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Heightened tensions in the Middle East, including the possibility of Iran attacking Israel, sent stocks back down and oil prices higher. If the choice is between a weak economy with lower rates or a strong economy with higher rates, we'll take the strong economy every time. Low rates may help with valuation multiples, but it's a strong economy that leads to earnings growth and that's what we, as long-term investors care about. Shelter costs are a major sticking point for overall inflation, which makes Tuesday's housing starts and building permits report a key watch item. We'll get another look at housing with the release of the March existing home sales report on Thursday.
Persons: we've, we'll, Morgan Stanley, Wells, bode, we're, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Johnson, ERIC, JB Hunt, Kinder Morgan, DR, Ally, Huntington, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Abbott, Ethan Miller Organizations: Dow Jones, Wednesday, Federal Reserve, Abbott Labs, Cardiovascular Systems, Diagnostics, Procter & Gamble, Constellation Brands, Procter, T Bank, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, BK, PNC Financial, PNC, Ericsson, United Airlines, Interactive, ASML Holdings, US Bancorp, Citizens, Alcoa, CSX, Discover Financial, Nokia, Alaska Air, Blackstone BX, McLennan, Netflix, PPG Industries, Gamble, Financial, American Express, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Las Vegas Convention, Getty Locations: Iran, Israel, China, Marsh, Las Vegas , Nevada
To see the impact of higher inflation and higher interest rates on companies, just look at the earnings release for CarMax this morning. For example, higher rates are generally bad for REITs beause REITs rely on debt financing. Higher rates also mean increased borrowing costs for utilities, which carry a lot of debt because they use a lot of capital. The problem is, energy and material stocks have already been rising due to higher oil and a still strong economy. Other potential beneficiaries of higher rates with a strong economy are defensive stocks, which tend to be less interest rate sensitive, like Kroger or Walmart .
Organizations: Energy, Communication, Kroger, Walmart Locations: Meta
IEI has a 30-day SEC yield of 4.26% and carries an expense ratio of 0.15%. BINC, which is actively managed, has a 30-day SEC yield of 5.6% and a net expense ratio of 0.4%. Investors can use ETFs to tackle that space: Vanguard's Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) has a 30-day SEC yield of 5.33%. There's also the iShares 5-10 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (IGIB) , offering a 30-day SEC yield of 5.4%. Hunting dividend payers Higher rates have overshadowed opportunities among dividend-paying stocks, which look less attractive to income investors who can find risk-free yields easily.
Persons: it's, Michael Carbone, Carbone, Gargi Chaudhuri, Collin Martin, There's, Michael Clarfeld Organizations: Dow Jones, Traders, Federal, Treasury Bond ETF, SEC, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Corporate Locations: Chelmsford , Massachusetts, BlackRock, ClearBridge
Economists polled by FactSet anticipate the March consumer price index will show prices rising by 0.3% on a monthly basis, less than February's 0.4% advance. Similarly, the March producer price index is expected to show an increase of 0.5%, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Monday April 8 Tuesday April 9 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (March) Wednesday April 10 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (March) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/06) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index PPI Earnings: CarMax Friday April 12 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (March) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (April) Earnings: State Street , Wells Fargo , JPMorgan Chase , Progressive , Citigroup
Persons: Stocks, we're, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Mayfield, FactSet, David Einhorn, CNBC's Scott Wapner, he's, Michelle Bowman, Bank's Tom Hainlin, Hainlin, Jamie Myers, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Treasury Bond, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, . West Texas, Treasury, Fed, Investment Group, Investors Intelligence, American Association of, Walmart, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Index, Treasury Budget NSA, Air Lines, Price Index, Progressive Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan
"We believe the recent back up in rates is probably the last best opportunity to extend duration," wrote Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist, Americas, at BlackRock. Generally speaking, the value of a bond goes up as interest rates go down, with longer-dated bonds seeing the biggest gains. While bond funds have been seeing inflows this year, there are still plenty of investors with excess cash in short-term accounts. Different funds that offer that type of exposure include the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) , the SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (SPTI) and the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) . Investors shouldn't go overboard with adding duration, because the long-term bonds on the market carry extra risk, Akullian said.
Persons: BlackRock's, Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, Kristy Akullian, It's, Akullian, Investors shouldn't Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Investment Company Institute, BlackRock, CNBC, Treasury Bond ETF, Research, Investors Locations: Americas, BlackRock, US10Y
Market chaos could come next year if the US doesn't adjust its fiscal path, Joao Gomes told CNBC. The US can't afford to extend tax cuts next year, he said. If it doesn't adjust its fiscal trajectory soon, 2025 could be the year when markets start to roil, Wharton professor Joao Gomes warned. "That's something that could definitely happen to us next year," Gomes told CNBC on Thursday. "I think we'll have a serious debate next year about the tax cuts and whether to extend them or not," he said.
Persons: Joao Gomes, Wharton, , It's, Gomes, Maya MacGuineas, Gomes isn't, Jamie Dimon, Ken Griffin Organizations: CNBC, US, Service, Bank of America, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Trump Administration, White House, Federal, Wall Locations: roil
Despite enticing alternatives, a fixed-rate mortgage remains the best option for us. With mortgage interest rates still close to 7%, alternative mortgages like adjustable-rate loans and mortgages with shorter maturities are gaining in popularity. AdvertisementThe beauty of the fixed-rate mortgage is that it offers certainty in an uncertain world. Any gain somebody might get with a lower interest rate might be offset by paying more for the house. So, we will be sticking with a fixed-rate mortgage and shopping around for the best rate.
Persons: , Sarah Alvarez, Alvarez, Brandon Bell, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service, William, Mortgage, Business, ARM, Treasury, Street Journal, FG, National Association of Realtors Locations: Austin , Texas
The price of bond funds like TLT move in the opposite direction of bond yields, meaning lower prices equal higher yields. TLT 1M mountain The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF has fallen for eight straight trading sessions. Only two of the trading sessions have seen a decline of more than 0.5%. One of the TLT's main competitors, the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) , also fell for eight-straight trading sessions. The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) has only fallen in five of the past eight sessions, for example.
Persons: Jason Goepfert Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury, Federal, White Oak Consultancy
Read previewRisk is back in fashion on Wall Street as investors shed their fears and become more adventurous with their cash. Wall Street is betting big on a soft landing, where the Fed succeeds in bringing inflation down without unemployment surging or a recession taking hold. Related storiesSimilarly, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent outlook that "risk appetite is poised to grow" this year as recession relief and rate cuts embolden investors. When the music stopsThe outlook for stocks and the economy might seem brighter, but it's worth being at least a little skeptical of the current enthusiasm. "Nobody seems to care about valuations, and now you have Wall Street strategists laying claim that we are in a brand new era," veteran economist David Rosenberg said in a recent note.
Persons: , BII, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg, Jeremy Grantham, there's, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Investors, BlackRock Investment Institute, Nvidia, Grantham, Swissquote Bank Locations: BlackRock
Here are six recent bubble warnings from experts this week:Advertisement1. "We are nonetheless in a market bubble." Paul Dietrich"The Stock Market Bubble Is About to Burst — Look Out!" AdvertisementGrantham also suggested the AI craze would end and bring the stock market down with it. Michael GayedGayed flagged the recent surge in gold, utility stocks, and long-term Treasury bonds as evidence of mounting market jitters in an InvestorPlace op-ed this week.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Jeremy Grantham Stocks, Grantham, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Larry Summers, Summers, Michael Gayed Gayed Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Business, Rosenberg Research, North, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Tidal Locations: North American
Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.
Persons: , David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office
New York CNN —The average federal tax refund is more than $3,000, according to the latest data from the IRS. … They don’t understand how much interest they’re paying,” Russ said. Create or add to an emergency fundYou can use your refund to start or bolster an emergency fund. If you have high-rate debt and you’re lacking emergency savings, Russ suggested you might use a portion of your refund to attack your debt and the other portion to create an emergency fund. If you need the money within three years, you might consider putting your refund in certificates of deposits and US Treasury bonds.
Persons: you’re, , Eric Bronnenkant, Keyana Russ, ” Russ, Russ, Bronnenkant, Roth,  Bronnenkant, Charles Schwab, ” Bronnenkant Organizations: New, New York CNN, Ponds Financial, Invest, Roth IRA, Treasury Locations: New York, Ponds
They were forced into action after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed on March 10, 2023, quickly followed by two other lenders, First Republic and Signature Bank. Faced with the threat of a billowing crisis that could threaten the banking industry — the worst one since 2008 — rivals and regulators put together a huge bailout fund. Indeed, many bankers and their lobbyists now rush to describe the period as a regional banking crisis, a term that tends to understate how worried the industry was at the time. One reason for the increased tensions is that government officials are proposing rule changes that lenders argue will crimp their businesses, and would not have done much to stem Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. In just a few days last March, Silicon Valley Bank went from a darling of the banking world to collapse.
Organizations: First, Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Silicon
Costco recently started selling silver coins for the first time, finance chief Richard Galanti told CNN. Costco is trying to replicate its recent success with gold bars. It began selling $2,000 gold bars online in September and sold more than $100 million worth of the bars last quarter. After all, not many people are actually stashing away gold bars in their homes. We constantly buy that stuff and intentionally run out of it from time to time.”Costco is also selling precious metals as they become more valuable.
Persons: Richard Galanti, King Charles III, , , Galanti Organizations: New, New York CNN, Costco, CNN, Federal Reserve, Treasury Locations: New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina plan to issue $139 billion in 'ultra-long' special treasury bonds a positive surprise: AnalystWendy Chen, senior investment analyst at GAM Investments, says that means China's central government is "taking more share of the burden — in terms of fiscal stimulus — from the local governments."
Persons: Wendy Chen Organizations: China, GAM Investments
Liu Liqun | Corbis Documentary | Getty ImagesChina may want a "new leap forward" in "productive forces" — but President Xi Jinping may need to resort to an old tactic to hit the country's ambitious growth target this year, one economist warns. While scant on specifics, the work report appears to suggest Beijing is refraining from the aggressive, bazooka-like stimulus that some markets observers were expecting. China has historically resorted to infrastructure building as a short-term fix to boost growth, particularly after the 2008-09 financial crisis. Goldman Sachs economists said that this pledge is the "most important positive surprise" from this year's government work report. Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivers a speech during the opening of the second session of the 14th National People's Congress at The Great Hall of People on March 5, 2024 in Beijing, China.
Persons: Liu Liqun, Xi Jinping, Wang Dan, Wang, Erica Tan, Goldman Sachs, Li Qiang, Li, Lintao Zhang Organizations: Bund, Getty, Hang Seng Bank, CNBC, China Investment Corporation, Maybank, Seng Bank, National People's Congress, of People Locations: China, Beijing, overcapacity, Covid, Gorges
Stocks may crash 30% and a recession could hit within months, Gary Shilling said. Shilling predicted the housing market would rebound in time, and dismissed de-dollarization fears. AdvertisementA legendary market prophet has warned that overpriced stocks may come crashing down, and a recession might strike within months. "Stocks are very, very expensive now" relative to both corporate earnings and rival assets like Treasury bonds, Gary Shilling recently told the Retirement Lifestyle Advocates radio show. The president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. is known for making several prescient market calls over the past four decades.
Persons: Gary Shilling, Shilling, , Merrill Lynch's, bitcoin, It's, there's Organizations: Service, Polaroid, Federal Reserve, Fed, Companies, Homes, greenback
An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. Crude oil futures fell for a second consecutive day Tuesday as China's pledge to boost economic growth and OPEC+ production cuts failed to lift prices. The West Texas Intermediate contract for April dropped 72 cents, or 0.91%, to $78.02 a barrel. May Brent futures shed 57 cents, or 0.69%, to $82.83 a barrel. The Beijing government on Tuesday set an economic growth target of about 5% for 2024 and announced the issuance of $138.9 billion in "ultra-long" special Treasury bonds to fund major projects.
Persons: Brent Organizations: West Texas Intermediate Locations: Mangystau, Kazakhstan, Beijing
The rise in multi-manager hedge funds over the past five years has forced allocators to create a separate due diligence model for the fastest-growing segment in the industry. Even an executive at a midsized multi-manager admits their firm and its peers are "more like corporations than hedge funds." AdvertisementA new type of hedge-fund kingsFounders were once simply the best traders and money-makers, spinning out of banks' trading desks and larger hedge funds. Bobby Jain, the former Millennium executive starting his own multi-billion hedge fund, hasn't traded in decades but was a part of the leadership team at one of the biggest hedge funds in the world. Jobs at multi-manager platforms are roughly a quarter of the industry's overall roles, despite these funds holding roughly 14% of the assets.
Persons: , allocators, Griffin's, Izzy Englander's, Jack Springate, Allen Cheng, Cheng, Bobby Jain, hasn't, Michael Gelband, Dmitry Balyasny, Steve Cohen, Izzy Englander, Ajay, Kevin Lyons, Lyons, Springate Organizations: Service, Business, Fortune, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Aon, Millennium, Treasury Locations: Schonfeld's
Investor sentiment toward intermediate-term Treasury bonds may be changing. "So, they're looking to reposition the fixed-income portion of their portfolio to take advantage of where interest rates are likely to go next." It's a shift from last year when short-term bonds and money market funds saw large inflows. "Taking on some duration risk makes sense, but I wouldn't go too far out on the curve," he said. "The risk-return dynamics [of] getting too far out on the long end don't make a ton of sense to me."
Persons: David Botset, you'll, Nate Geraci Organizations: Federal
Courtesy of Susie Buffett Buffett teaches a class at the University of Nebraska-Omaha. Courtesy of Susie Buffett Buffett married his first wife, Susan, in 1952. Courtesy of Susie Buffett Buffett and his wife pose at the beach with their three children. Courtesy of Susie Buffett Buffett poses for a photo in 1980. Nati Harnik/AP Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger are seen on a giant screen during the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting in 2013.
Persons: Warren Buffett’s, Charlie Munger, Buffett, Munger, , Charlie, Berkshire Hathaway, “ Charlie, Munger’s, Greg Abel, Abel, Berkshire’s, Greg, ” Buffett, “ Greg, Berkshire Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, Nati, Laila, Howard Buffett, Howard, Susie Buffett, Ernest, Susie Buffett Laila Buffett, Warren, Doris, Susie Buffett Warren Buffett, Susie Buffett Buffett, Susan, Peter, Lee Balterman, Salomon, Marcy Nighswander, AP Buffett, Buffett's, Mark Peterson, Curt Hudson, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Kathy Willens, Chris Machian, Dave Weaver, Michael Israel, John Sleezer, Bill Gates, Mario Tama, Barack Obama, Obama, doggedly, isn't, Jim Watson, Daniel Acker, Harry Benson, Getty Images Buffett, Astrid, David Cameron, Brendan Hoffman, Kristoffer Tripplaar, Alamy Buffett, Scott Eells, Chris, Franklin, Ndamukong Suh, Scott Olson, Huang Jihui, Jason Miller, Adam Jeffery, Hillary Clinton, Kempin, Forbes, Andy Kropa, Scott Morgan, Reuters Buffett, Andrew Harrer, Apple Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: New, New York CNN, Berkshire Hathaway, Investors, Oracle, , Berkshire, Berkshire Berkshire, University of Nebraska -, Getty, Federal Reserve, AP, Omaha for Berkshire, Bloomberg, California Gov, Wall Street, Schwarzenegger's, Kansas City Royals, Kansas City Star, Girl Scouts, Buffett, Microsoft, Getty Images, White, British, Woodrow Wilson High, Washington, Forbes, Harlem Globetrotters, Cleveland Cavaliers, Moon, NBA, CNBC, Reuters, Apple Berkshire, Apple, Securities and Exchange Commission, HP, Paramount Locations: New York, Omaha, “ Berkshire, Berkshire, The Omaha , Nebraska, Omaha , Nebraska, University of Nebraska - Omaha, Omaha for, Woodstock, Trenton , New Jersey, AFP, Washington , DC, Illinois, Sun Valley , Idaho
ETF Edge, February 21, 2024
  + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailETF Edge, February 21, 2024David Botset, Schwab Asset Management head of innovation and stewardship, and Nate Geraci, The ETF Store president, join CNBC's Bob Pisani on 'ETF Edge' to discuss the risk of high tech concentration, spot bitcoin trading, the growing investor appetite for intermediate-term Treasury bonds and more.
Persons: David Botset, Nate Geraci, Bob Pisani Organizations: Schwab Asset Management
The Leading Economic Index fell for the 22nd consecutive month in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The Leading Economic Index brings all of those together to gauge the future state of the economy across multiple dimensions, from growth and unemployment to consumer demand and homebuilding. Here's a screenshot showing the index's historic decline, from The Conference Board's latest release:AdvertisementThe Leading Economic Index has consistently declined ahead of previous recessions. There's no guarantee these four market veterans are right about the Leading Economic Index.
Persons: , Here's, joblessness, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Jeremy Grantham, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gary Shilling, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Conference Board, Treasury, Manufacturers, Institute, Supply, The Conference, Board, Rosenberg Research, North, DoubleLine, Conference Locations: North American
Rock & hard place: What's a bond investor to do now?
  + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRock & hard place: What's a bond investor to do now? David Botset, Schwab Asset Management head of innovation and stewardship, and Nate Geraci, The ETF Store president, join CNBC's Bob Pisani on 'ETF Edge' to discuss the growing appetite for intermediate-term Treasury bonds and the bond conundrum facing investors.
Persons: David Botset, Nate Geraci, Bob Pisani Organizations: Schwab Asset Management
America has gone from a pandemic crash and recession fears to stocks at record highs and an economic boom. Lockdowns, wars, shortages, inflation, interest rates, day trading, and AI have all played a role. Noam Galai/SOPA/Getty ImagesMany Americans also socked away money during the pandemic, as they saved on expenses like travel and live entertainment. Stimulus-fueled demand, combined with pandemic and war-related supply disruptions, caused inflation to spike to a 40-year high of 9.1% in June that year. The Fed swiftly raised interest rates to rein in the price growth, lifting them from virtually zero to upward of 5% in under 18 months, and hasn't touched them since.
Persons: , We've, Noam Galai, hasn't, It's, dory Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, GameStop, AMC Entertainment, AMC, Bank Locations: America, China, Ukraine
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