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The four-year total return for the S & P 500 since March 23, 2020, is just about 150%, or 25.7% annualized. .SPX mountain 2020-03-23 S & P 500 since the Covid low This is, of course, an idealized starting point from which to measure performance. While the S & P 500 bottomed at around a three-year low under 2,200, the index spent only a few weeks under 2,500. More qualitatively, it's a bull market, and in a bull market the overshoots occur to the upside, so a rally being "ahead of itself" is not fatal. And the S & P 500 is only 9% higher than it was more than two years ago, hardly reaching escape velocity from planet Sanity.
Persons: , Warren, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, bullishness, Rocky White Organizations: HSBC, 3Fourteen, Bank of Japan, Fed, Ned Davis Research, Schaeffer's Investment Research, Intelligence, Bank of America
The S & P 500 and 30-stock Dow also were lower Friday, but have held up better than the Nasdaq for the week. Sector spotlight: There's a whole lot of red among S & P 500 sectors Friday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Stocks, Dow, Jensen Huang, Jim, I've, Jensen, Jim Cramer's, Brendan McDermid Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Apple, Adobe, Energy, Valero Energy, Bank of America, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips, Coterra Energy, VanEck Semiconductor, Nvidia, Broadcom, tailwinds, Club, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: U.S, New York City
The S & P 500 Volatility Index finished the week near 15 and is in a clear three- month uptrend from its mid-December low near 12, even as the S & P 500 has gained 10% since then. In fact, Friday the market minimized the headline damage to a mere two-thirds-percent dip in the S & P 500 through its signature rotational impulse. Some indicators — such as speculators remaining net short S & P 500 futures and brokerage strategists' muted index targets — imply the helpful wall of worry is not quite fully scaled. Since then, the S & P has delivered a 16.7% annualized total return, even after two bear markets and two other severe/prolonged corrections. And the S & P is only up 7% from its high 26 months ago, hardly in thin air.
Persons: what's, Eli Lilly, Martin Marietta, Nick Colas, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Costco, pharma, Martin Marietta Materials, Vulcan, 3Fourteen Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, DataTrek, Citi
The nine-woman K-pop group Twice leads the Billboard album chart for the first time this week with its latest mini-LP, thanks to collectible CD and vinyl sales, while Morgan Wallen marks a full year of blockbuster streaming numbers. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart with the equivalent of 95,000 sales in the United States. “With You-th” also garnered 6.3 million streams, the lowest streaming total for a No. 2 in its 52nd week on the chart, with the equivalent of 67,000 sales. 6 on the all-genre album chart — and even then, only hitting that low point two times.
Persons: Morgan Wallen, Celine Dion’s “, Locations: United States
The sheer persistence of the equity rally, with the S & P 500 up 16 of 18 weeks and refusing to succumb to supposed late-February seasonal weakness, has converted the cautious. Still, by some lights, stocks' valuation is one of the better sentiment indicators, and by that measure the investment community is pretty enthusiastic. More simply, we continue to see elevated but not alarming P/Es in the S & P 500 broadly while the median P/E of the top 10 names in the index remains close to past peaks." Coming at a time when the S & P 500 is more than 13% above its 200-day moving average — pretty stretched — and we haven't had even a 3% pullback since October. The "right" cyclical sectors are leading (industrials and consumer discretionary in addition to tech), and the equal-weight S & P 500 is nosing toward its old high.
Persons: Scott Rubner, maven, Goldman Sachs, there's, it's, hustled, gunning, BofA's Savita Subramanian, Citi's Scott Chronert, Barclays Venu Krishna, Lori Calvasina, haven't, I've, We've, Stocks, Organizations: Micro, Dell Technologies, ARM Holdings, Bank of America, Barclays, Big Tech, Tech, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S
AdvertisementNovember 2016: Holland and Zendaya appear in their first-ever joint cover, for The Hollywood ReporterZendaya and Tom Holland in June 2017. March 2021: Holland describes Zendaya as 'very sensible and humble'Zendaya and Tom Holland in June 2017. November 17, 2021: Holland and Zendaya comment on their relationship going publicZendaya and Tom Holland in "Spider-Man: No Way Home." February 18, 2022: Tom Holland denies reports that he bought a new house in London with ZendayaTom Holland in February 2022. I visited a lot while they were shooting it and I really, really enjoyed it.
Persons: , Tom Holland, Zendaya, they've, Sony Pictures Entertainment Holland, Peter Parker, Holland, didn't, I've, He's, Con Tom Holland, Albert L, Ortega, Laura Harrier, Liz, Tony Revolori, Flash Thompson, Jacob Batalon, Ned Leeds, ove, hank y, hank, ove y 'all!, hanks, eing, hy, H, ada, ike, huck, Tom Hol, le tag ove, g the, Hol, MJ', ake, hal l, taki, as h, Rob K, ate fame, abou, ..ha, lea, Kev, edd, Josh Flor, birt, rie, stor, Ric, aske, Tom H, ed then, hal, ong, winn, Q, iva, riva, ory, oba, Fran, and S, Jacob, him ", nic, Eric C, y, 2022:, enda y, Kelly, siti, ted, Hunter, Marc, Marin, inger, his ap, Rajan, Ze, kee, enjoy,, "I wa, stu, shou, olly, ing each o, I love, It's, Elvin R odrig, bert Downey Jr. an, Harry, l ove, bec, Room,", enda, fini Organizations: Service, Sony, Business, Sony Pictures Entertainment, Marvel, America, Hollywood, San Diego Comic, Con, San Diego Convention Center, ust, pla, imi, ucc, MTV, ppr, a pl, Norton, rac, eas, CP, ACP, Fr, rit, acc, klan, ely Locations: Holland, Zendaya, ife, uman, pla, Hol, " he, sens, nsw, pula, India, Italy
Couple this with the multiple signals for exhaustion that are typical near market tops, it warrants taking action. Troubling technical signs We've seen the SPDR S & P 500 Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) both exhibit higher highs in price while momentum and their advance-decline lines print lower highs. And lastly, these same signals are showing up across the major sectors, and individual stocks that have led this rally such as Nvidia. Overall, these are signs of exhaustion for this rally and raises the probability of a pullback. With the Wall Street's fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX) , trading just above 13, purchasing downside protection on a portfolio using SPY options is relatively inexpensive.
Persons: Zhang Organizations: Nvidia
Here is a bearish contrarian trade using options on an over-extended tech stock. MDB is clearly in a bull run, so although I am considering a bearish trade here, I also need to be aware of the price levels which may act as support for the stock. If the stock does go into a pullback, I have shown 3 important levels where the stock is most likely to bounce back. So my long strike would be above the current price and the short strike would be below the current price. If MDB trades at or below my short strike by the expiration date, this trade can yield a 100% ROI on the amount risked.
Persons: MDB, Nishant Pant Locations: MDB
If these tech giants disappoint in their earnings outlook, that would be enough reason for this rally to fizzle out, and Nasdaq could finally see a pullback. Here's a 6-month daily chart of the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ,which closely follows Nasdaq's price movement and can be used as a proxy to trade tech stocks. You may find trading platforms using other names like "put debit spread" or "long put spread," but they all mean the same. I did this because this trade is designed as a hedge against disappointing tech earnings, which are all happening this week, so I don't need a longer expiration date. QQQ 6M mountain QQQ, 6 months Since this trade is taken as a hedge, the expectation should be that if the markets don't tank after tech earnings, I will lose my initial investment.
Persons: Nishant Pant Organizations: Big Tech, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Nasdaq
The ABCs of Modern Life, According to Sheila Heti
  + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Dwight Garner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
ALPHABETICAL DIARIES, by Sheila Heti“No one at this point in history knows how to live, so we read biographies and memoirs, hoping to get some clues,” Sheila Heti writes in “Alphabetical Diaries,” her powerful and intimate new book. In “Alphabetical Diaries” Heti comes at this question slant, as Emily Dickinson advised truth tellers to do — so slant that you may feel you are in a ship that has been thrown sideways. The reader of “Alphabetical Diaries” will not be disappointed in this regard. Heti has done the really hard thinking about submission and its opposite. One four-letter word is zealously deployed in this book, and that word is not “love.”
Persons: Sheila Heti “, ” Sheila Heti, “ Don Quixote ”, ” Heti, Emily Dickinson, Rae Armantrout, , Christopher Hitchens, Martis Amis, Heti
BALTIMORE (AP) — A crash involving multiple vehicles closed all lanes on the heavily-traveled U.S. 50 Bay Bridge in Maryland on Saturday and motorists were advised to expect major delays, authorities said. The Maryland Transportation Authority said on X, formerly Twitter, the crash on the westbound lanes closed the bridge. The transportation authority said in a later post that eastbound and westbound traffic were alternating turns on the eastbound bridge, but the westbound bridge remained closed. Political Cartoons View All 253 ImagesAlso known as the William Preston Lane Jr. Memorial Bridge, the span crosses the Chesapeake Bay. It connects Maryland’s Eastern Shore and the metropolitan areas of Baltimore, Annapolis and Washington, the transportation authority said on its website.
Persons: Anne, William Preston Lane Jr Organizations: BALTIMORE, Maryland Transportation Authority, Police Department Locations: Maryland, Anne Arundel, Annapolis, Kent, Shore, Baltimore, Washington
REYKJAVIK, Iceland (AP) — Iceland’s president said the country is battling “tremendous forces of nature,” after molten lava from a volcano in the island’s southwest consumed several houses in the evacuated town of Grindavik. Johannesson said in a televised address late Sunday that “a daunting period of upheaval has begun on the Reykjanes peninsula,” where a long-dormant volcanic system has awakened. A volcano on the peninsula erupted for the second time in less than a month on Sunday morning. Authorities had ordered residents to leave the fishing town of Grindavik hours earlier as a swarm of small earthquakes indicated an imminent eruption. Political Cartoons View All 253 ImagesThe volcano eventually erupted on Dec. 18, sending lava flowing away from Grindavik.
Persons: , , Gudni Th, Johannesson, Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson, Gudjon Helgason Organizations: Authorities, Keflavík Locations: REYKJAVIK, Iceland, Grindavik, , Reykjavik
If you want a sense of how frothy things have become, look no further than the December Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. This is a survey of roughly 250 global fund managers and is a very good gauge of sentiment among fund managers. 1-month average returns: 1.9% (vs. 0.6% in all 1-month periods) 3- month average returns: 3.3% (vs. 1.9%) 1- year average returns: 7.5% (vs. 7.9%) Source: StoneX While eight-day streaks are rare, the Dow has done even better. Last July, th e Dow broke a 13-day winning streak , the likes of which were last seen in 1987. It's currently at an RSI (Relative Strength Indicator, a gauge of momentum over the past 14 trading days) of 85.
Persons: Dow, Matt Weller, That's, Weller, It's Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Federal, Dow Locations: China
It turns out that the Santa Claus rally on Wall Street extends beyond the official seven-session stretch from December into January for the S & P 500 , according to Bank of America. The official seven-session Santa Claus rally encompasses the final five trading sessions of December and the first two days of January. Historically during that period, the S & P 500 has gained 79% of the time with an average return of 1.66%, Bank of America found. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 is less than 1% away from reaching a fresh all-time high close. This year, the S & P 500 rallied 3.3% over the first 10 sessions of December, which ran through the 14 th of the month, Suttmeier found.
Persons: Santa Claus, Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Russell, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Santa
Why investors should stick with Eli Lilly
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a Morning Meeting livestream at 10:20 a.m. The treatment — which Jim Cramer has said could become the greatest-selling drug of all time — received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration last month, bolstering Eli Lilly shares. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Bond, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, STZ, Eli Lilly, , Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Club, Constellation Brands, Pfizer, U.S . Food, Drug Administration Locations: U.S
Tesla CEO Elon Musk hosted a delivery event this week at the company's factory in Austin, Texas, touting its towing abilities, race-car like acceleration, and even bulletproof doors. This jaw dropping event is in the wake of Elon Musk's comments earlier this week at the 2023 DealBook Summit in New York. The current opportunity I see for TSLA is a move higher into 2024 once this volatility is digested, yet again. Tesla call spread To capture this move higher, I want to buy a call spread. DISCLOSURES: (Long Tesla, short tesla puts, long call spread) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .
Persons: Elon Musk, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Elon, tesla Organizations: EV Locations: Austin , Texas, New York
The loudest investor chatter for months has insisted the heavyweights of the Nasdaq have been everything to the market in 2023. Sunday is the second anniversary of the all-time closing high in both the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 indexes, which remain 12% and 4 % underwater even after their monster gains in recent months. It's relatively rare for the Nasdaq 100 – the most easily investable part of the Nasdaq and the one most reflective of the mega-cap dominance – to enter a two-year downturn. Only three of the Big Seven have outperformed the Nasdaq 100 over the past two years – Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft — while Meta Platforms has kept pace and Amazon, Alphabet and Tesla have lagged. Friday showed signs of outright rotation, the Russell 2000 up 1.3% versus a flat Nasdaq 100.
Persons: Invesco, Scott Chronert, we've, I've, , Chronert, Apple's, What's, Berkshire Hathaway, Tony Pasquariello, Goldman Sachs, Russell, disinflation Organizations: Nasdaq, Sunday, QQQ, Citi, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Berkshire, Fed Locations: lockstep, Berkshire, Whereto
Some of them are imprinted with the text of the Second Amendment, others a rallying cry: “We fight fascists.” Among the most eye-catching is an ad for N.R.A. memberships, with its promise of “$5,000 Accidental Death and Dismemberment insurance.”But what about intentional deaths? “Watch Night,” a new multigenre hybrid show, is interested in those, specifically the ones fueled by homegrown prejudice. He wrote the libretto for “We Shall Not Be Moved” (2017), an opera inspired by the police bombing in 1985 of a Philadelphia house occupied by Black activists, with an artistic team that included Jones and Lauren Whitehead, the “Watch Night” dramaturg. Unfortunately, those experiences have not helped focus this new production.
Persons: Perelman, Bill T, Jones, Marc Bamuthi Joseph, Tamar, kali, Joseph, Carlos Simon, , George Floyd, Lauren Whitehead Organizations: Perelman Performing, Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church, Minnesota Orchestra, Black Locations: Charleston, S.C, Pittsburgh, “ brea, Philadelphia
YouTube wants to launch a AI feature to let users make music using their favorite singers' voices. It's been delayed by ongoing talks with record companies about the rights needed to train AI software. The arrival of AI-generated music has created significant legal issues for the music industry. The new tools are aimed at streamlining the creative process for YouTube users. The AI music function could potentially give YouTube users the ability to recreate any song with their favorite musician's voice, or create entirely new music replicating a singer.
Persons: It's, , didn't, Alexander Ross, that's, Drake, Munch ”, , Daniel Ek, Grimes, Elon Musk, who's Organizations: YouTube, Service, Bloomberg, Spotify
The CFPB warned student-loan borrowers that their servicers might engage in misleading behavior. On Tuesday, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau released a blog post outlining what protections and options borrowers have as payments resume. The agency has long been looking into potentially misleading behavior that has put student-loan borrowers at risk. As Insider previously reported, the transition back into repayment will be a significant challenge for borrowers, the Education Department, and student-loan servicers. AdvertisementAdvertisementStill, the Education Department said it remains committed to ensuring borrowers are receiving the best information from their servicers on their options for repayment.
Persons: servicers, CFPB, Rohit Chopra, Joe Biden's, Carolyn Fast Organizations: Service, Consumer Financial, Education Department, The Century Foundation Locations: Wall, Silicon
George Soros expects a economic crisis if Donald Trump regains the White House. He told Project Syndicate the US would face both a constitutional, and economic, crisis. The Soros Fund Management founder made his remarks in a Project Syndicate article as the 2024 election cycle gets underway and Trump faces a host of legal battles. AdvertisementAdvertisementThat's not stopped Trump from seeking the Republican nomination for a third time – something that's not sitting well with Soros. But if I am wrong, the US will face a constitutional crisis that is likely to bring on an economic crisis as well," he added.
Persons: George Soros, Donald Trump, It's, Trump's, He's, Trump, that's, Soros Organizations: Syndicate, Federal, Service, Soros Fund Management, Trump, Republican Locations: Wall, Silicon
Popeyes is coming back to China in a big way
  + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Michelle Toh | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Shares of the operator, Shanghai-based Tims China (THCH), rose 3.6% in New York following the news. The company is best known as the operator of Tim Hortons coffee shops in China but recently bought the franchise for Popeyes in the country. “We are thrilled to open our first Popeyes restaurant in China, a milestone in our longer-term strategy,” Tims China CEO Yongchen Lu said in a statement. The fried chicken chain previously operated in China under TFI Tab Food Investments, a quick service restaurant group based in Turkey. The US company signed a new partnership deal last year with private equity firm Cartesian Capital Group, the founder and top shareholder of Tims China.
Persons: Fried, Tim Hortons, Yongchen Lu, ” Tims, Tims, Lu, Burger, Joshua Kobza, Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Popeyes, TH, Subway, Restaurant Brands, TFI, Food Investments, PLKC International Locations: Hong Kong, China, Shanghai, New York, New Orleans, Popeyes, Turkey, Tims China, Macao
Analysts at JPMorgan named five global stocks in a sector they described as being in "pole position," following the Federal Reserve 's latest rate hike. We address which sectors typically lead in the aftermath of the last Fed hike, Staples and Healthcare are in pole position," the analysts led by Mislav Matejka stated in a July 31 note to investors. The bank gave French food manufacturer Danone an estimated 6% earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2024, and Swiss competitor Nestle 8% for the same period. Dutch retailer Ahold Delhaize is also a staples sector pick, with 7% estimated EPS growth for 2024. Budweiser brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev was named by JPMorgan too, with the bank estimating EPS growth of 18% for next year.
Persons: Mislav Matejka, CNBC's Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Fed, Staples, Healthcare, Danone, Nestle, Tesco, Budweiser, Anheuser, Busch InBev Locations: Swiss
Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's standing by its overweight rating on Apple after its earnings report Thursday. Rosenblatt downgrades Apple to neutral from buy Rosenblatt said Apple is sitting in a "slowdown phase." Citi upgrades Intercontinental Exchange to buy from neutral Citi said it sees "improving signals across the platform" for the exchange company. Citi opens a positive catalyst watch on Apple Citi said it sees upside ahead of the company's new iPhone unveil in September. Citi reiterates Disney as buy Citi said it's sticking with its buy rating on stock heading into earnings next week. "
Persons: Stephens, it's, Morgan Stanley, Apple, tonight's, Rosenblatt, Raymond James, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Oppenheimer, Tim Horton's, TD Cowen, Read, Truist, Lamb Weston, Stifel, Evercore Organizations: bil, Bank of America, AWS, underperform Bank of America, Apple, AMD, Citi, Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, Galactic, Virgin Galactic, Brands, Restaurant Brands, SSS, TH, BK, TD Cowen downgrades Moderna, Apple Citi, Disney, JPMorgan, Petrobras, Petrobras –, PayPal Locations: Coinbase, Burger, F1Q23
Fitch factored the January 6 riot into its decision to slash the US's credit rating, per Reuters. The ratings agency announced a surprise downgrade Tuesday, rattling stocks. Fitch cut the US's credit rating from top-tier AAA to AA+ late Tuesday, citing "a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters". Biden administration officials immediately hit back at Fitch's downgrade, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called "arbitrary and based on outdated data". Fitch is the second of the "Big Three" ratings agencies to cut the US's credit score.
Persons: Fitch, Richard Francis, Francis, Joe Biden, Fitch's, Biden, Janet Yellen Organizations: Service, Reuters, Trump, Treasury, Republicans, AAA, AA, House Republicans, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global Locations: Wall, Silicon, Washington
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