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☆ Take Five: And let there be calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - At the incredible end to the first quarter for financial markets, rattled by bank turmoil, some stability will be much hoped for in coming days. SNB chief Thomas Jordan reckons the next two weeks will be vital to securing UBS's Credit Suisse takeover. Market cap of US regional banks included in the S&P 500 regional bank index3/ DID YOU SAY AT1? Potential legal action is also possible after Swiss authorities ruled that holders of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds would get nothing in the deal. And U.S. and European banks turmoil show how quickly a crisis can surface, giving Ueda even more reason for caution.

☆ Central banks stick to rate hikes with eye on market turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Overall, 10 developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,290 basis points (bp) in this cycle to date. Reuters Graphics1) UNITED STATESThe Fed raised rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, continuing its most aggressive series of hikes since the 1980s. After setting its policy rate to 4.75%-5.00%, the Fed hinted it may soon pause rate rises. Reuters Graphics3) CANADAThe Bank of Canada on March 8 became the first major central bank to halt monetary tightening during this cycle. Reuters Graphics5) AUSTRALIAAustralia's central bank raised its key rate by a quarter point to 3.6% in March, the highest since May 2012, but hinted rate hikes may be over for now.

☆ ECB goes big on rates but bank turmoil clouds central banks' outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Overall, 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,165 basis points (bps) in this cycle to date. Reuters Graphics3) CANADAThe Bank of Canada on March 8 became the first major central bank to halt monetary tightening during this cycle. Reuters Graphics6) NORWAYNorway's central bank meets next week and is expected to raise rates by 25 bps to contain above-target inflation. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the most dovish major global central bank, maintained ultra-low interest rates at its March meeting, the final one for retiring BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The BOJ resisted changing its controversial yield curve control policy, which it uses to cap interest rates on longer-term debt.

Markets have ramped up bets on further rate increases after the ECB has already tightened monetary policy by 3 percentage points since July. ECB President Christine Lagarde reckons a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike "is very, very likely". "The ECB is prioritising getting policy rates as high as needed and nothing else is as important," Pictet Wealth Management's head of macroeconomic research Frederik Ducrozet, said. Signs of economic resilience suggest ECB growth forecasts, also out on Thursday, could be revised upwards for 2023. Falling energy prices and a stronger euro, up around 6% in trade-weighted terms from August lows, suggest headline inflation forecasts could be revised lower.

☆ Take Five: A manic March
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Another dose of hot job growth after January's payrolls increase of 517,000 trounced estimates could stoke fears of more hawkish Fed action. Powell has said the January jobs report showed why the battle against inflation will "take quite a bit of time". Powell's comments and the jobs data could help settle what the Fed does later this month. The RBA hinted at further tightening at its meeting last month, but data since then has pointed the other way. After a red-hot January rally, bonds and equities retreated in February as strong data sparked concerns about more rate hikes.

☆ Take Five: A year of war in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - The coming week will mark a year since Russia invaded Ukraine. The war goes on, but the world, and the markets, are in a very different place from last February. 1/A YEAR OF WARSenior politicians and military leaders from around the globe meet in Germany this weekend, days before the anniversary on Feb. 24 of Russia's invasion of Ukraine - Europe's biggest conflict since World War Two. Moscow is ramping up its spring offensive, while Ukraine - armed with heavier and longer-range firepower from the West - gathers strength for a counter push. On the same day as the Ukraine anniversary - Feb. 24 - Ueda should offer clues on timing when he testifies with his two would-be deputies to the lower house.

India's annual retail inflation rate (INCPIY=ECI) rose to 6.52% in January from 5.72% in December, government data showed on Monday. January's retail inflation was above the Reserve Bank of India's upper targeted limit of 6% for the first time since October and much higher than the 5.9% estimate, according to a Reuters poll of 44 analysts. Food price inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket, rose to 5.94% in January from 4.19% in December. STICKY CORE INFLATIONIndia's core inflation in January was nearly flat at 6.09% to 6.10% from last month, according to two economists. "We expect core inflation to remain elevated in Feb-March given the ongoing pass-through of higher input costs by producers," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA.

☆ Take Five: The truth about inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

That puts Tuesday's U.S. inflation data on the must-watch list. 1/ INFLATION BETSurprisingly strong January U.S. jobs data forced markets to rethink the view that interest rates will peak soon. Now, Tuesday's latest inflation figure is the next big test for where the Federal Reserve takes rates in coming months. Stock markets are confident that the Fed can bring down inflation without triggering a sharp growth slowdown. January's inflation report on Wednesday could show double-digit price rises, meaning no respite yet on the interest-rate front.

☆ Central banks hike rates again, but a pause is coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Joshua RobertsLONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Major central banks are steadily moving closer to a pause in their aggressive interest rate hiking campaigns. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England raised rates on Thursday, but markets suspect a peak is nearing. Overall, 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 2,965 basis points in this cycle to date, with Japan the holdout dove. Canada's central bank has raised its policy rate at a record pace of 425 basis points in 10 months. The central bank raised its forecast for its peak interest rate to 5.5%, up from a previous forecast of 4.1%.

Japan's 10-year bond yield, trading at 0.4%, fell on Wednesday but is not far off its highest levels since 2015. Total holdings of foreign bonds by Japanese institutional investors, excluding Japan's $1 trillion reserve portfolio, reached $3 trillion at their peak. GOING HOMEThe implications of higher inflation and a possible end to ultra-low rates are not lost on Japanese investors. Still, anticipating a shift, Japanese investors sold a net 2.1 trillion yen ($15.94 billion) of foreign bonds in December, marking a fourth straight month of selling. According to Nomura, Japanese investors have been far more active buyers of global and overseas equities than domestic stocks in the last decade.

[1/4] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Central Bank Governor Sahap Kavcioglu are pictured during a signing ceremony in Ankara, Turkey, June 8, 2022. But his drastic transformation of the economy and financial markets means such a change would bring its own uncertainties. The election will also determine what role regional military power and NATO member Turkey plays in conflicts in Ukraine, where Erdogan has helped broker talks, and in neighbour Syria. In the short-term it seems to have worked however, halting a years-long rise in Turks converting lira into dollars. Last week, Turkey had no problem borrowing $2.75 billion from international capital markets.

☆ Take Five: Much to say in Tokyo (and Davos)
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. earnings and retail sales numbers, a slew of China data and inflation readings elsewhere mean there's plenty to mull over. Recent data showed Tokyo inflation at double the central bank's target. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ HOPE AND FEARU.S. retail sales data and more earnings reports are on tap. Before then comes December's data deluge, with industrial output (CNIO=ECI), retail sales (CNRSL=ECI) and Q4 economic growth data (CNGDP=ECI) lining up to be ugly. Economists expect retail sales to have dropped 7.8% for a fourth straight monthly decline and for annual growth to finish up at a meagre 1.8%.

Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsIn addition, Loo said a speedy recovery is also hampered by shifts in household liquidity positions over the course of the pandemic. "Unlike the outright cash payoff schemes seen in Hong Kong and Singapore that go some way in supporting household spending, China's COVID-relief programmes have instead focused predominantly on supporting businesses affected by lockdowns," she said. An official factory activity survey showed a sub-index of new export orders has remained in contraction territory for 20 consecutive months. But a recovery in the country's embattled property market could take much longer. Graphics by Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima Talwani and Sumanta Sen; Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Kevin Yao; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/3] Donna Heinel (L), former associate athletic director at the University of Southern California (USC) facing charges in a nationwide college admissions cheating scheme, leaves the federal courthouse in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., March 25, 2019. Donna Heinel, the school's former senior associate athletic director, was sentenced by U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani in Boston for helping get about two dozen students admitted as fake athletic recruits in exchange for money. Prosecutors said Heinel also personally pocketed $160,000 after she and Singer entered into "sham" consulting agreement. She has agreed to forfeit that money, though defense lawyer Nina Marino said, adding Heinel did not view it as a bribe at the time. Reporting by Nate Raymond in Boston; Editing by Aurora EllisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ China holds benchmark lending rates for 4th consecutive month
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI, Dec 20 (Reuters) - China kept benchmark lending interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month on Tuesday, matching the forecasts of most market watchers who nevertheless expect further monetary easing to prop up a slowing economy. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was left at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR was held at 4.30%. Market watchers regard MLF announcements as guides to any LPR changes. Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at ANZ, said with rates unchanged, household spending would continue without any increase in disposable income. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.

Exports, which constitute about 22% of the industry, have fallen for five months in a row - declining over 15% year-on-year in November to $3.1 billion. Domestic sales are sluggish despite strong growth in the overall economy because of high costs and cheap imported garments, manufacturers say. Reuters GraphicsIn the textile industry, manufacturers say higher domestic cotton prices and other costs have hit profit margins, while overseas orders for next summer are down by about one-third and domestic demand remains weak. "The government needs to scrap the 11% import duty on cotton so local textile mills can have a level playing field," Ganatra said. Reuters GraphicsFEAR OF JOB CUTSMany textile manufacturers, who have frozen hiring of workers, have warned of jobs cuts if the government fails to provide relief soon.

☆ Central banks ramp up rates again but the pace slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Central banks in Britain, Norway, Switzerland, the euro zone and the United States have all raised interest rates this week. The central bank raised its forecast for its peak interest rate to 5.5%, up from a previous forecast of 4.1%. Money markets moved after the statement to forecast UK interest rates will top out at around 4.5% in August. Markets anticipate an 80% chance of a 50 bps hike when the Riksbank meets next in February. But market players do not expect any significant change from the world's lone major central bank dove.

Headline inflation slowed in November for the first time in 1-1/2 years, to 10%, raising hopes that sky-high price growth has passed. ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely be careful about calling a peak after last year's "big mistake" of insisting surging prices were "transitory," said Pictet's Ducrozet. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reckons wages would be a "primary driver" of price inflation even after energy price shocks fade. Closely-watched business activity data points to a mild recession and latest forecasts should show how the ECB views the coming slowdown. Lane believes record price growth will start to subside next year.

NEW DELHI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - India posted annual economic growth of 6.3% in its July-September quarter, less than half the 13.5% growth in the previous three months as distortions caused by COVID-19 lockdowns faded in Asia's third-largest economy. Economists warned, however, that growth momentum may ease in the December quarter due to higher interest rates and slowing exports. "Even as domestic growth drivers on services side continue to remain robust, weakening global demand amid tightening financial conditions remains the key risk for growth outlook for India," said Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Capital. Slowing global growth has also started to hurt exports, which fell 17% over a year ago in October. "Services on the supply side and investments in the demand side would continue to be the main drivers of growth," said Sujan Hazra, chief economist at Anand Rathi.

☆ China leaves lending benchmarks unchanged for 3rd straight month in Nov
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SHANGHAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the third straight month on Monday, as a weaker yuan and persistent capital outflows continued to limit Beijing's ability to ease monetary conditions to support the economy. As expected, the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.30%. The latest official data showed that overseas investors had sold their holdings of China's onshore bonds for a ninth straight month in October, the longest streak of outflows on record. "We think there's probability to lower the 5-year LPR in December due to the downturn in the property market," said Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at ANZ. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.

☆ Take Five: Black Friday test
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/GOING SHOPPINGWith concerns that the U.S. economy may be on the verge of a recession, a key test of consumer demand arrives on Nov. 25, when retailers launch "Black Friday" sales - a day traditionally marked by long lines of shoppers eager to pounce on discounts. Soaring inflation and surging interest rates could test buying appetite. The dollar index, meanwhile, peaked at a 20-year high of 114.78 in September and has been falling ever since. Reuters Graphics3/BLEAK OUT THEREThe International Monetary Fund says the global economic outlook is even gloomier than it was a month ago. Preliminary readings of business activity in November from a number of economies could answer the question in the coming days.

BEIJING/HONG KONG, Nov 18 (Reuters) - A slew of recent supportive measures will bring China's cash-strapped property developers much needed relief, but a full recovery of the sector will be hobbled by increasingly elusive buyers, say bankers, developers and analysts. "These policies will have little lasting effect and the property prices will not go up significantly," said Jack Yang, an engineer in Beijing, noting "future income" had become a key concern for homebuyers. Despite the recent liquidity-boosting measures, some bankers say developers continue to face credit risks given the uncertain outlook. According to UBS, Chinese banks have roughly 88 trillion yuan ($12.43 trillion) worth of exposure to the property sector. It estimates the property sector downturn will cost the banking system up to 1.4-1.5 trillion yuan in the next few years, mainly from potential losses in banks' unsecured property development loans, bonds, and non-standard assets.

☆ Take Five: A UK budget and trouble in crypto land
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The long-awaited UK fiscal plan is (almost) here and after the ructions unleashed by September's mini-budget, markets are paying close attention. UK markets have recouped most of the maxi-losses from the mini-budget, but the outlook is grim. Reuters Graphics2/ CRYPTO CHAOSThe crypto world has been thrown into fresh chaos by a meltdown at FTX. Big banks too are starting to pare back staffing levels. September data showed a measure of underlying retail sales rising thanks to strong wage gains and savings, even as the broader number came in flat.

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