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The 10-year yield on Thursday afternoon stood at about 4.7%, some 18 basis points from the 16-year highs touched last week. “Every time the Fed pauses, yields come down, but the market is not convinced they’re quite there yet." There's plenty of evidence that financial conditions, which reflect the availability of credit in the economy, have tightened in recent months. Credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. Fed funds futures show investors pricing in a roughly 15% chance of the central bank's raising rates next month, from around 27% last week.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Leslie Falconio, they’re, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Mark Dowding, Goldman Sachs, Edward Al, Hussainy, Neuberger Berman, Jonathan Cohn, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, . Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, Dallas Fed, RBC Global Asset Management, Reuters, Treasury, Columbia, Nasdaq, Nomura Securities International, Thomson

☆ Car buyers can get their EV tax credits up front at the dealership starting in January
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Ella Nilsen | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —People shopping for electric vehicles starting next year will be able to get a $7,500 federal tax credit off the sticker price while at the dealership, rather than having to wait months to receive their tax returns. The changes to how car buyers can get the federal tax break on EVs — part of the Inflation Reduction Act — were announced by the Biden administration on Friday, and are being rolled out to car dealerships before they take effect starting January 1. More foreign companies are building EV factories in the US in order to take advantage of the tax credits in the future. The Biden administration is currently contacting dealers with information on how they register with a new federal website to eventually offer consumers up-front tax credits. Car dealers will then be reimbursed by the government within 72 hours of selling the car, according to a Treasury news release.

Persons: Biden, ”, Laurel Blatchford, Ford Organizations: CNN, Treasury, “, IRS, General Motors, Volkswagen, George Washington University

☆ Rising Interest Rates Mean Deficits Finally Matter
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Greg Ip | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Investors are still projecting that the Federal Reserve will get inflation down to its 2% goal. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesThe U.S. has long been the lender of last resort to the world. During the emerging-market panics of the 1990s, the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the pandemic shutdown of 2020, it was the Treasury’s unmatched capacity to borrow that came to the rescue.

Persons: Michael M Organizations: Federal Reserve

Employers added only 89,000 jobs in September, well below expectations, private payroll firm ADP said on Wednesday. "We are seeing a steepening decline in jobs this month," said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. The report is the second to come this week on the health of the job market. On Tuesday, the Labor Department issued its report on job openings for August, with a surprising 9.6 million jobs available. While the job market has slowed in 2023, it still remains tight by historical standards.

Persons: Nela Richardson, ”, Lightcast, Rachel Sederberg, Julia Pollak, José Torres Organizations: ADP, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Interactive Brokers

Mexico and China are the primary sources for fentanyl and fentanyl-related substances trafficked directly into the U.S., according to the Drug Enforcement Administration, which is tasked with combating illicit drug trafficking. And last year a group of Republican attorneys general asked the president to declare fentanyl a weapon of mass destruction. The U.S. has taken a slew of actions to stem the tide of fentanyl coming into the country. And state lawmakers nationwide are responding to the deadliest overdose crisis in U.S. history by pushing harsher penalties for possessing fentanyl. It would also impose reporting requirements and enable the president to confiscate sanctioned property of fentanyl traffickers to use for law enforcement efforts.

Persons: “, ”, Wally Adeyemo, Adeyemo, Joe Biden, Antony Blinken, Biden, General Merrick Garland, Lindsay Whitehurst Organizations: WASHINGTON, United States, Treasury, Justice, Homeland Security, Drug Enforcement Agency, U.S . Postal, Justice Department, Drug Enforcement Administration, Republican, Disease Control, Banking, Armed Services, Associated Locations: U.S, China, Canada, United, Mexico, Sinaloa, Mexican, Wilmington , Delaware

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden announced new U.S. sanctions Friday on “some of Iran's more egregious human rights abusers” as he marked the anniversary of the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who died while being held by the country's morality police. Amini had been detained for allegedly wearing her hijab too loosely in violation of laws that require women in public to wear the Islamic headscarf. Her death set off protests in dozens of cities across the country of 80 million people, with young women marching in the streets and publicly exposing and cutting off their hair. Taken in coordination with the U.K., Canada, Australia, and other nations, this is the United States' 13th round of sanctions designations in response to Iran’s crackdown on protests. The U.S. has already sanctioned over 70 Iranian people and entities “responsible for supporting the regime’s oppression of its people," Biden said.

Persons: Joe Biden, ”, Amini, Biden, Antony Blinken, ” Blinken, Jon Gambrell Organizations: WASHINGTON, Treasury’s, Foreign, Iran’s Prisons Organization, paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, Press, State Department, Associated Press Locations: Islamic Republic, Iran, Fars, U.S, Canada, Australia, United States, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

☆ New Zealand forecasts much larger budget deficit but improved economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/David Gray/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWELLINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - New Zealand’s government on Tuesday predicted a larger budget deficit but better-than-expected economic conditions in the year ahead, as it updated forecasts heading into the October election. The government forecast a budget deficit of NZ$11.4 billion ($6.7 billion) for the year ending June 30, 2024, much larger than a deficit of NZ$7.6 billion estimated in May. The global economy has deteriorated since May, which is having a direct impact on New Zealand's economy while tax revenue is also falling, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said in a statement. "Treasury’s latest forecasts show the economy isn’t working for Kiwis," said National Party leader Christopher Luxon. ($1 = 1.6926 New Zealand dollars)Reporting by Lucy Craymer; Editing by Sam Holmes and Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: David Gray, Grant Robertson, Robertson, ", Christopher Luxon, Lucy Craymer, Sam Holmes, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Finance, Zealanders, Treasury, Kiwis, National Party, Reserve Bank of New, Zealand, Thomson Locations: Wellington , New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Befitting the relationship, the path has been thorny, according to accounts shared with CNN by several sources familiar with the talks. The United States and Iran don’t have diplomatic relations, and public overtures by Washington to engage directly with Tehran on the matter were rebuffed. Swiss diplomats serve as the protecting power – the eyes and ears on the ground – for the US in Iran. Sources said that bringing the Americans back home had been a priority from the outset of President Joe Biden’s tenure. Now, US officials say the work continues, but they are cautiously optimistic that the five could be coming home.

Persons: “, Antony Blinken, –, Adrienne Watson, Trump, Biden, Joe Biden’s, Morad, Shargi –, Namazi, Obama, ” Blinken Organizations: Washington CNN, CNN, Washington, National Security, White, US Treasury, State Department, US Treasury Department, Biden Locations: Iran, Doha, –, Washington, Tehran, United States, East, Europe, Qatar, Oman, United Kingdom, Switzerland, American, Swiss, South Korea

☆ Fitch downgrades mortgage giants Fannie and Freddie from AAA to AA+
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —The credit ratings of US mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were downgraded by Fitch Ratings on Wednesday, the day after Fitch cut the US sovereign rating from the top-ranked AAA to AA+. The firm downgraded the mortgage giants’ Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) and senior unsecured debt ratings from AAA to AA+. The ratings agency said that as government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac benefit from implicit government support. But this flow of funds could be disrupted if the United States defaults on its debt, Fitch warned. It also said that should the US sovereign debt rating be raised, the GSEs’ rating would move in tandem.

Persons: Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Fitch, ’, Freddie, Fannie, Fannie Mae’s, Freddie Mac’s, ” Organizations: CNN, Fitch, AAA, AA, Congress, Federal Housing Finance Agency, U.S, Treasury’s Locations: United States

☆ Auction sizes set to increase at US Treasury refunding
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Treasury earlier this month posted a $228 billion budget deficit for June, up 156% from a year earlier. "They have to grow coupon auction sizes - not just at the August refunding, not just at the November refunding, but also at the February refunding as well, because they are ultimately trying to balance this supply picture between bills vs coupons and this growing financing need," Swiber said. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) recommends that bills make up 15-20% of the total marketable debt. The Treasury will release its quarterly borrowing requirement Monday afternoon, and its refunding news comes Wednesday at 0830 ET/1230 GMT. The Treasury surveyed dealers about their opinion on how some details of the program should work ahead of the August refunding.

Persons: Steven Zeng, Meghan Swiber, Swiber, Ben Jeffery, Karen Brettell, Davide Barbuscia, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S . Treasury Department, Treasury, COVID, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ FedNow: A new instant payment system may be coming to a bank near you
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

“The Federal Reserve built the FedNow Service to help make everyday payments over the coming years faster and more convenient,” said Fed Chair Jerome Powell. FedNow instant payments won’t benefit you, however, if:You don’t have a bank or credit union accountYour financial institution is not part of the FedNow network. If your bank or credit union is among them, it may take some time before they start offering instant payments and deposits for customers using FedNow. And some initially may only offer to receive FedNow payments for their customers, but not send them. And in this first phase of use, the FedNow Service will only be available to process domestic payments between US depository institutions.

Persons: ”, Jerome Powell, “, it’s, Wells Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Service, FedNow Service, …, Fiscal Service, JPMorgan Chase, Community Bank Locations: New York, Treasury’s, Wells Fargo

☆ The bond and stock markets might finally agree on Fed expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —The bond and stock markets are finally seeing eye to eye when it comes to the Federal Reserve. Stocks and the 10-year Treasury’s real yield have begun moving inversely again, according to a research note from Morgan Stanley. That’s a reversal from earlier this year, when yields and stocks both moved higher. A concurrent rally both in bond yields and stocks is atypical. The Consumer Price Index report for June showed that annual inflation slowed to 3%, marking its lowest rate since March 2021.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, George Cipolloni, they’re, ”, Price, Michael Kushma, We’re, Laura He, Read, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Stocks, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Penn Mutual Asset Management, Nasdaq, Cyberspace Administration, Financial Services, Bank of America, US Bancorp, Ally, American Express Locations: China

☆ Treasury’s Sanctions Chief Is Appointed Director of Financial Crimes Bureau
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Dylan Tokar | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

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Persons: Dow Jones

☆ Fed's Logan says more rate hikes needed amid unexpected economic strength
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Logan is a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year. Officials were still worried about inflation and flagged a still strong job market, while a minority of policymakers expressed interest in raising rates at the June meeting. Logan also said that she doesn’t see anything tied to the Fed’s balance sheet drawdown affecting the Fed’s rate choices right now, and said the Treasury’s work to rebuild its cash account is unlikely to hit bank reserves, with the cash instead drawn from the Fed's reverse repo facility. Logan said after her formal remarks that she was surprised markets expect a sooner end to the balance sheet drawdown than she bets is likely. Reporting by Michael S. Derby Editing by Nick ZieminskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Lorie Logan, ’, ” Logan, ”, Logan, Jerome Powell, John Williams, it’s, “, Michael S, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Columbia University, , New York Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: ,

☆ Crypto is dead: long live crypto!
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

The end of near-zero interest rates, quantitative easing and pandemic-era fiscal stimulus has sent prices crashing back to earth. Rising real interest rates have proved to be kryptonite for crypto, as for so many other speculative assets. The normalisation of interest rates may have done for crypto in its most recent incarnation as a get-rich-quick scheme. The proposition that the circulation of private currencies might be economically beneficial has also been around for a while. Nevertheless, history shows that for privately issued currencies to attain critical mass it has typically required more than just the availability of viable alternatives.

Persons: cryptocurrencies, Gary Gensler, noncompliance, Balaji Srinivasan, marc ”, Paul Krugman, Friedrich Hayek’s, Money ”, James Steuart, ”, Crypto, Long, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Coinbase, SEC, State, Brixton, counterparties, Central Bank of, Thomson Locations: Ithaca, Scottish, United States, Central Bank of Argentina

☆ Treasury’s $1 Trillion Debt Deluge Threatens Market Calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Eric Wallerstein | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasurys-1-trillion-debt-deluge-threatens-market-calm-f2173ef4

Persons: Dow Jones

☆ Premarket stocks: The uber-wealthy are doing just fine and Wall Street is cashing in
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But that’s not the case for everyone: The ultra-wealthy are doing just fine, and Wall Street firms are taking advantage of that. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, has slipped into recession as energy price shocks took their toll on consumer spending. In the past 10 weeks, JPMorgan Global Wealth Management opened 40,000 new accounts. Last year, it added around one new client with assets of $100 million or more per day, Mary Erdoes, head of asset and wealth management at the bank, told investors last week. Dollar General customers turn to food banksDollar General (DG) stock had one of its worst days ever on Thursday.

Persons: New York CNN —, that’s, JPMorgan Chase, Andy Cohen, Mary Erdoes, It’s, Goldman Sachs, Louis Vuitton, Dom Pérignon, Dior, Huw Roberts, Hermes —, Roberts, ”, Erwan, “, Gregory Daco, Allison Morrow, Jeff Owen, Owen, Cash, They’re, Elisabeth Buchwald, Treasury hasn’t, Biden Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Wall, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Global Wealth Management, Citigroup, International Monetary Fund, Lamborghini, HSBC, EY, Dollar, Treasury, US Treasury Locations: New York, China, United States, Germany, Europe, BlackRock

"The risk of a downgrade is exacerbated every time Congress flirts with the debt ceiling," said Calvin Norris, Portfolio Manager & US Rates Strategist at Aegon Asset Management, who sees another downgrade as still a risk. Economic damage from the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling battles had a chilling impact. Rating agency Fitch and other smaller agencies recently placed the U.S. credit rating under review. Reuters GraphicsCASCADE EFFECTInvestors use credit ratings as one of the metrics to assess the risk profiles of governments and companies. In the 2013 debt ceiling crisis the legislative standoff did not cause a rating downgrade, although Fitch placed its rating under review.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Leah Millis, Calvin Norris, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, Fitch, William Foster, ”, Andy Sparks, Olivier d'Assier, Peter Crane, MSCI's Sparks, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, White, REUTERS, Senate, Republicans, Aegon Asset Management, AAA, Government, Office, The, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Moody’s Investors Service, Applied Research, Crane, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, Washington, APAC, Qontigo

☆ The Senate just passed the debt ceiling bill. Here’s what happens next
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Since the debt ceiling was breached in mid-January, the Treasury Department has not been able to borrow more money. What happens once the debt ceiling is raisedBy law, the Treasury Department is obligated to make any funds that were affected by the extraordinary measures whole. Unlike Treasury bill auctions that occur on a weekly and monthly basis, cash management bill auctions are irregular, though not uncommon. Over the past 25 years, the Treasury held six one-day cash management bill auctions. In turn, investors may opt to buy more Treasury bills instead of stocks, potentially sucking some liquidity out of the market.

Persons: Joe Biden, States ’, They’re, wasn’t, Biden Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Department of, Treasury, Treasury Department, Civil, Disability Fund, Postal Service, Congressional, CBO Locations: New York, States, United States

☆ Fitch warns it could still downgrade America’s credit rating despite debt ceiling resolution
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —Fitch Ratings is keeping the United States on watch for a potential credit rating downgrade even after Congress passed a last-minute bill to avert a disastrous default. Although the resolution to the debt ceiling fight is a “positive,” Fitch expressed deep concern about the recurring brinksmanship and worsening polarization in Washington. That reasoning is similar to the rationale behind the downgrade by S&P in 2011 – an unprecedented step that occurred after Congress agreed to raise the debt ceiling. The latest debt ceiling battle has prompted more calls for reform or even eliminating the debt ceiling. This isn’t the first time the credit ratings firm has sounded the alarm about the messy state of affairs in America.

Persons: New York CNN — Fitch, Fitch, ” Fitch, “ Fitch, Richard Francis, Francis, Joe Biden, Chris Krueger, ” Krueger, “, James McCormack, Fitch’s, ” McCormack Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Fitch, AAA, House Republicans, Congressional, Cowen’s Washington Research Group, Security, Medicaid, Fed, Treasury Locations: New York, United States, Washington, America

☆ Desperate for cash, the Treasury will sell one-day bills
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Cash management bills mature in a relatively short time frame, ranging from a few days to a year, according to the Treasury. Unlike Treasury bill auctions that occur on a weekly and monthly basis, cash management bill auctions are irregular, though not uncommon. Over the past 25 years, the Treasury held six one-day cash management bill auctions. Yields on cash management bills, which are determined by the auction process, tend to be higher than regular fixed maturity bills. On Thursday, the Treasury auctioned $25 billion of three-day cash management bills yielding 6.15%.

Persons: Treasury hasn’t, Janet Yellen, Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Biden, Cash, They’re, ”, Charlie Ripley Organizations: CNN, Treasury Department, Treasury, Senate, Allianz Investment Management

☆ The debt ceiling drama may feel like it’s over, but it may have only just begun
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

There could be an even more dramatic second act to the debt ceiling drama. This time around, one of the top credit rating agencies, Fitch, has already placed US debt on rating watch negative. As of Wednesday, the other two major sovereign debt credit rating agencies, S&P and Moody’s, have not placed US debt under review. If Fitch downgrades US debt, it could cause yields on Treasury notes to spike, underscoring the increased risks associated with holding US debt. However, the opposite occurred after S&P downgraded US debt in 2011 — investors shrugged it off and bought more bonds, sending yields lower.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Biden, It’s, Fitch, McCarthy, Chip Somodevilla, Michael Reynolds, ”, George Catrambone Organizations: New, New York CNN, Senate, AAA, US Treasury, U.S . Department of Treasury, Treasury Department, DWS, Treasury Locations: New York, States, US, Washington ,, Americas

☆ US sanctions Chinese and Mexican firms over fentanyl making equipment
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

“Counterfeit pills laced with fentanyl constitute a leading cause of these deaths, devastating thousands of American families each year,” he said. Officials also accused Chinese company Yason General Machinery of working with a Mexican supplier and contact who previously provided pill equipment to a person linked to the Sinaloa Cartel. That individual used the machines to create superlabs in Mexico with the capacity to produce millions of fentanyl-laced pills weekly, Treasury said. The Chinese Embassy in the United States condemned the US move late Tuesday. “The US sanctions against Chinese companies and citizens will add more obstacles to China-US counter-narcotics cooperation,” it added.

Persons: “, Brian Nelson, ”, Biden Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, United, US Treasury Department, Treasury, Terrorism, Financial, Foreign Assets Control, Youli Technology, Machinery, Solutions, Embassy, US Centers for Disease Control Locations: Hong Kong, United States, China, Mexico, Mexican, Sinaloa

The latest surge of dark fleet ships began after Russia invaded Ukraine and the West tried to limit Moscow’s oil revenue with sanctions. The ships most likely sell their Russian oil to China above a price limit set by the sanctions. “The price cap is achieving its dual goals: restricting Russia’s oil revenues while keeping Russian oil flowing, and markets stable and well-supplied,” a U.S. Treasury spokesperson told The Times. The spoofing tankers using American insurance show that the practice is not limited to Russian oil alone. The company, Gatik Ship Management, owns a fleet of 50 newly acquired tankers dedicated to the Russian oil trade, the report said.

Persons: ”, David Tannenbaum, it’s, Samir Madani, Daniel Tadros, Russia Lady Ella, Russia Snow, Price, Konstantin Zavrazhin, Tannenbaum, Mr, Tadros, what’s, Min Chao Choy Organizations: Cathay, Labs, Copernicus Sentinel, Maxar Technologies, The New York Times, The Times, U.S . Treasury, Times, American Club, Club’s, Alma, Cargo, Russia Cathay Phoenix, Hong, International Maritime Organization, American, ”, AIS, telltale, Treasury’s, Foreign, Control, Maritime, C4ADS, Gatik Ship Management Locations: Japan, Kozmino, China, U.S, Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Ukraine, ”, Hong Kong, Niigata, Russia Ginza, Varna, Bulgaria, Taman, Niigata Port, Siberia, Cathay Phoenix, O.F.A.C, South Korea, Washington, Ginza, Oman, India

☆ Credit ratings agencies like Moody's decide the US credit rating. Here's what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Credit rating agencies are once again in the spotlight amid the ongoing high-stakes debt ceiling negotiations in Washington. What is the purpose of credit rating agencies? Put simply, credit rating agencies provide their opinions and issue a score evaluating the likelihood that a borrower will repay its debt. Rating agencies first rose to prominence over a century ago, but today, the three major agencies dominate the market. Bonsall has studied the effectiveness of credit rating agencies and their possible conflicts of interest.

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