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November's rate for new purchases could be higher than the current 4.3% interest on I bonds bought through Oct. 31, leaving some investors wondering about whether to buy more. The variable rate adjusts every six months based on inflation and the Treasury can also change the fixed rate or keep it the same. (The fixed rate stays the same for investors after purchase, and the variable rate adjusts every six months based on the investor's purchase date.) Based on inflation, the variable rate in November will likely increase to 3.94% from 3.38%. But they'd need to purchase new I bonds between Nov. 1 and April 30 to score the increased fixed rate.

Persons: Ken Tumin, David Enna, you'll, DepositAccounts.com Organizations: Getty, U.S . Department of, Treasury Locations: —

☆ Mui: Inflation is moving in the right direction, so it's worth it for the Fed to be patient
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMui: Inflation is moving in the right direction, so it's worth it for the Fed to be patientJanet Mui, head of market analysis at RBC Brewin Dolphin, discusses expectations for the Fed and interest rates, and why investors may want to take a chance on TIPS, or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.

Persons: Janet Mui Organizations: Fed, RBC, Securities

☆ Why an economic soft landing may prove elusive
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

His latest book, “You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism”, won’t make him any friends in monetary policymaking circles. The Fed responded by reducing interest rates to zero and employing various tools to lower bond yields. These economic imbalances prevented central banks from returning interest rates to normal levels. Unless, that is, liberalising economic reforms are enacted that boost productivity and allow interest rates to rise. Bernard Conolly’s book, “You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism” was published in hardback in September.

Persons: Bernard Connolly, Connolly, won’t, they’ve, Michael Woodford, ”, Alan Greenspan, staved, Lehman, Edward Chancellor’s “, Bernard Conolly’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, European Monetary Union, European Commission, Banks, U.S . Federal, stoke, Lehman Brothers, Fed, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Securities, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, British, Europe, American, “, ”, disequilibrium, intertemporal, Central

☆ There's a signal flashing in the bond market that says a recession is coming soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's a worrying signal in the bond market that suggests a recession could soon arrive. Investors have typically pointed to the spread between the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields as an indicator of a coming recession. The two-year yield surpassing that of the 10-year bond has been a signal that's preceded every economic slump since 1955. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security yields, which are adjusted for inflation, are currently hovering around 2.5%, Misra said. "The US Treasury yield curve is de-inverting very rapidly," Gundlach said in post on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Tuesday.

Persons: —, Priya Misra, That's, Misra, It's, Jeff Gundlach, Gundlach, Buckle Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Management, CNBC, Treasury Locations: Treasurys

Moves in bond yields, implied inflation breakeven rates, and inflation-adjusted 'real' yields suggest investors anticipate the Fed's 'higher for longer' interest rate policy will help lower inflation to around 2.5%. But this is not a re-pricing of the Fed's near-term trajectory, rather a repricing of the longer term economic and inflation outlook. This suggests the Fed is entering a phase of structurally higher rates than perhaps policymakers themselves, and certainly investors, had anticipated. Many analysts are skeptical that moves in bond yields can be broken down, quantified and compartmentalized with any great degree of accuracy. TIPS are a key market-based barometer of investors' inflation expectations, but they have their flaws.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goldman Sachs, Marvin Barth, Barth, Torsten Slok, Jamie McGeever, Christina Fincher Organizations: Chicago Fed, CNBC, Securities, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida

☆ Yields on inflation-protected bonds spiked after the Fed’s tough outlook. What’s next for investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The yield on the 5-year TIPS was 2.48% on Wednesday afternoon, while the rate on the 10-year TIPS was 2.29%. The par value of the bonds adjusts with inflation, based on the consumer price index for all urban consumers. Duration is a measure of a bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates, and as bond prices swooned in 2022, TIPS also suffered. "They're not always the perfect inflation hedge in the short term, and they are very sensitive to changes in market interest rates." Be aware that while there are no state or local taxes on interest, federal taxes apply.

Persons: Brett Wander, Morningstar, US5YTIPS, Bill Ahmuty, Amy Arnott, They're, Arnott Organizations: Federal Reserve, Schwab Asset Management, Fed, State Street Global Advisors, Morningstar Research Services Locations: TreasuryDirect

☆ 10-year yields hit 16-year peak as Fed seen higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady, as was widely expected, and said that its benchmark overnight interest rate may still be lifted one more time this year to a peak 5.50%-5.75% range. He added that "we want to see convincing evidence really, that we have reached the appropriate level" of interest rates to return inflation to the Fed's 2% target. Benchmark 10-year note yields hit 4.490%, the highest since November 2007. Interest rate sensitive two-year yields reached 5.202%, the highest since July 2006. The U.S. Treasury Department will sell $15 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) on Thursday.

Persons: Murad Sezer, Will Compernolle, Compernolle, Jerome Powell, Karen Brettell, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, UAW, U.S . Treasury Department, Securities, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York

☆ Here's why it's time to buy this inflation-protected investment, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Wall Street firm upgraded the 5-year securities, known as TIPS, to most preferred from neutral on Wednesday. The yield on 5-year TIPS hit 2.24% on Wednesday, the highest real yield the sector has seen in over 15 years, said Leslie Falconio, head of fixed income strategy in UBS Americas' chief investment office. TIPS yields account for inflation, but Treasury yields are nominal and don't take inflation into account. "While investors were confronted with historically high inflation, TIPS proved to be a disappointment as the interest rate component dramatically underperformed," she said. Those higher real yields also have been a contributor to rising nominal yields, she said.

Persons: Leslie Falconio, Falconio, Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve Locations: UBS Americas

U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Thursday as investors await signals on monetary policy from central bankers at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up around 2 basis points at 4.215%, after hitting a 16-year high on Monday. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed less than 1 basis point to 4.288%. Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin struck a hawkish tone on Tuesday, reiterating that the Fed needs to defend the 2% inflation target to preserve its credibility with the public. The U.S. Treasury on Thursday will auction $80 billion in 4-week bills, $70 billion in 8-week bills and $8 billion in 29-year and six-month Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.

Persons: Jackson, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, — CNBC's Elliot Smith Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Richmond Fed, of Commerce, U.S, Securities Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Danville Pittsylvania County

☆ ‘Dividend aristocrat’: Investors are getting more bullish on this sector, naming stocks to buy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

And hedge fund manager David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners told CNBC's " Street Signs Asia " that the "best asset class" is oil stocks. Typically, in a recession, oil prices could dive to $50 a barrel, he said. Stocks to buy Neuhauser said Livermore owns small-cap energy stocks Kolibri Global and Vista Energy — because of limited supply and strong returns on capital, as well as low valuations. Still, energy stocks are an option for investors seeking inflation protection, Dietze said. He said energy stocks are "a far superior alternative" to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.

Persons: BofA, David Neuhauser, CNBC's, Neuhauser, Livermore, David Dietze, Dietze, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, subsector, That's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Livermore Partners, Vista Energy, Wealth Management, Exxon, Mizuho, Securities, Dominion Energy Locations: Chevron, U.S, Wednesday's, Saudi

NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - A recent spike in U.S. bond yields has come alongside muted expectations for inflation, a sign to some bond fund managers that economic resilience and high bond supply are now playing a larger role than second-guessing the Federal Reserve. Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, tend to rise in an inflationary environment because inflation erodes the value of a future bond payout. But while higher moves in bond yields in the last several months were often driven by investors pricing in higher interest rates as the Fed sought to tame rising inflation, expectations on the pace of price rises have moved lower in recent weeks. Long-term Treasury yields account for factors such as inflation expectations and term premiums, or what investors demand to be compensated for the risk of holding long-term paper. A recent string of strong economic data despite higher interest rates has strengthened investor beliefs that interest rates will remain higher for longer, even if inflation is tamed.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Bond, ”, Calvin Norris, John Madziyire, Anthony Woodside, “, Aegon's Norris, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Anna Driver Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Aegon Asset Management, Investors, Bank of Japan, BMO Capital Markets, Treasury, Securities, Reuters, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, America

☆ Stocks are still much better than bonds for generating long-term wealth, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

There's "no way" bonds are better than stocks for long-term investors, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said. By the time investors have doubled their money in bonds, they've quintupled their money in stocks, he estimated. Siegel has turned more bullish on stocks and the US economy over the past year amid inflation's decline. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is currently trading with price-to-earnings ratio of about 20, which means stocks have around a 5% yield. "By the time you've doubled your money in bonds, you've multiplied your money by five times in stocks," Siegel said in an interview with CNBC on Monday.

Persons: Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, they've, Siegel, Jay Powell Organizations: Service, Treasury, Securities, Federal Reserve, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Annuities, stocks or Treasurys? Pros weigh in on the best source of retirement income right now
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Treasury yields and stocks have more upside ahead, according to some Wall Street investors, and annuities are yielding more than ever. So if you're nearing — or already in — retirement, which offers the best source of income? Stocks vs. annuities David Dietze, senior investment strategist at Peapack Private Wealth Management, recommended annuities and stocks — with some caveats. Right now, however, Rekenthaler said he would go for annuities, bonds or funds because real interest rates are high. Treasurys Samana of Wells Fargo Investment Institute said she likes Treasurys best — given the firm's expectations of a recession.

Persons: David Dietze, Dietze, John Rekenthaler, Rekenthaler, Samana, Morningstar Organizations: CNBC, Wealth Management, Morningstar, Securities, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, ExxonMobil, Shell Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S, Samana

☆ US Treasury surveys dealers on auctions, buyback program
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

July 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department is asking primary dealers their views on what specific bonds it should issue more of when it needs to raise more funds through the bond market, and for details around how a likely bond repurchase program would work. The Treasury noted that it may need to “modestly” increase the size of some of its coupon-bearing debt auctions as soon as August and asked banks which maturities they expect to see increased, and how size increases should be managed across the Treasury curve. It also queried dealers on whether it should increase sales of floating-rate notes and/or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as part of this process. The Treasury also asked banks their opinions on details around a bond repurchase program that it has previously indicated is likely to begin in 2024. The questions are being posed as part of its regular survey of dealers before each of its quarterly refunding announcements.

Persons: Karen Brettell, Chizu Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Treasury, Securities, Thomson

Jetcityimage | Istock | Getty ImagesAs inflation falls, investors are weighing whether to buy or sell Series I bonds amid other competitive options for cash. "Cooling inflation means that interest rates are likely near the end of their increases," said certified financial planner Ted Haley, president of Advanced Wealth Management in Portland, Oregon. But in the meantime, many investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision later this month, which may affect cash yields. While the yearly rate fell to 4.3% in May 2023, the fixed rate portion climbed to 0.9%, making the asset more attractive for long-term investors. Of course, the next fixed rate for I bonds could be higher or lower.

Persons: Ted Haley, Haley, David Enna, Enna, Ken Tumin, DepositAccounts.com Organizations: Istock, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Advanced Wealth Management, Federal Locations: Portland , Oregon

☆ A fund manager for institutional clients shares the offensive and defensive strategies she uses to build portfolios that can navigate all conditions and last generations — plus what all investors can
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Menon has discretion over several institutional clients' portfolios including endowments, foundations, pensions, and healthcare institutions. Regardless of expectations, Menon emphasizes that it's hard to build a portfolio around any particular macroeconomic outcome. This means creating a portfolio that prioritizes offensive assets through equities while adding defensive securities, she noted. When it comes to defensive positions, the two most important things a portfolio needs protection against are inflation and deflation. "Private equity would fall more in the space of offense in terms of generating long-term growth in a portfolio," Menon said.

☆ Series I bonds still 'attractive for longer-term investors' as annual rate falls to 4.3%, expert says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Series I bonds will pay 4.3% annual interest through October, a drop from 6.89% in November amid falling inflation, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced on Friday. There are two parts to I bond interest rates: a fixed rate that stays the same after purchase, and a variable rate, which changes every six months based on inflation. Starting May 1, the new variable rate is 3.38% and the fixed rate is 0.9%. While experts predicted the 3.38% variable rate, the fixed rate, which jumped to 0.9% from 0.4% in November, "definitely makes it attractive for long-term investors," said Ken Tumin, founder and editor of DepositAccounts.com. The 0.9% fixed rate is the highest since November 2007, when I bonds offered 1.2%, Tumin said, noting the new rate was a "pleasant surprise."

☆ Mike Dever has a 40-year track record of outperforming various markets by rejecting conventional wisdom. He told us 4 ways investors can mimic his approach today.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Mike Dever is the founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management and author of "Jackass Investing." Over the course of four decades in investing, Michael Dever has learned that the bedrock of most people's beliefs about the stock market are faulty. Investing in stocks and bonds is adequate portfolio diversification? Dever says investors cost themselves a lot of money every year by falling for phony conventional wisdom, and that there's a better way to invest. Investors also accept limits on how much profit they'll make, but an investor who's concerned about a market downturn might see that as a worthwhile trade.

☆ America's richest banker quadrupled his firm's assets last year by making a massive bet that inflation would spike
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

His firm's assets shot up from $7.5 billion to $32.6 billion after making a big get on inflation, MarketWatch reported. According to MarketWatch, Beal Bank's assets shot up from $7.5 billion in late 2021 to $32.6 billion by the end of 2022 after making a bet timing inflation's sudden spike. Beal Bank bought up $21.2 billion of Treasury bonds, MarketWatch wrote citing sources familiar and filings with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. As a result, Beal Bank's net income rose from $600 million to $1.48 billion over the course of a year. It isn't the first time Beal Bank has deftly navigated a volatile market.

☆ Three investors on how to protect your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Wall Street has been hit with a barrage of complex signals about the economy’s health over the past month. From banking turmoil to weakening jobs data to slowing inflation, and now the start of earnings season, investors have remained largely resilient. So, how should investors protect their portfolios? Investors say there isn’t one asset that Wall Street should pile all their bets on, but there are fundamentals that should underlie their investment strategies. Doug Fincher, portfolio manager at Ionic Capital Management, says investors should brace their portfolios against inflation.

☆ An NYC real estate investor explains why the 'golden age' of being a landlord is over and he's switching to 'safer' investments
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Jason Lalljee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A major NYC landlord told Bloomberg this week that he's selling off the bulk of his properties. He says the shifting political power of tenants and increased costs of being a landlord are why. Ben Carlos Thypin told Bloomberg this week on the "Odd Lots" podcast that he's pursuing an "orderly liquidation" of his properties. Power is slowly shifting from landlords to rentersWhen directly asked by Bloomberg about whether there ever was a "golden age" for landlords, Thypin pointed to research showing how policies in the 1950s helped create a boom for property owners. She added that real estate policies tend to target the creation of new properties, rather than protecting tenants in existing ones.

☆ Jonathan Hirtle launched his $18 billion firm in the wake of the 1987 market crash. He told us what he's holding for the long haul, and what's different about the current bank crisis.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Hirtle also discussed how he's investing clients' money and his long-term market views. Hirtle told Insider that the bank failures of 2023 are very different from what he saw in 1987, or in 2008. So Hirtle says he is concentrating on the long term, and that he prefers the US to other regions. Still, he says that global diversification, and diversification across stocks, bonds, and private equity is important for the long term. In the 2010s bull market, stocks rose about 400% in a little under 11 years.

☆ The CIO of Morningstar Wealth's Americas unit explains why investors focused on the next recession are missing the point — and shares the market areas to buy now for profits in any economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Marta Norton believes that investors hyper-focused on the next recession are missing the point. A glance at the current US economy certainly doesn't paint a very rosy picture for investors. "Very long term return prospects across equities and fixed income are better today than they were a year ago, but markets still aren't priced to really attractive levels," she added. Globally, Norton is also bullish on the communication services due to the sector's attractive valuations and diversification benefits, since some companies have both value and growth characteristics. Norton is also overweight healthcare and consumer staples, two defensive sectors that are more resilient to market volatility and earnings declines.

☆ Analysis: Investors revive inflation trades as 6% Fed rate risk grips Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - Spooked by a flurry of hotter-than-expected U.S. economic and inflation data last month, investors are reviving trading strategies that bet on a higher peak in interest rates. The recalibration in inflation expectations has led some investors to bet on a policy rate of 6% or even higher. Trading platform Tradeweb said it saw average daily volume in inflation swaps - derivatives used to hedge inflation risk - increase by 23% month-on-month in February. With higher inflation expectations lifting short-term bond yields higher than those at the longer end, some investors are wary of committing to debt maturities at the long end of the bond market yield curve. "The momentum in the economy is so strong that we may have to get into 2024 before the Fed funds rate peaks."

☆ Some Treasury bills are now paying 5%. Here's what investors need to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

T-bill yields have been low since the Great Recession, with the exception of 2018. Currently, shorter-term Treasury yields are higher than longer-term yields, which is known as an inverted yield curve. How interest rates affect bond valuesAnother factor to consider is the current economic environment, including future moves at the Fed. Although it's expressed in years, it's different from the bond's maturity since it factors in the coupon, time to maturity and yield paid through the term. "It's always the Fed; the Fed controls short-term interest rates," said David Enna, founder of Tipswatch.com, a website that tracks Treasury inflation-protected securities and other assets.

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