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The company's innovation pipeline provide long-term growth potential, with the earnings event likely serving as a catalyst for further upside. With expected EPS growth of 14% and revenue growth of 11%, Adobe maintain its leadership in the software industry. To capitalize on the potential for an earnings-driven rally, we suggest using a "broken wing butterfly," which offers a high reward-to-risk ratio. Specifically, I suggest the ADBE Sep 20, 2024 $585/630/650 Call butterfly at $10.96 Debit. This strategy entails: • Buying the Sep 20 $585 Calls @ $18.80 • Selling the Sep 20 $630 Calls (2 contracts) @ $5.53 • Buying the Sep 20 $650 Calls @ $3.22 This butterfly strategy offers a maximum reward of $3,404 per contract while limiting risk to only $1,096 per contract.
Organizations: Adobe, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Then on July 11, things really got started as June CPI came in below expectations and the outlook for the first Fed rate cut became significantly more likely. Let's drill down into the sectors that makeup the Russell 2000 to see who's leading and lagging since that July 5th turning point. Let's find out who is actually profitable and could maintain the rally after the initial shine of a fresh rate cut wears off. Where to look in small caps A big component of the Russell 2000 based on market capitalization representation is health care at 18.7%. Should the Fed strike a dovish tone after the first rate cut I will be shopping for quality names.
Persons: Russell, Piper Sandler, Hamilton Lane, Jefferies, JEF, Todd Gordon, Gordon, ARES Organizations: Nasdaq, Inside Edge, CNBC PRO, Ares Management, Fed, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: financials
Moreover, shortly after Apple introduced the iPhone 16 , Chinese smartphone manufacturer Huawei launched its tri-fold phone, the Mate XT. This device garnered significant attention, securing more than 2 million pre-orders within just a few hours of its release. The trade The trade structure I'm employing is known as a "bear put spread." THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Tim Cook, AAPL, Nishant Pant Organizations: Apple, Huawei, AAPL, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: AAPL
It was a stunning denouement for the self-proclaimed appointed son of God, a Filipino evangelist preacher who had millions of followers and influence at the highest levels of government but was wanted by Philippine authorities and the FBI on charges of human trafficking and sexual abuse. That changed in March, when a Philippine court ordered the arrest of Quiboloy and several other people on suspicion of child and sexual abuse and human trafficking. After he surrendered, officials said, Quiboloy was flown by military transport to Manila, the capital, and placed in police detention. After he won the presidency in 2022, Marcos set about dismantling Duterte’s power alliances, including the one with Quiboloy. Marcos said that he did not understand Duterte’s apology but that it was “her prerogative” to make it, local media reported.
Persons: God, Apollo Quiboloy, Rodrigo Duterte, Duterte’s, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Marcos, Quiboloy, ” Marcos, of Jesus Christ, , , Jean Fajardo, ” Sen, Risa Hontiveros, Benhur Abalos, Duterte, Ted Aljibe, colluding, Sara Duterte, Christ Organizations: Philippine, FBI, Philippine Department of Justice, U.S . Treasury Department, Police, Philippine Senate, Getty, U.S Locations: Philippine, Davao, U.S, of Jesus, Philippines, Torreon, Davao City, of, Manila, AFP, Hawaii
How to trade Adobe's upcoming earnings using options
  + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
I'll break down various option trade scenarios into the earnings, focusing on one that will benefit from a big move in any direction. Adobe's Creative Cloud subscription model generates recurring revenue and maintains a solid customer base, from freelancers to large enterprises. Adobe's Document Cloud, featuring Acrobat and PDF solutions, is critical in digital document management and e-signatures. Of course, any bears out there could also use a calendar to bet on a downside move, using a $500 Sep/Jan put calendar. Combining the call and put calendar is a trade I usually refer to as a strangle swap.
Persons: Adobe Sensei, Jan, I've Organizations: Adobe, Labor, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech gave the stock market a jolt higher, reaffirming expectations for interest rate cuts going forward. Still, I believe the Fed will remain data dependent, which should temper euphoria and keep the S & P 500 in its 2024 range. I want to embrace this range and position accordingly for U.S. equites to again cool off going into September. Volatility has been the overarching theme for August, and I believe the recent uber-sensitivity to macro data will keep markets extraordinarily spastic. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, equites, Powell Organizations: Nvidia, Fed, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Stocks have made a nice comeback after testing support last week in the wake of a violent summer swoon tied to the yen carry trade. I run four equity portfolios at Inside Edge Capital, the most actively managed is appropriately named "Active Opps." In this article I'll cover the technical formation of the resistance zone as well as the option hedge we're using. If this is an ill-fated rally, or a so-called bear market rally, my bet is it will fail around this zone. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Nvidia's, Todd Gordon Organizations: Edge, Nasdaq, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares are getting wrecked after its CEO Brian Niccol left to try and turn around Starbucks. With a positive outlook on CMG, I see this pre-market drop as an opportunity to invest in a company that seems almost recession-proof. The trade To initiate a bullish position on CMG, I plan to use a strategy known as a "bull call spread." This trade was written assuming Chipotle was trading around $51 a share. If CMG trades at or above the short strike by the expiration date, this trade could yield a return of 100% on the amount risked.
Persons: Brian Niccol, let's, Chipotle Organizations: Grill, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Chipotle
Deere (DE) , headquartered in Moline, Illinois, manufactures agricultural machinery, heavy equipment, forestry machinery, diesel engines, and related components. One of the oldest companies in the United States, Deere traces its history back to John Deere's "self-scouring plow" in 1837. However, even assuming 50 bushels per acre and a $5/bushel average price increase, the revenue per acre would have risen by ~$250/acre. However, while Deere & Company stock has underperformed the S & P this year, its enterprise value is nearly $100 Billion, almost double the company's valuation in January 2020, just before the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, DE options are pricing in a larger-than-average 6% move when the company reports earnings on Thursday.
Persons: John Deere's, John Deere, outperforming, Massey Ferguson Organizations: Deere, Caterpillar, Deere & Company, Nasdaq, Farmers, CNH Industry, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, ~$, ~ $ $ Locations: Moline , Illinois, United States, Mexico, Holland
S & P down 5.50% here, headlines of a Nikkei crash, and another great Yen carry unwind happening. I traded for a hedge fund and served as senior technical analyst for an foreign exchange company during the great financial crisis of 2008 that saw a severe yen carry unwind. If the line is headed south the dollar is weakening relative to the yen, and the yen is strengthening relative to the dollar. I believe that the July 11th CPI print that came 0.1% below expectations was the culprit to this whole yen carry unwind. Could this yen carry unwind move further?
Persons: it's, Todd Gordon Organizations: Nikkei, Markets, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: DVN, Katie Stockton Organizations: Devon Energy, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: Devon
The massive resurgence in volatility (as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index - VIX ) has revealed market vulnerability coupled with significant uncertainty. With the VIX hitting a multi-year high of 65 this week, elevated options premiums offer higher risk/reward scenarios. .VIX YTD mountain Cboe Volatility Index, YTD The VIX, also known as Wall Street's "fear gauge", vaulted above 60 earlier this week, the highest since pandemic induced volatility back in March 2020. In the event you disagree with my bullish view, feel free to take the other side of this trade. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Lehman Organizations: Lehman Brothers, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
We saw another EMA crossover in May, signaling the end of the pullback and the start of a new bull run. July 2023 : Although the majority of the current correction unfolded in August, the EMA crossover signal had already appeared in July. For example, in May 2023, waiting for the EMA crossover would have meant missing out on 4.6% of the move. The trade setup: QQQ bull call spread To take a bullish trade on QQQ, I will be using a trade structure called a "bull call spread." For example, if QQQ is trading at $440 at the time of the EMA crossover, one could consider buying a 440-441 call spread.
Persons: bullish, Nishant Pant Organizations: Nasdaq, Corrections, Trust, EMA, ITM, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: QQQ
Prepare for a new high-volatility market regime
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Katie Stockton | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
A spike in the VIX of this magnitude has not occurred since 2020, when the COVID-19 related decline in the S & P 500 was maturing. We believe another high-volatility regime is upon us, with the prolonged low-volatility regime that preceded it coming to an abrupt halt. If our long-term trend following measures were to deteriorate behind the S & P 500, we would be more inclined to reduce exposure. A rebound in the S & P 500 (i.e., a VIX pullback) can be used to hedge partial exposure from a top-down perspective. Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only.
Persons: It's, Katie Stockton Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities
The S & P 500 5,350 puts I discussed are trading nearly $170 as I write this, up ~ $12,000 per contract. This is even though the S & P 500 is down only 2.3% since I wrote that article over a month ago. One could roll those options down and out to the September 5200/4500 S & P 500 put spread which costs about $100. If you didn't read the earlier article, here are the components of a long put spread, sometimes referred to as a "Bear Put Spread." In periods of high implied volatility, option premiums are generally higher because the market anticipates larger price movements.
Persons: It's, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, it's, Trump Organizations: Starbucks, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, ~ $, & $ $
I want to embrace this turbulence and use options to create income and potentially get long the broader market at lower levels. Risk happens fast, and investors have recently been conditioned that markets only go up with the impressive rally grinding higher since last November in the S & P 500. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year The highly liquid ETF that tracks the S & P 500, the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , was up nearly 35% (mid-July) from last November. This move forced many bears on Wall Street to capitulate and many malleable analysts to quickly reconfigure their end of year S & P 500 targets substantially higher. The trade With the S & P now down 5% from mid-July recent highs, I look at this acute move lower as a buying opportunity.
Persons: Warren Buffett Organizations: Trust, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
After reaching a peak around $320 in July 2023, META spent four solid months bouncing between price support around $280 and retesting the July peak. With this week's earnings beat, we'll likely see META test the upper end of this new trading range. Here we can see the recent trading range in much better context, but we can also see weakening momentum conditions. The declining momentum on the weekly chart suggests a serious headwind to META's attempt to break out of its recent trading range. The 2023 range was finally eclipsed once we saw an upside break above a clearly defined resistance level.
Persons: we'll, David Keller Organizations: Meta, CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Over the past couple of weeks, energy stocks have outperformed as investors have moved away from technology, consumer discretionary and, well, everything else. I'll breaking down my market view and then describe a possible trade on a big energy stock into earnings. Several energy companies, including the three largest US-based integrated oil companies, report earnings this week. Exxon is up slightly this week as oil inches higher on Middle East tensions. XOM YTD mountain Exxon, year-to-date Crude prices and energy stocks are, technically, mixed bags.
Persons: I've, Brent, that's Organizations: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Exxon, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
The Real Estate Select Sector ETF (XLRE) is the worst performing sector ETF in 2024, up about 3.5% right now. The ETF is net-flat going all the way back to September '22. But, it has been the best sector ETF in July, with a monthly gain of nearly 8%. The answer is a resounding yes… if the breakout in the SPDR S & P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) to new highs is any indication. And if rates are going to keep declining, then XLRE will have a strong tailwind to potentially catch up to XHB once again.
Persons: XLRE hasn't, XLRE, XHB, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
As oil rebounds following oversold conditions, it provides an opportunity for buyers to step in, especially with the potential for geopolitical tensions to rise. And one energy stock that looks set up to potentially break out is Phillips 66 (PSX) after largely trading in a range since February. However, it is now just starting to break out from that trading range and starts to target the $170 highs as upside targets. With a higher debt to equity ratio, PSX has a higher implied leverage than its peers, which provides a higher upside potential if oil prices recover from its recent pullback. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Phillips, PSX Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
To start let's examine the 200-day moving average on the daily chart below shown as a dashed blue line. Looking back to the most recent correction in April, that was the support level of the price-to-moving average spread: 34%. We could be approaching a support level based on this analysis. This could occur by price continuing to move lower along with the moving average trending higher as the recent higher price readings factor into the average. The 50-day moving average of the daily volume totals is clearly in a decline since April.
Persons: Steve Eisman, Eisman, We're, Todd Gordon, Gordon, NVDA Organizations: CNBC, Nvidia, Jan, Edge, Inside Edge, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: NVDA
Using options to try to catch the bottom in CrowdStrike
  + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This drop in such a short period seems overly exaggerated, and I'm on the lookout for signs of a bounce to initiate a bullish trade on CRWD. DMI (Directional Movement Index): The DMI is composed of three lines: DI+ (green line), DI- (red line), and ADX (blue line). When the DI- (red line) is above the DI+ (green line), it indicates a downtrend. Note that both DI- and DI+ are changing direction, which provides the first indication of a possible trend change. The Trade To take a bullish trade on CRWD, I'm using a trade structure called a "bull call spread."
Organizations: Microsoft, Apple, Nasdaq, RSI, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: CRWD
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: drugmaker, VTRS, Katie Stockton Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities
It reports earnings this week and traders are expecting a monster move. Customers can browse a large inventory of used vehicles on Carvana's website, complete with detailed photos, 360-degree views, and vehicle history reports. Their model eliminates most of the negative associations of used car dealers by offering convenience, transparency, and a hassle-free car buying experience without the used car salesman. The company's stock fell more than 80% from February 2020 in the pandemic plunge before rallying 1600% on record used car margins caused by supply constraints due to pandemic shutdowns. CVNA YTD mountain Carvana (YTD) Carvana will report earnings this coming Wednesday after the bell and the 18% earnings-related implied move ranks near the top of the Russell 1000 companies regarding earnings volatility.
Persons: Carvana, Russell, I'm Organizations: Carvana, Machines, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
The Nasdaq-100 has seen significant profit taking as many investors have trimmed their exposure to the Mag 7. Volatility and carnage in the Nasdaq should persist causing more sellers to sell tech stocks. Here is an options strategy to profit on this additional plunge in Tech. However, the move ran out of gas into the closing bell, and the QQQ finished back in the red. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Russell, Tesla Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Dow, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Tech
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