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☆ 'The damage has already been done': A 31-year market vet shares 3 pieces of evidence that the labor market is about to collapse, sending the economy into recession and the stock market spiraling
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US economy added just 150,000 jobs, under the expected 180,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, now 0.5% higher than its low earlier this year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Bullandbearprofits.comSecond, the inverted yield curve is starting to steepen. An inverted yield curve has been an extremely reliable recession indicator over the last several decades. Bullandbearprofits.com"Proven leading indicators show that the unemployment rate is likely to start rising materially soon. Piper SandlerIn addition to the yield curve and employment indicators above, other recession indicators continue to point to a downturn ahead.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merril Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, bode, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent, Fed, Bank of America, Societe Generale's, Generale, Edwards . Societe Generale Locations: lockstep, Edwards .

After 525 basis points of interest rate hikes, financial conditions are now the tightest in a year, and biting. JPMorgan strategists estimate that the impact on GDP from tightening financial conditions takes anywhere from one to two years to be felt. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsThe renewed weakness of U.S. regional bank shares is one of them. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBNP Paribas analysts reckon the impact on GDP growth from tighter financial conditions recently equates to a 40 basis point rate hike. Around a third of the bank's financial conditions index rise since April is from higher bond yields.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Torsten Slok, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Fed, Treasury, Wall, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, October's

☆ Inflation is cooling, but the price hikes aren’t done
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Lucy Bayly | Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Inflation in the United States has unquestionably cooled after hitting 40-year highs last year. Other key inflation gauges, the more comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and the wholesale-focused Producer Price Index, have moderated as well. A spike in gas prices and other components such as persistently high shelter costs have kept inflation elevated. The locally owned Walnut Group restaurant company closed its venerable Mediterranean Restaurant (fondly called The Med), the French bistro Brasserie Ten Ten and the newer Italian entrant Via Perla. Courtesy Tim Romano PhotographyAlthough Brasserie Ten Ten had a nearly two-decade run before its closure, it was like starting a brand new restaurant, Hessel said.

Persons: Marlon Pando, White Lotus, Tony Hessel, he’s, Jerome Powell, Brandon Bell, —, ”, Lydia Boussour, United States —, Pando, “, Price, Frederic J . Brown, Mark Zandi, Chase Castor, hadn’t, Holly Wade, Peggy Romano, Romano, Brasserie, Tim Romano, Hessel, ” Hessel, you’ve, it’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Disney, Mexican Grill, White, Getty, Moody’s, National Federation of Independent, Washington Post, NFIB Research, shocker, Walnut Group, Via Perla Locations: Minneapolis, New Jersey, Boulder , Colorado, United States, Mexican, Austin , Texas, Alhambra , California, AFP, Marion , Kansas, —, Walnut

☆ The Fed is at odds with itself. That’s a feature, not a bug
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.

Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, ”, Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens

☆ A 32-year market vet warns a recession is still on the way as the Fed's jumbo rate hikes continue to work their way into the economy — and shares 3 reasons why stocks are overvalued by 35%
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The hikes scared investors into thinking a recession would be on the way. But today, the labor market remains strong and inflation is under 4%, prompting rosier outlooks about the fate of the US economy. Rate hikes take time to work their way into the economy. But their main adversary going forward is going to be the Fed, with inflation still elevated. The Consumer Price Index is at 3.7% year-over-year, and core inflation, which the Fed watches closely, is even higher at 4.3%.

Persons: Michael Pento, Piper Sandler, Pento, Louis, LEI, Greg Boutle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Jeremy Grantham, Merrill Lynch, Gary Shilling, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Conference, Stock, Robeco, Nasdaq, BNP, Fed

☆ The latest data signals the Fed will pause next week and keep future rate hikes on the table
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That data indicates that the Federal Reserve is still likely to hold rates steady next week, some investors say. Inflation: US inflation climbed 3.7% in August from the prior year, marking an acceleration for the second consecutive month, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. Excluding the boost from gas station sales, retail spending added 0.2% in August from July. Traders see a roughly 97% chance that the central bank keeps rates unchanged in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The central bank has now raised its main interest rate at 10 consecutive meetings, taking it to the highest level since the launch of the euro currency in 1999.

Persons: “, ”, Sam Millette, Price, Taylor Swift, Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, Liz Young, CNN’s Olesya, Michelle Toh ., Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Financial Network, National Federation of Independent Business, Comerica Bank, Traders, European Central Bank, Central Bank, ECB, Cornell University, Schroders, Fashion, Cornell’s Global Labor Institute Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Schroders

☆ Inflation woes persist for small businesses as they struggle to hire
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington CNN —America’s small businesses felt gloomier in August as they continued to struggle with inflation and hiring qualified workers, according to a survey from the National Federation of Independent Business released Tuesday. Optimism among more than 600 small businesses surveyed declined in August from the prior month, snapping a three-month streak of improving sentiment. The share of small business owners saying they had job openings that were hard to fill stood at 40% last month, down slightly from July but still historically high. “With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions discouraging, owners want to hire and make money now from strong consumer spending,” said Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB’s chief economist, in the release. The US economy remains on strong footing, despite rapid rate hikes, with consumer spending jumping 0.8% in July and retail sales advancing 0.7% that month.

Persons: Washington CNN —, ”, Bill Dunkelberg, Goldman Sachs, Simona Mocuta Organizations: Washington CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, American Bankers, Economic, Committee, State Street Global Advisors

☆ The problem with labor data in understanding inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The central bank will continue to pay close attention to the state of the labor market, specifically on wages, as it focuses on defeating inflation, but there’s only so much that labor data can reveal about price increases. Mainly, it’s that wage figures are great at gauging inflation’s progress, but they’re lousy at forecasting its future. Financial markets have shifted back to a “bad news is good news” way of perceiving economic data and will continue to react to labor data, but ultimately, it’s the actual inflation data that matter most to the Fed. The issue of labor figures in forecasting inflation lies with productivity data. The Federal Reserve releases August data on industrial production.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, ”, Quincy Krosby, ” Agron Nicaj, it’s, Anna Cooban, ” James Athey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, Financial, LPL Financial, CNN, Oracle, National Federation of Independent Business, National Statistics, US Labor Department, Adobe, European Central Bank, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Lennar Homes, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Saudi Arabia

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Rising U.S. business bankruptcies may raise a red flag in what otherwise appears like an economy now impervious to rising interest rates. Commenting on the numbers, insolvency research organisation ABI blamed elevated interest rates, price inflation and a resumption of student loan payments as just some of the headwinds causing stress. That partly mirrors some of built-in household resilience to rising rates related to long-term fixed-rate borrowings and still-high cash savings that now earn significantly higher rates of interest now too. And that 10% - accounting for more than 60% of index market cap - had seen no rise in net interest payments so far in the Fed campaign. But creeping insolvencies among the smaller firms - many of whom have been dubbed 'zombies' for years due to their survival solely on low interest rates - may be a better reflection of what's starting to happen at the coalface of the economy.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Albert Edwards, Edwards, Andrew Lapthorne, Russell, NFIB, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Yellow Corp, P Global Market Intelligence, Reuters, Societe Generale, Fed, National Federation of Independent Business, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, midyear

☆ Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hints at more bad news for consumers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington, DC CNN —Additional interest rate hikes are still on the table and rates could remain elevated for longer than expected, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday. “Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy,” Powell said. “So what does that mean for monetary policy? The Fed chair said higher interest rates are likely pulling on the economy’s reins, implying that r* might not be structurally higher, though he said it’s an unobservable concept. But we cannot identify with certainty the neutral rate of interest, and thus there is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint,” Powell said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Powell, ” William English, Jason Furman, ” Organizations: DC CNN, Kansas City, Fed, Financial, Atlanta Fed, National Federation of Independent, Yale University, Fed’s, Governors, CNN, Commerce Department, Index, Harvard Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Majority of small businesses believe US is in recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Aug 21 (Reuters) - More than half of U.S. small business owners believe the economy is already in a recession, marking a slight decrease between July and April, despite most firms reporting their own financial condition was strong, a survey released on Monday showed. On the economy, 52% of small business owners said they believe the economy is already in a recession, down from 55% in April, the survey found. Recent indicators have shown strong retail sales and rising spending on services, the two largest small business industries. Moreover, businesses see their own financial condition as strong and their local economies relatively healthy. There was heightened concern among small businesses at the outset of the collapse since 80% of all small businesses use a small, mid-sized or regional bank for financial needs.

Persons: Safiyah Riddle, Josie Kao Organizations: National Federation of Independent Business, Silicon Valley Bank, U.S, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon

☆ US small businesses feel better about the economy, but still can’t find enough skilled workers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

As inflation continued to slow last month, optimism improved among the more than 1,300 small businesses surveyed, though it remains subdued compared to pre-pandemic times. Of owners hiring or trying to hire, 92% reported few or no qualified applicants for their available jobs, also unchanged from the prior month. “With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions dismal, owners want to hire and make money now from solid consumer spending,” said Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB’s chief economist, in a release. Despite the economy holding steady, optimism among small businesses isn’t back to where it was before the pandemic. Even though businesses are still grappling with difficulties in hiring, cooling inflation has taken some of the edge off.

Persons: ”, Bill Dunkelberg, they’ve Organizations: DC CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Reserve, Gross, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Labor Department, Wall Street Locations: Washington

☆ Ahead of two key inflation reports, what would a soft landing look like exactly?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But aside from simply skirting a recession, it’s not obvious what the economy would look like in a soft landing. And who even declares that the Fed has officially defied the odds and achieved a soft landing? The main aspect of a soft landing, according to economists, is the absence of a recession, which is determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.) In a soft landing, the job market has to remain intact. The other key feature of a soft landing is for the Fed to successfully control inflation, but that’s open to some interpretation.

Persons: we’ve, ”, Kayla Bruun, “, Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, Josh Markman, cooldown, Austan Goolsbee, ” Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Armour, Ralph Lauren Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Morning, Atlanta, ZipRecruiter, Labor, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, “, Tyson Foods, UPS, Fox, Restaurant Brands, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Disney, US Labor Department, National Statistics, University of Michigan Locations: Washington

☆ Businesses aren't acting like a recession is coming this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Still, businesses aren't feeling too optimistic, with most still expecting a recession this year. However, big companies are hiring, businesses are expanding, and lots of entrepreneurs are filing to open new startups. This was partly due to consumers spending more and business investment being way up. The main measure of business investment in the GDP report is well above pre-pandemic levels, and shows no signs of slowing down ahead of a hypothetical recession. Businesses also aren't feeling too optimistic according to the National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index.

Persons: —, Gregory Daco, Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, US . Entrepreneurs, Economic Innovation Group, Economic, Nationwide, Edelman Data, Intelligence, National Federation of Independent Business, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Business conditions are expected to improve as inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —American businesses are expected to fare better in the coming months, according to a survey of economists and analysts released Monday. A survey from the National Association for Business Economics released Monday showed that businesses have rejoiced in better economic conditions. Meanwhile, a majority of respondents reported that wages at their firms were unchanged — the first time more economists reported no wage gains than rising wages since 2021. The Fed doesn’t necessarily need a recession to do that, but some research suggests the labor market must cool further. The labor market is closely watched by Fed officials since higher labor costs feed into inflation.

Persons: haven’t, ”, Julia Coronado, Austan Goolsbee, cooldown, Brian Moynihan, bode Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, National Association for Business, Employers, Chicago Fed, Bank of America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Federation of Independent, Fed Locations: Washington

☆ The economy is doing exactly what we need to avoid a recession and keep booming
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Recent data reveals inflation is cooling, the labor market is slowing, and a recession may not come after all. Inflation data released Wednesday showed that inflation is coming down fast. The Fed may be pleased by this data, though a rate hike may still be on the table later this month. Other measures also show that the job market is still very healthy. The Fed may be happy to see slower job growth and the prime-age labor force participation rate rising, Bunker said.

Persons: doesn't, Julia Pollak, Nick Bunker, Bunker, Jerome Powell, Bill Adams, Pollak, " Pollak, Powell Organizations: Service, Labor, Survey, North America, Federal, Consumer, CPI, National Federation of Independent Business, Congress, Fed, Comerica Bank, Comerica Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The number of small firms raising prices fell to the lowest level since March 2021
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —The number of small businesses saying they raised their prices fell in June to its lowest level since March 2021, according to a survey released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business. The share of respondents who reported higher prices dropped by three points last month to 29%, “still a very inflationary level but trending down,” the report showed. “Inflation and labor shortages continue to be great challenges for small businesses,” said the NFIB’s chief economist Bill Dunkelberg in a release. The current tight labor market has been keeping pressure on employers to raise prices to protect their margins — a dynamic that Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussed in recent remarks. The impact of improving supply chainsThe economy has slowed from its red-hot pace after rebounding from the pandemic, but some dynamics that prompted businesses to raise prices have been slowly unwinding.

Persons: “, Kieran Clancy, ”, Bill Dunkelberg, Jerome Powell, Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Federal Reserve, Fed, Research, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington, San

☆ The US economy can’t function smoothly without UPS. That’s why a strike will hurt
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

That’s why there is so much at stake in contract negotiations between UPS and the Teamsters union. Without a deal, 340,000 Teamsters are preparing to go on strike at the nation’s largest trucking company starting August 1. A UPS strike could spread disruptions like that across much of the country. Their ability to adjust and find alternatives, it’s going to be challenging.”The economy has changed radically in the 26 years since the last UPS strike in 1997. UPS won’t comment on its contingency plans, saying it is focused on reaching a deal that would avoid a strike.

Persons: ”, Patrick Anderson, It’s, “, Sean O’Brien, O’Brien, it’s, Holly Wade, Satish Jindel, Mike Eisner, Jindel, Eisner, Tommy Storch, you’ll, it’ll, ” Storch Organizations: New, New York CNN, UPS isn’t, UPS, Teamsters, Anderson Economic Group, CNN, “ Shipping, National Federation of Independent Business, FedEx, US Postal Service, Postal Service, USPS Locations: New York, Michigan

☆ LGBTQ small business owners struggle to find financing
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

For LGBTQ owners, the struggle has been even harder. Overall, small business owners are skeptical about their future business conditions, said Holly Wade, executive director of the National Federation of Independent Business' Research Center. "The small business economy is being hindered by inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages," she said. Yet, data show that when it comes to financing, LGTBQ small business owners are being left behind. While LGBTQ small business owners are very optimistic, they are also still more likely to report more kinds of financial challenges than non-LGBTQ businesses.

Persons: It's, Spencer Watson, Watson, Holly Wade, hasn't Organizations: Advancement, Center, Economic Advancement & Research, National Federation of Independent Business ' Research

☆ Consumers feel better/worse about inflation, economy's direction
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —Americans are feeling upbeat about inflation and the economy, according to the University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey released Friday. Consumers’ inflation expectations for the year ahead retreated for the second straight month, declining to 3.3% early this month from 4.2% in May. That’s good news for the Federal Reserve, which closely watches sentiment surveys to gauge the expectations consumers and businesses have for price hikes. “The sharp drop of short-term consumer inflation expectations points to another slowdown in the June CPI report, which will be out before the Fed’s next decision,” wrote Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an analyst note. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his news conference this week that inflation expectations remain in check.

Persons: ”, Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, That’s, Christopher Waller Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan’s, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Norway

☆ The Fed is about to decide whether or not to keep ramping up its fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Some anticipate the Fed will raise rates again in July in an attempt to bring inflation down to the 2% target. Even if the Fed forgoes a rate increase on Wednesday, Fed officials have suggested the Fed may hike rates again at later meetings. The survey also found people's expectations of job loss fell 1.3 percentage points to 10.9%, suggesting rising job market strength. "I do not think that wages are the principal driver of inflation," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the Fed's May policy meeting. "For instance, recent evidence shows that wage growth tends to follow inflation, as well as expectations of future inflation."

Persons: —, it's, Jerome Powell, Adam Shapiro, Shapiro Organizations: Federal, Service, Committee, Fed, payrolls, Labor Statistics, Labor, Index, BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of San, National Federation of Independent Business Locations: Ukraine, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ Growing number of small businesses worry about inflation and the economy’s future
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington CNN —A greater number of small businesses are worried about inflation and future business conditions, according to a survey released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business. The Fed keeps a close eye on inflation expectations to know whether or not US consumers have become used to a certain level of inflation. “Overall, small business owners are expressing concerns for future business conditions,” Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB’s chief economist, said in a release. The share of small business owners expecting better business conditions in the future declined in May while the share reporting that inflation “was their single most important problem in operating their business” increased. Officials are confident that inflation expectations remain in check.

Persons: “, Bill Dunkelberg, it’s, ”, Jerome Powell Organizations: Washington CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal, Fed, Labor Statistics, Index, Employers, Market Committee

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Amid banking woes, faltering US small-caps offer ominous economic sign
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, May 12 (Reuters) - A U.S. stocks rally is leaving behind smaller companies, a sign that investors may be bracing for economic turmoil ahead. "Typically in a recession, small caps underperform." Last month it downgraded its view on U.S. small caps from "unfavorable" to "most unfavorable." Some investors are more upbeat about the outlook for small caps, particularly when looking beyond the next several months. One reason is that small caps, being sensitive to economic fluctuations, tend to shine early in a market recovery.

"When you get into higher interest rates ... you look to your collateral," Rodeheaver said in an interview. "We are tightening on price and profitability ... That is going to slow lending a bit." "The economy has started to slow in an orderly fashion" in response to higher interest rates, Jefferson said, calling tighter credit conditions "part of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy." Powell, however, said he felt the impact of the credit shock "remains uncertain," and his own baseline outlook does not include a recession. Bank lending dipped about 1.7% in the two weeks following SVB's collapse, but has risen since then and recouped about a third of the decline.

☆ US small business sentiment slumps to more than 10-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. small business confidence fell to more than a 10-year low in April on worries about the near-term economic outlook and persistent worker shortages, but there were few signs that businesses were having difficulties accessing credit. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index dropped 1.1 points to 89.0 last month, the lowest level since January 2013. "As we've argued before, though, measures of sentiment are often a poor guide of what is likely to happen in the economy because it tells us more about how business owners are feeling, rather than what they are doing." The share of owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months fell two points to a net negative 49%. Forty-five percent of owners reported job openings that they could not fill, up 2 points from March.

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