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☆ Russia's inflation spike sets Kremlin and central bank on collision course
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L) and Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina Alexei Nikolsky\TASS via Getty ImagesRussia's rising inflation and plunging currency have spotlighted an emerging discord between the Kremlin and the country's central bank. Analysts suggested the government's direct strong-arming of the central bank into monetary policy action was a sign of the problems faced by the country's economy. In other words, the Russian currency has entered a vicious circle that it will struggle to escape from." This is because the negative factors behind the weakening currency are largely outside the control of the Central Bank of Russia." She added that blaming the central bank has therefore become an "easy tactic" for the Kremlin in the absence of any tangible options through which to improve the situation.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina Alexei Nikolsky, Vladimir Putin's, Maxim Oreshkin, Anatoly Aksakov, Agathe Demarais, Demarais, Stephanie Kennedy, Julius Baer, Kennedy Organizations: Russian Central Bank Governor, Getty, Kremlin, Central Bank of Russia, Bank, Bank of Russia, Financial, Bank of, Economist Intelligence Unit, CNBC, CBR, U.S . Locations: Russia, Bank of Russia, Ukraine

☆ Russia's central bank bids to prop up the plummeting ruble by hiking interest rates to 12% at an emergency meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Bank of Russia raised interest rates by 350 basis points to 12% at an emergency meeting Tuesday. It's trying to prop up the ruble, which plummeted to a 16-month low this week. The currency strengthened in the immediate aftermath of the central bank’s latest move. It brought in the rate hike after the ruble fell to a 16-month low of nearly 102 to the dollar Monday, leading to Moscow publicly rebuking the central bank. The Bank of Russia responded to Oreshkin's criticisms by calling an emergency meeting, where it voted to raise interest rates for the second month in a row.

Persons: It's, Vladimir Putin, Maxim Oreshkin Organizations: Bank of Russia, Service, Bank of Locations: Wall, Silicon, Bank of Russia, Ukraine, Moscow

☆ Russian central bank jacks up interest rates to 12% at emergency meeting after ruble plunge
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

National flag flies over the Russian Central Bank headquarters in Moscow, Russia May 27, 2022. Russia's central bank on Tuesday hiked interest rates by 350 basis points to 12% at an emergency meeting, as Moscow looks to halt a rapid depreciation of the country's ruble currency. The ruble slumped near 102 to the dollar on Monday, as President Vladimir Putin's economic advisor, Maxim Oreshkin, penned an op-ed in Russian state-owned Tass news agency that blamed the plunging currency and the acceleration of inflation on "loose monetary policy." The Bank of Russia subsequently announced an extraordinary meeting on Tuesday to reassess its key interest rate, which previously sat at 8.5%. The ruble strengthened early on Tuesday, as investors bet on a significant tightening of monetary policy from the central bank, and was trading just below 96 to the dollar shortly before 8 a.m. London time.

Persons: Vladimir Putin's, Maxim Oreshkin Organizations: Russian Central Bank, Tass, of Russia Locations: Moscow, Russia, Russia's, London

☆ Tumbling rouble claws back ground as central bank to meet
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Putin's economic adviser Maxim Oreshkin earlier said the central bank could ensure that the pace of lending drops to sustainable levels with higher rates. "The central bank has all the tools to normalise the situation in the near future." Asked earlier whether it might make an emergency hike from the current 8.5%, the central bank declined to comment. "The central bank is not fully in control," independent Moscow-based economist Ian Melkumov told Reuters. "The central bank doesn't want to kill the economy and businesses in the same way it had to last year," he said.

Persons: Rouble, Vladimir Putin's, rouble, Putin, Maxim Oreshkin, Oreshkin, Denis Popov, Popov, Matt Vogel, REUTERS Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Vladimir Solovyev, Ivan, Timothy Ash, Ian Melkumov, Alexander Marrow, Marc Jones, Gareth Jones, Philippa Fletcher, Christina Fincher Organizations: TASS, of Russia's, FIM, Moscow News Agency, Handout, REUTERS Central Bank Governor, Popular, Kremlin, Reuters, BlueBay Asset Management, Thomson Locations: MOSCOW, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, London

☆ Russian rouble sinks, Kremlin blames loose monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The main source of rouble weakening and accelerating inflation is soft monetary policy," Oreshkin wrote. "The central bank has all the tools to normalise the situation in the near future and ensure that lending rates are reduced to sustainable levels. Last week, Russia effectively abandoned its budget rule, with the central bank halting the finance ministry's FX purchases to try and reduce volatility. "The central bank is not fully in control," independent Moscow-based economist Ian Melkumov told Reuters, although it has aggressive tools that it is currently reluctant to use. "(But) the central bank doesn't want to kill the economy and businesses in the same way it had to last year."

Persons: Kremlin, Rouble, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Maxim Oreshkin, Oreshkin, Timothy Ash, Ian Melkumov, Alexander Marrow, Gareth Jones Organizations: TASS, Kremlin, of Russia, Moscow News Agency, Handout, REUTERS, Reuters, BlueBay Asset Management, Thomson Locations: MOSCOW, Ukraine, Russia, Moscow, London

☆ Kremlin blames loose monetary policy as rouble slides past 100 vs dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The main source of rouble weakening and accelerating inflation is soft monetary policy," Oreshkin wrote. "The central bank has all the tools to normalise the situation in the near future and ensure that lending rates are reduced to sustainable levels. "It is in the interests of the Russian economy to have a strong rouble." The central bank hiked rates by 100 basis points in July to 8.5%, having held them steady since September. Last week, Russia effectively abandoned its budget rule, with the central bank halting the finance ministry's FX purchases to try and reduce volatility.

Persons: Kremlin, Rouble, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Maxim Oreshkin, Oreshkin, Timothy Ash, Alexander Marrow, Felix Light, Guy Faulconbridge, Gareth Jones Organizations: Moscow News Agency, Handout, TASS, Kremlin, Bank of, BlueBay Asset Management, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, MOSCOW, Ukraine, Bank of Russia, London

☆ Russian ruble slumps to near 17-month low, moves past 100 against the dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This pool image distributed by Sputnik agency shows Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting with the Tver region governor at the Kremlin in Moscow on August 9, 2023. The Russian ruble slid past 100 to the U.S. dollar on Monday, nearing a 17-month low as President Vladimir Putin's economic advisor blamed loose monetary policy for the rapid depreciation. Putin's economic advisor Maxim Oreshkin told Russia's state-owned Tass news agency that the depreciation would normalize in the near future." A weak ruble complicates the restructuring of the economy and negatively affects the real incomes of the population. In the interests of the Russian economy — a strong ruble," he said, according to a Google translation.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Putin's, Maxim Oreshkin, William Jackson, Jackson Organizations: Sputnik, Kremlin, Russian, U.S, greenback, Bank of, Tass, Federal State Statistics Service, Capital Economics Locations: Tver, Moscow, Bank of Russia, Russia's, Russia, Russian

☆ Russia Tries to Bolster Ruble as Inflation Adds to Economic Woes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Paul Sonne | More About Paul Sonne | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Russian central bank took measures on Thursday to stabilize the currency, amid the latest squall of financial volatility unleashed by Mr. Putin’s war against Ukraine. This time, the challenges are seen in both a struggling ruble that is fueling inflation, but also in government budget deficits that raise concerns about the sustainability of Russia’s intense spending on the war. The weakening ruble neared an exchange rate of 100 per U.S. dollar earlier this week, down by roughly 25 percent since the start of the year. The decline prompted the Bank of Russia on Thursday to halt purchases of foreign currency for the remainder of the year “to reduce volatility.”The central bank’s move should help shore up the ruble, because when the bank spends rubles to buy foreign currency, it increases the supply of rubles in circulation, lowering their value. The ruble was roughly flat in trading on Thursday.

Persons: Vladimir V Organizations: U.S ., Ukraine, Bank of Russia Locations: Russian

☆ Russia’s Moves to Shore Up Ruble Reflect War’s Toll on Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Anatoly Kurmanaev | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

The Russian currency fell nearly 25 percent since the beginning of the year. “The ruble exchange rate is only an indicator,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and a former Russian central bank official. The ruble plummeted to as low as 135 per dollar and the central bank took a series of dramatic measures, including capital controls, to stave off a full-blown meltdown. The most immediate concern for Russian financial policymakers is the possibility of significant inflation. The country’s central bank reacted to that risk late last month with a higher-than-expected rise in interest rates, to 8.5 percent.

Persons: ”, Alexandra Prokopenko, Vladimir V, Putin, Yevgeny V Organizations: Bank of Russia, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Locations: Moscow, Russia, Russian, Ukraine, Soviet Union

Under its budget rule, Russia sells foreign currency from its National Wealth Fund (NWF) to make up for any shortfall in revenue from oil and gas exports, or makes purchases in the event of a surplus. The central bank restarted its own separate interventions this month, selling 2.3 billion roubles' worth of foreign currency a day, something it said it would continue to do. The bank's decision means that from Thursday, daily FX sales will total 2.3 billion roubles, as opposed to net sales of 0.5 billion roubles envisaged previously. The bank said it may defer purchases within the budget rule framework to 2024. "We may see new measures to stabilise the situation on the FX market," the analysts said.

Persons: Elena Fabrichnaya, Alexander Marrow, Darya Korsunskaya, Kevin Liffey, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: of Russia, National Wealth Fund, Bank of, FX, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Moscow, London

☆ Exclusive: Russia doubles 2023 defence spending plan as war costs soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

They show that in the first half of 2023 alone, Russia spent 12%, or 600 billion roubles, more on defence than the 4.98 trillion roubles ($54 billion) it had originally targeted for 2023. Defence spending in the first six months of 2023 amounted to 5.59 trillion roubles, 37.3% of a total 14.97 trillion roubles spent in the period, the document showed. Between 2011 and 2022, Russia spent a minimum of 13.9% and a maximum 23% of its budget on defence. Russia has already spent 57.4% of its new annual defence budget, the document showed. Funding for schools, hospitals and roads was already being squeezed this year in favour of defence and security, but as the share of defence spending grows, other areas could face cuts.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Ilya Pitalyov, Denis Manturov, Dmitry Polevoy, Yevgeny Suvorov, Suvorov, Mike Collett, White, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: Sputnik, Reuters, Defence, MMI Telegram, Bank of Russia, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Russian, Saint Petersburg, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Locko

☆ Russia's VTB Bank nearing record profits as lending picks up
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Elena Fabrichnaya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

2 lender VTB (VTBR.MM) remains on track for record profits this year, CFO Dmitry Pyanov said, anticipating a further rise in lending and improving the bank's forecast for return on equity to above 20% for 2023. The bank posted 142.6 billion roubles ($1.58 billion) in second-quarter net profit on Thursday and said returns for the year as a whole could exceed 400 billion. VTB did not provide comparative figures as banks were ordered to limit disclosures in 2022. "The target may be higher than 400 billion roubles...I admit that it won't be exactly 400, but it won't be rounded up to 500 - you should not expect this. Pyanov said VTB would issue "replacement bonds" for three Eurobond issues, two denominated in dollars, and one in Swiss francs.

Persons: VTB, Dmitry Pyanov, Pyanov, Elena Fabrichnaya, Alexander Marrow, Jason Neely Organizations: Bank of, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Ukraine, Bank of Russia

☆ Russia and China's trade relationship has become increasingly lopsided
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Yale data shared with Insider illustrate that China is now Russia's largest import and export partner. Thousands of companies have pulled out of Russia in the last year and that's made Moscow increasingly reliant on Beijing. Yale figures shared with Insider shows that China is now Russia's largest import and export partner by a big margin, but the relationship is heavily lopsided. By comparison, Russia is the 11th largest importer of Chinese goods, with the US, Hong Kong, and Japan taking in far more as China's three biggest trade partners. China and Russia have an asymmetric trade relationship.

Persons: that's, That's, Vladimir Putin's, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Russia's, Geely, Putin, Putin isn't, Xi Jinping, Mikhail Korostikov Organizations: Yale, Service, Bank of Locations: China, Russia, Moscow, Beijing, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Russian, Bank of Russia

According to JPM's circular, the shares currently unaccounted for are estimated to be less than 1% of the shares held in custody at another financial institution. This meant Deutsche was unable to reconcile the company shares held at another custodian bank with the depositary receipts on its own books. The Bank of Russia did not immediately respond to a request for comment on JP Morgan's search for the potentially missing Magnit shares. More than 60% of Magnit's shares are free-float, with shareholders including major global asset managers, Refinitiv data shows. When first announcing the plans, Magnit said its voluntary tender offer was also addressed to JPM, regarding shares held in its DR program custody account.

Persons: Morgan Chase, Mike Segar, Morgan, JPM, Deutsche, Russia's, Magnit, Sinead Cruise, Alexander Marrow, Jane Merriman Organizations: Co, New York City, REUTERS, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Bank . Lawyers, Deutsche, Bank of Russia, Settlement Depository, NSD, Kremlin, Thomson Locations: New York, Ukraine, Moscow, Russian, Krasnodar, Russia, Uzbekistan, Euroclear

☆ Russia should not take temporary control of foreign banks' units, central-bank governor says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a decree placing the Russian assets of Finland's Fortum (FORTUM.HE) and Germany's Uniper (UN01.DE), which both operate power plants in Russia, under Moscow's control. "Such decisions should be made with very good reasons, connected to the stable functioning of the Russian economy," Nabiullina said when asked whether Russia could do the same with banks. Foreign banks have stepped in to take business from Russian lenders hit by sweeping Western sanctions imposed after Moscow despatched troops to Ukraine in February 2022. Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International (RBIV.VI), earned more than half of its profit last year from Russia. Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya, Vladimir Soldatkin, Alexander Marrow and Jake Cordell; Editing by Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Russia's VTB to launch digital bank on VKontakte social network
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Elena Fabrichnaya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MOSCOW, April 26 (Reuters) - Russian state-owned bank VTB (VTBR.MM) will launch a digital bank within the mobile messaging app of leading social network VKontakte, Russia's answer to Facebook, as Moscow seeks technological solutions to disrupted banking transfers. That made operations with banks abroad particularly challenging as many bank cards stopped working overseas and Russia was disconnected from global payment systems. The digital bank will enable customers to carry out everyday financial transactions such as money transfers, some bill payments and mobile phone top-ups, within the VKontakte app. VTB, which had launched banking services through Telegram in January, said it was prepared to shut down its bank on Telegram once Roskomnadzor had come to a final decision. "As of today, there has been no such decision, so the bank in Telegram works, although we have stopped actively promoting it."

☆ Economic asphyxiation puts Russia in China’s orbit
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Cut off from foreign markets by sanctions, Vladimir Putin’s government is at pains to finance budget deficits that would have been manageable in peacetime. The financial difficulties are pushing Russia further into the sphere of influence of China’s President Xi Jinping, who visits Moscow this week. Dipping into the fund, though, will push Moscow further into China’s financial orbit, Russian economist Alexandra Prokopenko has noted. In the short term, financial hope for Russia can only come from a significant increase in oil and gas prices. Trade between China and Russia increased by 34% last year as Chinese imports of oil and gas jumped 50%.

☆ Russia's Sberbank not expecting cenbank to cut rates this year -CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MOSCOW, March 9 (Reuters) - Russia's biggest lender Sberbank (SBER.MM) does not expect the Bank of Russia to cut rates from 7.5% this year and sees the country's economic growth at around 0%, CEO German Gref said on Thursday. Sberbank made a net profit of 270.5 billion roubles ($3.57 billion) in 2022, the bank said on Thursday, a 78.3% drop from the year before as sweeping Western sanctions rattled Russia's financial sector. Gref said the bank's 2023 return on equity should come in at around 20%, up from 5.2% in 2022. ($1 = 75.9500 roubles)Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya and Alexander Marrow; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

India's oil trade, in response to the turmoil of sanctions and the Ukraine war, provides the strongest evidence so far of a shift into other currencies that could prove lasting. MTS had facilitated some Indian oil non-dollar payments, the trade sources said. An Indian refining source said most Russian banks have faced sanctions since the war but Indian customers and Russian suppliers are determined to keep trading Russian oil. "As it is, the government is not asking us to stop buying Russian oil, so we are hopeful that an alternative payment mechanism will be found in case the current system is blocked." Similarly, many banks from Russia have opened accounts with Indian banks to facilitate trade.

Analysts have gradually raised their forecasts for where the key rate will end this year, to 7.5% from 7.13% in the previous poll. "High budget spending is the key issue," said Anton Tabakh, Chief Economist at RA Expert, who expected the upsurge in inflation at the beginning of the year due to higher budget spending to be contained. "But at the same time, there will be a preventative rate increase and, accordingly, we see the key rate at 7.5% in December, from 8%-8.25% in the middle of the year." Tabakh also said that all risks were higher and the level of uncertainty elevated. Inflation expectations, an indicator to which the central bank pays close attention ahead of meetings, rose to 12.2% in February.

☆ Russian 2023 budget deficit to widen as price caps take effect - Scope
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Lower revenues from oil and gas exports will significantly widen Russia's budget shortfall this year, according to an analysis from the European ratings agency Scope obtained by Reuters on Friday. Scope expects the deficit to rise to 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), significantly wider than the government's forecast of 2% of GDP, according to the analysis. Another way to plug the deficit is to issue domestic bonds to state-owned banks, backed by liquidity provided by the Bank of Russia. Western countries want caps on the price of Russian oil to reduce income for the Kremlin's war chest for its invasion of Ukraine, which entered its second year on Friday. Reporting by Rene Wagner; Writing by Friederike Heine; Editing by Rachel More and Kevin LiffeyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The SWIFT global payments system block and the freezing of more than $300 billion worth of central bank reserves abroad took Russia by surprise. The top executive at the top-20 Russian bank said Moscow was unprepared in particular for liquid assets being blocked and euro and dollar swaps becoming unavailable. "No one expected that the central bank would come under sanctions, and that it would be unable to help with foreign currency liquidity at that difficult moment," they said. 'BEST FRIEND'For banks, central bank support was crucial to weathering the initial hit to their business. The central bank's forecast is more restrained, at around 1 trillion roubles.

☆ Russian banks' profits reached 258 billion roubles in Jan - central bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MOSCOW, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Russian banks' profits totalled 258 billion roubles ($3.38 billion) in January, 1.5 times higher than in the same month of 2022, Russia's central bank said on Monday. Alexander Danilov, director of the central bank's banking regulation and analytics department, said last month Russian banks' profits could exceed 1 trillion roubles in 2023. Banks' corporate credit portfolio shrank by 140 billion roubles in January, while their forex portfolio grew by 0.3%, the Bank of Russia said. Banks gradually increased investments in OFZ treasury bonds in the same month, buying around two-thirds of bonds on offer, it added. ($1 = 76.2455 roubles)Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya and Alexander Marrow; Writing by Marina Bobrova; Editing by Jan HarveyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/2] People stand in line to use an ATM money machine in Saint Petersburg, Russia February 27, 2022. For the majority, who bank in roubles with huge retail lenders, such as Sberbank (SBER.MM), the answer is: not much. "Nothing has changed for me at all," said Vyacheslav Fatikhovich, a taxi driver in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg. "The only thing is that customers are paying less by card and more often in cash," he said. "I quickly opened three UnionPay cards at different Russian banks," Andrey, who now works outside Russia, said.

☆ Russian central bank holds key rate at 7.5%, gives hawkish signal
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Alexander Marrow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Bank of Russia kept its year-end inflation forecast at 5.0-7.0%, retaining hopes that it can return inflation to its 4% target in 2024. "If pro-inflation risks intensify, the Bank of Russia will consider the necessity of a key rate increase at its upcoming meetings," the bank said in a statement. The bank now sees its key rate in the 7.0%-9.0% range this year, up from 6.5%-8.5% in the previous forecast. The bank adjusted its 2023 GDP forecast to between growth of 1.0% and a contraction of 1.0%, from a 1.0%-4.0% decline previously. That has implications for Russia's 2023 budget, which is currently based on the $70.10 price.

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