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The amorphous lag explains the cat-and-mouse game between the Fed and markets that has played out since the central bank began its tightening cycle last year. For their part, markets have long expected the Fed to quickly pivot to a pretty aggressive series of rate cuts, largely to counter the accumulated lag effects of the tightening cycle. Taken at its most literal level, the 500 basis points of tightening since March 2022 - 17 months ago - have still not registered at all. There is a growing body of opinion that the lags have shortened considerably since Friedman shared his 'long and variable' theory. Reuters ImageData on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.0% in June, down from 4.0% in May.
Persons: Keen, Milton Friedman, Friedman, Christopher Waller, Phil Suttle, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Fed, Kansas City Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S
Washington, DC CNN —Silicon Valley Bank failed because regulators were far too slow to take action, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said Monday in her first extended remarks about the collapse. SVB operated in Daly’s district before the regional bank’s stunningly rapid failure in March, but she noted she doesn’t have a supervising role. Daly said the supervisors at the San Francisco Fed simply report issues to the Fed’s Board of Governors, which is ultimately responsible for fixing any regulatory issues. “My job is to support the supervision that the vice chair of supervision has set out, so how do I do that? The possibility of a rate hike in September remains unclear, though Powell said he wouldn’t take consecutive rate hikes off the table.
Persons: Mary Daly, SVB, ” Daly, Michael Barr, Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Daly, Jerome Powell, Warren, , Barr, it’s, It’s, Powell, Loretta Mester, Mester, , Raphael Bostic, ” Bostic, ” — CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: DC CNN, Valley Bank, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Brookings Institution, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Democratic, San Francisco Fed, Fed’s, of Governors, Fed, San Francisco, Cleveland Fed, University of California, Atlanta Fed, trickling, Cobb County Chamber of Commerce Locations: Washington, Daly’s district, Washington ,, San Francisco Fed, San Diego, Cobb County, Atlanta
Carvajal is one of three recent Make It interviewees who earns less than $30,000 while living in a coastal city. Tiara Simmons, a 39-year-old law clerk living in Long Beach, California, pulls in $26,000 a year between her salary and a social media marketing side hustle. Hoping to reinvest in his business, Carvajal pays himself a salary of just $25,000 and lives as minimally as possible. As for his business, Carvajal hopes to put Dominican-based coffee growers back on the map while steadily expanding his business. Tiara Simmons at The Pike, a shopping and amusement complex in Long Beach, Calif., she enjoys visiting with her family.
Persons: Hector Carvajal, Don Carvajal, Carvajal, Chi Baik, Tiara Simmons, Simmons, Don Carvajal Café, Mickey Todiwala, Don Carvajal's, Baik, John Paget, Covid, she'd, he's, Baik isn't, I'm, Long Beach , California Simmons, Tristan Pelletier Organizations: University of Washington, CNBC, University of Rochester, Foods, U.S, Washington , D.C Locations: New York City, Dominican Republic, Chi, Seattle, Long Beach , California, Bronx, New York, Dominican, Long Island City, Washington, Washington ,, chihuahua, The Pike, Long Beach, Calif
June 23 (Reuters) - More than 3,000 workers at over 150 Starbucks (SBUX.O) stores in the United States will go on strike next week, the union representing the coffee chain's baristas said on Friday, following claims that the company had banned Pride Month decorations at its cafes. The strikes were also aimed at protesting against employees' treatment at Starbucks and pushing for a fair labor contract covering better pay and benefits, the Starbucks Workers United union added. The call for a strike comes days after the union said Starbucks had taken down some Pride Month decorations and flags at several stores, a matter that was also discussed by some workers on social media. Starbucks Workers United said on Friday the company's Seattle Roastery - located just nine blocks from Starbucks' first ever store at the Pike Place Market - was kicking off the nationwide strike, dubbed "Strike with Pride". Pride Month celebrations, with Pride Parades set to take place on Sunday in several major cities including New York, San Francisco, Seattle and Chicago.
Persons: baristas, Busch, Bud, Deborah Sophia, Shinjini Ganguli, Anil D'Silva Organizations: Starbucks, Starbucks Workers United, ., Pride, U.S, Target, Anheuser, Starbucks Workers, Seattle, Thomson Locations: United States, Pike, New York, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago, Bengaluru
June 23 (Reuters) - More than 150 Starbucks (SBUX.O) stores and 3,500 workers will be on strike next week across the United States, the union representing the coffee chain's baristas said on Friday, after it claimed the company had banned Pride month decorations at its cafes. loadingStarbucks Workers United union said earlier this month the company took down Pride Month decorations and flags at several stores, while some workers took to social media to report the same. It said last week there had been "no change to any policy on this matter" and that it was still encouraging store managers to celebrate Pride month. U.S. companies have faced growing criticism over Pride Month celebrations. Starbucks Workers United said on Friday in a tweet the company's Seattle Roastery - located just nine blocks from Starbucks' first ever store at the Pike Place Market - was leading the nationwide strike.
Persons: baristas, Deborah Sophia, Shinjini Organizations: Workers United, Starbucks, Target, Starbucks Workers, Seattle, ., Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, Pike, Bengaluru
Washington, DC CNN —Americans are feeling upbeat about inflation and the economy, according to the University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey released Friday. Consumers’ inflation expectations for the year ahead retreated for the second straight month, declining to 3.3% early this month from 4.2% in May. That’s good news for the Federal Reserve, which closely watches sentiment surveys to gauge the expectations consumers and businesses have for price hikes. “The sharp drop of short-term consumer inflation expectations points to another slowdown in the June CPI report, which will be out before the Fed’s next decision,” wrote Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an analyst note. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his news conference this week that inflation expectations remain in check.
Persons: , Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, That’s, Christopher Waller Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan’s, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Norway
Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe market has long been pricing in interest rate cuts from major central banks toward the end of 2023, but sticky core inflation, tight labor markets and a surprisingly resilient global economy are leading some economists to reassess. Economic resilience and persistent labor market tightness could exert upward pressure on wages and inflation, which is in danger of becoming entrenched. The Bank of England The U.K. faces a much tougher inflation challenge than the U.S. and the euro zone, and the U.K. consumer price inflation rate fell by less than expected in April. Meanwhile core inflation jumped to 6.8% from 6.2% in March, which will be of greater concern to the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. Risk management considerations will, we think, force the MPC to push rates higher and further than previously intended."
The writers want to also fix the formula for residual payments, which have been upended by streaming. Years ago, writers could receive residual payments whenever a show was licensed — into syndication or through DVD sales. But writers are often paid less to work in minirooms, W.G.A. Writers have also said that the sudden growth of minirooms has also disrupted the decades-long art of learning how to make a television show. “This is stuff that you have to experience.”But because of minirooms, writers are sent home after as little as 10 weeks, and frequently are not around for the production process at all, he said.
Amodei chatted with Insider about her approach to trust and safety and what the future holds for AI. However, the majority of Anthropic cofounder and president Daniela Amodei's career has been spent trying to prove the opposite: that trust and safety is a feature, not a bug. "It's an organizational structure question, but it's also a mindset question," she told Insider. In 2020, Amodei and six other OpenAI employees, including her brother Dario Amodei, left the company to start rival AI lab Anthropic. Throughout Anthropic's growth, the company has kept an interdisciplinary culture, with employees whose experiences range from physics to computational biology to policywriting, Amodei told Insider.
LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - If a mega Western recession is coming down the pike in the second half of this year, someone should point it out to the junk bond market. The investment herd seems more convinced than ever that recession is on the way amid tightening bank credit after the March bank stress - even if not all the incoming evidence supports that take. More than a third now see the biggest risk ahead as a bank credit crunch and global recession. And that's with junk spreads more than three times higher than quality corporates. U.S. and European junk bond spreads historicallyBank of America survey on investment grade bonds vs junkCOURAGE AND DECOMPRESSIONThere's little doubt than many investors want to steer well clear, for now at least.
Ron DeSantis acknowledged Disney had "tried to pull a fast one" over control in Florida. Ron DeSantis of Florida has pledged he isn't done with trying to control Walt Disney World. He pledged that the company, which had benefitted from a special carve-out for decades, would eventually pay its debts and taxes. DeSantis said the legislature would void Disney's actions and also consider taxes on hotels, new tolls, and developing properties. Ron DeSantis made at Hillsdale College.
Ron DeSantis acknowledged Disney had "tried to pull a fast one" over control in Florida. Ron DeSantis of Florida has pledged he isn't done with trying to control Walt Disney World. DeSantis didn't say what would come next in his battle with the family-favorite company, a feud that first began in early 2022. First DeSantis signed a bill into law in April 2022 to dissolve the Reedy Creek district that oversees Disney. On his book tour stops, DeSantis frequently boasts about taking on Disney over the Parental Rights bill, which he said was necessary to protect children.
Morning Bid: Central banks try to see through stress
  + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanEven with a nod to greater banking stress, the major central banks all seem determined to tighten the monetary screw another notch. With Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's pushback against suggestions of a blanket insurance of all U.S. banking deposits unnerving investors again after the Fed decision, few believe the financial stress has fully dissipated. Even though stock markets swooned after the Yellen comments on Wednesday, S&P500 futures were back up smartly ahead of Thursday's open. European bourses and banking stocks were only a touch lower in the face of the latest European rate rises. The dollar hit its lowest since early February but regained its footing ahead of the U.S. open and BoE decision.
Stephanie Pomboy expects US stocks to plunge 30% and a broad economic downturn to take hold. Consumers, businesses, and real estate developers are being hit by soaring interest rates, she said. The stock market could plunge 30%, and the current pressure on banks could spread to commercial real estate, corporate credit, municipal bonds, and other markets, Pomboy said. The upshot is that consumers are struggling to afford their car loans and credit cards, and many companies and real estate developers are feeling the squeeze, she continued. Here's what he said about the outlook for stocks and house prices, and the threat of a recession.
Even though reading anything with certainty from such volatile prices is difficult right now, the runes of the bond market suggest unfolding banking stress will suppress inflation anyway - regardless of further central bank action. "That would be very much in line with what the central banks want." U.S. equivalents were steadier about 2.5%, but five-year "breakeven" inflation rates from the index-linked market fell to 2.3%. To be fair to central bank policymakers, their own early warning systems - such as the ECB's Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress - don't yet show any more pressure on the system than they did during last year's tightening. Armed with Thursday's trial run from the ECB, the Fed and BoE will now have to make that judgment next week.
London CNN —After months of soaring stock prices, Europe’s defense companies hardly needed another boost. But a tentative €2 billion ($2.1 billion) European Union plan to procure ammunition for war-torn Ukraine may provide just that. Speaking in Stockholm Wednesday, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said his country needed one million rounds of ammunition “as soon as possible” to deter Russian forces. A final decision is expected on March 20 when EU foreign and defense ministers meet in Brussels. In early February, the bloc announced that it would inject another €545 million ($575 million) into its €3.6 billion ($3.8 billion) military assistance fund for Ukraine.
The “2030 Agenda does not include any laws or legal instruments including on polluted lands or smart cities. Nonetheless, a Twitter user posted, “FOOD FOR THOUGHT- the laws governing Agenda 2030 land development allow governments to seize polluted land and move their residents into smart cities. Reuters, however, found no mention of smart cities or of governments having the authority to seize polluted lands in the Agenda 2030 document (here). Reuters has previously fact-checked claims that Agenda 2030 is evidence the COVID-19 pandemic was planned (here). Agenda 2030 contains no laws, and nothing in the document permits governments to seize polluted lands and move residents into smart cities.
The resignations, in exchange for severance packages, were offered the same day Dotdash Meredith laid off 7% of staff. In January, Dotdash Meredith cut 7% of its headcount during a difficult squeeze for the media industry, as ad spending has tumbled amid an uncertain economy. Dan Wakeford, a 7-year veteran of the publication who had served as editor-in-chief since 2019, departed last year after the formation of Dotdash Meredith under IAC. Severance pay will be paid in installments on the regular biweekly payroll schedule. KandisDo you work at People magazine or Dotdash Meredith and have insight to share?
"I'm not rolling in the dough right now and I probably will never be," Simmons tells CNBC Make It. "I don't spend a lot of money, if any, out of pocket on my wheelchair," Simmons says. 'It opened up the world for me, using my wheelchair'A New York native, Simmons wasn't born with her disability. Moving forwardThough the settlement money allowed Simmons to de-prioritize finding a job, she always wanted to work. Simmons had just begun applying to law schools when she found out her settlement money was gone.
Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs - often a market mover with its big macro calls - is a good example. Last month's Bank of America survey of fund managers around the world still had net 68% expecting recession this year. Rates markets reared up to price Fed rates back above 5% and now expect them higher at yearend than they are today. And yet market volatility gauges have stayed peculiarly serene. Bond market volatility (.MOVE) remains well above its 20-year mean - but it has retreated sharply to two-thirds of last year's peaks.
Adrian Grenier, star of HBO's hit series "Entourage," now lives at Kintsugi, a ranch outside Austin. He's taking viewers into his sustainable lifestyle with a new production company, Earth Speed Media. "Entourage" star Adrian Grenier went from La La Land — to working the land. Named Kintsugi, a Japanese word for a traditional art of repairing pottery, the ranch is a far cry from life in Hollywood. To coincide with Earth Speed Media's launch, the company shared the deck that helped it raise more than $150,000 in pre-seed funding last year.
LONDON — European markets are set for a cautious open on Wednesday as investors look ahead to the various economic headwinds coming down the pike in 2023. Britain's FTSE 100 was closed for a public holiday on Tuesday and is set to reopen Wednesday. With three trading days left for the year, global stock markets have suffered a dismal 2022 as governments and central banks grappled with sky-high inflation arising from the fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine and persistent Covid-19 restrictions in China. Shares in Asia-Pacific mostly fell overnight after further losses on Wall Street Tuesday, with U.S. stock markets on track for their worst year since 2008. Stock futures stateside inched fractionally higher in early premarket trade on Wednesday.
A GOP Congressman in Georgia may have broken the state's voting law by casting ballots in the wrong county. Rep. Drew Ferguson voted in the county where he used to live during the 2022 election cycle. Ferguson has been an advocate against voter fraud since the 2020 election and backed Trump's election lies. "Congressman Ferguson resolved the issue, and proceeded to vote in Troup County for the primary, general, and run-off elections." "Congressman Ferguson is currently in the process of transitioning his residency to his new home in Pike County," the spokesman added.
LONDON — European markets are set to nudge higher on Friday, tracking global sentiment as investors hope for a Chinese economic recovery as Covid-19 curbs are relaxed. After a relatively muted week for European stock markets, a host of significant risk events are coming down the pike next week, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England's next monetary policy meetings. Shares in Asia-Pacific were higher overnight, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index leading gains, as Chinese November inflation data came in roughly in line with expectations. In remarks published by state media on Thursday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the country's easing of Covid policy would allow the economy to gather momentum. U.S. stock futures were modestly higher in early premarket trade on Friday as traders look ahead to fresh wholesale inflation data due later in the day.
An Ohio man accused of helping his family plan, carry out and cover up the killing of eight members of another family was found guilty of murder Wednesday. Both Wagner brothers as well as their parents, Angela Wagner and George “Billy” Wagner III, were charged in the killings. Angela Wagner pleaded guilty to a role in helping to plan the killings in exchange for a 30-year sentence. Edward "Jake" Wagner speaks to an attorney at the Pike County Courthouse in Waverly, Ohio, on Nov. 27, 2018. Jake Wagner said his brother froze and did not fire, leading Jake to kill the man himself, according to WLWT.
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