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☆ Welcome to the (almost) red-hot bond market
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Surging mortgage rates over the past few years have sent home loan applications and home sales down sharply. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was also advancing towards 8% — a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. Those raging Treasury yields brought pain to investors and also increased how much American companies had to pay to service their debts. In fact, Wall Street is struggling to figure out what it means for the timing and scale of future rate cuts.

Persons: ”, Michael Hartnett, Gina Bolvin, “ We’re, Phillip Wool, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Federal, Treasury, Dow, Bank of America, Bolvin Wealth Management, Mortgage News, Mortgage, Association, Financial, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Goldman, Fed, UBS, Airlines for America, AAA Locations: New York

Consumer prices held stable in October, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.2% from 3.7% a month ago as energy prices receded, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. “Further evidence of disinflation inside the October inflation report,” RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas posted on social media, noting that month-over-month inflation was flat at 3.2% and core inflation was up 0.2 percent to 4% over the same period. Although prices for a wide variety of goods and services have cooled this year, the current inflation rate is well above the 2% target set by the central bank. “Inflation expectations over the next 5 years dipped to 2.7%, slightly above the Fed’s long-run target of 2%. “We don’t think the last mile of disinflation will be particularly hard,” Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in the outlook.

Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Stocks, Matt Bush, Patrick De Haan, “, ”, Piyush Patel, Jeffrey Roach, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: of Labor Statistics, RSM, Federal, Treasury, Dow Industrial, Guggenheim Partners, CNBC, National Retail Foundation, NRF, Affinity Solutions, Wall Street, Travel, Gas, New York Federal Reserve Bank, University of Michigan’s, LPL, Investment, ” Goldman Locations: U.S

☆ New York Fed inflation expectations remain steady amid slowing earnings growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew York Fed inflation expectations remain steady amid slowing earnings growthCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the latest news from the New York Federal Reserve.

Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: New, New York Federal Reserve

ICBC's U.S. unit told market participants on Friday it was hoping to finish the cyber review over the weekend, but the sources said they expected it would spill into next week. The cyberattack sent ripples through the U.S. Treasuries market, where ICBC acts as a broker for hedge funds and other market participants, helping them trade in the securities. The Chinese parent then injected capital into the U.S. unit, allowing it to settle the trades and pay back BNY Mellon, the sources said. They also told market participants about the capital injection but did not disclose the amount or the reason for it, the sources said. SIFMA, the trade group, organized calls for market participants with updates, the sources said.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, BNY Mellon, ransomware, ICBC, SIFMA, Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Scott Skyrm, Jack McIntyre, Harry Robertson, James Pearson, Naomi Rovinick, Yoruk, Davide Barbuscia, Chris Prentice, Mike Derby, Carolina Mandl, Laura Matthews, Paritosh, Zeba, Megan Davies, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alexander Smith, Richard Chang, Anna Driver Organizations: Asset Management, Fair for Trade, Services, REUTERS, Commercial Bank of China, U.S ., ICBC Financial Services, Securities Industry, Financial Markets Association, ICBC, Treasury, China, U.S, New York Federal Reserve, Securities, Depository Trust, Clearing Corp, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, ICBC's U.S, U.S, San Francisco, Treasuries, Hong Kong, Shanghai, London, Amsterdam, Carolina, New York

☆ NY Fed: US Q3 credit card debt up on strong economy, as credit woes tick higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A credit card is used on a payment terminal at a shop near Nantes, France, in this illustration picture taken November 6, 2023. The New York Fed report found credit issues are rising, albeit from low levels. The report said increases in credit card delinquency rates were most pronounced for thirtysomething borrowers. “The continued rise in credit card delinquency rates is broad-based across area income and region, but particularly pronounced among millennials and those with auto loans or student loans,” the economist noted. Line chart with data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show credit card and auto loans delinquencies for over 30 days.

Persons: Stephane Mahe, there's, Donghoon Lee, “, Daniel Silver, Morgan, Lisa Cook, Michael S, Andrea Ricci, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York Fed, New, Fed, The New York Fed, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York, Thomson Locations: Nantes, France, The, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New

☆ NY Fed: Household debt sees modest 1.3% increase in Q3
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNY Fed: Household debt sees modest 1.3% increase in Q3CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the latest news from the New York Federal Reserve.

Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: New York Federal Reserve

☆ More Americans are yanking money from their 401(k) plans to pay the bills
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The growing reliance on 401(k) plans as a source of urgent cash is further evidence of consumer financial stress heading into the 2024 election year. Despite high GDP and low unemployment, some Americans are clearly facing a cash crunch and struggling to pay the bills. Bank of America said the number of 401(k) participants taking hardship distributions increased by 27% from the first quarter of this year. Bank of America found 401(k) contribution rates were steady during the third quarter at 6.5%. Just under 3% of those age groups are cutting back on their retirement savings.

Persons: Lisa Margeson, America’s Margeson, “, Gen Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bank of America, Bank of, New York Federal, ” Bank, America’s Locations: New York

☆ Americans notched the biggest annual increase in credit card debt on record last quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

New York Fed economists said Tuesday US credit card balances grew $48 billion in the third quarter. AdvertisementAdvertisementEconomists at the New York Federal Reserve said Tuesday Americans' credit card balances grew by $48 billion in the third quarter, or about 4.7%, with the total amount reaching $1.08 trillion. Credit card debt hit $1 trillion for the first time ever this past summer. "But credit card delinquencies continue to rise from their historical lows seen during the pandemic and have now surpassed pre-pandemic levels." Close to 9.5% of credit card balances were more than 90 days delinquent last quarter, up from 8% in the second quarter and 7.6% during the third quarter of last year.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, New York Federal Reserve, New York Federal, New York Fed

☆ The Fed probably won't cut interest rates just yet — but its next move is expected to be good for Americans
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It's expected to pause interest rate hikes. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce its next interest rate decision, and a hike probably isn't in the cards. In September, the Fed paused interest rate hikes as it continued to receive promising data on the country's economic recovery. Powell has not indicated whether a interest rate cut will come this year to get consumers further relief. AdvertisementAdvertisementEven if interest rate cuts are not on the horizon anytime soon, administration officials are confident Americans will not face a recession as they enter 2024.

Persons: It's, —, Nick Bunker, Bunker, Jerome Powell, Powell, we've, Greg McBride, we're, McBride, Janet Yellen, Joelle Gamble, Gamble Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed, North America, New York Federal, Bloomberg, White, National Economic Council Locations: Israel, Ukraine

☆ The days of rising interest rates could soon be over
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

What’s happening: US Treasury rates are white hot — 10-year Treasury yields are near their highest levels since 2007. It also means more expensive mortgage rates. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasuries. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. US mortgage rates are at 23 year-highs, and home affordability is at its lowest level since 1984.

Persons: haven’t, Philip Jefferson, ” That’s, Lorie Logan, Raphael Bostic, ”, “, ” Bostic, Mary Daly, Bonds, What’s, Birkenstock, Elisabeth Buchwald, Megan Penick, Robinson, Rachel Ramirez, It’s, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Financial, CME, Treasury, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Consumer, Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, American Bankers Association, San Francisco Fed, Index, PPI, CPI, New York Stock Exchange, Renaissance, Nature Communications Locations: New York, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovenia

☆ Exclusive: Iraq to end all dollar cash withdrawals by Jan. 1, 2024, central-bank official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Timour Azhari | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But dollars deposited in 2024 could only be withdrawn in local currency at the official rate of 1,320. The parallel market rate of the Iraqi dinar sat at 1,560 on Thursday, roughly 15% percent below the official rate. Here you go, you can use the card inside Iraq at the official rate, or if you want to withdraw cash, you can at the official rate in dinars," Ahmed said. "But don't talk to me about cash dollars anymore." He added: "As long as all transparent and legal financing operations happen via us (at the official rate), the rest does not matter."

Persons: Mazen Ahmed, It's, Ahmed, Timour Azhari, William Maclean 私たち Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, CBI, Reuters Locations: BAGHDAD, Iraq, Iran, Iraqi, U.S, Syria, Tehran, Baghdad

☆ Bill Gates says America has a math problem. Here are his three suggestions to help kids learn to love the subject like he does.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Lakshmi Varanasi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Bill Gates wrote a blog post suggesting three ways to improve math education. AdvertisementAdvertisementHe believes that math skills are a "powerful indicator" of future success. Gates wrote. The new approach to math seems to be working at Chula Vista: Math proficiency rates have increased 18% over the past three years at the school, Gates wrote. College grads who land high-earning jobs often major in fields that require strong math skills.

Persons: Bill Gates, —, Gates, hasn't, Amilcar Fernandez —, Fernandez, Mr, there's, Melinda — Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Chula Vista Middle, Networks, School, Gates Foundation, Chula Vista —, College grads, New York Federal Reserve Locations: Chula, Southern California, Chula Vista

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. Traders have been on watch for weeks for a possible intervention by Japanese officials to combat a sustained depreciation in the yen. "It could just be people expecting intervention and then reacting to what they believed to be intervention," said Asher. To support the Japanese currency, authorities need to tap Japan's foreign reserves of dollars to sell for yen. A senior Japanese ministry of finance official declined to comment on whether Japan had intervened in foreign exchange markets.

Persons: Florence Lo, Michael Brown, Brown, Colin Asher, Asher, Niels Christensen, Jeremy Stretch, Edward Moya, Stretch, Tuesday's, Chuck Mikolajczak, Samuel Indyk, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Dhara Ranasinghe, Lucy Raitano, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Jonathan Oatis, Andrea Ricci, Hugh Lawson, Gareth Jones Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Trader, Mizuho, Nordea, Bank of Japan, New York Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, Ministry, Finance, Seven, Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, London, Copenhagen, Japan, U.S, Tokyo, Asia, New York, United States

[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The dollar fell as low as 147.30 yen versus the Japanese currency, after hitting a one-year high of 150.165. Tuesday's low in the dollar was its weakest level in three weeks versus the Japanese currency. The euro dropped to a roughly two-month low against the yen of 154.39 yen and was last down 0.7% to 155.99. That earlier drove the dollar higher as real interest rates factor in inflation.

Persons: Florence Lo, Shunichi Suzuki, Colin Asher, Sterling, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Herbert Lash, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Lucy Raitano, Joice Alves, Marguerita Choy, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Japan, Japanese Finance, New York Federal Reserve, Mizuho, Bannockburn Global, U.S . Labor, Labor, Survey, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Japan, London, Bannockburn, New York

[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The sharp move lower suggested the Bank of Japan had intervened in the market to keep the yen from falling further. "It has all the hallmarks of intervention in all honesty," said Michael Brown, market analyst at Trader X in London. "The continued uptrend in UST-JGB encouraged the 150 to be breach in the wake of the better-than-expected JOLTS data. The dollar slipped 0.51% against the yen to 149.08 after hitting 150.165 on the JOLTS report.

Persons: Florence Lo, Michael Brown, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Stretch, Shunichi Suzuki, Wei Liang Chang, Russia's rouble, Herbert Lash, Brigid Riley, Alun John, Joice Alves, Kevin Buckland, Marguerita Choy, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, New York Federal Reserve, Trader, Bannockburn Global, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Finance, DBS, Strong U.S, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss, Thomson Locations: London, Bannockburn, New York, United States, Europe, Tokyo

☆ Dollar weakens against the yen after yen breaches key 150 level
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Japanese yen has fallen about 25% year-to-date against the greenback. The sharp move lower suggested the Bank of Japan had intervened in the market to keep the yen from falling further. "The continued uptrend in UST-JGB encouraged the 150 to be breach in the wake of the better-than-expected JOLTS data. The dollar slipped 0.51% against the yen to 149.08 after hitting 150.165 on the JOLTS report. The dollar index, which tracks the unit against six peers, was up 0.13% at 107.16, at its highest since November.

Persons: Michael Brown, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Stretch, Shunichi Suzuki, Wei Liang Chang, Russia's rouble Organizations: greenback, The, Bank of Japan, New York Federal Reserve, Trader, Bannockburn Global, U.S, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Finance, DBS, Strong U.S, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss Locations: London, Bannockburn, New York, United States, Europe

☆ Higher gasoline prices lift US retail sales, trend slowing
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Retail sales rose 0.6% last month. Higher gasoline prices boosted producer prices in August, other data from the Labor Department showed on Thursday. Excluding gasoline stations, retail sales rose 0.2% last month. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, rose 0.3% after increasing 0.8% in July. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales edged up 0.1% in August.

Persons: Mike Blake, Christopher Rupkey, Goldman Sachs, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Reuters, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Labor Department, Treasury, delinquencies, New York Federal Reserve, Gross, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Carlsbad , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York

☆ Americans have never been wealthier
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Consumer wealth has now completely recovered from the recent inflation-driven drop in stock prices and real estate holdings. This bump in wealth was driven mostly by a surge in the value of Americans’ stock market investments, which grew by $2.6 trillion during the quarter. Those rate hikes rocked financial markets, crushing the value of stock holdings, cooling the housing market and raising the specter of a recession. “Further, volatility in wealth since the onset of the pandemic will remind households of the fragility of any gains.”The stock market has rebounded in tandem with the US economy. And there are signs that some Americans are struggling to get by.

Persons: specter, “, Goldman Sachs, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden’s, Marc Rosen, ” Rosen Organizations: New, New York cnn, Federal Reserve, Moody’s Analytics, Bloomberg News, White, CNN, Wall Street, New York Federal Reserve Locations: New York, United States

☆ NY Fed data shows a decline in neutral rate during second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bank said its R-Star estimate for the second quarter ticked down to 0.57%, from the first quarter’s 0.68%. Analysts typically translate that rate into a real-world setting by adding R-Star to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Given that the Fed’s current target rate range is at 5.25% to 5.5%, it suggests monetary policy remains at a notably restrictive level for the economy. One key test of how Fed officials are thinking about the issue could come at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for Sept. 19-20. At that gathering officials are due to update forecasts for interest rates and the economy and that will include a view on long-run rates.

Persons: John Williams, there’s, Jerome Powell, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Federal, Committee, Thomson Locations: New, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, guesswork

☆ JCPenney CEO: Working families are struggling to get by as inflation bites
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —JCPenney CEO Marc Rosen sees plenty of evidence that working-class families are struggling. “And that customer is facing a tougher economic environment.”The JCPenney CEO pointed to the snowballing effect inflation has had on family budgets, noting that the typical household is spending about $700 more per month than they did two years ago for the same goods and services. He pointed to strong private brand sales for apparel as well as for home goods like cookware and small appliances such as blenders and toasters. The JCPenney CEO wouldn’t directly answer whether the department store plans to return to the public markets through an initial public offering. “We think there are a lot of advantages right now to being a private company,” Rosen said, noting that JCPenney’s owners are reinvesting in the company and are taking a “long-term perspective” on that investment.

Persons: Marc Rosen, Liz Claiborne, Rosen, ” Rosen, delinquencies, “, JCPenney, wouldn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, “, JCPenney, New York Federal Reserve, ” Bank of America, Simon Property Group, Brookfield Asset Management Locations: New York

☆ Lucrative college degrees that can lead to salaries of more than $100,000 are largely held by men, study finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Sawdah Bhaimiya | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The most lucrative college degrees are still largely held by men, a Bankrate study has found. It found that 78% of those who held the 20-highest paying bachelor's degrees were men, while only 22% were women. In electrical engineering, 85% of degree holders were men and 15% were women, with the average salary totaling $110,000. AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, bachelor's degrees where women made up the majority of degree holders were some of the lowest-paying fields. Although more women have college degrees than men and account for just over half of America's college-educated workforce, 2022 Pew Research Center Data found, they're still lagging behind men when it comes to earnings.

Persons: Rose Khattar Organizations: College, Service, Survey, New York Federal Reserve, Pew Research Center, Center for American Locations: Wall, Silicon, caregiving

☆ Macy’s sounds the alarm on credit card delinquencies
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

This situation is hurting Macy’s business, driving down credit card revenue by 36% year over year and contributing to a quarterly loss, he said. Citing worsening consumer leverage metrics, Macy’s is bracing for a further increase in “bad debt” in its credit card portfolio. “I think the credit card revenue is an indication of some of the pressures that we’re actually seeing on the consumer,” Mitchell said. Consumer credit card debt topped $1 trillion during the second quarter for the first time on record, according to the New York Federal Reserve. More concerningly, new credit card and auto loan delinquencies have now surpassed pre-Covid levels, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

Persons: New York CNN —, ” Adrian Mitchell, Macy’s, ” Mitchell, ” Macy’s, Locker Organizations: New, New York CNN, Citibank, Consumer, New York Federal Reserve, Moody’s Investors Service, Credit Locations: New York, Wells

That has made it tricky to predict consumer spending. The swirl of confusing trends tees up a closely watched retail earnings season that could offer more clarity about consumers and the economy. As inflation cools, the growth of average hourly earnings has begun to outpace the rise in the consumer price index. He called low unemployment "the big offset that's helped consumer spending hang in." "I thought with all of the revenge travel that's been happening, that would impact consumer spending on goods," she said.

Persons: Aditya Bhave, that's, Andrew Garthwaite, That's, Levi Strauss, Chip Bergh, Michael Baker, Davidson, splurge, Baker, Taylor Swift, Davidson's Baker, Nikki Baird, she's, I'm, Corie Barry, headboards Organizations: Getty, Bank of America, Target, Walmart, JPMorgan, Wall, Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse, U.S, of Labor Statistics, CNBC, . Bureau, Labor, D.A, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Board Locations: Waterbury , Connecticut, U.S, Italy

☆ NY Fed: One year inflation expectations hits the lowest level since April 2021
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNY Fed: One year inflation expectations hits the lowest level since April 2021CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on news from the New York Federal Reserve.

Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: New York Federal Reserve

☆ The rate of Americans failing to pay credit cards and car loans climbs above pre-Covid levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New credit card and auto loan delinquencies have now surpassed pre-Covid levels, according to a Wednesday report issued by Moody’s Investors Service. This metric is now ahead of where it was in the second quarter of 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic rocked the economy. The rate of new auto loan delinquencies is also on the rise, hitting 7.3% in the second quarter, compared with 6.9% in the first quarter. Auto loan and credit card delinquencies remain well below Great Recession levels. The good news from the Moody’s report is that fewer Americans are falling behind on their mortgage payments.

Persons: New York CNN —, That’s, Moody’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Moody’s Investors Service, New York Federal Reserve, Auto Locations: New York

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