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Despite a strong first half performance for the broad equity markets, ETF equity flows have been subpar this year. The big money has gone into Treasury ETFs and money market funds. First half inflows were subpar The first half ended with a modest acceleration of inflows into equity ETFs. Regardless, first half equity inflows were still well short of the prior years' first half activity. Join us Wednesday at 1:10 p.m. on ETF Edge for our second half ETF playbook.
Persons: Todd Sohn, . Sohn, Sohn, " Sohn, Dave Nadig Organizations: Tech, Energy, P Tech, Nasdaq, Fidelity, Renaissance Capital, Technology, Nvidia, Microsoft, Edge, VettaFi
The 60/40 portfolio doesn't work anymore, according to Bank of America. If the 60/40 portfolio was on life support last year, this year its demise is now "confirmed," Woodard wrote. Bonds require 40% of the assets in a 60/40 portfolio but have delivered only 25% of the returns since 1920, he noted. Weak bond returns will lead to "another lost decade" for the 60/40 portfolio, in Woodard's words. For income, Bank of America's researchers unveiled a strategy called "dynamic prudent yield" that promises to beat bond indexes while carrying less risk.
Persons: Bonds, Jared Woodard, Woodard, Woodward, Schwab Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, RSP, Vanguard, Energy, P Metals, Mining, Uranium, Research, Government Bond ETF, First Trust, Income, Muni Bond ETF, Muni, Blackstone Senior Loan, of America, Bond, SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF, US, iShares, Securities ETF, VanEck Preferred Securities, Financials, Bloomberg, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury
But for investors worried that more Fed rate hikes in the coming months could tip the economy into recession, fixed income might be a more attractive bet. "Municipal bond issuers appear well poised to weather a possible recession in 2023/24. Bank of America has the equivalent of a buy rating on several municipal bond ETFs, including JPMorgan Ultra-Short Municipal Income ETF (JMST) and the iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) . Some large funds that could fit that description include the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) , the Schwab Intermediate-Term US Treasury ETF (SCHR) and the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT). The actively managed Flexible Income ETF (BINC) launched in May and has about $76 million in assets so far, according to FactSet.
Persons: Michelle Cluver, Andrew Slimmon, Slimmon, Russell, Jared Woodard, Woodard, Cluver, Rick Rieder Organizations: Federal, Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, RSP, Nasdaq, Bank of America, JPMorgan Ultra, Muni Bond ETF, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury, BlackRock
It's time for the annual gathering of the trading community. Here's a rundown of some of the hot topics: Crypto in focus: SEC Chair Gary Gensler will be speaking at noon on Thursday. Electronic trading changed the trading world 30 years ago, is AI poised to do the same? Two pioneers of electronic trading, Virtu Financial founder Vinnie Viola and Peterffy, will be speaking at noon today, reflecting on the past and future of trading and will certainly be asked about the role AI will play in future trading. Tradeweb CEO Billy Hult and MarketAxess CEO Chris Concannon will discuss the growth in Treasury trading and the increasing electronification of the bond market.
Persons: I'm, Piper Sandler, Gary Gensler, Gensler, Binance, Michael Novogratz, Jean, Marie Mognetti, Vlad Tenev, Doug Cifu, Thomas Peterffy, Vinnie Viola, Peterffy, Ed Tilly, Terry Duffy, Billy Hult, Chris Concannon, Rich Repetto's, Rich Repetto Organizations: Piper, Piper Sandler Global Exchange, New York City, NYSE, Nasdaq, Cboe, London Stock Exchange, SEC, Galaxy Digital, Virtu, Global, Treasury, CME, Citadel, CNBC PRO Locations: New York
Going long duration reflects expectations U.S. yields will fall because the Fed will be forced to cut rates. During the Fed's aggressive rate-hike phase last year, investors shortened their duration exposure. In terms of price action, U.S. 5-year yields dropped 67 bps since March, suggesting increased demand from investors. U.S. Treasuries rallied in March, pushing yields lower, as the market sought safety during the banking crisis. U.S. two-year yields, which reflect rate expectations, fell nearly 60 bps in March, the largest monthly fall since December 2007.
Major trading platform CEO sees signs of a bond ETF revival
  + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Demand for bond ETFs appears to be rising. According to MarketAxess CEO Chris Concannon, there are signs Treasury ETFs are on the cusp of substantial inflows. "We're about to see what I'd call [a] bond renaissance," the electronic-trading platform CEO told CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week. "The Fed is still taking action, so I would expect bond yields overall to remain relatively high and attractive." Meanwhile, it found corporate bond ETFs saw $6 billion in outflows in the first quarterLydon speculates the renewed interest is caused by investors losing faith in traditional 60/40 investment portfolios.
ETF strategies for long-term outperformance
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
As fears of recession and bank failures fuel investor anxiety, one strategist says the best prospect for outperformance this year is staying long-term invested with a steadfast asset allocation plan. Tierney, director and senior investment portfolio strategist at Schwab Asset Management, told Bob Pisani on CNBC's "ETF Edge" on Monday. Tierney explained that of the 29 Schwab ETFs, 22 of them are seeing new inflows. "Staying long term invested with a good asset allocation plan generally gives the best prospects for long term outperformance. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, echoed Tierney's sentiment on avoiding getting caught up in near-term market turmoil.
ETF trends reflect a wild first quarter for the stock market
  + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
It's the end of a wild first quarter for stock and bond investors, and ETF flows are reflecting that turmoil. The good news: Despite big market swings , equity and bond ETFs still saw overall inflows in the first quarter. ETF flows year to date: $70 billion inflows Consisting of: Equity: $24 billion inflows Fixed Income: $43 billion inflows Other (currency, etc. ): $3 billion inflows Source: ETF Store While that is still inflow, it is far less than has been typical in recent years. Much of that uncertainty can be seen in a notable pickup in money going into money market funds, traditionally a safe haven asset.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTreasury ETFs easier to buy than Treasury notes, says F/M Investments' Alex MorrisAlex Morris, chief investment officer at F/M Investments, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss volatility and positive yields in Treasurys, and the benefits of the Treasury ETFs.
Treasury yields are taking markets by storm. Investors with those preferences have also been flocking to short-term Treasury exchange-traded funds with durations of one to three years. Some examples include Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index ETF and the Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF. Top-rated, short-term bond ETFs But there's another corner of the short-term bond market with yields that could go even higher. CNBC Pro screened for top-rated, ultra-short term bond funds using Morningstar data.
And as yields on 2-year Treasurys approach 5%, single Treasury bond ETFs are attracting big inflows as investors seek balance in an uncertain inflationary environment. The 2-year Treasury yield closed the month of February on a tear, advancing more than 70 basis points for the month and climbing to 4.878% on Wednesday. The iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV) is comprised of securities with one to 12 months of remaining maturity. The SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF tracks between one and three years. Similarly, VettaFi's Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) focuses on exposure to bonds with that maturity duration.
She inquired about buying Treasury bonds directly, which she has never once inquired about in the past. Asking about putting all your money into bonds and chucking the stock market is like the shoeshine boy talking about stock market tips at the top of the stock market. Individuals can of course buy Treasury bonds directly from the U.S. government through TreasuryDirect. Similar products, such as the Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF and the SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF, also have seen significant inflows in recent months. "ETFs for Treasurys are preferred by many, basically all because they trade like a stock," Morris told me.
The recent move higher in Treasury yields appears to be sparking a shift back into short-term bond funds by investors. The 10-year Treasury yield is threatening to climb back above 4%, and the 6-month yield has already topped 5%. The three biggest funds for inflows over the past week were short-term Treasury ETFs, led by the iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV) , according to FactSet. When interest rates are rising, short-term bonds become more attractive for investors. The FolioBeyond Rising Rates ETF (RISR) , which invests in a slice of mortgage products that benefit from higher rates, is still under $100 million in assets despite outperforming in 2022.
With inflation still elevated, a strong economy means the Fed will push on the gas pedal more. To avoid the resulting downturn, invest in short-term Treasurys and emerging market stocks, the firm says. Eventually, that will weigh on economic growth and hurt stocks, BlackRock said in a commentary on Tuesday. The Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and the Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHO) are two vehicles for gaining exposure to short-term government bonds. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and the SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF (SPEM) offer exposure to emerging-market stocks.
Bond yields and prices move inversely to each other so, as rates rose, prices tumbled – and did so at an inopportune time since stocks were suffering, too. Thus, they have higher interest rate risk and greater price fluctuation. He likes short-term Treasury bond funds and ETFs. Another way to mitigate interest rate risk is to use a barbell: You hold equal amounts of shorter and longer-dated issues. "You don't have to reach too far in terms of credit risk and interest rate risk to capture healthy yield in today's environment."
BlackRock launched the AAA CLO ETF (CLOA) less than a month ago, and the product already has about $30 million in assets under management. Panagram Structured Asset Management is exploring riskier versions in the same ETF sector, launching the BBB-B CLO ETF (CLOZ) and surpassing the $20 million mark in less than two weeks. Fixed income funds boom The growth of these funds comes after a boom in fixed income ETFs in 2022, as rising interest rates and high inflation sent investors hunting for ways to generate additional yield. Invesco and VanEck also launched CLO ETFs last year, presenting additional investment options. However, there are diversification benefits to having floating rate ETFs for investors, especially in the U.S. where most fixed income products have a fixed rather than a floating rate, Kerschner said.
Here's how some ETF experts are viewing the year and what types of funds could be winners in 2023. … In 2023, investors should be a lot more selective," said Pedro Palandrani, director of research at Global X ETFs. While those areas would be negatively affected by a recession, infrastructure spending approved earlier in the Biden administration could help create solid demand even if the U.S. consumer weakens. Similarly, iShares highlighted the U.S. Infrastructure ETF (IFRA) and the MSCI Global Agriculture ETF (VEGI) in its 2023 outlook as potential winners, in part due to their inflation-hedging properties . In iShares' 2023 outlook, the firm identified its MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE) and Core S & P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) as two funds that could benefit from a low-growth environment.
The combination of cooling prices and a less aggressive Fed could put pressure on a group of ETFs designed to counter inflation or rising rates — or both — that has attracted significant investor interest this year. Rising rate ETFs For example, the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX) , which has more than $350 million in assets under management, fell 2.8% on Tuesday. The FolioBeyond Rising Rates ETF (RISR) , which has raked in more than $80 million this year, was off 1.3%. Bet on falling rates, inflation? Treasury funds like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (VTIP) have expense ratios of 0.15% and 0.04%, respectively, and will rise in value as yields fall.
There will be things about gridlock the market doesn't like," said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. Meanwhile, under a Republican president, the stock market on average gains 4.9% when Democrats control Congress, and the market gains 7.3% with a split Congress. Strategas Research says the stock market is signaling that Republicans may sweep the election . There are clear stock market winners from a Republican victory, at least in the House. Laperriere, in a note, wrote that tech, small cap and financial firms are most vulnerable to higher taxes and tougher regulations, and they could benefit from a Republican Congress.
The spate of new launches comes as cash floods into fixed income products. "On one hand, it helps explain the dual-edged pain for 60/40 portfolios this year, but the -17% decline now has bond ETFs offering realistic yields as an equity alternative. This helps explain the continued surge to Treasury ETFs, which again led our category workbook with +$12 Bn [last week] and over +$110 Bn YTD," Sohn added. Holly Framsted, the director of ETFs at Capital Group, said the firm is not trying to time the market with its launches but does believe there is an underserved demand for actively managed bond ETFs. Capital Group launched three more fixed income ETFs, including funds focused on municipal bonds and short duration bonds, last week.
That means that market rates could fall, even if the Fed continues to hike for the next few months. Bond yields move opposite of price, so the ETFs should go up in value. There are several large ETFs on the market focused on Treasurys, including the iShares' 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) . Similarly, Vanguard offers the Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) , which has a fee of just 0.04%. Corporate bonds carry more risk than Treasurys, but should rally if Treasury yields fall.
The three major averages closed higher Friday, with the S & P 500 adding 2.37% to close at 3,752.75. Stovall said the S & P 500 had six positive moves of 1% or more in the last 17 trading days, as of Friday. Earnings, earnings, earnings About 150 S & P 500 companies report earnings in the coming week. Technically speaking Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com, said he is watching a formation in the S & P 500 that could be positive. His first target for the S & P 500 is 3,800.
As yields rose from just under 4% Tuesday morning, the stock market rally lost some steam. That should help stocks rally into year end, but he expects the yield to rise again next year, challenging the market. But he is encouraged by the strength of the rally and says there's a chance this could be the start of a new bull market. "You could always side conservatively and assume it's a bear market rally," he said. But he is also watching the market day-to-day, and expects it is in a bear market rally, rather than a new bull trend.
At the same time, odds for a Republican sweep on Nov. 8 have risen. Individual solar and other renewable names are also down sharply, like First Solar, which is in the Strategas Democratic portfolio. Clifton said his portfolios are pointing to a 60% chance of a Republican sweep, while betting markets are at 50/50. Among the holdings in the Republican portfolio are companies that would benefit from distribution and transportation of oil and gas, like Enterprise Products Partners. "The market is increasingly pricing in a Republican sweep.
The latest threat to stocks now isn't any macro risk — it's rising 2-year Treasury yields, according to some fund managers and strategists. Short-term, relatively risk-free Treasury bonds and funds are back in the spotlight as the yield on the 2-year Treasury continues to surge. Meanwhile, U.S.-listed short-term Treasury ETFs have attracted $7 billion of inflows so far in September — six times the volume of inflows last month, BlackRock said. Here's what analysts say about how to allocate your portfolio right now. This sees investors put 60% of their portfolio in stocks, and 40% bonds.
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