Lesne, Juan Perez, Carrascosa, Barnes & Noble Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Financial, Spectrum Wealth Management, CNN, Fed, Kansas City, Boston, Yahoo, Finance, Atlanta Fed, Volkswagen, Renault, UBS, French, Swiss, Barnes &, The Reserve Bank of Australia, US Commerce Department, Eagle, Express, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Kroger, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Cape Town , South Africa, Europe

☆ US consumer spending is expected to cool further but not fall off a cliff
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-27 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Investors and economists are bullish that consumer spending, the US economy’s main engine, won’t deteriorate too much, which should help stocks avoid a massive sell-off this year. The US Labor Department releases July figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Commerce Department releases July data on household spending, income and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended Aug. 26. Friday: The US Labor Department releases August figures on the labor market, including monthly payroll gains, wage growth, and the unemployment rate.

Persons: “ We’re, we’ve, ” Matthew Palazzolo, we’re, We’re, ” Palazzolo, pare, It’s, Biden, Jerome Powell, Sinead Colton Grant, Anna Cooban Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, US, Bernstein Private Wealth Management, CNN, Nvidia, Research, Fed, Kansas City, San Francisco Fed, Mellon, International Monetary Fund, Global, US Labor Department, Board, US Commerce Department, National Association of Realtors, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, P Global, Institute for Supply Management Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, American, Germany, Europe, Berlin

☆ Ahead of two key inflation reports, what would a soft landing look like exactly?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But aside from simply skirting a recession, it’s not obvious what the economy would look like in a soft landing. And who even declares that the Fed has officially defied the odds and achieved a soft landing? The main aspect of a soft landing, according to economists, is the absence of a recession, which is determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.) In a soft landing, the job market has to remain intact. The other key feature of a soft landing is for the Fed to successfully control inflation, but that’s open to some interpretation.

Persons: we’ve, ”, Kayla Bruun, “, Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, Josh Markman, cooldown, Austan Goolsbee, ” Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Armour, Ralph Lauren Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Morning, Atlanta, ZipRecruiter, Labor, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, “, Tyson Foods, UPS, Fox, Restaurant Brands, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Disney, US Labor Department, National Statistics, University of Michigan Locations: Washington

☆ China's real youth unemployment rate could actually be close to 50% - more than double the official rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China's youth unemployment rate may be severely skewed, a Peking University professor wrote. While official statistics for March cited a 19.7% rate, Zhang Dandan estimated it's closer to 46.5%. According to Zhang Dandan, whose findings were recently published in the financial magazine Caixin, March's youth unemployment rate could have been as much as 46.5% when accounting for 16 million non-students not actively seeking work, Reuters reported. This is more than double that month's official 19.7% rate, as published by the National Bureau of Statistics. To be sure, the US Labor Department's unemployment rate doesn't include Americans who have stopped looking for work.

Persons: Zhang Dandan, COVID Organizations: Peking University, Service, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, US Labor Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Sanitation company pays $1.5 million penalty for hiring children for 'hazardous' factory work like cleaning beef bone saws, officials say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( Jordan Hart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US Labor Department filed a complaint against PSSI following a three-month investigation into unlawful child labor claims in November. PSSI was charged $1.5 million in penalties as a result of the investigation, officials said. The department accused the sanitation contractor of having employees as young as 13 working "hazardous" overnight shifts. The DOL filed a complaint seeking a temporary restraining order and injunction against the food safety sanitation service following its investigation. The company added that no children are currently employed, and many hadn't worked for the business in years.

☆ More than 100 children worked in dangerous conditions at slaughterhouse cleaning firm: US Labor Department
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Ramishah Maruf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Kieler, Wisconsin, based company employed the children to clean meat processing equipment including back saws, brisket saws and head splitters. The company said none of the underage workers are employed at the company today, and that “many” of them had worked there years ago. In November, a complaint was filed in the US District Court of Nebraska alleging that Packers Sanitation illegally employed at least 31 children to clean dangerous power equipment. A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order barring the company from committing further child labor law violations. In December, Packers agreed to take “significant steps” to comply with labor laws after entering into a consent order and judgment.

☆ US Labor Department accuses Amazon of failing to keep warehouse workers safe
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Catherine Thorbecke | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Amazon has been accused by federal safety regulators of failing to keep warehouse workers safe from workplace hazards at three US facilities, in the latest example of government officials scrutinizing the e-commerce giant’s labor practices. The Department of Labor said Wednesday that its Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has cited Amazon and issued hazard letters related to injury risks from workers lifting packages after inspecting three warehouse facilities in Deltona, Florida; Waukegan, Illinois; and New Windsor, New York. An Amazon spokesperson said the company “strongly” disagrees with OSHA’s claims and intends to appeal. “We’ve cooperated fully, and the government’s allegations don’t reflect the reality of safety at our sites,” Kelly Nantel, an Amazon spokesperson, told CNN in a statement Wednesday. But Amazon is also known for carefully tracking worker productivity and for working conditions that have been called “grueling.”“We have to keep up with the pace,” Jennifer Bates, an Amazon warehouse employee who helped organize a union push at an Alabama facility, said in testimony before the Senate Budget Committee in 2021.

☆ Food plant cleaning company accused in federal probe of hiring children for 'hazardous' work that left 13-year-old with chemical burns
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Jordan Hart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US Labor Department filed a complaint against PSSI following a three-month investigation into unlawful child labor claims. The department is accusing the sanitation contractor of having employees as young as 13 working 'hazardous' overnight shifts. PSSI emphasized its 'zero tolerance' for violating its policy of employing anyone under 18 years old. A news release Wednesday from the DOL said Packers Sanitation Services Inc. employed at least 31 children — ages 13 to 17 — in "hazardous occupations." But a PSSI spokesperson said in a statement to Insider Thursday that it has a "zero tolerance" policy around hiring employees under 18.

☆ Ammar Campa-Najjar faces off against John McCann in Chula Vista, California's mayoral election
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Hanna Kang | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Ammar Campa-Najjar is running against John McCann in Chula Vista, California's mayoral race. The San Diego State University graduate ran two unsuccessful congressional campaigns, one against Rep. Darrell Issa in California's 50th Congressional District. He is endorsed by the San Diego County Democratic Party, Chula Vista Firefighters, and several high-profile elected officials, including Gov. McCann is currently serving his fourth term as deputy mayor on the Chula Vista City Council. He is endorsed by the Chula Vista Police Officers Association, the Republican Party of San Diego County, and the San Diego County Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.

☆ Companies cautious on holiday hiring plans in face of growing recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN Business —Employers seem poised to pull back on the normal rush of seasonal hiring, which experts say is another warning bell for a possible recession. Those are the primary drivers of the seasonal hiring surge. It has not announced a seasonal hiring target yet for this year“We continue to hire for operational positions needed in certain locations,” said spokesperson Caroline Moses Little. Some companies are keeping seasonal hiring plans about the same. Overall, it’s a much more cautious environment in bringing on seasonal workers said ZipRecruiter’s Pollack.

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